Unearned victory

Everyone is contemplating the factors that carried the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML to an impressive victory in the recent CA elections. The scale of the NC and UML’s victory has surprised not only political pundits, but also NC and UML cadres. The victory came despite the absence of fresh candidates and clear messages, and wavering political commitment towards empowerment and emancipation of Madheshis and ethnic minorities. 

The debate over whether people who voted for NC and UML actually subscribe to their liberal ideals will continue to play out over the months ahead. However, the most important question that everyone should be asking is: what led to the withering of the symbolic emphasis that voters placed on the need for radical change in the first CA elections? 

Long-standing socio-economic grievances, disputes among ethnic political parties, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable system of governance are some factors that could have led to a more pragmatic move towards the center, leaving the bourgeois Maoist populists and ‘ethnic entrepreneurs’ that hijacked and subsequently maligned the genuine need for ethnic empowerment and emancipation to fend for themselves.

The Maoists and ethnic parties failed miserably to gauge public intelligence. Their attempt at defeating NC and UML by stoking the same agendas—establishing an ethno-centric republic, building an inclusive society, administering equality and justice, etc—failed. They ignored the same issues when in power, grossly underestimating the public’s intelligence. However, the loss of Maoists and ethnic parties which are infested with ethnic entrepreneurs is by no means a death of the quest for “total equality.” It will come back to haunt NC and UML if the ideas of social justice and egalitarianism are not enshrined in the constitution. 

Having witnessed the defeat of Maoist and ethnic parties, people are now in the process of figuring out what a NC-led coalition government means for Nepal’s peace and stability. Since the current polity is one that the Maoists have defined, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible, for NC and UML to deviate from the Maoist interpretation of democracy. While the Maoist leaders have said that they will be “pragmatic and cooperative,” it would be naive to imagine that this group will abandon its basic ideology and play second fiddle to NC and UML. 

There simply is not enough evidence at this point to believe that two Brahmins—Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai—who failed to fulfill their political dreams under multiparty set-up and turned the country into killing fields will consume NC and UML’s “liberal democratic” bait hook, line and sinker! The second CA elections might have temporarily transformed the political landscape whereby moderate democrats will now replace radical ideologues and ethnic entrepreneurs, but it will not take very long for Dahal and ethnic entrepreneurs to mount a comeback if the root causes of Maoist insurgency and ethnic unrest are not adequately addressed.

The Maoists lost for a simple reason. Dahal and know-it-all Bhattarai believed that political manipulation, belligerent rhetoric and occasional violence were sufficient to endlessly sway public consciousness. Their inability to transform from a guerilla outfit to an open, viable political party that is capable of translating popular support into effective policies was the main reason behind their electoral debacle. 

While the Maoists lost because of their inability to actually transform, NC and UML won despite the absence of clear vision on how they would actually solve burning socioeconomic problems, growing insecurity, and wavering political commitment towards empowerment and emancipation of Madheshis and ethnic minorities. 

More than anything else, the victory of NC and UML is a result of incompetence on part of the Maoists and ethnic Madheshi parties, and that is where the problem lies. When the opposition’s victory is largely a result of an inability on part of the party in power to fulfill the aspirations of the people, there is a great risk of screw-ups. You tend to value things that you earn the hard way. 

If you look at the history of the people who have won big lotteries, most of them waste their newfound wealth on women and alcohol. Another classic example is of Nepali students and the diversity visa lottery winners in the United States. Students outperform their fellow citizens who have won the diversity visa lottery a large percentage. Students’ competitive edge comes from their conscious decision to be in the US and belief that hard work can conquer all obstacles.

The early signs of an unearned victory are already becoming visible. It’s been a month since the completion of CA elections, and major parties are yet to give full shape to the new CA. NC’s opposition to elections for President and Vice-President exposes its lack of seriousness towards democratic institution building. Selective preference of this nature will open the door for political perversions, which is the last thing we want at this juncture. NC’s political immaturity is also quite clear from the way it is engaged in appeasing the Maoists. 

Yes, you want them to be on board, but not through endless appeasement. The more you try to appease them, the more inflexible they will get. They would try to drag the political process down to a level so juvenile and debased that the infant democratic order could find itself in a dump. It would not take much after that to convince voters to vote them in. After all, if we look at our history, parties get back in power not because of their vision, good governance, and service delivery, but because of the incompetence and failure of those in power. 

Nepali people have, once again, given NC and UML a chance to prove their worth. It will become clear within a couple of weeks whether NC and UML’s learning curve continues to be hampered because of their self-inflicted mental block, or if these parties have actually learned from their mistakes. One will not have to wait too long. All you got to do is see the kind of people that will be nominated under proportional representation and brought in as cabinet members.

 If Girija Prasad Koirala’s protégés make a comeback, we can be pretty sure that the Maoists and ethnic entrepreneurs will have the last laugh. All that they will then have to do is keep riding the wave of people’s anger and wait for these drunken sailors to push the country into another political and constitutional abyss, which they are very much capable of doing. 

BRB, BIPPA & Beyond

Baburam Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has drawn mixed reactions. For foreigners without any stake in Nepal’s internal affairs, his Cinderella run from a battle-hardened radical ideologue to a democratically elected prime minister is a fascinating story. At home, the most cheerful is the middle class that has gotten utterly frustrated with the politicians who have been tirelessly fleecing from state coffers by extending their terms in office.

The bar of expectation on government’s deliveries has sunk so low that even the raids on sweet shops bring cheer. One thing is for sure: Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has brought desperate optimism in the middle class. It is basically a reflection of the fact that people have been through a lot in the last one and half decade, and now look forward to better times. They desperately want to believe that, under Bhattarai’s rule, life will be good—they want it, they need it, and above all, they think they deserve it.

Many seriously believe that he is the one who will dig us out of deep economic and insecurity hole we are in, even though in their hearts and minds, they know that desperate optimism cannot be the answer to our misery. The desperate optimists are pinning their hopes on populist rhetoric rather than reality. If you scrape away Bhattarai’s populist rhetoric, you will find a very different image of the man. First of all, he is one among many who raised arms against the inefficacies of the democratic system, which he himself is now manipulating to the core to remain in power. Remember how he justified the need for the largest cabinet in history by calling it coalition compulsion? And he is yet to confess he was naïve enough to believe and fight for establishing a radical communist state. Or was it a calculated strategy to carve a bigger political role for himself and his fellow comrades because the opportunity costs of doing so was extremely low? Don’t we, as a nation, deserve to know who he really is?

Bhattarai, for sure, is a shrewd politician. No one in the domestic politics knows better than Bhattarai how to sway public opinion. In dirt poor nations basking in the glory of communist ideology like ours, people always love “relief packages”. Instead of coming up with measures that would ensure market competition in the private sector, which would automatically ensure the prices of goods and services, Bhattarai does what his Red Book heroes did and continue to do in Cuba and North Korea—dole-out relief packages without being responsible for balancing the books. Window dressing of the problems of very serious nature can only lead to the crumbling of the state foundation. Does Bhattarai remember how fiscal irresponsibility, among other things, bankrupted the former communist states which then crumbled under their own weight?

