Monday, November 22, 2010
Time for course correction
As usual, each side is blaming the other for the incident. Anything new in that? Not really. The blame-game has been going on for a while now. Instead of trying to figure out who is at fault, it would be helpful if we spent our time and energy trying to understand why something as serious as this happened inside the parliament. It happened for a simple reason. And the reason is that as a nation, we allow politicians to run the country by cutting deals in the name of consensus. Nobody except the dealmakers actually know the terms and conditions of the deals. So, it is very easy for them to lie about them later. What makes this deal-based process even more complicated is that, for these dealmakers, pleasing their masters (Chinese for the Maoists and Indians for the current coalition members) is much more important and lies at the heart of anything they do or agree to than serving the nation’s interest and fulfilling people’s expectations.
Blaming the Maoists for insincerity at this point in time is completely absurd and unintelligent. The Maoists have been inconsistently consistent throughout about their motive behind joining the hands with the political parties. They wanted to use the opportunity to achieve their goal of establishing the dictatorship of the proletariat. The rationalization of the Maoists’ intent to come overground came from the very politicians that now grouch about the Maoist motives, pundits who change their color faster than chameleons to remain politically-relevant and human right activists that are now nowhere to be seen when a people’s representative is manhandled in broad light inside the parliament. Hence, the wound that politicians of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML complain about is self-inflicted. The sooner they learn to live with it, the better off they will be.
The Maoists are now one of the dominant players of Nepali politics and there is logic to what they do. Every move of theirs is well-calculated and is meant to serve their political agenda. With India against their quest for power, the Maoists have no choice but to tilt the domestic political balance by coercing their political opponents. They want the opponents to be perceived as feeble and power-hungry who will eventually succumb to their bullying tactics. And there is precedence to what they believe in. On the other side, there is no political preparation to tackle the Maoists. All they have is the same old slogan of how big a threat the Maoists are for democracy, which gives them an opportunity to cash in on India’s soured relationship with the Maoists, both of which will not take the coalition very far.
Putting the blame on the Maoists will not serve any purpose when it comes to correcting the course that they are in. The NC and the UML should prove to the people, which they have not done so far, that they can effectively govern the nation and meet people’s expectations. The state’s reach has been shrinking with each passing day. Regurgitation of the same old stale slogan of democracy being in danger from the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula, who not very long ago used every argument that they could think of to justify how bringing the Maoists overground was good for democracy, makes the case that the coalition is trying to make against the Maoists look malicious and empty.
The ongoing small-scale confrontation between the major partners of the coalition and the Maoists will get bigger and more frequent in the days to come. This is just the beginning. The NC, with its new president, can be a game changer if it dares to get away from the influence of the likes of Sitaula that failed miserably to correctly assess the Maoists’ motives. It is time to play the game with the Maoists the way they do. Backdoor dealings with them should be completely stopped. Things as important as budget should be made public with or without the Maoist support. If they oppose, they are the ones that will be seen as obstructionist, and if they get physical, they should end up behind bars. Appeasing the Maoists so far has not gotten the nation anywhere, has it? It is high time that they be held accountable for their acts.
The moving of the political process forward should be done smartly. Staying put in a futile prime ministerial election process makes the NC look like a club of politically-immature jokers. Its obsession with the prime ministership is pushing Jhala Nath Khanal and his fellow comrades closer to Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Helping the UML retain its political base is as important as maintaining its own political space for the NC. The UML’s loss is the Maoists party´s gain. Hence, letting Khanal become the prime minister is politically more profitable for the NC than alienating him by endlessly bidding for Ram Chandra Poudel. Even if Poudel became the prime minister, there will absolutely nothing in this lame duck environment for him to achieve that will change the NC’s face and fate. So, why remain obsessed? Cut your losses by not appearing insensitive to Khanal’s desperation to become the prime minister.
Banking on India’s support and regurgitation of democracy-in-peril rhetoric may work for a while and help the coalition stay put in power for some time, but with China’s support, the Maoist party is hell-bent on tipping the balance. If and when the balance tips, India will have no choice but to reengage with the Maoists. Aung San Suu Kyi received Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding in 1993 from the Indian government, but when the Indian government later on realized that the Burmese junta was not going to release Suu Kyi anytime soon, it started reengaging with the junta that put her under house arrest. Than Swe’s recent gala reception in India and the endless case made by India’s foreign policy experts, including Shyam Saran, about the necessity of becoming pragmatic when it came to dealing with Myanmar’s junta is an example of how far the Indian pendulum can swing with change in domestic political situation. Endless complaints about the Maoists’ anti-democratic acts have not made them change their ways, so it is time you change your ways and do things differently Mr Sushil Koirala. By opting for that, you would be doing a huge both to your party as well as the nation.
Friday, December 14, 2007
The Growing Crisis
The Maoists have killed teachers, journalists, and harassed doctors. But by physically assaulting a foreign national, they have not only ashamed themselves but also dented nation's image. When will the Maoists come to their senses? I guess it is not the right question to ask. Will they ever come to senses, unless they are forced to?
The government is trying to tighten the screw on rebels in the tarai while providing a free pass to the Maoists to engage in criminal activities. This strategy will eventually backfire. It will make easier for the rebel groups in the tarai to manipulate young unemployed youths in the name of ethnic discrimination. If the government cannot ruffle Puspa Kamal Dahal's feathers, it should not set a dangerous precedence of selective justice by targeting Madhesi rebels.
There is no difference whatsoever between Puspa Kamal Dahal and Nagendra Paswan's men. They are all engaged in criminal and anti-social activities. They have blood of innocent people stained in their hands.
The current government has completely failed to maintain law-and-order in the country. One thing that the current government is good at is -- provide compensation to the victims of Maoist crimes. If the prime minister or the home minister had to pay compensation from their pockets, then they would feel the heat. To give away taxpayers' hard-earned money does not seem to bother them a bit. This is height of irresponsibility and unaccountability.
If the Maoists are responsible for committing crimes, the current government is responsible for turning a blind eye on their criminal activities. Needles to say, both are at fault. In order to make the Maoists more responsible, the government should deduct the amount handed over to the victims' family from the money that the Maoists receive for their men confined in the camps. Let them feel the heat too. Hit them where it hurts most.
Of late, it has become evident that the Maoist leadership is not only power hungry but also hungry for money. Thousands of innocent civilians that were lured and registered as combatants have deserted the UN-administered camps, but the Maoist leadership is yet to report the cases to the government and reject payments made to support them. They blame the mainstream political parties for corruption and mismanagement but fail to see how mismanaged and corrupt their own party is. Collecting payments on behalf of non-existent combatants is a fraud in broad daylight.
It is understandable that the Maoists would not budge about it because they are financially benefiting from it. But why are UNMIN and the government silent on this issue? Neither UNMIN has shown any decency and reported the matter to the government nor has the government deemed it necessary to become fiscally responsible and stopped the payment even after media has reported it. When will the people in the corridors of power and those appeasing them to bury their own incompetence be held responsible for their screw ups?
With each passing day, things are becoming clearer: (1) The Seven Party Alliance (SPA) wants to remain in power forever in the name of peace process (2) India, after having burnt it fingers in its mission of buying unequivocal and everlasting Maoist support, now wants to teach them a lesson by strengthening rebels outfit in the tarai (3) the Maoists do not want peace and elections because of the plummeting public support. If there is peace, and free and fair elections are held, the Maoist leadership knows it very well that its bargaining power will take a nosedive. For the Maoists, chaos is profitable. It has both financial and political pay-offs.
Another thing that has become evident from the Maoists' never ending experiment is that they know what they want (capture the power and hang in there), but they don't know how to get there. That's the reason why they are engaged in never ending errant experimentation of all kinds.
The Nepalis are now in a far worse situation than they were during the Maoist insurgency. Then, we had one problem -- the Maoist insurgency. But we have uncountable groups with various motives and agendas. They are used and abused by various unseen forces to gain control. Caught in the middle is the unelected government that neither has the required mandate to force its will on people, nor has any strategy to solve the problems. What an ugly situation to be in.
India by forcing the SPA to join hands with the Maoists has created more problems than it actually had. While Nepal is failing, India wants to redefine its success. After the Maoists stopped dancing to the Indian tune, India now, wants to tighten its grip on Nepal and teach the Maoists a lesson by strengthening the rebel outfits in the tarai. India might have a last laugh by wiping out the Maoists in the tarai, but the Nepalis do not have anything to cheer about. It might be a good strategy from India's point of view, but when it comes to the people of Nepal, India will be simply replacing one devil with another. Creation of warlords has never brought peace and strengthened democracy anywhere.
With each passing day, not only our freedom and prosperity, but also our sovereignty is at stake. How much India values our sovereignty is crystal clear from its recent request to maintain a status-quo on encroachment of the Nepali soil at Susta.
Let us get realistic for a second, shall we? Had King Gyanendra agreed to dance to Indian tune like Jigme in Bhutan, Gayyoom in the Maldives, and General Than Shwe in Burma, what would have been the fate of SPA politicians? Where would they be now?
