Will CA polls be 'free and fair'?

Election fever has finally hit the nation. After two years of political confusion and chaos, the chances of Constituent Assembly (CA) elections taking place appear brighter than ever. However, the major concern now is: What will happen if elections go one way or the other?

Will the Maoist radicals that believe only violence can effect political change for the people, and for whom, death of innocent civilians, children, or a land owner who owns too large a plot of paddy is simply the cost of war accept the defeat if they fail to emerge as a major political party in CA elections? Will the royalists that seem to be excited by the recent opinion poll that shows a surge in king's popularity accept the verdict of CA polls wholeheartedly if people reject monarchy? What would the mainstream political parties' like the Nepali Congress and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) do if they fail to put up a decent fight in the CA polls?

Has anybody in the mainstream political parties or the donor community thought about these scenarios and their possible fallout seriously? The game does no get over with the CA elections. Rather, the real power game will begin after the elections are over. There is a big possibility of a post-election violence like the one that happened in Kenya recently. As the real battle for the political survival will begin after the CA elections, donor community should work with the moderate political forces and the Army and come up with a post-election strategy.

For Puspa Kamal Dahal, his life-long presidential ambition is at stake, whereas for King Gyanendra, more than two century-old royal legacy is almost over. Will these pompous egoistic individuals accept people's verdict like rational human beings? There is very little room to believe that. So, it is important that we, as a nation, remain prepared for the worst.

On the brighter side, upcoming CA elections have provided a perfect opportunity for the democratic forces in Nepal to emerge as a winner. All they got to do at this point in time is to ensure that elections are not rigged by the groups that want to falsely project themselves as a major political force. Free and fair CA elections have the potential to re-legitimize the mainstream parties through a process of universal suffrage. Rigged elections will further legitimize a decade of violence.

The Maoist party is clinically dead in the tarai. It will, thus, do anything for a clean sweep in the hills. Politically, it is a do-or-die situation for them. The best way of testing the Maoist commitment towards the free and fair elections is through the deployment of the Nepali Army during the CA elections.

As the demands of every dissenting group in the tarai have been fulfilled, except for the secessionists, deployment of the NA to ensure free and fair elections should not be a problem. If there is an opposition, be sure that the opposing group definitely has something else in mind. It would be a blunder to cage a professional army that has successfully conducted elections in war-ridden countries when we need its help to identify the legitimate political forces that the people of Nepal trust to take the nation forward in the right direction.

In a situation whereby the Young Communists League (YCL) is openly intimidating leaders and campaigners of other political parties in the hills and secessionists are creating havoc in the tarai, the only way to enhance the popular participation in the upcoming elections is by making them feel safe at polling stations. And, Nepal Police under Krishna Situala's leadership is neither professionally capable, nor psychologically strong to do so.

Let us all be practical for the greater good of the nation, shall we? At this juncture, we have got two choices: (1) let the polls to be rigged out of fear that lack of political space will force the Maoists to return to the jungles (2) conduct free and fair elections and send a strong message: guns can't buy votes, ultimately you got to win the hearts and minds of people.

Radicals survive their confrontation with reality by withdrawing from society into their "sect." Irrespective of its ideological substance, radicalism as a frame of mind, exists at all times. Our success lies in conducting free and fair elections so that the people that are easily lured and indoctrinated by the radicals like Puspa Kamal Dahal, Nagendra Paswan, and Jay Krishna Goit get a message that, by raising arms against the state you can get only so far.

In a country like ours that has been a victim of bloody insurgency and ethnic divide, elections can be seminal events that, if free and fair, not only confer legitimacy on governments but also can profoundly influence political and social institutions, power arrangements, and citizens' expectations. Confining NA to the barracks at this juncture when the cadres of the Maoists and the secessionists are intimidating and annihilating political opponents will be a blunder of Himalayan proportion.

Do not make upcoming CA elections a fading shadow of democracy, by letting it to get rigged, when we are actually capable of conducting free and fair elections. Rigged elections will further squeeze the juice out of major political parties that are already dehydrated.