Bhattarai knows very well that, in order for him to remain at the top of the ruling class, he will have to earn the trust of Madesis, middle-class Paharis and India. Dalits and ultra poor, whose sensibilities have been aroused to the maximum, are already with the Maoist party. Keeping the former happy is not a big deal. The ethnic entrepreneurs from the Tarai are only too happy to settle for plum ministerial berths instead of asking for large scale infrastructure and industrial investments that would create jobs and eventually uplift the state of downtrodden. Bhattarai has figured out that as long as they have an opportunity to buy gold, ethnic emancipation is going great guns. As far as the middle-class Paharis are concerned, small thing here and there, for example, raiding sweet shops and subsidizing liquid petroleum gas will keep them happy and content.

In a country where politicians are increasingly perceived as scoundrels, window dressing with austerity measures like riding Mustang will continue to be appreciated. Who cares whether there are revenue streams to pay for the so-called progressive programs? It is all about revealing grand intentions rather than showing how these grand intentions will actually be translated into sustainable practical actions and paid for. They are never audited. Listening to people’s plight will make their heart lighter but getting their plight addressed is what people are more interested in. Has anybody, including the media, actually looked into how many of the grievances made through “Hello Sarkar” actually been addressed?If it was not for India’s heavy lifting to get the Tarai-based ethnic parties back together, Bhattarai would not have become the prime minister, at least not now. For India, Bhattarai was the logical choice amongst the Maoists because of his unflinching willingness to tack their line. Plus, by promoting Bhattarai the Indian establishment seriously believes that the internal struggle within the Maoist party will reach a peak and cause a vertical split. For India, the Maoist party is too big and too unpredictable to handle and Bhattarai is their last best bet.

Through BIPPA, Bhattarai has scored brownie points with the biggest force that he needs on his side to remain in power and politically relevant in Nepal. On principle, there is nothing wrong in signing BIPPA. Without investment guarantee, none would like to invest in a country where brainwashed hotheads can randomly shut down operations of any industry. But in reality who are these people that are threat to investments in Nepal? They are none other than people who Bhattarai and the likes got into believing that foreign investment is actually a threat to native investment and indigenous entrepreneurship. It is altogether a different thing that these hotheads have gotten sophisticated in extorting money using ideology as a cover. Instead of tightening the grip on the people he himself once trained, Bhattarai has rather decided to pay to Indian investors from state’s coffer. Can anyone think of a better way of shifting the cost and avoiding intra-party backlash? See the brilliance!

Mainstreaming the Maoists

Six months have already passed since the extension of the term of the constituent assembly (CA) and there has been very insignificant, if any, progress made in terms of drafting the new constitution. It is almost certain that the constitution will not be drafted even within the extended period. The new constitution will not be drafted for a very simple reason, and the reason is that there is no consensus among the major political parties of the ruling coalition and the Maoist party on major issues such as pluralism, federal, and economic development model to name a few. 

The ongoing contention over these issues is crucial, because the course of Nepali politics and fate of the politicians on either side of the divide will largely depend upon the kind of society we choose to be and the kind of economic model we embrace. For survival, the coalition members need a pluralistic society with an economic policy that equally promotes the development of all three sectors: Public, private, and cooperative.

On contrary, for the Maoists to thrive, regimented society with a state-led economy is a must. In many ways, the fight over the type of constitution each side wants is an existential battle that each side cannot afford to lose. And, that is where the problem lies. Unless there is a complete defeat or surrender of either side, Nepal is not going to have a new constitution, period! Even if it ended up having a new constitution, the chances of which are extremely slim, it will not be a long-lasting document. The status quo, however, is not only unsustainable but also dangerous. Existing unstable situation will further be aggravated by competitive populism, a dangerous permissiveness that tolerates criminalization of our polity and society and serious erosion of the legitimacy of the state. But breaking free from the status quo is not as simple as we would like it to be. The dysfunctional nature of the legislature and the state has its roots in the nature of our electoral process. The decision to run the circus of 601 people in the name of inclusion is where the problem started.

In a country, where political course of the country is shaped by not more than a dozen politicians, ushering inclusion was not that difficult. Unnecessary ballooning of the legislature has led to both reduced focus and effectiveness of the legislature and the government. What a poor country like Nepal needs is a smart and effective legislature and government that can introduce and implement policies and programs that are pro-people. Just to showcase inclusiveness, we have ended up creating a “loya jirga” (grand assembly) like institution that we see in tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In our case, it is even worse. The chiefs, unlike in Afghanistan and Pakistan, do not bother to show up in the “grand assembly” to solve contentious issues but direct followers to stall the progress.

The politicians belonging to the coalition prefer status quo because being in power helps them maximize their personal gain and minimize personal pain, even though the society at large loses, and is increasingly getting debilitated. The current coalition is an example of dangerously stable equilibrium. By not making any sincere effort toward promoting good governance, the current coalition is actually doing a disservice to its cause and is in a self-destructive mode. In the absence of good governance, the propertied and educated middle and upper classes that have great stakes in democracy, peace, and order will increasingly get disenchanted with the governance process and come to the dangerous conclusion that freedom and democracy are synonymous with chaos and anarchy.

At some point in time down the road, if the status quo continues, the support for authoritarianism that can bring order and peace to the society at any cost will swell, so that they can pursue their economic dreams. If and when that happens, all the bargains and backdoor dealings that have been going on to keep the current government in place will be worthless. In other words, the political parties that are supporting the current government, whose leader is more interested in jetting the globe rather than making a serious effort to solve the nation’s problems, are basically caught between the devil and the deep sea. The smartest way to come out of the current situation, which is self-defeating, is finding a right candidate that can effectively deal with the radical left and govern the nation at the same time.

The mainstreaming of the Maoist party is getting increasingly difficult not because they cannot be mainstreamed but because the path that the ruling coalition has embarked on is dead wrong. The Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and the Tarai based parties that have well adapted to Bihari-styled politics must take cues from the victory of Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister of Bihar. By veering away from caste-based politics and making good governance his main agenda, Mr Kumar has virtually wiped out all his political competitors.

The only way to mainstream the Maoists is by defeating their agenda through good governance. Instead of trying to sell socialist rhetoric, NC, UML, and other major parties should focus on promoting good governance. The larger political problem for the Maoists and the fly in the ointment to their "socialist" mantra is that more and more Nepalis are today looking to government to help with the socioeconomic and law and order challenges facing the country. If the government can solve some of these problems, the Maoist party’s base will automatically deflate. Nothing can be dumber than competing with the Maoists in selling “progressive” dreams. We all know what happened in the last CA election, don’t we?

The road ahead

Last week, in British Broadcasting Corporation's (BBC) program “Sajha Sawal”, the stalwarts of the Seven Part Alliance (SPA); Dr Ram Sharan Mahat, Jhala Nath Khanal, and Hishila Yami; were caught off guard. Sushil Sharma's simple question -- will you all retire from politics if you fail to conduct twice postponed Constituent Assembly (CA) election this time around, made them pause. It made them stop blowing their horns, even if it was for a few seconds, and forced them to reflect in their real ability to get things done.

Despite all assurances and promises to flock together this time around to fulfill people's desire to have a CA election, not a single politician that participated in the program had enough guts to say; yes, as a senior member of my party I will take the responsibility for repeated failure in not being able to meet people's desire, and thus, will retire.

Although repeated failure is an example of incompetence, none sounded like the ones who had flunked thrice in the same mission. Like his boss Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal was at his best in fence-sitting politics.