India's selfless desire towards establishing peace and stable democracy in Nepal is not as selfless as India would like it. It cares more about its grips on Nepal than anything else. It wants to administer proxy rule in Nepal through the likes of Dasho Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck, Gayyoom in the Maldives. What will it take us to realize this fact?
Ram Raja Prasad Singh has already revealed India's role in fueling the ongoing crisis in the tarai. If India really wanted peace in Nepal and respected its sovereignty, it would not deploy its intelligence agency to bring together all the rebel groups operating in the tarai and have a meeting with them in Indian soil. It would not have engaged itself in encroachment of Nepali soil. It would rather help negotiate a settlement between the rebels and the Nepali government and returned encroached soil even before Nepal approached for it.
The problem with our political leaders is that they don't believe what they don't want to believe. Ignorance is bliss and this adage applies very well to beleaguered politicians who want to conveniently ignore ground realities as long as they can. The self-esteem of the political leadership has sunk so low that it is hard to believe that the current leadership will be able to navigate the nation towards stable liberal democracy.
So far both optimists and pessimists have been proved wrong. Neither peace nor complete political paralysis has resulted. Political crises are yet to be equated with disaster. However, if the current political deadlock and insincerity among the political leadership persists, the nation will plunge into a deep political and social crisis. Nepal will disintegrate internally if the inherent malaise is not removed.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Freedom to be unaccountable
Surprisingly, every institution operating within the geographical boundary of Nepal wants more power and a greater role for themselves. Forget about the political parties that are fighting for themselves rather than poor Nepali citizen for a second, UNMIN too is demanding a greater role now. UNMIN now wants to get involved in what Martin calls as a "security sector reform." Forgetting UNMIN's dismal performance in "insecurity sector reform" (harvesting weapons from the Maoists and getting the real guerillas inside the camp), Martin now wants venture in another arena. What a joke!
By housing underage children and letting the real guerillas that wreaked havoc on peace and security of the nation off the hook, Martin's UNMIN has not only bled the state exchequer but also seriously weakened the security situation. So, the time has come to remind Martin that he should be focusing on the job at hand and execute it satisfactorily rather than seeking a greater role. He got to be told -- do what you are supposed to do well first. It does not make any sense to give additional responsibilities to those who perform a second class job.
As far as political parties are concerned, they are still busy engaging themselves in deal-based politics. The Nepali Congress (NC) longs for bygone era whereby it enjoyed absolute majority and did much less than what it actually could do to change the face of this hungry nation.
During the NC's rule, while the party leaders were getting millionaires by abusing power, rural populace in hinterland were getting brainwashed for armed struggle. NC's top brass didn't care about either of those. NC's top brass, most of who grew up and got wiser reading "Hindustan times" and "Dainik Jagaran" newspapers in Banaras might have thought that, with newfound money and muscle power, like in India, they would remain unchallenged forever. Needless to say, they cared least about the ideological decay.
In the changed political context, the NC, as an institution has nothing new to offer. It neither has enough new faces that can stand up and vouch for social democratic values and pluralism, nor can it utilize the same old tainted faces that abused the power to enrich themselves to energize the democratic base.
The only card that the NC has and which might work well in its favor is, standing up against the political left's grand design to choke people's freedom. There are millions in Nepal that are nervous about the political left's grand design to laden people's democracy.
So, the NC still has a space to operate and a chance to regain its past glory and popular backing. The rank-and-files within the NC should empathize with the suffering of the people rather than surrendering its political space forever for the sake of coalition. The likes of Krishna Sitaula within the NC are playing the politics of fear to bolster their own political footings at the cost of ideology and democracy. They are yet to realize that there is no alternative to the politics of ideology based struggle.
The CPN (Maoist) had a perfect opportunity to become a dominant player in the national politics, which they completely blew off. People had already seen and become fed up off the NC and the UML's misrule. The enormous success that the Maoists achieved in their early days of struggle was partly because the major political parties had failed to fulfill people's aspirations. People wanted a change and the Maoists had to some extent convinced people that they are for a change. The blunder that the Maoists made was that they tried replicating the same formula that Mao had experimented half a century ago even after signing the 12-point agreement. What they failed to understand is that, out of many things, the success of political formula is contingent upon time and space.
There was no need for converting People's Liberation Army (PLA) into a Young Communist League (YCL) and trying to do what Mao did half a century ago after the safe landing. This is mainly because, in the current geopolitical context, you cannot rule by threatening and discouraging people.
Forget about YCL, even the entire PLA will not be able to capture the power and hang in there forever. It is simply not feasible. So, it was a gross miscalculation on the part of the Maoist leaders to try to replicate the same tactics adopted by Mao in China, where people had no clue about democracy and democratic rights unlike in the modern day Nepal. All it needed was, tongue of the UML, which can rotate 360 degrees and adherence to democratic principles. Sooner or later, it would have come to come the power. It took Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) almost 20 years to come to capture power in Delhi. In politics, patience pays off.
For Prachanda and Babu Ram Bhattarai, the ongoing struggle might be an ideological one, but there are tons in their party, for whom, insurgency is a business opportunity. They virtually had nothing to begin with but have every thing -- muscle power and money now. For the sake of their newfound status and money, they will do everything to prolong the war. For them, war and insecurity has economic incentives. Plus, their families are comparatively safe. Why would they care about the safety of others and over all economic progress of the nation, which in their eyes is, run by feudal elites?
Time has come to do a real cost benefit analysis. Is it worth, or for that matter even possible, to keep the dreams of capturing the state alive among the cadres when the reality is that, an ambassador of a neighboring country can make you all crawl to his office to listen to his dictates?
The UML is the one that is in the most awkward position and will be the biggest loser if it doesn't mend its ways. By succumbing to the pressure of extreme left leaning ideologues within the party and tailgating the Maoists, the UML is losing both its support at home and credibility abroad. Why should UML's cadres remain on board when there is no difference between their party and the Maoist party? Sooner or later, they will join the one that is enjoying the limelight rather than guarding a sinking ship. From the stand point of communist ideologues, it makes no sense. Thus, by adhering to the politics of fence-sitting, the UML is doing a disservice to itself and its cadres. It should move away from a politics of fence-sitting to one of active political engagement if it wants to protect its credibility and further erosion of its political base.
Last but not the least, the problem lies within us and we should seek solution from within. The crux of problem is that, political parties want to enjoy power without being held responsible to the constituents. Surprisingly, they want to remain in power forever without seeking people's mandate. There is very little that foreigners on ground and consultants that charge hefty amount can do when it comes to correcting such self-serving behavior of Nepali politicians. Unless the freedom to be irresponsible and unaccountable is curbed, the ongoing mess will continue in some form or the other. Does anyone have a better idea on how to curb the existing irresponsibility and unaccountability amongst the Nepali politicians?
Saturday, August 18, 2007
When clubs become trumps
By Dr Hari Bansha Dulal & Stefano Foa
Simmering ethnic dissent, the erratic and disruptive activities of Youth Communist League, and increasing uncertainty about the constituent assembly elections, are raising justified fears for the future of Nepal. Should November elections be postponed again, both the current government and the interim parliament will face a dangerous legitimacy crisis. The coalition may be able to muddle through for a while. After that, nothing should be excluded.
One scenario that is already being discussed is a resumption of the Maoist insurgency, led by dissident factions in the party leadership. The mandate of the 2006 April revolution was to establish peace through elections, by encouraging warring parties to lay down their arms, replace the exchange of bullets for ballots, and join their forces under a unified military command. Once the Maoist cadres realize the vote is cancelled for the second time, their dreams of joining the Nepali Army will be shattered. Several of their factions are ready to resume the fight.
A further possibility is that of direct military stewardship over the political process. Until now, the Nepali military has largely limited itself to its 'praetorian' role - that is, as protector of the monarch - but now the king is a mere ceremonial accessory. This makes the army itself the government of last resort. In this respect Nepal could very easily follow the example of modern Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand, where sporadic military guardianship has become the norm, and their experience suggests that once the army is politically engaged, it tends to retain an indefinite presence.
So under what circumstances do military interventions take place, and is Nepal a candidate?
Samuel Huntington, the Harvard political scientist, has distinguished between three types of military coup. The first is the 'breakthrough coup', when a revolutionary army displaces a traditional monarchy. This occurred in a number of decolonized countries during the 1950s, such as Egypt or Libya, but has since been comparatively rare.
The second kind is the 'veto coup', when the military takes power from a popular, democratically elected government. This has frequently been the case in Latin America - the most recent attempt being the failed putsch against Chavez in 2002 - but is less common in regions which lack a tradition of class politics, and unknown in South Asia.
Finally, there is the 'guardian coup', whereby the military steps in with the goal of restoring public order, reducing corruption, or fighting insurgents. This is by far the most common form of military intervention, and that familiar to the Indian subcontinent. And it is the prospect that faces Nepal, if the current transition process fails.