Like the Maoist violent means taught those groups out there that are now raising arms against the state that, raising arms against the state is not a heinous crime but a profitable political bargain, rigged elections will teach them another set of lessons: first, bring down the mainstream political parties to their knees at a gun point and then replace them through rigged elections. How good of a lesson would that be?

The Growing Crisis

The Maoist comrades have done it again. And, this time, the victim is a Swiss national Steve Jeannereet. It is a matter of national shame that we cannot ensure safety of tourists that enrich our public purse and enhance our national image.

The Maoists have killed teachers, journalists, and harassed doctors. But by physically assaulting a foreign national, they have not only ashamed themselves but also dented nation's image. When will the Maoists come to their senses? I guess it is not the right question to ask. Will they ever come to senses, unless they are forced to?

The government is trying to tighten the screw on rebels in the tarai while providing a free pass to the Maoists to engage in criminal activities. This strategy will eventually backfire. It will make easier for the rebel groups in the tarai to manipulate young unemployed youths in the name of ethnic discrimination. If the government cannot ruffle Puspa Kamal Dahal's feathers, it should not set a dangerous precedence of selective justice by targeting Madhesi rebels.

There is no difference whatsoever between Puspa Kamal Dahal and Nagendra Paswan's men. They are all engaged in criminal and anti-social activities. They have blood of innocent people stained in their hands.

The current government has completely failed to maintain law-and-order in the country. One thing that the current government is good at is -- provide compensation to the victims of Maoist crimes. If the prime minister or the home minister had to pay compensation from their pockets, then they would feel the heat. To give away taxpayers' hard-earned money does not seem to bother them a bit. This is height of irresponsibility and unaccountability.

If the Maoists are responsible for committing crimes, the current government is responsible for turning a blind eye on their criminal activities. Needles to say, both are at fault. In order to make the Maoists more responsible, the government should deduct the amount handed over to the victims' family from the money that the Maoists receive for their men confined in the camps. Let them feel the heat too. Hit them where it hurts most.

Of late, it has become evident that the Maoist leadership is not only power hungry but also hungry for money. Thousands of innocent civilians that were lured and registered as combatants have deserted the UN-administered camps, but the Maoist leadership is yet to report the cases to the government and reject payments made to support them. They blame the mainstream political parties for corruption and mismanagement but fail to see how mismanaged and corrupt their own party is. Collecting payments on behalf of non-existent combatants is a fraud in broad daylight.

It is understandable that the Maoists would not budge about it because they are financially benefiting from it. But why are UNMIN and the government silent on this issue? Neither UNMIN has shown any decency and reported the matter to the government nor has the government deemed it necessary to become fiscally responsible and stopped the payment even after media has reported it. When will the people in the corridors of power and those appeasing them to bury their own incompetence be held responsible for their screw ups?

With each passing day, things are becoming clearer: (1) The Seven Party Alliance (SPA) wants to remain in power forever in the name of peace process (2) India, after having burnt it fingers in its mission of buying unequivocal and everlasting Maoist support, now wants to teach them a lesson by strengthening rebels outfit in the tarai (3) the Maoists do not want peace and elections because of the plummeting public support. If there is peace, and free and fair elections are held, the Maoist leadership knows it very well that its bargaining power will take a nosedive. For the Maoists, chaos is profitable. It has both financial and political pay-offs.

Another thing that has become evident from the Maoists' never ending experiment is that they know what they want (capture the power and hang in there), but they don't know how to get there. That's the reason why they are engaged in never ending errant experimentation of all kinds.

The Nepalis are now in a far worse situation than they were during the Maoist insurgency. Then, we had one problem -- the Maoist insurgency. But we have uncountable groups with various motives and agendas. They are used and abused by various unseen forces to gain control. Caught in the middle is the unelected government that neither has the required mandate to force its will on people, nor has any strategy to solve the problems. What an ugly situation to be in.