In a typical Madhav Nepal style, Khanal blamed Yami and Dr Mahat's party for the debacle and tried to project his party as the only viable alternative that can wipe-out all ills confronting Nepal. Yami appeared more aggressive than needed. Like a cornered animal, she spent most of her time hounding fellow participants, especially Dr Mahat, left and right. In a typical leftist style, with help of jargons such as progression, regression, inclusion, she tried her best to justify her party's run away from the CA election in November of 2007.

Yami repeatedly mentioned people as a wise lot, but did not refrain from trying to fool the very same people by justifying the CPN (Maoist)'s run away from the CA election scheduled for last November. Are we that stupid not to know why the Maoists ran away from CA election in November? Madam, give us a break.

Dr Mahat at times came down heavily on the Maoists' duplicity and dubious character but had nothing new to say. Later on during the program, he joined the chorus to assure the seriousness of the SPA in conducting the CA election this time around.

Last week's program clearly revealed two things: (1) the confidence of the ruling coalition in its ability to conduct CA election (2) honesty of the stalwarts of the ruling coalition. Like in the past, the ruling coalition wants to assure the people that they will pull it off. But there are very few buyers this time around. How can people be assured that the CA election will not be postponed this time around when the politicians that are supposed to conduct election are not themselves confident enough in their ability to it? What is even more troubling is their lack of honesty and sincerity towards the people, who deserve truthful assessment about the prospects of CA election, if nothing.

Is it practically feasible to conduct a free and fair election in less than three months in the current situation whereby the presence of the state is confined to the Kathmandu valley? Populist politics is at its best in Nepal. Strange but true, no politician wants to be the bearer of any unpleasant news. So, instead of banking on politicians' assurances, why don't we do our own analysis?

There are two major hurdles in the path of successful completion of CA election: (1) the ethnic dissent in the tarai (2) Insincerity of the Maoists. The security situation in the tarai is deteriorating at an unprecedented pace. Civil servants in various tarai districts are being extorted, abducted and killed. Many government officials in the tarai are devoid of civil servants. In a context whereby the polling officers to conduct the election in the tarai have publicly said that they would not abide by the government's instructions and have threatened to resign, how is the government going to conduct the election?

The spiraling security dilemma will become particularly intense and at some point, it is likely to move to outright conflict if the condition is not improved. Unless the tarai issue is addressed amicably and the participation of credible political forces such as the Madhesi People's Right Forum and Tarai-Madhes Lokantrik Party is ensured, there are very slim chances of conducting the election in the tarai.

Election is not an end in itself. Its results without the participation of the ethnic parties, at best, can be called as partial mandate. The issue of credibility will continue to haunt the SPA like it did King Gyanendra if the political participation of those outside the ruling alliance is not ensured. And, the reverence of the constitution will always remain in question if crafted without the participation of the certain segment of the society. It will not be able to survive as the supreme law of the land for long. Sooner or later, it will have to be scrapped or amended substantially.

Another major hurdle in the path of CA election is Maoists' insincerity. Despite signing forty plus agreements with the mainstream political parties, understandings in the paper have not turned into reality. Based on the Maoists' track record of adherence to the peace process, it cannot be ruled out that the Maoists will again abort the prospects of CA election.

The fear of defeat in the CA poll forced the Maoists to make U-turn from their earlier commitments and scuttle it. Since then, things have not changed much in the favor of the CPN (Maoist). The very minute the Maoists realize that they will not emerge as a major political force, they will scuttle the process. As a matter of fact, they may do that even before. There is a big probability that the Maoists will make integration of their combatants into the NA and walk out of the government once they pocket around 2.15 billion rupees as salary/arrears for their guerillas. They may put forward kicking King Gyanendra out of the palace as the new precondition for election, and leave the government. Based on the Maoists' track record, which is full of duplicity and dubiousness, these scenarios cannot be ignored altogether.

Furthermore, Prachanda's recent revelation about his admiration and reverence for Lenin raises more questions than it answers. Like his reverend leader Lenin, who grabbed the power after dispensing his opponents and dismissed the constituent assembly, Prachanda too might be toying with the idea of scuttling the CA poll and annihilating the political rivals within the SPA.

For radicals, things appear in black and white, grey areas do not exist. They can only visualize the birth of Lord Buddha or Junga Bahadur Rana. Non-violent Gandhi that freed millions of Indians crushed by the British Empire does not impress them. As Buddha is not the right person to tame the people that are posing a serious threat to the existence of his brainwashed cadres and militias, he might try to justify the need of Junga Bahadur Rana and prove his relevance.

The road to successful CA election is a thorny one. The ability of the mainstream political parties to force the Maoists adhere to the agreements and ensure the participation of the political parties outside the ruling alliance will determine whether or not the CA election will be held this time around. Failure to do so will plunge the nation into a political and constitutional crisis.

In order to save Nepal both from the dictatorship of the proletariat and the 'guardian coup', whereby the military steps in with the goal of restoring public order, reducing corruption, or fighting insurgents, civilian power must be wielded legitimately. For that to happen, the April CA election must take place, and they must produce credible results. Should this election be postponed/cancelled or the poll lacks credibility due to the lack of participation of parties outside the SPA coalition, then the transition risks derailing and no further possibility can be ruled out.

Freedom to be unaccountable

Never in the history of the nation before, were we so weak, so vulnerable, and so helpless like we are now. The reason behind our misery is that we have faulty institutions, unaccountable and irresponsible politicians. Be it home grown political parties or institutions such as the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) set up supposedly for our betterment by the external players, they all are malfunctioning either by design or by default. How does it matter whether it is by design or default as long as it is malfunctioning?

Surprisingly, every institution operating within the geographical boundary of Nepal wants more power and a greater role for themselves. Forget about the political parties that are fighting for themselves rather than poor Nepali citizen for a second, UNMIN too is demanding a greater role now. UNMIN now wants to get involved in what Martin calls as a "security sector reform." Forgetting UNMIN's dismal performance in "insecurity sector reform" (harvesting weapons from the Maoists and getting the real guerillas inside the camp), Martin now wants venture in another arena. What a joke!

By housing underage children and letting the real guerillas that wreaked havoc on peace and security of the nation off the hook, Martin's UNMIN has not only bled the state exchequer but also seriously weakened the security situation. So, the time has come to remind Martin that he should be focusing on the job at hand and execute it satisfactorily rather than seeking a greater role. He got to be told -- do what you are supposed to do well first. It does not make any sense to give additional responsibilities to those who perform a second class job.

As far as political parties are concerned, they are still busy engaging themselves in deal-based politics. The Nepali Congress (NC) longs for bygone era whereby it enjoyed absolute majority and did much less than what it actually could do to change the face of this hungry nation.

During the NC's rule, while the party leaders were getting millionaires by abusing power, rural populace in hinterland were getting brainwashed for armed struggle. NC's top brass didn't care about either of those. NC's top brass, most of who grew up and got wiser reading "Hindustan times" and "Dainik Jagaran" newspapers in Banaras might have thought that, with newfound money and muscle power, like in India, they would remain unchallenged forever. Needless to say, they cared least about the ideological decay.

In the changed political context, the NC, as an institution has nothing new to offer. It neither has enough new faces that can stand up and vouch for social democratic values and pluralism, nor can it utilize the same old tainted faces that abused the power to enrich themselves to energize the democratic base.

The only card that the NC has and which might work well in its favor is, standing up against the political left's grand design to choke people's freedom. There are millions in Nepal that are nervous about the political left's grand design to laden people's democracy.