A number of factors expose Nepal to this possibility. First, whereas in veto coups the military steps in because citizens are 'excessively' involved in politics, guardian coups are preceded by civilian disillusionment and withdrawal from political life. In Pakistan, for example, the inter-party feuding, corruption, economic stagnation, and insecurity of Bhutto and Sharif years had already led to widespread political disengagement once Musharraf assumed power in 1999.
In 2001, according to data collected by the World Values Surveys, a global study of social attitudes and behavior, only 13 percent of Pakistanis said they had or would be willing to take part in a demonstration for a cause they believed in, compared to 52 percent of Indians.
In Bangladesh, the 'musical chair' politics of Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina Wajed have led to a similar sense of political disengagement, and most felt only weary fatigue when emergency law was declared earlier this year. After seventeen years of turmoil, the Nepalis too, are experiencing transition fatigue.
According to a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, almost two-thirds of Nepalis said they would most prefer a strong leader who did not have to bother with parliament or elections. The civic foundations for democratic transition have worn dangerously thin.
Second, guardian coups are far more likely when ethnic fragmentation and violence have made consensus impossible between electoral blocs, and the parties they support.
In both Pakistan and Bangladesh, inter-group relations deteriorated steadily in the period preceding military intervention, as elected politicians swam the tide of ethnic and religious factionalism. As evidence of this steady drift, in Bangladesh, the proportion of those polled would refuse to have neighbors 'of another race' grew from 17 percent in 1996 to 28 percent in 2002, while the proportion refusing to have those 'of another religion' jumped from 13 to 34 percent.
Sectarian violence was one of the main factors that the Bangladeshi military used to justify their recent takeover. Alas, Nepal may be on much the same trajectory. 18 percent of Nepalis now claim they would not accept a neighbor of another race, and a fifth would refuse a neighbor of another religion, according to data collected recently on behalf of Civicus, the international civil society network.
This combination of group-mobilized violence and civic withdrawal justify and make possible the guardian coup. Pakistan and Bangladesh are cases in point, and Nepal is indeed at risk of joining them. The long-term consequences of this would be grave. It is unlikely the military would extract itself from politics for a generation or more.
So what is to be done to avoid this outcome?
First, our representatives must learn to hang together, if they are not to hang separately. In South Asia politicians frequently talk about the need for democracy when they are out of power, yet once back in office 'play to the gallery' by indulging in partisan politics, thereby neglecting the process of consensus building.
As the Nepalis have seen only too clearly, this not only deepens social cleavages, but it erodes the legitimacy of the democratic process. India managed to avoid this fate by achieving democratic consolidation under a single dominant party, but Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal have now lost that possibility. So our parties must learn to govern together, if they are to govern at all.
Second, the rule of law must be restored. Nobody wishes to be governed militarily, but they do wish to be governed. The most basic function of the state is the protection of life and land, and when civilian leaders cannot ensure due process, the army becomes the de facto government of last resort.
Third, civilian power must be wielded legitimately. Above all, that means having free and fair elections, capable of producing viable governing coalitions. For that to occur in Nepal, the November elections for the constituent assembly must take place, and they must produce credible results. Should these elections be cancelled, or the polls become marred by violence and intimidation, then the transition risks derailing and no further possibility can be ruled out.
That includes some form of military intervention. For as English philosopher Thomas Hobbes wrote many centuries ago, in the game of politics, when nothing else is turned up, clubs are trumps.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Social capital, Law and Democracy
Violence breeds violence. In Nepal, the seeds of violence were sown in February 1996 when CPN (Maoist) carried out simultaneous raids on government offices, police posts, and private businesses. Since then, such violent behavior has become ingrained in the Nepali society. What was started by the Maoist insurgents has now sprouted across several groups, some with separatist agendas, and others simply taking advantage of the breakdown in the rule of law to make a fast buck.
Like leaders in many developing countries, the Nepali political elite has spent this time selling dreams of imminent prosperity to a largely illiterate Nepali populace, while ignoring the mounting security dilemma.
While lawlessness continues, politicians talk as if a peaceful democratic transition can be taken for granted. But it cannot. The fact is that most countries fail during their first attempt to establish democracy. This is just as true in Europe - where fledgling democracies collapsed in France, Italy, Germany and Spain - as it has been, since the 1950s, in wave after wave of decolonized nations in Africa and the Middle East. The few developing nations, such as India or Botswana, that have maintained some degree of democratic continuity from the start, are the exceptions and not the rule.
Why do some regimes undergo successful transition, while others collapse into anarchy and despotism - and what lessons can this yield for Nepal?
During periods of democratic transition, politicians tend to overstate their positive impact in the short-term, while underestimating or ignoring the longer-term negative consequences that their actions - or inactions - can have.
First among these is the effect that the failure to combat lawlessness and instability has in undermining a country's stock of 'social' capital - that is, the relations of inter-group solidarity and cohesion which allow negotiation, compromise, and agreement between opposing factions. In Nepal, the consequence of the failure to stem the vortex of violence and lawlessness is that the country is fragmenting into an archipelago of competing power factions, and unless these centrifugal forces are contained, the country will drift further and further from a social compact.
Second, violence and insecurity also erode other forms of social capital which are essential for making democracy work. Chief among these is the maintenance of a healthy civil society, in the form of the newspapers, professional associations, women's groups, and community forums. Such associations are essential in enabling citizens are able to formulate their interests, debate policy, and place pressure on local representatives to deliver better services and more accountable governance.
Robert Putnam's classic 1993 study on civic involvement in Italy showed that such networks are critical in ensuring effective local governance and economic development, and more recently, further studies by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel have confirmed this view. Across the world, they find that countries which in the early 1990s began their democratization process with a civic culture of independence and citizen activism have had a greater success in maintaining effective and accountable institutions.
On the other hand, where civil society has been passive or cowed, the potential for regression toward despotic and unaccountable rule is strong. In Nepal, widespread violence and intimidation are producing exactly this result, as citizens retreat behind closed doors and the possibility of a public space is being eroded.
Unfortunately, the Maoists do not want a healthy civil society, as they know that independent groups based upon horizontal association would be a threat to the kind of authoritarian regime they envisage. Were farmers, minorities, tradesmen, and professionals able independently to articulate their interests and engage through the democratic process, the chances of garnering support for a universal proletarian state would become slim.
Yet, the longer the lawlessness persists, the more difficult will it become to restore a culture of fairness and respect for the law. Not long ago, Nepal was known as a peaceful land, widely touted as Switzerland of Asia. Today, this no longer rings true. According to data from the World Health Organization, by 2002 the homicide rate in Nepal had already reached 15 per 100,000 - twice the rate in Bangladesh, three times the rate in India, and five times that of China. If deaths from conflict were also included, the figure would rise to almost 20 per 100,000. This not only makes Nepal among the most violent societies in Asia, but among the most dangerous in the entire world.
Were order restored now, the country could return somewhat to the safety and security of bygone years, but the longer the anarchy continues, the more difficult will such a recovery become. An alarming precedent in this regard has already been set by Cambodia, a country whose social fabric has since the 1970s been torn asunder by insurgency and political stagnation. Their conflict has left families estranged, villages uprooted, and orphans on the streets. In Cambodia today, the Maoists may be gone and a veneer of political stability may have been restored. Yet violence and criminality have become engrained within the culture. Weapons and explosives are widely available, and at 17 per 100,000 this once peaceful land has among the highest homicide rates in Asia.
Nepal is a country once rich in bonds of trust, solidarity, and mutual support. These are now being eroded. If the land is to achieve both development and democracy, it cannot wait for solutions to arrive. Just like economic capital, 'social capital' is a resource that takes centuries to accumulate, but only a decade to destroy. The loss can be stopped now, but critical toward doing so is the restoration of the rule of law. Once protection is provided to all groups in society, demands for separatism will wane. Once violations of life and liberty are reprimanded, the culture of impunity will disappear. Once citizens are able to associate freely and without fear of intimidation, the prospect of a healthy civic life will be restored. But action must be taken now. The longer the social fabric is worn away, the more difficult will it be to sew together again.
Sunday, April 1, 2007
What next?
Finally, the one that caused everyone to raise their eyebrows was the carnage in Gaur where the instigation of MPRF's men by the YCL cadres took an ugly turn. Twenty-nine YCL cadres were mercilessly slaughtered in cold blood and many more were injured by MPRF's cadres.
The Maoist arrogance, MPRF's political shortsightedness and inability to keep protests peaceful, and the government's inability to effectively deal with the Maoists and address the grievances of ethnic groups has been slowly pushing the country into the vortex of a full-blown civil war. The April revolution had provided a perfect platform for the re-establishment of peace and democracy. But inability on the part of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) to effectively handle the situation and manage people's aspirations and the Maoist insincerity towards peace and democracy has left a million dreams lie shattered.
It is time to analyze what went wrong, who are the culprits, and what can and needs to be done to bring the country back onto the track. It is time to ask an indelible question: Why have the so-called leaders failed, over and again? Are we better off now than when the Maoists were in the jungles? Has the government's endless concessions to the Maoists contributed to anything other than increased insecurity, chaos, and blurred future prospects?