India by forcing the SPA to join hands with the Maoists has created more problems than it actually had. While Nepal is failing, India wants to redefine its success. After the Maoists stopped dancing to the Indian tune, India now, wants to tighten its grip on Nepal and teach the Maoists a lesson by strengthening the rebel outfits in the tarai. India might have a last laugh by wiping out the Maoists in the tarai, but the Nepalis do not have anything to cheer about. It might be a good strategy from India's point of view, but when it comes to the people of Nepal, India will be simply replacing one devil with another. Creation of warlords has never brought peace and strengthened democracy anywhere.

With each passing day, not only our freedom and prosperity, but also our sovereignty is at stake. How much India values our sovereignty is crystal clear from its recent request to maintain a status-quo on encroachment of the Nepali soil at Susta.

Let us get realistic for a second, shall we? Had King Gyanendra agreed to dance to Indian tune like Jigme in Bhutan, Gayyoom in the Maldives, and General Than Shwe in Burma, what would have been the fate of SPA politicians? Where would they be now?

India's selfless desire towards establishing peace and stable democracy in Nepal is not as selfless as India would like it. It cares more about its grips on Nepal than anything else. It wants to administer proxy rule in Nepal through the likes of Dasho Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck, Gayyoom in the Maldives. What will it take us to realize this fact?

Ram Raja Prasad Singh has already revealed India's role in fueling the ongoing crisis in the tarai. If India really wanted peace in Nepal and respected its sovereignty, it would not deploy its intelligence agency to bring together all the rebel groups operating in the tarai and have a meeting with them in Indian soil. It would not have engaged itself in encroachment of Nepali soil. It would rather help negotiate a settlement between the rebels and the Nepali government and returned encroached soil even before Nepal approached for it.

The problem with our political leaders is that they don't believe what they don't want to believe. Ignorance is bliss and this adage applies very well to beleaguered politicians who want to conveniently ignore ground realities as long as they can. The self-esteem of the political leadership has sunk so low that it is hard to believe that the current leadership will be able to navigate the nation towards stable liberal democracy.

So far both optimists and pessimists have been proved wrong. Neither peace nor complete political paralysis has resulted. Political crises are yet to be equated with disaster. However, if the current political deadlock and insincerity among the political leadership persists, the nation will plunge into a deep political and social crisis. Nepal will disintegrate internally if the inherent malaise is not removed.

Peace or Appease Process?

One year has passed since the April revolution, but the country is going nowhere. Some might like to call the ongoing process a “peace process” but there is hardly any peace being restored through the continuous process; it would not be an exaggeration to call the ongoing process an appease-process. The Maoists have skillfully reduced the entire peace process into an appease-process whereby the mainstream political parties have been somehow convinced by the Maoists that the peace in Nepal is contingent upon the appeasement of the Maoists and the government's ability to appall and antagonize other forces that have dared to challenge the Maoists' fiefdom, in blunt words, the Maoists' existence in the terai.

Actually, the chance to establish peace was strangled the very day the mainstream political parties bought the idea that to appease the Maoists was the only way to achieve peace. One of the many reasons why the so-called ongoing peace process is failing is that the Maoists have never taken the mainstream political parties seriously and treated them as an equal partner. It's not the Maoists' fault but the fault of the politicians of the mainstream political parties, because they are the ones that are unable to portray themselves as an equal partner. The negotiations that took place prior to the Maoist joining the government were hardly negotiations. It was a complete submission by the mainstream political parties. They have nodded in agreement to everything that the Maoists have asked for so far. When you are submissive to such an extent, there is no need to take you seriously. So, the mainstream political parties should not be grumbling now about the Maoists' unruly conducts; it is they who have been providing the Maoists with a free ride on their backs.