So, the NC still has a space to operate and a chance to regain its past glory and popular backing. The rank-and-files within the NC should empathize with the suffering of the people rather than surrendering its political space forever for the sake of coalition. The likes of Krishna Sitaula within the NC are playing the politics of fear to bolster their own political footings at the cost of ideology and democracy. They are yet to realize that there is no alternative to the politics of ideology based struggle.

The CPN (Maoist) had a perfect opportunity to become a dominant player in the national politics, which they completely blew off. People had already seen and become fed up off the NC and the UML's misrule. The enormous success that the Maoists achieved in their early days of struggle was partly because the major political parties had failed to fulfill people's aspirations. People wanted a change and the Maoists had to some extent convinced people that they are for a change. The blunder that the Maoists made was that they tried replicating the same formula that Mao had experimented half a century ago even after signing the 12-point agreement. What they failed to understand is that, out of many things, the success of political formula is contingent upon time and space.

There was no need for converting People's Liberation Army (PLA) into a Young Communist League (YCL) and trying to do what Mao did half a century ago after the safe landing. This is mainly because, in the current geopolitical context, you cannot rule by threatening and discouraging people.

Forget about YCL, even the entire PLA will not be able to capture the power and hang in there forever. It is simply not feasible. So, it was a gross miscalculation on the part of the Maoist leaders to try to replicate the same tactics adopted by Mao in China, where people had no clue about democracy and democratic rights unlike in the modern day Nepal. All it needed was, tongue of the UML, which can rotate 360 degrees and adherence to democratic principles. Sooner or later, it would have come to come the power. It took Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) almost 20 years to come to capture power in Delhi. In politics, patience pays off.

For Prachanda and Babu Ram Bhattarai, the ongoing struggle might be an ideological one, but there are tons in their party, for whom, insurgency is a business opportunity. They virtually had nothing to begin with but have every thing -- muscle power and money now. For the sake of their newfound status and money, they will do everything to prolong the war. For them, war and insecurity has economic incentives. Plus, their families are comparatively safe. Why would they care about the safety of others and over all economic progress of the nation, which in their eyes is, run by feudal elites?

Time has come to do a real cost benefit analysis. Is it worth, or for that matter even possible, to keep the dreams of capturing the state alive among the cadres when the reality is that, an ambassador of a neighboring country can make you all crawl to his office to listen to his dictates?

The UML is the one that is in the most awkward position and will be the biggest loser if it doesn't mend its ways. By succumbing to the pressure of extreme left leaning ideologues within the party and tailgating the Maoists, the UML is losing both its support at home and credibility abroad. Why should UML's cadres remain on board when there is no difference between their party and the Maoist party? Sooner or later, they will join the one that is enjoying the limelight rather than guarding a sinking ship. From the stand point of communist ideologues, it makes no sense. Thus, by adhering to the politics of fence-sitting, the UML is doing a disservice to itself and its cadres. It should move away from a politics of fence-sitting to one of active political engagement if it wants to protect its credibility and further erosion of its political base.

Last but not the least, the problem lies within us and we should seek solution from within. The crux of problem is that, political parties want to enjoy power without being held responsible to the constituents. Surprisingly, they want to remain in power forever without seeking people's mandate. There is very little that foreigners on ground and consultants that charge hefty amount can do when it comes to correcting such self-serving behavior of Nepali politicians. Unless the freedom to be irresponsible and unaccountable is curbed, the ongoing mess will continue in some form or the other. Does anyone have a better idea on how to curb the existing irresponsibility and unaccountability amongst the Nepali politicians?

Freedom on the brink

It is more than sad, it is heart-wrenching to see journalist Birendra Sah's spouse plead for her husband's safe release. The plight of two innocent children accompanying their mother can clearly be seen in their eyes. Sah's wife has virtually knocked every "major political players' " door, but all she has been getting so far is- false solace. No one knows where the shoe pinches except the wearer.

The parliamentary probe panel's report is in and perpetrators have been identified. The Maoist comrades have done it again, not a surprise though. As a matter of fact, they never stopped it altogether. The Maoists' loot, intimidation, and infliction of physical harm on innocent civilians never waned; it is us who got unrealistically optimistic about their need for peace and chose to ignore their atrocities. Lessons to be learned: turning blind eyes on crimes never ensures establishment of a peaceful and just society.

Everyone, including Prachanda knows who the perpetrators are, but the ordeal of Birendra Sah's wife continues unabated. While a hapless woman is crying for help, Prachanda seems to be more interested in political bargain rather than exhibiting some decency and securing Sah's release from the clutches of his ill-trained, irrational, and inhumane cadres. Sad but true, with passing of each day, the hope of Sah remaining alive is getting slim.

Birendra Sah has become a poster child of the Maoists' heinous crimes in Nepal. While the so-called international community is evaluating the Maoists' commitment towards peace, human rights, and democracy, the Maoists' indulgences in criminal activities clearly show that they are least interested in how international community grades them. In a way, it makes perfect sense. When you can commit crimes against humanity (killing of thirteen thousand innocent Nepalese cannot be justified by giving it a political color) and not only get away with it, but get rewarded with seats in parliament, why care about the international community's grading system and its grade book?

It might be hard for some of us to understand why the deviant like the ones that abducted Sah within the Maoist party camouflage themselves with radical belief system and lock-step in line with a black-and-white, simplistic belief system espoused by their radical leaders and go to an extent of abducting and killing fellow citizens. It is done so to fulfill political purpose-silence the possible dissents.

In order to understand why the Maoists are doing what they are doing-extorting, intimidating, and kidnapping- it is important to understand "totalitarian mindset." Carlos Alberto Montes, in his article, Was Fidel good for cuba?, in the Journal of Foreign Policy, documents that there are currently 300 political prisoners languishing in Cuban jails-including 48 young people for collecting signatures for referendum, 23 journalists for writing articles about the regime, and 18 librarians for lending so-called forbidden books. Fear is the method of political and social control used by the radical communists. So, when the communist ideologues harm journalists, it is not an accident, but a well crafted strategy to silence the flow of truth. It is necessary to stop the circulation of truth, or else, radical leftist propagandas and white lies get trashed by the journalists and independent-minded intellectuals.

It is not a secret that communists dislike free press and independent-minded intellectuals. Vladimir Putin in Russia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela have already silenced once vibrant independent media in their respective countries. When proletarian communist state is the goal, free press and independent intellectuals are the biggest hurdles. Hence, abduction of journalist Sah is just a preview of what is in store if the Maoists have their field day.

People from every walk of life should support the protest programs spearheaded by Federation of Nepali Journalists (FNJ). It is not all about Umrawati Devi Sah, wife of abducted journalist Birendra Sah, but also you, me, and ordinary Nepali citizens, whose wife love their spouses not lesser by any measure than Sita Dahal and Hisila Yami love Puspa Kamal Dahal and Babu Ram Bhattarai. The time has come to rise and protest so that no other women and children in Nepal have to go through what Birendra Sah's innocent wife and children are forced to go through.

The journalists in Nepal should do what the Monks did in Myanmar. Let the whole world see the real face of the Maoist party. Let the international players that forced the marriage between the democrats and the radical communists see that, moderation of radicals is not possible through their appeasement. More you give, more they will demand. Their insatiable thirst for power is boundless.