The glib idea held by SPA that providing political power will automatically lead to “moderation” of the Maoists is the main culprit behind the present mess. What the political leaders at the helm of the affairs have failed to realize is that political power only begets the desires of the radicals to perpetuate and aggrandize power and does not contribute towards “moderation.” Bringing the radicals to the helms of power has never resulted in moderation. It simply does not work. On the contrary, after coming to power, they get even more “strong headed” and rhetorical.
After coming to power, Hitler did not budge an inch from what he had set down in Mein Kampf , nor did Mussolini disband the Fascists and stop killing his political opponents.
Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini's list of opponents that were to be silenced kept getting larger and bigger after he came to power in 1979. Even after being in power for four decades, the moderation of Fidel Castro never happened; he never toned down. The moderation of Kim Jong Il of North Korea and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela doesn't appear realistic either.
There is a colossal failure of intellect, effort, and imagination on the part of SPA. In order to understand the Maoist totalitarian aspirations, it takes an effort of imagination. It is necessary to put one's self inside the Maoist minds, to see things as they see them, to understand their beliefs, strategy, and actions.
However, it is not an easy task to analyze another's mind when it is so fundamentally different from one's own. It takes effort and the bitter truth is that the SPA leaders never made an effort to understand the Maoist beliefs, strategy, and actions. Had they made an effort to understand the Maoist traits, they would have understood what the Maoists are up to and learnt how to deal with them effectively. They would not have endlessly seceded to the Maoist demands and turned a blind eye to their atrocities.
Out of many mistakes, one of the major mistakes that the SPA government has been making is that it sees the ongoing ethnic movement through the lens of CPN (Maoist). Prime Minister Koirala, whose popularity skyrocketed during and after the April revolution, runs a risk of losing his newfound popularity if he does not desist from watching the ethnic movement through the Maoist prism. The delay in solving the ethnic movement will have far reaching repercussions.
The Gaur carnage should serve as an eye-opener, both to the government and the Maoists. Prachanda and his fellow ideologues might have never imagined that the people, whom they thought to be oppressed, could rise so quickly and counter the Maoist fiefdom by gunning down their fellowmen. It is absolutely understandable; however, the right to pick up guns is not Prachanda's or for that matter, the Maoist rebels' private domain. Nobody should be condoning the violence, but now, it appears that the only way to challenge the Maoist fiefdom is through the use of force, as the government has failed miserably to enforce law and order and provide ample security to its citizens.
The government has failed to take actions against the Maoists that have flouted the law and provide security to its citizens. The perpetrators of Lahan's killing, Nepalganj's riot, and Birtamod's inhuman acts are still at large. The government and the so-called human rights activists prefer to remain silent when the rights of ordinary citizens are infringed by the Maoist rebels. Why are the human rights of the YCL members killed in Rautahat more precious than the innocent Madhesi killed in Lahan, scores of Madhesis intimidated and harassed in Nepalganj, and the royalists subjected to the inhuman treatment at the hands of YCL cadre in Birtamod?
Unlike most human rights activists in Nepal, who are leftist ideologues and value human rights of leftists to be more precious than those in the center and the right, the government should get over the biases and strive towards protecting the rights to the life and liberty of all citizens, irrespective of their political ideology and affiliations.
As far as Gaur's carnage is concerned, before jumping to hasty conclusions, it is necessary to put things in context. What options did the MPRF cadres have at that point in time, when the YCL members showed up to foil their mass meeting? They basically had two options: (a) be humiliated and leave the ground for the YCL members (b) retaliate and teach the YCL members a lesson, so that from next time onwards they would learn to respect others' rights to protest. The royalists' fate in Birtamod, Jhapa has already taught the MPRF and other groups a good lesson on what happens if you appear weak. The only mistake the MPRF members committed in this case was that they went much farther than just teaching the YCL cadres a good lesson. The inhumane killings of the rowdy YCL cadres that occurred in Gaur were certainly a deplorable act and a colossal failure on part of MPRF to keep the protests peaceful.
If the sister organizations of the Maoists such as YCL that are working towards the establishment of a totalitarian regime are not sufficiently opposed, from within and outside the country, they will proceed to do exactly what they believe in. The followers of totalitarian regimes are brainwashed ideologues that see things only in black and white. For them, the grey area does not exist.
According to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, “You cannot teach people to hate and ask them to practice peace.” These ideologues have been taught to hate people that do not share their ideology and it is impossible to discipline them without using some kind of force or through the strict rule of law. As the latter is virtually non-existent in present-day Nepal, other groups might soon run out of options to protect themselves and their rights and be forced to follow the retaliatory path adopted by MPRF, unless the government acts strongly and dares to punish the Maoists for their atrocities. If the law and order situation is not improved and the YCL cadres engaged in infringing on the rights of others are not punished, the Gaur-type carnage may occur frequently.
The perpetrators of not only the Gaur carnage, but also of the Lahan and Birtamod incidents and riots of Nepalganj, should be brought to justice. The SPA government that has a tendency of falling into the Maoist spell should not get charmed this time around and commit the mistake of outlawing MPRF. If MPRF is outlawed, as suggested by Prachanda, it will open the door for a full-fledged civil war and turn Nepal into a killing field. Are we ready for a civil war?
Thursday, March 15, 2007
New Nepal: Rhetoric versus reality
The dark side of the ongoing ethnic tension is that some politicians whose careers have been in the doldrums are attempting a fresh return by playing the ethnic card। The trend of armed rebellion set out by Prachanda and Baburam has been used as a blueprint by many whose political stature has been cut short, either due to the loss of public support or because of their clout within their own political parties. It has become a standard practice to follow an aggressive and violent means in the name of "social change" when the career of a politician reaches an absolute dead end.
Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai resorted to using guns when they perceived that their party was a "sinking ship।" After the Election Commission officially recognized Nirmal Lama's less radical faction as legitimate United People's Front in 1994, Prachanda and Baburam's hope of seizing the limelight in Nepali politics was prematurely aborted. They knew early on that they would be unable to establish themselves as prominent figures through parliamentary politics. They had to resort to violence because that was the best --- perhaps the last --- option in hand for them to realize there dreams. Upendra Yadav and Jay Prakash Gupta became staunch advocates of the plight of Madhesis after they lost clout to the United Marxist Leninist and the Nepali Congress.
In addition, the latest entrants to the bandwagon of opportunistic politics are former Maoists Jaykrishna Goit and Jwala Singh, head of The Terai Jantantrik Liberation Front (TJLF) and the self-proclaimed leader of the renegade faction of TJLF respectively, who lost their ethnic dominance within the CPN (Maoist) to another Madhesi leader, Matrika Yadav.
The idea of social change is a noble one। Society should change with changing geopolitical situations and modern innovations. That is how human beings are able to utilize their maximum potential. But in the case of Nepal, the idea of "social change" has been widely abused for political gains.
Prachanda and others in his party believe the CPN (Maoist) to be the most inclusive party। They claim to be the agents of social change. The latest example cited to prove this claim is the composition of Maoist parliamentarians in the interim parliament, comprising mostly Dalits, women, and Madhesis.
However, the question often left out in this debate is what powers these Maoist parliamentarians will have and will be allowed to exercise, if any। The Maoist parliamentarians will vote as a unified block based on the directives they receive from Prachanda and his upper caste followers in the central committee.
The Maoist parliamentarians are like birds whose wings have already been clipped before setting them free in the corridors of the parliament building. They cannot and will not be allowed to act according to their conscience. It is the central committee, which is heavily dominated by the upper castes, bahuns and chhetris, who devise future political strategies and set agendas. Thus, the bitter pill behind the Maoist propaganda of inclusive politics is that it is the upper castes in the CPN (Maoist) who are using the Dalits and women as their puppets and running the show themselves. True social change warrants for bringing Dalits, women, and other marginalized groups into the decision- making positions not using them as puppets.
The Maoists, who got 73 seats in the 330 member parliament because of smoking guns they possessed and brainwashed militiamen, seem to be in a mood to sit down and listen to the genuine grievances of the Madhesis, who have stepped into the Maoist shoes। Matrika Yadav, a Maoist ideologue and central committee member, while referring to Jaykrishna Goit, the leader of Terai Jantantrik Liberation Front (TJLF), noted "that everything cannot be achieved through violence". That is like the pot calling the kettle black.
One thing for sure is that the Maoists, whose hands are stained with the blood of innocent people, do not have the moral authority to preach nonviolence as a means for social change। It is they who set the precedence of violent politics and taught that the politics of intimidation and killing is the shortcut to power.
Brahmin and chhetris have held far too much clout and say in the governing of the nation since the existence of Nepal as a sovereign state। Madhesis, who account for approximately 40 percent of the population, have been largely marginalized and discriminated against for far too long. The current dissent, if not dealt with very carefully, may fuel recurrent communal conflicts and robust separatist movements.