Whether you agree or not, it depends on your political affiliation and biases. If you put down the ideological baggage and biases you carry and think as a neutral citizen, you will agree that the nation is undergoing a deep and continuous crisis. Despite all the efforts of the Eight Party Alliance (EPA) to defend the accomplishments of the past year, there is a colossal failure of EPA's effectiveness to navigate the nation and to provide solutions for economic, social, and political problems. There are no practical dividends of democracy in sight. The general public does not have the will to wait indefinitely, for the practical changes to occur; they will eventually get fed up with their ruling elites, who had promised heaven but delivered dust so far. What will happen after that is for the people to decide and the politicians to speculate.

It is one thing to remain optimistic but it is foolish to believe that the product is going to be beautiful even if the process is flawed. Just as the morning shows the day, the process shows the product. If the lawlessness, chaos, and lack of political accountability could translate into peace and meaningful democracy, most of the African nations that are now engulfed in civil war-like situations would have been thriving democracy long ago.

If you are among those who get pleasure from comparing post-revolution French or any other Western society to that of today's Nepali society, and think like France, we too are going to become a viable democracy sooner or the later, you are comparing apple to oranges. Today's Nepal is not even remotely comparable to the then French society. The political culture, societal norms, and the desire and ability to translate unstable and bitterly divided society into a meaningful democracy among the then French politicians and today's Nepali politicians is beyond comparison. In addition, the level of political accountability was way higher even then, in France, than what it is in today's Nepal. So this false solace and wishful thinking is not going to get us anywhere.

Let's get real for once. Nepal today does not need to define democracy, since the basics of democracy have been there for the good part of the last two decades. Nepalis first need peace and stability (which is not going to come through the mere appeasement of the Maoist), a safe environment to send children to schools so that they may grow up to change the face of the Nation, and the time to grow food. A free and fearless environment to progress and develop.
The current home minister, who has miserably failed to maintain law and order situation is among many that are not further pushing the nation to the edge. Sitaula, who is known for doing the Maoists' dirty laundry, is all set to execute Prachanda's new game plan now: use the army against the rebelling Madhesis in the Terai. The latest two weeks' deadline for the talks and Sitaula's threat of stringent action is nothing but a preparatory step towards the future operation of the security forces, primarily against the agitating Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), which is the main competitor of the CPN (Maoist) in the terai.

Sitaula for one is for sure digging the grave for Nepali Congress (NC) and dashing away the dreams of Nepali citizens. He is in the advent of annihilating those very people that helped NC remain in power during the post 1990 democratic era. While United Marxist Leninist (UML) maintained strong hold in the remote hills of Nepal, it was the terai that gave NC the seats it needed to remain at the helm of state affairs. Strangely, now, the NC is silent when its home minister Sitaula is all set to deploy the security forces at the Maoists' wink. What an example of gratitude the NC is exhibiting!

Sitaula might have been convinced by the Maoists that the ongoing rebellion in terai is a law and order situation. The truth that the Maoists do not want to acknowledge is that the ongoing rebellion in the terai is the result of the apathy of the elite in Kathmandu, and their failure to acknowledge the need of inclusion of the Madhesis into the process of building the nation. Leave alone the need of inclusion, for the most part, the elites in Kathmandu have chosen to ignore the existence of the Madhesis and silently questioned their nationalism. Thus, the ongoing rebellion is the result of pent-up frustration that has been brewing for a while. This is definitely not a law and order problem.

Sitaula is all set to dig a grave for himself and for the NC too. Stop him. The idea of using security forces against unarmed Madhesis will prove a disaster for the nation and suicidal for the NC. The retaliation in kind, and the mass voting against NC in the terai, is inevitable if the security forces are used against the Madhesi people that have suffered a lot, and for too long. The killing of one Madhesi in Lahan brought down the government to its knees a couple of months ago and forced the Eight Party Alliance (EPA) to amend the constitution. Think about what might happen if the security forces in its attempt to please Sitaula indulge in indiscriminate killings of Madhesis in the terai? The Madhesis will be forced to see fellow countrymen that are pahadis as insensitive and vindictive. And what might follow after that is simply unthinkable, but probable.