You have to force change. The change is not only possible, it is desirable. The younger generation that is well educated and is in their 20s and early 30s do not want to be heroes in a tale of romantic exploits of an absurd system that the Maoists want to impose and from which everyone want to escape. The current generation has all moral and material incentives to contribute to change. All you got to do is, ignite the fire for freedom and democracy in their belly that has gotten cooler, but not yet frozen.

Those who believe that abduction of Birendra Sah is an isolated incident carried out by the outcast Maoist cadres stubbornly refuse to see what is already before their eyes. This is not the first time that the Maoists have targeted journalists. From Dikendra Thapa to Birendra Sah, we have seen it all. By targeting one at a time, the Maoists are engaged in dress rehearsal to see how the media can be gagged alternatively. It has been proved that they can go to any extent. We have seen them do to a journalist what psychologically deviant and religiously indoctrinated Islamofacists did to twelve innocent Nepalis laborers in Iraq couple of years ago.

The time has come to counter the fear that the Maoists are trying to instill in journalists and independent-minded Nepalis. Do not go by what Maoists say, but what they do. We all know from our elementary school lessons that, "actions speak louder than words." Sah's abduction has forced people to reckon with the realization that the Maoists' lip service to freedom and human rights is hogwash.

We should fight for our freedom. Freedom matters because it is fundamental to the existence of democracy and the respect of human dignity. It means the freedom to express our discontent with the status quo and the desire to change it.

White lies and false propagandas are the weapons that radical communists use to achieve their goals and sustain their shallow regime. People familiar with the Cuban history know that Fidel Castro led revolution against then Cuban president Flugencio Batista to what Castro called as restoring freedom in Cuba and for reinstating the constitution of 1940, not to create a communist dictatorship. What Castro did after that is a history. This is just an example of how radical communists operate and how good they are at deceiving people. We may still chose to believe the Maoists' concocted story of how outcast cadre committed the crime but there is a cost attached to it. Are we ready for a Cuban experience yet?

Political equality & election systems

It is not very difficult to understand why the Maoists want to hijack Nepali citizens' right to self-determination and want to declare the country republic through the interim parliament. The Maoists want to declare the country republic through the interim parliament because they want to create a political vacuum and fill it. Politically, it is a no-brainer. But why would a party with a goal of establishing a proletarian communist state remain adamant on its demand for proportional electoral system, which is supposed to be one of the best systems to ensure the quality of democracy, might be a bit difficult for some to understand.

Is the election system the culprit behind the current political and social inequality in Nepal or the ongoing rambling is mainly because the electoral system that will be adopted is going to determine the political future of the major political parties? Later is the case. Electoral system matters for political parties because it impacts the distribution of seats in parliament, which in turn influences cabinet durability. In other words, electoral system is not value neutral: It determines the method in which votes are translated into seats and who gets into the parliament and who gets out.

Theoretically, Proportional (PR) system ensures political and social equality better than Majoritarian (MR) system, but is that why the Maoists are after PR system? There is no basis to believe that. When the Maoists are reluctant to accept ethnic political outfits --MPRF and NIFIN -- as legitimate political force and do not want to push for the fulfillment of their legitimate demands, there is no reason -- at least now -- to believe that the Maoists want PR system for ensuring the political and social equality.

Furthermore, when the Maoists do not want to embrace parliamentary democracy and want to ultimately establish a proletarian communist state, on what basis should people of Nepal believe that there is no hidden motive behind the Maoist demand for PR system? As the Maoists are very good at exploiting the system and changing the rules of engagement, the current demand for PR system cannot be judged on the basis of PR system's impact on democratic quality. We have to factor in the Maoists' motive into the equation. It is not about what the PR system can do but what the Maoists want to do with the PR system.

Needless to say, the Maoists have turned Nepal into "Guinea Pig" on which they have been conducting all sorts of experimentation without realizing the future political and social repercussions. What the Maoists in their blind quest for power are not realizing is that, when you try too many things, too fast, you overwhelm the system, which then starts producing negative outcomes. One such example is the division of the state along the ethnicity. The Maoists had hoped to buy unequivocal and ever lasting support of ethnic groups by dividing the nation along the ethnicity, which obviously did not happen.

On contrary, their short-sighted politics backfired and they lost total control in tarai.

Both PR and MR systems have their advantages and disadvantages. Arend Lijphart, in his influential study "Patterns of Democracy" empirically demonstrates that, PR systems are associated with a higher quality of democracy than MR systems. On the other hand, Guy Lardeyret, a staunch supporter of MR system argues that, in MR systems, the political power is concentrated in the hands of a majority, which is unified, with decisive leadership and hence coherent policies and fast-decision making can be promoted. MR system has better chances of having responsive and accountable governments than the PR system mainly because the party in power has to bear clearer responsibility for policy-making.

Furthermore, elections in MR system provide citizens the right either to renew the term of incumbent government or to "throw the irresponsible idiots out." MR system, thus, strengthens the link between constituents and their representatives and ensures accountability.

When it comes to comparing MR and PR systems, there is no universal consensus. Theoretically, MR systems are better at governing, whereas PR systems are better at representing. According to Joel Barkan, proportional system is not the most appropriate for agrarian societies with a relatively low level of development and a large illiterate population. It simply does not produce desired results in representation, accountability, and government effectiveness. As the seats are allocated from the party lists based on the party's proportion of the national votes, representatives are not recognized and cannot be held accountable for residents of a specific constituency. Thus, the weak linkage between representatives and constituents reduces the prospects for the quality of democratic system.

According to MG Schmidt, one of the major drawbacks of PR system is that, in PR systems, accountability tends to evaporate in countless networks, bargaining and search of compromises.

When it comes to the electoral system that is suitable to Nepal, agrarian and ethnically divided society like ours needs MR systems, at least for some years till we have larger pool of educated and well informed voters and competent politicians. In a country like ours, whereby we have a history of a majority government not completing its designated term, more party in the parliament means slow legislative process, increased indecisiveness on issues of national importance, and the chances of frequent dissolution of the parliament and cabinet.

Taagepera and Shugart (1989) empirically demonstrate a direct impact of number of parties in parliament on government durability. According to their "inverse square law to cabinet durability," the number of potential inter-and intra-party conflicts equals the square number of effective parties, and the cabinet durability is reduced by half when the number of potential conflict doubles. In other words, the more parties in the parliament the more conflict between and within these parties, and the more conflict in the parliament, which in turn tremendously increases the chances of brining down the government prematurely. Can an impoverished Nepal afford to have frequent elections?

We must adopt a system that works best in the socio-political context of Nepal rather than one that is theoretically sound. In a country whereby a majority government cannot last for a complete five years, having more parties in the parliament will be a recipe for disaster. It will take partisan politics, which is already at its worst form, towards even more ugly and chaotic direction. Democratic stability will be a mirage due to increase in intra-and inter-party conflicts.

What we need at this point in time is: a responsible, accountable, and efficient government that can maintain law-and-order and come up with sound economic policies to spur economic growth. As far as political equality is concerned, it all depends upon politicians. As long as they keep on distributing the seats in the parliament reserved for civil society members and members of professional organizations shamelessly to the politicians of their own party like they did during the formation of interim parliament, the talk of political equality does not have any relevance. We may have best system in place, but unless the existing insincere behavior of our politicians changes, political and social equality will remain an elusive dream. It is not the electoral system that fails democracy, but politicians that are supposed to abide by the democratic principles and make the institution of election properly work.

Progression or Retrogression?