Except for the rhetoric of need for an independent state, the demands put forward by the Madhesis for an inclusive political system are largely genuine and the need of the day। We do not need a separate state to guarantee the rights of Madhesis and other marginalized groups. Goit's TJLF and its renegade faction led by Jwala Singh are playing the separatist card to enhance their bargaining power.
However, the deepening fissure and polarization between Pahade and Madhise could precipitate a bigger crisis। The real challenge now is to wilt such polarization not by force or violence, but by legitimate sharing of the resources of the country, irrespective of the culture, race, or region of the people. The only way to prevent separatism is through the introduction of a federal structure for regional autonomy that would guarantee ethnic representation. The demand for equity and self-governance should not be viewed from an ethnic dimension. It is not about ethnicity, but equity and social justice.
In Nepal, where leaders prefer cruising with the popular opinion rather than sticking to the politically and socially correct agendas, safeguarding territorial and political integrity will be one of the biggest challenges। The political parties should not allow the Maoists to change the parameters of the relations between Nepal and India rooted in the concept of equidistance between India and China.
If the Maoists-influenced leaders try to show any tilt away from India, it is very much possible that India could instigate and support the Madhesis and thus could jeopardize the very integrity of Nepal।
Furthermore, we cannot ignore India's expertise in instigating separatist movements. If it were not for India's involvement, the Pakistani Army had enough teeth to foil the separatist movement that led to the establishment of Bangladesh. Thus, until we are able to inculcate the feeling of nationalism and a sense of belonging in the Madhesis via the introduction of federal structure, the looming danger of instigation of separatist movements fueled by India stays put. The only way to annul that danger is through the introduction of federal structure.
The biggest danger to peace and democracy is not from the Madhesis. The Maoist commitment to democracy is highly questionable. Prachanda's recent interview to British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) conveys a loud and clear message about the Maoist-long term plans. He has clearly said that the Maoists will not settle for anything less than a proletarian communist state. The writing is on the wall, if only the so-called intellectuals and punditry of Nepal could read it.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Nepal - Inclusion With Vision
The challenge ahead is to construct just affirmative action policies that can adequately and efficiently administer compensatory and distributive justice, but at the same time have very little room for abuse by free. One of the most important roles of a state that strives towards inclusive democracy is to reach out to marginalized groups that have been bypassed either by choice or by default. This will ensure that public service system is inclusive and representative. We, as a nation, will be better off by ensuring inclusion of marginalized groups rather than exclusion, which in itself is undemocratic. Thus, inclusion of all marginalized groups bypassed so far, in all of the organs of state machinery on a proportional basis, is necessary to inculcate a feeling of belonging and to make state machineries more responsive to the needs of everyone's need.
One of the ways adopted to correct past mistakes is through affirmative action policies to ensure empowerment of the marginalized groups. However, there is a fine line between effective administration of compensatory and distributive justice through affirmative action policies that ensures empowerment of marginalized groups and the reverse discrimination. In South Africa, after the African National Congress took power in the early 1990s, they tried correcting past indecencies by offering a severance package to white civil servants did not serve as a good omen as a majority of the experienced white civil servants left government service. This had a tremendous negative affect on bureaucracy and the overall development of the nation.
Thus, the burden lies on the government to ensure that the group that was privileged in the past does not become a victim of reverse discrimination and withdraw its contribution to the society। An abrupt withdrawal and flight of this section of society that is well-educated, relatively wealthy, and politically enlightened could prove to be disastrous for development of the nation. For empowerment of members of a marginalized group to take place, it is important to identify the individuals within the marginalized groups that are actually deprived and in need of the state’s intervention. Thus, preference should be given to only those castes within the officially declared marginalized groups for their upliftment, enhancement, and subsequently empowerment. For example, the members of backward caste Madhesis and Madhesi Dalits such as Lohar, Sonar, Dom, Chamars, Musahars and others who actually face discrimination on a daily basis, are at the bottom of the economic ladder and do not have access to social goods and opportunity should be the ones to benefit from the affirmative action policies, but not to the whole “Madhesi group” which they are part of. This is mainly so because some members of the “Madhesi group” such as those belonging to upper castes- Brahmins, Rajputs, and Bhumiyars- are actually more successful and financially well off than the lower caste Madhesis, Dalit Madhesis and even lower caste and Dalit Pahades. If they, along with lower caste and Dalit Madhesis, are made entitled to affirmative actions, the well-educated upper caste Madhesis that are better educated and financially well-off will quickly learn to hop opportunities and reduce affirmative action policies to “affirmative auction.”
So, instead of blindly allocating opportunities to the people within the certain group, a combination of factors like wealth, education level, income, occupation, and geographical disparities should be used to identify truly needy people among the officially classified marginalized groups. The resources and opportunities thus saved can be distributed among those who are that are needy but are born in the upper castes by default, not by choice.
The government should learn from the Indian experience। Despite having the public policy of affirmative action in India in some form or the other for more than five decades now, approximately 25 percent of total population is still languishing below the poverty line. The people that make up this 25 percent are mostly backward castes and Dalits. So, merely having policies in place does not ensure empowerment and emancipation. For real empowerment and emancipation to occur, policies should be able to deliver to those who need the most. In addition, affirmative action policies should be auditable. It should be audited from time to time to see if it is really addressing the issue that it is suppose to address or just enhancing dependency and the sense of entitlement among the recipients.
Our success lies in devising affirmative action policies that are unique, workable in the sociocultural context of Nepal and which reach those who deserve it the most। The policies should be time-bound rather than open ended. Failure to do so would result in a situation like in India, whereby the hope that reservation would be abolished after the catching-up by the marginalized groups, has not yet been realised. In the absence of a strict time frame, the very notion of catch-up will be defined to suit the political needs and will be subjected to political manipulation. As in India, there will be a consistent and concerted effort to extend reservation to cover more and more groups. It will be impossible to get rid of politically expedient policies of reservation in the absence of a time frame, even if it is a generation or two later. Thus, having a timeline in place is extremely important to prevent preference from turning out to be an entitlement. Failure to do so will eventually constrict opportunities for upper castes and ignite social tension. The formation of upper-class militia such as Ranvir Sena in Bihar in future cannot be ruled out altogether.
The overall goal of affirmative action policies that are to be implemented in Nepal should be to make discriminated and bypassed members of marginalized group become more competent and help them to emerge as natural competitors rather than enhance intergenerational dependency.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Can peace & Maoists coexist?
While internally displaced people (IDPs), many of whom are members of the current Seven Party Alliance (SPA), are still confronted by the wrath of Maoists and forced to live away from their homes, the government stays busy appeasing the Maoists and keeping them content। How far should this game of appeasement and political settlement go?
As far as the Maoists are concerned, they are still doing the same thing that they have been doing for more than a decade now। The only difference is that they are doing it more openly this time around. According to a recent National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) report, they have killed 15 people since the April 26 truce. They have resisted the reinstatement of police posts in rural areas, and in turn obstructed developmental works. The 12th municipal council meeting of the Lekhnath municipality was recently cancelled because the Maoist cadres padlocked the municipal office. While the Maoist leaders are making politically correct noises in the capital, their low rung cadres are constantly playing with fears of civilians.
Human rights groups and the civil society that vehemently opposed human rights abuses during King Gyanendra's rule seem to be least bothered by Maoist atrocities। They even keep silent when Maoist militiamen march with their guns loaded in broad daylight. Their silence proves that they act when it pays, and in the current situation it certainly does not pay to be in the bad books of the Maoists.
We, as a nation, thought that Maoists' atrocities would subside after they signed peace agreement with the government। When that did not happen we kept our positive outlook alive and chose to wait till they signed the disarmament pact with the UN. Even after signing the peace accord with the government and the disarmament pact with the UN, and receiving multi-million rupees to feed their guerillas, the Maoists continue to flex their muscle and undermine human rights of civilians.
The Maoists are yet to abandon their decade-old tactics of intimidation, threats, and killings as a means of political control. Even after getting a bumper deal of 73 seats in a new 330-seat parliament without contesting election, they have not mended their ways. The Maoists know better than ever that the politics of intimidation, threats, and violence pays; and pays heavily.
While the Maoists are engaged in systematic violations of the covenants of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, we are forced to adjust our level of expectations and cope with the realities। Instead of pin-pointing Maoists' atrocities, we have chosen to resort to wishful thinking. We hope that the Maoists will soon start behaving as civilized citizens. However, the Maoist latest actions show that they have very little tolerance for peaceful existence.
The recent furor over the ambassadorial appointment by the government proves that for the Maoists, the goal is always power। They do not want to be perceived as a weak partner. On the contrary, the Maoists see themselves as being in the driver's seat.
Maoist supreme Prachanda's strategy in many ways resembles that of Moqtda Al-Sadr, a young Shiite cleric from Sadr city in Baghdad, who has been dictating Iraqi politics for quite some time now and is perceived as a thorn in American effort to stabilize Iraq। Like Moqtada, Prachanda too claims that he stands for the poor and disenfranchised even though the Breitling watch he wears points in other direction. Moqtada uses his Mahdi Army to exhibit his strength and so does Prachanda through his people's army.