When it comes to the current situation of the country, the nation is highly polarized. The opinions you get depend upon the social class of the persons you ask a question. If you ask politicians you will get a response describing a rosy picture; but if you ask the general public the chances of you getting an optimistic or upbeat response are very slim. The security situation is deteriorating at an unprecedented pace, the entire nation has been turned into a open killing fields whereby the Youth Communist League (YCL) and Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha's cadres can kill anyone and everyone who dares to dissent without impunity.

People are nervous about the future like never before. During the heights of the Maoist insurgency, people in the hinterlands were the only ones that were forced to embrace the false sense of security bestowed by the Maoists. But now, with each passing day, the YCL is getting more irrational in its quest to gain control over the city dwellers to force the false sense of security. So, it's not only the rural folks that are victims of the Maoist atrocities but also the city dwellers that are forced to cope with the Maoist irrational, whimsical and cheap popularity stunts.

Everyone believed that bringing the Maoists into the mainstream would mark an end of the era of violent politics, which has now proved to be counter intuitive. The situation is getting complicated day by day. With the decaying law and order situation in the country, the numbers of armed groups are increasing rapidly. While the general public is trying its best to remain optimistic about the future, the indicators that portray peace and security paint a gloomy picture. According to the Failed State Index, 2006, constructed by the Fund for Peace, Nepal is in 20th position, which is 15 positions up from the 2005 position. In 2005, Nepal was in 35th position.

In theory, a nation that is governed under democratic principles and striving for an inclusive democracy should be moving away from becoming a failed state. But in our case, we are inching closer to being a failed state. If we see the list of the nations that rank the highest in the failed State Index, it becomes evident that these nations are either engulfed in deadly conflicts or they are ruled by dictators. But in the case of Nepal, although the conflict has officially ended, there has not been any positive improvement in indicators for peace and security. It's sad but the bitter truth of the day that Nepalese people are forced to take with a grin of salt.

While the politicians are tirelessly talking about the need of democracy and swearing on to fight for it, the nation is moving up on that list and getting closer to becoming a failed state. There seem to be an incongruity between what politicians talk and what they actually can deliver. Call it insensitiveness or incompetence on the part of politicians, it's your call, but there is something seriously wrong with the ways our politicians operate.

Instead of working together towards securing peace and stability in the Nation, the top leaders--Girija Prasad Koirala, Madhav Nepal, and Puspa Kamal Dahal of major political parties--Nepali Congress (NC), United Marxist Leninist (UML), and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) are engaged in deadly tussle of fulfilling their own ambitions. While Girija Prasad Koirala is striving for a political legacy, Madhav Nepal is obsessed with Prime Ministerial chair. The new entrant to this deadly tussle of fulfillment of ambition is, the chairman of CPN (Maoist), who wants to become the first president of, yet be declared, Republic of Nepal. While the ambitions of our leaders are on astronomical rise, the aspirations of general public are getting dashed away. The nation is caught into the vortex of violence.

Among these three politicians, Girija Prasad Koirala is the one that is not at the receiving end. He gambled his six decades of his political career to join hands with the radical communists, Maoists, for the greater good of the nation. But now, his partner of the peace, the Maoists, are busy blaming him for the failures and threatening to walk away from the government. The political lefts' gauntlet is out against Koirala. The only option, he has at hand, which would help him establish a legacy is to unite Nepali Congress (NC) and Nepali Congress (Democratic). This would help energize the democratic base and might ensure a decent outcome in favor of the NC during the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections. Instead of focusing too much in grooming his daughter as a successor, he should work towards reviving the NC's base. If she has the capability, she will emerge like Indira Gandhi did in Indian politics or else she can live a mediocre life like the siblings of former prime ministers in India such as Chandra Sekhar and Viswonath Pratap Singh. Koirala should not gamble the future of the Nepali Congress just to establish supremacy of his daughter. Many people besides Koirala clan have shed their blood and sweat to get the NC where it is now. So, instead of focusing too much on keeping reign on family member's hand, Koirala should work towards establishing a political legacy. Out of many things, time is definitely not on his side. Except for putting a bold fight against despotic monarch in the April, 2006 revolution, there are not many positive things younger generations know or would like to remember about the octogenarian prime minister. The accusation of grooming corrupt politicians will not simply go away. Many of his cabinet colleagues of the last 15 years are the biggest “Rags to Riches” Story. They skillfully improved their living standards, which would have been impossible if done through legal means. Koirala might not have enough time at his disposal to get rid of tainted faces from the party, but what he can do and should do is, unite both the factions of Nepali congress and let the leadership evolve on its own. Nepalese people will eventually take care of corrupt politicians by voting them out.

As far as Madhav Nepal is concerned, nobody takes him seriously except for his own cadres. He neither has consistency, nor clear vision and agendas. The only agenda, he seems to have is to, become a prime minister. And, all he knows and does is spit venom on others, especially Koirala. He neither appears like a prime ministerial material, nor carries himself like one. He needs an extreme make over on all fronts. He needs to work on his outlook, his position on issues, and his level of consistency on political issues. The days are gone where peoples' opinions were shaped by vernacular weeklies like Bimarsha, Deshantar, Drishti, and Janastha. Now, people are smart enough to figure out the level of competence politicians have and hidden agendas they pursue.

Puspa Kamal Dahal's ambition of becoming the president of, yet to be declared, Republic of Nepal is more dangerous than that pursued by Nepal. Nepal's tongue lashing is much less harmful than Dahal's calculated move of using YCL to silence dissents and provide false sense of security. There is nothing wrong in having an ambition but the steps he is taking to get there is anti-democratic. The killing of a Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D) district committee member by the Maoists in Humla district and YCL's unabated highhandedness clearly shows that Dahal is using YCL's muscle as mighty ladder to fulfill his presidential ambition, if the nation of republic Nepal ever realizes.

The current chaotic situation begs for a question: Are we really progressing or regressing? The politicians might not care, whether they be a president or the prime minister of the failed state Nepal, but the people do care about it. They want a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic nation for themselves and the generations to come. The April revolution of 2006 was for democracy and prosperity, not to fail as a nation. If our goal was to fail, we would have failed sooner at the hands of King Gyanendra. Thus, the Fund for Peace's Failed State Index should be perceived as a wake up call. It is never too late to right wrongs.

Redefining the Acronym

Finally, the uninterrupted run of Sita Ram Prasain has come to an end. The Maoists-affiliated Young Communist League (YCL) on Monday handed over “wanted man” Sita Ram Prasain to police for necessary action. The YCL's act of handing over Prasain to police has drawn wide range of comments and criticisms from all quarters of the society. Prime Minister Koirala seems to have gotten so furious that he went to the extent of redefining the acronym “YCL”-Young Criminal League.

The Nepal Rastra Bank had asked the Nepal Police a long time ago to arrest Prasai for wrongful disbursement of loans worth 280 million rupees. Incompetence, corruption, and the undue influence of politics inside the institution of Nepal Police had so far eluded the arrest of Prasain. So, is it a good or bad action on part of YCL?

There is, no doubt, that YCL has been indulging in various illegal acts but this act of YCL should have been praised rather than condemned. YCL has done what Koirala's home minister and Nepal Police that feed on tax payers' money and whose first duty is to arrest wrong-doers could not or were unwilling to do. By acting as a moral police and handing over Prasain to police, YCL did infringe the state's right to maintain law and order, but how bad it is, when the state is turning a blind eye on criminals? Thus, before laying the blame for this one squarely on YCL, it is necessary to analyze the case in its entirety.

Who is the real culprit: YCL, who got hold of Prasain, who had breached the integrity of the position of chairman of Nepal Cottage and Small Industry Development Bank (NCSIDB) and blown off tax payers' hard-earned money or Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's home minister and Nepal Police that failed to bring Prasain and the likes of him to the justice?

The inability of Nepal Police to take action against Prasain despite his several public appearances is a severe blow to the rule of law and fight against corruption. Recent photographs of Prasain in public places and the herd of politicians gracing his lavish parties for free food and drinks have clearly revealed his close and unholy relationship with the politicians. In one of the recent parties that he threw at a five star hotel, among the most prominent invitees were Madhav Nepal, the chairman of United Marxist Leninist Party (UML) and Surya Bahadur Thapa, the Chairman of Rastriya Janshakti Party (RJP). It shows how deep Prasain and the likes of him have penetrated into the innermost circle of the major political parties. Seeing the guests that Prasain had in his recent party, it becomes evident that, our politicians instead of draining the swamp are making it even murkier and filthier.

The corrupt officials inside the police force and the politicians that might have gotten used to the free food and drinks in addition to “illegal cash” might not have liked this act of YCL, but this time around, YCL got it right. For the first time ever, YCL has done something that is in the best interests of the nation.

Some might term this as YCL's effort to earn social legitimacy to operate, whereas others might call it a public relation ploy. Whatever the case may be, the benefit of the doubt goes to YCL. In the case of Prasain, questionable conduct of the defendant was matched by many aspects of the Koirala's home minister and the police force who have been turning a blind eye to Nepal Rastra Bank's request to arrest Prasain. Where were Koirala's home minister and Nepal Police when the media was awash with the every fine details of Prasain's public appearances, his lavish parties which were thrown in five star hotels and attended by the high profile politicians and high ranking officials?

Like on many fronts, Koirala's current government is not doing enough to curb corruption. For the level of corruption to subside, you have to discourage corrupt minds. By not arresting Prasain and the likes of him on its own, the current government is fighting a losing battle against the corruption. It is not only not doing enough to discourage corrupt minds but also doing nothing to discourage a rent-seeking unholy coalition between business and politics that serves to fuel corruption in the society. Had it done enough, the politicians would have given a second thought before they attended parties thrown by an absconding “wanted man.”

Instead of following a rigorous path of ensuring that law and order applies to all, Koirala, like in the past, seems to be selective this time around too. He turns a blind eye when his men are on the wrong side of the law but wants to send a message that he is for maintaining law and order and controlling corruption. In his advent of becoming all things to people, what Koirala seems to forget is that one cannot win the battle against corruption by being selective. When you say you are for the fight against corruption and then do not do enough to make sure that “big fish” such as Prasain are punished, you are definitely sending a wrong message and encouraging the rich and famous to indulge in corruption.

We are poor not because we lack the required will, determination, or strength to succeed, but we lack equal opportunity and “rule of law”. We are poor because our leaders have been unable to stand for certain correct values in public life, values like honesty, hard work, and the rule of law. It is not a question of a couple of billion rupees that Prasain blew off but the harm corruption does by distorting our culture and undermining the “rule of law”. It disrupts the economy and destroys the morale of the general public. Out of many things, it distorts the very essence of good government and good governance. It diminishes the level of trust that general public have on government.

Whatever the reasons behind the home ministry's inability to arrest Prasain may be, the government should not set a precedence of selective justice by punishing “small fish” and letting the likes of Prasain enjoy freedom. This would reinforce the already existing notion that the rich and famous are beyond the clutches of law.

All citizens should be treated equally before the law of the land. If you can not administer justice in its entirety, do not provide a free pass to some- the likes of Prasain and make others a sacrificial lamb. It will further corrupt an already problem-ridden and a hungry nation.

New Beginning or Dead End?

After a year of political marathon, the Eight Party Alliance's (EPA) government has reached a dead end. With the CA elections in limbo, the EPA government is rapidly losing its legitimacy to govern and the notion of "New Nepal" is losing its appeal. The inability on the part of the EPA government to announce fresh poll dates has raised a question of legitimacy on part of EPA to govern.

The unmatched enthusiasm pumped among the citizens by the people's revolution-II is being deflated at an unprecedented rate. Due to the mishandling of the opportunity by EPA, the Nepali people have started concluding that nothing has changed except the names at the top. Things have changed both for the rank and files of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) that were on the run during King Gyanendra's regime and the Maoists that took cover of the nature-forests - to keep their lives and dreams afloat. The biggest beneficiary, however, has been CPN (Maoist) who got a safe landing and leapfrogging opportunity from the darkness of jungles to the corridor of the Singha Durbar.

Needless to say, EPA has tremendously benefited from the people's trust and willingness to rally behind them, but what have people gained? It is high time to balance the book. With the increase in violence, insecurity, and the government's inability to conduct CA elections, the Nepali people who have become consumers of false dreams sold by politicians have started asking themselves: Was people's evolution-II for us or for the politicians whose political careers have been choked by King Gyanendra?

While the hand-picked parliamentarians are drawing fat checks for raising hands to consent on the decisions made by the top leaders of their respective parties, the transition period meant to secure peace and ensure the long-term prosperity of the Nepali people, the populace is laden with violence, chaos, and insecurity. This further complicates the minimum conditions required for conducting CA elections. The question that arises now is how long the interim parliament and the EPA government should be in place before it is deemed that they have lost the consent of the governed? What can they do to buy the required legitimacy to govern, if anything?

Be it before the start of the Maoist insurgency, during the insurgency, or after the safe landing of the Maoists, things are same for the rich and famous and their kids. They had everything to lead a comfortable life and buy their safety. The Maoists did not inflict a scratch on the rich and famous because of their symbiotic relationship that was largely based on the money that they could extract from the privileged class.

As usual, things are normal for the privileged class now. While the sons and daughters of the rich and famous frivolously spend money to sweat themselves out in discos in the capital, the children of poor in the far-flung villages are sweating out of nervousness of not being able to keep their dreams afloat.

Thus, the biggest losers of the ongoing violence, insecurity, and the inability on the part of the government to navigate the nation towards political stability have been the poor and downtrodden populace. The sons and daughters of rich politicians and businessmen can buy one-way ticket to Western countries but what about the children of poor that are forced to waste their precious human life due to the inability of politicians to provide required opportunity to lead a meaningful life?

One of the many reasons why the plight of the indigents is not taken seriously is because most of the politicians have no clue about what it means to be a poor. While some were well off to begin with and are not in a position to understand how debilitating poverty is, others have amassed enough wealth (which would have been impossible if pursued through legal means) and have forgotten those old days whereby they had a hard time meeting basic necessities. Like the majority of politicians, the new entrants in Nepali politics (the Maoists) who successfully sold the dreams of prosperity to the largely illiterate and economically deprived populace, are not doing enough to fulfill peoples' aspirations.

They seem to not realize that their propagandist politics alone will not be of any help when it comes to building an egalitarian nation. They have no well-tested developmental model, no proven strategy to spur economic growth, no clue about how to properly redistribute wealth other than redistributing land, and no desire to secure peace which is a prerequisite to prosperity.