Many in Nepal and abroad think that keeping Prachanda inside the political system would mark an end of violent politics। It may just prove to be our wishful thinking. Technically, they were supposed to stop extortion, abduction, torture, and recruitment of militiamen after signing the peace deal. Has that happened yet? What will it take for the Maoists to stop human rights abuses and start behaving as law-abiding members of society? How long should the people accept this brutality while holding onto the hope that someday the violence will end, and they will be allowed to speak and live freely?
In Iraq, like in Nepal, foreign diplomats had similar wishful thinking। They thought bringing Moqtada inside the political system would stop atrocities carried out by the Mahdi Army. Contrary to popular belief, even after Sadr loyalists won 30 out of 275 seats in the parliamentary election and were allowed to hold important ministries such as health and transportation, the covert recruitment and operation of the Mahdi army continued unabated. The Mahdi Army that was once thought to be in the hundreds has now grown to several thousand. It has grown rapidly over time and has been terrorizing Iraqi politics and society concurrently. With each passing day, covert modus operandi of the Mahdi Army gets more sophisticated. They extort, torture, and kill in larger numbers than ever.
Moqtada Al-Sadr stayed away from government but has been busy pursuing a dual strategy; increasing his militia covertly and capitalizing on his control over the key ministries that his men run to provide services to the poor, and giving jobs to his die-hard followers। Prachanda might be having similar plans in mind. The recruitment drive carried out by the People's Liberation Army even after signing the peace accord with the government and the disarmament pact with the UN raises more questions than answers. Our wishful thinking and desperate need for peace stops us from questioning Maoist intentions.
The government has not responded to the Maoist allegation of unilateralism in the appointment of ambassadors to various nations yet. But if that is the case, the government has committed a mistake by not consulting the Maoists before nominating ambassadors to various nations.
The SPA government should not alienate the Maoists and make them suspicious। None except for the Maoists themselves know how many weapons they possess. If Prachanda is insecure, more arms and militiamen will be covertly kept away from the cantonment sites. With a large number of ammunitions and trained militiamen out of cantonment sites and his ideologues in Singha Durbar running various ministries, Prachanda will be without a doubt, more powerful than ever.
A complete democratization of society will be an elusive dream. The survival of social and liberal democrats will prove to be harder than ever. We cannot afford to let that happen. Therefore, let us not commit any mistake in belling the cat.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Students' Moral Bankruptcy
Are these students, who indulged in acts of vandalism, really committed ones who want to enrich their lives or is it an act of budding student politicians who think student politics is an expressway to national politics? If those involved in vandalism are really serious students committed to getting good grades and want to make more of life, we should immediately correct the system.
Taking actions against those professors that are careless and do not understand the sacrifices students make and long hours they put in would be a good start. We should not let these professors' actions dampen the spirit of our young minds. But if it is an act of so-called student leaders, then time is ripe to start thinking about reforming student politics in colleges and universities across the nation.
Our college campuses should not be allowed to become infested by dirty politics. It should by no means be allowed to become a breeding ground for those sleazy politicians of tomorrow. There is a vast difference between a student assembly or union comprising neutral students that fight for the rights of the students and a front organization of political parties that operate within college campuses. Not that I condone vandalism but there is nothing to fear when a student association works for advancement of education and student rights.
However, we do need to be concerned when our innocent students that have the power of changing the face of our nation are used and abused by political parties for their own political gains.
Students should be given a chance to start their educational career with a fresh mind which is not polluted with political biases. Under the prevailing conditions, the first thing incoming college student receives is the membership of a front organization of political parties that operate in almost every college campuses across the nation. This breeds biased ideologues instead of a genuine patriotic professional. Students come out of our universities with a politically biased mind and start viewing all of those with opposing political views as a regressive element of society. This does more harm than good because it depletes the level of political and social tolerance in a society.
When it comes to student politics what we need to understand is that it should be the students that are benefited from the causes that student leaders pursue. It is hard to comprehend how vandalizing a department benefits students. How does vandalism help solve the problem of carelessness on the part of a professor? If we are trying to scare professors and force them to curve the grades for good grades alone then the students would be without sound knowledge, which is not useful.
In this competitive world, you may be able to get a job with good grades but will not be able to succeed in the absence of real knowledge. If phony grades were of any help, all those students who buy certificates from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India and have distinction would all have become doctors, engineers, and highest ranking officials in Nepal. Thus, we should strive towards making our educational institutions competitive and set the highest possible standard for our students rather than reducing it to a phony degree granting machine.
Student politics is not a bad thing in itself. Some of the finest leaders of our time have a past in student politics. However, what racks ordinary citizens' mind is that how far they have crossed the line. Setting ablaze a department where thousands of aspiring teachers had dreamt of gaining the valuable skills that a good teacher possesses is a heinous crime.
There are good students and there are bad students, just like there are good professors and bad professors. We should find a better way to straighten out the act of those careless professors out there whose acts malign the image of educators and certainly vandalism of a department is not the way to resolve this problem. When we could bring down King Gyananda's despotic rule by resorting to non-violent means we can definitely get the act of our careless professors straight without inflicting harm to our alma mater.
There is, no doubt, that the students have been at the forefront of every political and social movements of Nepal. Be it 1980, 1990, or 2006's democratic movement, students made tremendous contributions and sacrifices for the establishment of democracy.
It is not only in Nepal but throughout the globe, students have played and continue to play important roles when it comes to fighting against injustices. Be it against apartheid in South Africa or against the Vietnam War in America, students organized themselves and vehemently opposed against apartheid and war.
However, after the end of Vietnam War students got back to their campuses and prioritized their studies. Students' associations in Europe and America are more into working for the educational advancement of the fellow students rather than working as political pawns in the dirty games of political parties.
It is an open secret that students are the strongest weapons of the political parties to organize a successful movement that can bring down any government in Nepal. But, unfortunately at the cost of the year lost or sometimes lives for the benefit of political parties. Students should decide for themselves if it is worth it.
We freed ourselves from Rana oligarchy more than five decades ago, and have witnessed many forms of governments, but the plight of the common people continues unabated. No matter what form of government we choose to have the hard reality is that thousands of people are still forced to go to bed hungry every night.
Thus, we cannot afford to put students in the streets against the government again and again. Students are not a political weapon but they are our investment in future economic growth. We can change the government by simply following the democratic process -- voting them out, if we are unsatisfied with their performance.
University students should consider themselves as a fortunate few whose dreams are still afloat. Those who are now in universities have an opportunity and a moral responsibility to build the future of this country for which our politicians simply do not have the time or intention to consider.
If students do not realize their moral responsibility now, there cannot be any hope that this hungry nation would ever do justice to or offer any dignity to those languishing at the bottom of the economic ladder.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Bumpy road ahead
The midnight accord was a big deal. Certainly, it marked an end of the aspiration of experimenting with radical communism in Nepal, cherished by the Maoist insurgents. Girija Prasad Koirala, who in the past had been consistently labeled as having a hawkish personality and was often blamed for propagating nepotism and corruption, has finally been able to achieve people's aspirations of peace. His sheer determination to restore peace and stability has paid off at the end.
Prachanda has done a big favor to himself. By signing the peace accord, he has saved himself from going down in history as a notorious and stubborn insurgent leader. Time will tell if he has a vision to establish himself as a true statesman or if he simply succeeded in reaching where he is now because of the failure of politicians in the past.
Everyone, except for King Gyanendra and his cronies, has tremendously benefited from the midnight accord. The biggest winners are the Nepali people who have been longing for a durable peace and democracy for quite some time.
That King Gyanendra's failed bid to establish an autocratic regime proved to be a boon for the people. The people suffered for a couple of months, but this provided a platform for them to unite for a republic Nepal. Had King Gyanendra not been blinded by his autocratic aspirations, pushing freedom-loving people to the wall, it might have taken longer for us to convince the Maoists to join the mainstream politics.
The midnight accord has given the political parties that committed numerous mistakes and mismanaged national priorities an opportunity for a fresh start. Politicians have a golden opportunity to whitewash their previous records of corruption, nepotism, and incompetence now by lending an ear to the grievances of their constituents and fulfilling their aspirations.
The cloud of uncertainty and insecurity looming over the Nepali sky has finally cleared. Hopefully, all of the smoking guns will fall silent for good. After several tumultuous years marred by violence and political instability, the people can now breathe a sigh of relief. However, the days ahead are not filled with beds of roses. The real challenge begins with this new dawn. This is mainly because the stability of a conflict-ridden country largely depends on the success of reconciliation and reconstruction measures.
The countries in transition from a time of war to a time of peace are often confronted with a significant chance of sliding back into warfare. Thus, the mere signing of a peace agreement is not a guarantee of stability and peace.
The transitional phase is always a difficult and bumpy time because of constant uncertainty and insecurity. The leaders of all political parties, including the Maoists, should be careful because mistakes and mismanagement of problems during the transition phase can cause the country to slide back into warfare.
In order to establish a durable peace and stability, the violence and lawlessness that has existed thus far must give way to the security of citizens and the rule of law; social and political exclusion must give way to participatory institutions; animosity between the Maoists and the internally displaced persons (IDPs) must give way to national reconciliation; and the economy that has been ravaged by the decade-long violent insurgency must be transformed into a well-functioning market economy. The challenges ahead could be overwhelming if not dealt with carefully.
The most difficult question confronting us is where to begin with the reconciliation and reconstruction process. The government can begin by establishing positive measures such as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). It is extremely important because this has an ability to bring people on both sides of the conflict together to explore their mutual fear and anger and helps build bridges of trust between them.
Constructive reconciliation is extremely important for a meaningful transformation and democratization of our society. This is mainly because at the heart of any sustainable peace is the condition and process of reconciliation that helps restore a certain wholeness. It enhances the capacity of our society to let go of the hatred and hurt of the past and help warring sides to envision common future. It will instill a sense of friendship and nurture understanding between both the oppressors and victims.
Reconciliation is extremely important if peace is to be stabilized. Many peace agreements are orphaned in the absence of reconciliation. In the absence of reconciliation programs, the warring sides soon realize that it is impossible to co-exist and the conflict becomes renewed. One example of what can happen in the absence of reconciliation is the case of the second Intifada carried out by Palestine since 2000. Despite signing the Oslo accord and other numerous agreements, the warring sides (Israel and Palestine) have not been able to achieve a stable peace.
As reconciliation is a bottom-up process, the government should encourage people from both sides of the divide to come forward and forgive and reconcile with their one-time adversaries. Reconciliation is not easy because it forces each party to deal with human emotions and self-respect. It is hard for the victims of Maoist atrocities to forget their past grievances and forgive their oppressors. At the same time, it will be extremely difficult for the Maoist militiamen that committed crimes against humanity to admit their guilt and, with it, shed their arrogance.
Nepal has undergone a profound change, and the change poses new challenges for all of us. Citizens face the challenges of adapting to the changed social and political conditions; the government faces the challenges of directing the nation through the extremely painful process of reconciliation as well as the difficult process of reconstruction.
Like any other war-ravaged country, the decade-long insurgency has taken its toll on this country's overall economic development. Nepal today suffers from economic underdevelopment and damaged physical, economic, and social infrastructures. This armed conflict that has dragged on for a decade and a half has delayed the developmental process and eroded its developmental foundation. Bringing a highly polarized society together to rejuvenate a national economy that is capable of taking care of the basic needs of all citizens is not an easy task.
Rebuilding damaged physical and economic infrastructures is important, but the government should not get absorbed in the "mechanical-materialist approach" of reconstruction. This is mainly because reconstruction cannot be truly achieved in a society like ours without reforming social and political structures and the human relationships that are necessary to foster reconciliation and an idea of peaceful co-existence.
The government should reform economic policy and make development more inclusive, promote equity, and create special programs aimed at consolidating peace and stability. The economic policy of a new Nepal should thus focus not only on securing rapid economic growth, but also on equity, social inclusion, and stable peace. It should be aimed at fostering political and social adjustment vis-a-vis economic adjustment. Economic development alone cannot sustain peace if the underlying political and socioeconomic causes that sparked the Maoist conflict are not resolved.
Saturday, November 4, 2006
Peace under the gun?
The news about the government and the Maoists making a breakthrough on the issue of arms management took everyone by surprise. The Kathmandu Post (Oct 31) quoted an anonymous leader involved in the negotiation and reported that a breakthrough acceptable to the government, the Maoists and the international community had been reached.
However, the recent interview given by Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa "Badal" to Nepal Magazine states otherwise. He flatly refuses any possibility of the Maoists agreeing to the disarmament, demobilization, reintegration (DDR) formula put forward by the United Nations (UN). His perception of DDR as a means to force the Maoists to surrender raises serious doubts about him toeing the line with the Maoist supreme leaders, Prachanda and Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, on the issue of arms management. The brewing suspicion of him leading a splinter Maoist rebel group holds ground more than ever now and should not be understated.
A flurry of statements from the Maoist and SPA leaders in recent days have led to waxing and waning of people's expectations for a durable peace and stability. The marriage of convenience between the SPA and Maoists during the April revolution had instilled a ray of hope for a lasting peace and stability among the conflict-ridden Nepali citizens. However, with each day's passing, both peace and democracy seem to be an elusive dream.
As long as the Maoists maintain their goals inflexible and provide conflicting signals, there is a strong possibility that talks may soon hit the wall. Their refusal to disarm may prove to be a stumbling block in the ongoing peace process. When a party involved in negotiation puts forward inflexible goals, overlapping bargaining ranges fail to emerge and negotiations can break down prematurely.
At this point in time, the Maoists are trying to prove that they can hold out longer than their opposition during both negotiations and war. They understand that the longer they can stall negotiations, the more likely they are to convince the SPA government to capitulate.
The Maoist leaders are reluctant to disarm militiamen because while divulging secret weapons depots might facilitate settlement, it will simultaneously leave them vulnerable to intimidations and attacks. They know that the people and security forces that they have intimidated during this decade-long insurgency will lash out at them at the first chance they get.
Thus, the Maoists are trapped in a Catch-22 situation when it comes to the issue of disarmament. If the Maoist leaders agree to complete decommissioning of weapons, they will be making their militiamen dangerously vulnerable to annihilation; if they refuse to do so, they would be triggering the very security dilemma they hope to avoid.
Insurgency resolution is always a complex matter, no matter how simple and straightforward it may look from outside. It is complex not because of conflicting objectives, but because of conflicting perceptions of the issues involved and the complicated relationships between adversaries.
Resolving the Maoist insurgency requires more than agreeing to a ceasefire. An extension of a ceasefire is not a guarantor of peace. Successful resolution of the Maoist conflict warrants complete disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen, integration of militiamen into the mainstream of society, and building an interim government capable of accommodating insurgents' interests. However, the formation of an interim government including the Maoists should be based on the complete disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen.
Disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen is crucial because a free and fair Constituent Assembly (CA) election is not possible without complete disarmament of Maoist militiamen. If they are not disarmed, the Maoists will definitely try to capitalize on people's fears. It would be naive to think that the demagogues, with their pathetic human right records, would act like Boy Scouts during the CA election.
In addition, if the CA election is held without disarming the Maoist rbels, it will be dominated by concerns about peace and security. Furthermore, the voters will be forced to use the limited power of their franchise to appease armed insurgents with a hope that this will prevent rebels from heading back to the jungles.
Thus, successful disarmament and demobilization of the militiamen is extremely important in enhancing confidence in the electoral process and guaranteeing fair election results.
Peace and democracy cannot flourish under the gun. The mad rush towards the formation of an interim government without addressing the core issues--- disarmament and demobilization of armed rebels --- would be a futile attempt towards a lasting peace and stability. The solution based on power sharing without taking care of the core issues remains incomplete. Forcing unwilling and contentious factions together in any kind of power-sharing structure is not a lasting solution and is bound to fail in the long run.
If we look at the world's history, it becomes evident that settlements based on power sharing without taking care of disarmament, demobilization, reintegration (DDR) issues eventually fail and lead to renewed war. For instance, failure to disarm combatants led to renewed conflict in Angola.
According to Margaret Antsee, the UN special envoy to Angola, "Any lasting solution of a long-standing civil war depends on a satisfactory resolution of the military element." Thus, complete disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen should be the central component of efforts towards re-establishing legitimate governance, lasting peace, and a well-functioning democracy.
If peace talks are on the verge of breakdown, the Maoist fear of annihilation can be subsided through a firm commitment from the third party. The UN can mobilize peace keeping forces in the field to actively punish violations and protect disarmed Maoist militiamen. This will ensure that the Maoist security concerns will not be negated and will promote their willingness towards disarmament.
The ongoing peace negotiations may fail, not because the Maoists do not want peace, but because they cannot solve certain tenacious bargaining problems. If the Maoists want to establish themselves as a political force, they should view disarmament and demobilization as an important step towards both confidence-building among the parties and the development of new institutions and procedures of decision-making that are necessary for sustaining peace and democracy.
The Maoists should move away from their current competitive-bargaining strategy and adopt a softer cooperative-bargaining strategy. This is mainly because competitive-bargaining strategy assumes a "win-lose" situation. As neither the Maoists nor the government want to be perceived as a loser, this strategy does not lend itself to the compromises necessary to bring an end to the conflict; no substantial progress can be made as such. Cooperative-bargaining is based more on a "win-win" mentality and is geared more towards focusing on benefits for the parties involved.
Friday, October 6, 2006
Peace and disarmament
With their continued actions, the Maoists are trying to malign the credibility of security guarantees that a government is supposed to provide to its citizens. It is an attempt to generate public impatience with the government's inability to maintain law and order. Maoists' documented pattern of behavior reflects that, for them, it is struggle at a different level.