For development to take place there should be peace in the nation. Prachanda's dismissal of existence of other forces such as MPRF and NIFIN and his social workers turned militias are the main obstacles towards securing peace in the nation. Thus, Prachanda's claim that he would turn this largely hungry nation into a prosperous and well-functioning democracy like Switzerland is simply ludicrous. Who in the world would like to invest in a nation where shutdowns of industries by cadres of political parties happen on a mere whim, with intimidation and extortion rampant?

It did not take very long for the gain of mass movement of 1990 to dissipate. Fifteen years and we are back to square one. Hard-earned democracy did not last long because the rent-seeking coalition between business and politics served to fuel corruption and violence in the body politic of Nepal. Easy money earned through illegal means was used to sustain a new class of political elites who remained immune from the forces of law enforcement because of their political status and connection.

Like in the past, the politicians do not appear to be driven by a sense of mission to transform the society in a particular direction this time around too. If not corrected, the lack of developmental vision and the ability to secure peace amongst the current leadership, who do not seem to have learnt lessons from the past, will be compounded by their weak commitment to realize the importance of such a vision. Popular disillusionment is sure to occur like in the past which the Maoists cashed pretty smartly in their favor, mainly due to the failure of the state to deliver expected democratization of local social relations and political authority, continuing poverty and a widening gap between the haves and have-nots.

The only question that kept on lingering in people's mind after the fall of King Gyanendra's regime was, "What would our leaders do differently than they did after the fall of Panchayat regime in 1990 that would strengthen democracy and make Nepal prosperous?" And, our leaders are not doing anything differently even though the political and social landscape is not the same as it was during the early 1990s.

The time is running out for the EPA government. All the constituents of EPA should realize their mistakes and pledge a non confrontational style of politics. For any meaningful change to materialize, the centrist forces should correct their laid-back attitude, understand the need for a changed political landscape, and realize the urgency to work towards fulfilling people's aspirations. As far as the political left is concerned, it should pledge non rhetorical style of politics and stop abusing parliament as an arena for rhetorical exchanges.

It should be rather used as a vehicle for political consensus building. Furthermore, it should find ways to keep its unruly cadres within its grip. It somehow got to teach its cadres rational and civilized ways of protesting. Indulging in immoral acts of burning and destroying public property that we built through the tax payers' money is mockery of our own achievement.

If political leaders fail to understand the gravity of the situation and continued with their old habits, coming generations too will have to fight for democracy again. Failure to deliver development benefits and meet people's aspirations shall invite February 1st over and again in some form or another.

Insurgencies will easily flourish as impoverished societies are hot beds for such movements. The Maoist insurgency by no means is an end to rebellion. The desire to rebel shall stay put until the Eight Party Alliance (EPA) and the subsequent governments in the future are able to ensure peace, prosperity, and pursuit of happiness.

Nation on the brink

While the Eight Party Alliance's (EPA) government is trying hard to maintain its composure and portray things as normal, the situation in the country is obviously far from being normal. It has been more than a year since the despotic regime of King Gyanendra crumbled, but with each passing day the future of this largely hungry nation appears bleaker than ever.

People have started asking: What have we, as citizens, achieved since the fall of King Gyanendra's despotic regime?

The nation's democracy is becoming a casualty in the "crossfire" of partisanship. Peace, which the Nepali people longed for so dearly, appears no-where in sight. The outrages against the defenseless populations: the senseless robbing and murder continue unabated. Incidents of marauding raids are increasing at an unprecedented rate.

Our combined desire to have Constituent Assembly (CA) elections is in limbo due to the intra and inter-party power struggle amongst the political parties representing the EPA. Because of inability of the EPA government to secure peace, hold CA elections on time, and bring other positive changes that are long over due, people have started referring the past one year as a "lost year."

The Maoist leaders that once ran for life have become parliamentarians and ministers and are enjoying their heyday. While the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are forced to live under sub-human conditions away from their home, the Maoists that chased them away from their homes are riding imported cars — be it state owned or forcibly seized from private citizens.

The NC and UML stalwarts seem to have forgotten the promises made to ordinary Nepalis during the April uprising and are once again busy enjoying their field day in the corridor of Singha Durbar.

The Youth Communist League's (YCL) mayhem continues unchecked in the capital and elsewhere in the country. The two rival factions-the Maoists and the Madhesi People's Rights Forum — are locked in a deadly duel for power in terai. The society that once exemplified harmony is now inching towards anarchy.

To some extent, the ongoing political violence is influenced by opportunities arising from state's weakness to ensure inclusion of ethnic communities and control political nudity of the Maoists.

The government offices in terai have been shut down for months now. The Pahadis have started leaving terai, fearing their lives. The government's power and the administrative structures vital to securing the law and order are shrinking.

Clearly, the political order is being founded on and sustained by violence. In the present day Nepal, violence, not public virtue, seems to be the basis of authority. The ordinary citizens have started suspecting the ability of the government to secure peace, and the Maoist commitment towards democracy.

Unfortunately, they are forced to keep their heads down in the face of the guns that the Maoists have covertly stored and the absence of viable options.

How do these symptoms of a dying political and social order play out? The signs of morbidity are very much evident in the present political, economic, and social life. With the ongoing decay of political and social order, politics is no longer the instrument through which contending interests are conciliated in a structured framework. Investors are shying away and moving towards greener and safer pastures and people have started suspecting those that do not belong to their own ethnic community.

The only things that will be born of this condition is a regime of rapine, despotism, poverty, and powerlessness. The current situation, if not corrected, would lead to an accelerating loss of state sovereignty, concomitant decay of state institutions, and worsen communal violence that is already reshaping social relations.

Furthermore, it will slow down the democratization process, which is essential for pulling Nepal out of poverty and placing it more firmly on the path of stability and sustainable development. It is necessary to stop political violence and lawlessness, because it impedes the necessary economic development. It does so by destroying human lives, economic assets, and through penalizing the accumulation of capital and wealth.

Every society that witnesses political upheaval confronts political violence and lawlessness for a while, but if not controlled, it can spread faster than wild fire and destabilize the essential democratic foundations in long term. Thus, political violence and lawlessness syndrome should be controlled effectively, because if allowed to persist, they could destroy people's right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness.

Organized criminal groups, having nexus with the corrupt officials and politicians, will start mushrooming. Organized crimes as a result of such nexus will be extremely hard to control. A country, if infested by the twin problems or crime and underdevelopment, would have little prospects of developing into a stable and prosperous democracy.

A country like Nepal which has weak institutions is an idle breeding ground for an organized crime and corruption. Crime and corruption thrive best in unstable situations, such as the one Nepal is facing. Thus, before organized crime syndicates and warlords root into our society, the current EPA government should contain political violence and lawlessness.

Nepal is already confronted with high incidence of poverty and backwardness, and therefore, it cannot afford to get locked in a double bind of political violence and poverty. There are no easy ways out of this vicious circle. Thus, political leaders should not commit the same mistakes that they committed during the 1990s. This time around, they should do it and do it right. The Nepalis, who fought hard for democracy, do not deserve anarchy, poverty, and powerlessness.

Establishing a state's authority both in and out of the capital is an essential condition for any political order, including democracy. Building a decentralized system, through devolution of power, may ultimately be the best deterrent against future guerrilla resurgence and sudden outburst of political violence. A well functioning democracy is in everyone's best interest. Hence, the EPA government should work towards strengthening the capacity of the state in traditionally "stateless" areas in order to rein in violence and create space for an unbiased civil society to take root. It is crucial for the consolidation of peace, stability, and democracy in Nepal.