The Maoists are trying to overwhelm the system without provoking the Nepali Army. Their myopic goal is to extort as much money as possible so that they can become a larger and more organized force to overwhelm the system. The Maoist threat of violence is nothing but a tactical move to achieve the end of violence without incurring any loss at the hands of the Nepali Army.
The time is ripe for the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) to ascertain where Maoist interests lie. Despite the government's relentless effort to appease the whims of Maoists, the Maoist actions show that they want complete dominance over the Nepali politics rather than share the limelight with SPA. SPA might have accepted the Maoists as their partner but the Maoists are yet to accept SPA as a friendly political force.
Although the Maoists have easy access and refuge in urban areas with the help of seven party alliance, they still deny access to political activists belonging to other parties in rural areas. All that the Maoists want at this point is to consolidate their base and garner support in urban areas without losing an inch in rural areas.
The Maoists have outperformed the SPA politicians in media campaigns. The government has miserably failed to actively communicate with the general population in order to manage expectations, build support, and allay suspicions. There seems to exist a disconnect between the people's aspirations for peace and stability and the actual ability of the political leaders to deliver. The people are not yearning for modern cars, luxurious houses, lavish vacations and other trendy gizmos: rather, they could be well-content in a simple life, free of violence, corruption, and living in inferno.
The SPA leaders should move away from fear's paralysis and put the Maoist leadership in defensive with active media campaigns. They should push for complete disarmament of Maoist militiamen. This is crucial for the ultimate survival of political parties and establishment of permanent peace, security and stability.
Many peacekeeping missions undertaken by the United Nations in conflict-ridden countries since the late 1980s failed mainly because weapons harvesting of combatants was not done properly; at best, it could be regarded as having been done very poorly. Thus, long term peace and stability of our conflict-ridden society largely depends on well-structured peace building negotiations between warring sides, humanitarian and infrastructure tasks to support local populations, and the permanent disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen; failure to do so will render permanent peace a distant dream. This is mainly because uncollected weapons and unemployed ex-militiamen can easily reintegrate into society and pose a threat to long-term peace, stability and democracy. Failure to manage arms, which are the prime source of Maoists' fiefdom, can and will have a negative impact on the success of ongoing peace efforts, the consolidation of peace, and the prevention of future conflict from possible break away factions of the Maoist party.
Peace and stability warrants strengthening the power of the government, which can only be possible when the Maoist militiamen are disarmed completely. Thus, complete disarmament of the Maoist militia is crucial to reducing the potential for escalation of the insurgency, and as a part of conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction.
However, disarming the Maoists is not an easy task for the United Nations or any other international agency that might be interested in negotiating peace. This is because the Maoists do not have any incentive to tell the truth about the number of weapons they possess, and Maoist commanders will definitely try to covertly retain weapons and troops in case things do not go their way. For the Maoists, who can collect huge sums of money through extortion and by exercising fiefdom, conflict's familiar pattern is a safer bet than peace, which is altogether a new leap into the unknown and uncertain future.
The Maoists are hesitant to surrender their weapons because weapons possess economic as well as security values for them. With virtually non-existent employment opportunities and a lack of marketable skills among the Maoist militiamen, there are no real incentives for them to lay down their arms. The willingness to completely disarm on the part of the Maoist militia will largely depend on the government's ability to guarantee employment opportunities, food security, and the personal safety of Maoist militiamen.
One of the ways to deal with this is to secure overseas employment opportunities for the Maoist militiamen. By doing so, the government will not have to bear the burden of providing them jobs in the armed forces. The country can benefit through increased remittances and it will provide the Maoist militiamen with first-hand experiences of earning money through a fair and legal means while instilling in them a sense of respect for private property which they currently lack. In addition, the possibilities of ex-militiamen organizing themselves and starting insurgencies reduce drastically.
The Maoists should move beyond their rhetoric and begin to see disarmament as part of a wider political process aimed at resolving underlying and structural sources of conflict. Conflict is a vicious cycle and the sooner one can achieve an end to this recurring circle of violence, the better it is. This is mainly because conflict is a highly persistent condition. Societies caught in a vortex of conflict have a high probability of remaining in conflict.
Sebastian Mallaby rightly points out the nature of conflict when he notes, "violent conflict might become self-sustaining, because war breeds the conditions which make fresh conflict likely". What Maoist leadership should not underestimate is the impact of war weariness on their militia. If war stretches on for too long and the militiamen perceive victory to be unachievable, they may gradually lose their continued will to fight.
With the international community against them and having militiamen "burn out," the Maoist leadership might be deprived of the fair deal that they can negotiate now to find a timely and safe resolution to the conflict.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Counteracting Maoist Strategies in Nepal
After the April uprising, the mood of general public seems to be upbeat. People have begun to see a silver lining in the otherwise murky cloud. With the eight point pact between the government and the Maoist rebels, bloody insurgency that took lives of approximately 14,000 people seems to be coming to an end, hopefully a logical one.
However, even after the eight point pact, kidnappings and extortion of innocent citizens have not subsided. Kidnappings and extortions by the Maoists continue unabated.
Thousands of homes of internally displaced citizens padlocked by the Maoist insurgents are yet to be unlocked. Their lands have been distributed to create an utopian society and movable assets used up. Despite such atrocities, the current government seems to be reluctant to vigorously raise the issue and force the Maoist leadership to do something about it. The Maoists as usual have not been sticking to the agreements whole heartedly. This is not the first time they have breached an agreement. If one can get away with crimes, why bother about its judicial ramifications? It makes perfect sense.
While the Maoists seem upbeat about their political future, the government appears helpless, feeble, and in disarray. For now, its main agenda seems to be keeping insurgents happy, contended, and engaged. However, with Maoists' chairman blowing hot and cold on politicians, Nepalese Army, and the king concurrently, the political landscape is dangerously tilting in Maoists' favor and may not remain the same for long. Keeping the Maoists engaged is necessary but not enough to ensure the dominance of democratic forces. With an increase in dominance of CPN-Maoist in national politics and supposedly end of the monarchy after constituent assembly, what will the Nepali political landscape look like? With an increase in Maoist dominance in Nepali politics, members of UML and other splinter communist groups that share the same common minimum values may desert their parties and readily join the Maoist bandwagon. That will push social and liberal democrats towards oblivion. Their very existence may become questionable.
After constituent assembly when monarchy is undone, what happens if the Maoists do not gain majority in parliament? Will they resort to persuasive politics and try winning mind and hearts of ordinary citizens whom they frightened and intimidated for one and a half decades? Big brains churning out political strategies for SPA should be pondering upon these questions, sooner the better.
If the Maoists lose elections and become a minority group in the parliament, it is very likely that some of their leaders will again head out to jungles and resort to guns to maintain their fiefdom or they may resort to guns and rig their way to the power. It is all together a different question whether or not they will be able to hold on to power in the current geopolitical settings for long. Either of these two routes is alarmingly dangerous.
Prime Minister Koirala's instance on ceremonial monarchy is very insightful. It may not be a very popular or politically correct thing to do now, but it is the right thing to do. Politicians like Koirala should demonstrate the courage and do the right thing rather than cruising in with popular opinion. Having a ceremonial king may not be a popular idea but it serves the people's interests. It will provide international community a base and a space to operate in case communist groups go out of whack and follow Cuban, North Korean, or for that matter Venezuelan path.
Mere signing agreement does not mean anything. It is not only about bringing the Maoists on-board and keeping them engaged. The SPA should work towards retaining their lost grounds by proving themselves strong and visionary.
They should try defending their existence and redefine their strategy in order to gain public confidence in them.
Even after the 12-point pact, 25-point code of conduct and the eight-point agreement, Maoists' brutality continues unabated. It is propagating the perception of lawlessness. But establishing the rule of law and maintaining security is very important for the success of any peace process and beyond. Failure to establish the rule of --- and maintain --- law and order effectively has left East Timor in a lurch.
The government should not ignore Maoist atrocities or any other criminal groups. We may choose to ignore lawlessness, but the only thing we can hope after that is social unrest, untold bloodshed, and the end of our dreams.
A well functioning legal system is in everyone's best interest. It provides an arena in which citizens can hold politicians and civil servants to account. In addition, it helps citizens protect themselves from exploitation by rich and powerful, and help resolve conflicts in an amicable manner.
A rule of law is central to the realization of constitutionally guaranteed rights and is important to achieve the broader goals of development and poverty reduction.We had a well functioning parliament a decade ago. It did not take very long for things to go out of hand and we risked ourselves of becoming a failed
state. Be it an irrational thinking of bunch of leftist radicals that thought power comes from the barrel of gun or incompetent politicians who think they could get away without serving their constituents and enriching themselves. The decade old insurgency brought us nothing but made us to realize that the armed struggle is an incorrect approach. Sanity has finally made a come back, better late than never, and let us hope it prevails.
Nepal is confronted with significant challenges and seemingly intr-actableproblems. Corruption and weak adherence to the rule of law are the biggest blems. Political will to address governance and ensure economic development is central to the Nepal's future.