Will 2011 be any different?

With the end of a year also comes punditry from the usual suspects that people are often forced to consume. Getting predictions from them, who told us that the Maoists were for multi-party democracy and that the extension of Constituent Assembly (CA) would definitely fetch us a new constitution, is a bit obnoxious but that is the price we all have to pay for being citizens of an unaccountable nation. The one good thing about 2011’s predictions though is that pundits have been a lot more conservative. It is better to come across as an unintelligent person rather than to be proved wrong. Smart move, indeed!

In the absence of reliable predictions, most people are anxious to know what really is in store for the nation this year. But before moving to that, let us look at how 2010 was for certain groups of people. For Madhav Kumar Nepal and his cabinet members, the year could not have been any better. Likewise, for the 601 CA members, who were all for the extension of CA to continue their hard work (pun intended), 2010 was not a bad year either. Land sharks and ethnic entrepreneurs, too, did well for themselves in the past year. Rising land prices and degrading law and order situation provided them with an unthinkable opportunity to fleece both the state and innocent public. Politicians, land sharks, and ethnic entrepreneurs were clearly the winners of 2010 and will continue to remain so unless the existing structure is altered.

For many of the 601 CA members, the year 2010 might have been the luckiest year of their life. Why would they want 2011 to be any different? It is only the general public with fixed incomes and struggling due to rising inflation, rampant corruption and chronic power shortage who want the coming year to be different.

What about the media? Instead of reporting how the helpless Nepali citizens confronting a dysfunctional state felt about the past year and what their expectations are in the new year, the mainstream media did what it does best—fill the newspapers with predictions. Would not Nepal be better off if our journalists and pundits stopped predicting political events and politicians’ behavior and spent quality time analyzing why Nepali politicians behave the way they do and what we can actually do to correct their reckless behavior?

Politicians will not do anything different than what they did in 2010 unless the media and the general public exert pressure on them. Except for the peace assembly that forced the Maoists to end the blockade of the valley, public has been absorbing nonsense, nonstop. The more we put up with that, the more we will get it. The choice is ours. Instead of holding politicians accountable for false claims, the media often ends up regurgitating what politicians claim to be possible. If my memory serves me well, not a single newspaper analyzed the option of holding fresh election when the term of the CA was expiring last May. Instead of looking at the factors that caused inaction in the CA and sincerely analyzing whether or not it was actually possible to have a new constitution from the same set of actors, who appeared more interested in forwarding their own agendas through an extension, the mainstream media joined the political chorus. The prospects of democratic consolidation gets bleak when the media, instead of holding politicians accountable for inaction, helps them get rewarded for it.

Given the situation that the major political parties are in and the limited choice that India has at its disposal, the political stagnation that we witnessed in 2010 will continue to persist, at least till May 28th of 2011. The status-quo is not that bad for politicians as it does not stop the cabinet and 601 CA members from drawing their salaries. Neither does it affect local-level party cadres who are becoming amazingly astute and savvy in dividing commissions among themselves. It is the general public that wants a positive change. For almost half of the population that live on less than $2 a day, living in the most corrupt country in South Asia also means cutting down on basic needs. People have started taking extreme measures as the state is getting increasingly dysfunctional. Families are ending their lives for not being able to foot medical bills.

Citizens can make 2011 better than 2010 if they really want to. It is not going to happen on its own. For that to happen, people will have to do what they did to end the Maoists’ blockade of the valley last year. Unless people exert pressure on politicians and make it clear that nonsense in the name of democracy is unacceptable, there is very little chance that anything positive will happen in 2011. Pundits can, for sure, help people make 2011 better. As political winners and losers have already been picked, how about analyzing ways in which we can make winners act more responsibly and losers play by the rules of the game. Is that too much to ask for?

Mainstreaming the Maoists

Six months have already passed since the extension of the term of the constituent assembly (CA) and there has been very insignificant, if any, progress made in terms of drafting the new constitution. It is almost certain that the constitution will not be drafted even within the extended period. The new constitution will not be drafted for a very simple reason, and the reason is that there is no consensus among the major political parties of the ruling coalition and the Maoist party on major issues such as pluralism, federal, and economic development model to name a few. 

The ongoing contention over these issues is crucial, because the course of Nepali politics and fate of the politicians on either side of the divide will largely depend upon the kind of society we choose to be and the kind of economic model we embrace. For survival, the coalition members need a pluralistic society with an economic policy that equally promotes the development of all three sectors: Public, private, and cooperative.

On contrary, for the Maoists to thrive, regimented society with a state-led economy is a must. In many ways, the fight over the type of constitution each side wants is an existential battle that each side cannot afford to lose. And, that is where the problem lies. Unless there is a complete defeat or surrender of either side, Nepal is not going to have a new constitution, period! Even if it ended up having a new constitution, the chances of which are extremely slim, it will not be a long-lasting document. The status quo, however, is not only unsustainable but also dangerous. Existing unstable situation will further be aggravated by competitive populism, a dangerous permissiveness that tolerates criminalization of our polity and society and serious erosion of the legitimacy of the state. But breaking free from the status quo is not as simple as we would like it to be. The dysfunctional nature of the legislature and the state has its roots in the nature of our electoral process. The decision to run the circus of 601 people in the name of inclusion is where the problem started.

In a country, where political course of the country is shaped by not more than a dozen politicians, ushering inclusion was not that difficult. Unnecessary ballooning of the legislature has led to both reduced focus and effectiveness of the legislature and the government. What a poor country like Nepal needs is a smart and effective legislature and government that can introduce and implement policies and programs that are pro-people. Just to showcase inclusiveness, we have ended up creating a “loya jirga” (grand assembly) like institution that we see in tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In our case, it is even worse. The chiefs, unlike in Afghanistan and Pakistan, do not bother to show up in the “grand assembly” to solve contentious issues but direct followers to stall the progress.

The politicians belonging to the coalition prefer status quo because being in power helps them maximize their personal gain and minimize personal pain, even though the society at large loses, and is increasingly getting debilitated. The current coalition is an example of dangerously stable equilibrium. By not making any sincere effort toward promoting good governance, the current coalition is actually doing a disservice to its cause and is in a self-destructive mode. In the absence of good governance, the propertied and educated middle and upper classes that have great stakes in democracy, peace, and order will increasingly get disenchanted with the governance process and come to the dangerous conclusion that freedom and democracy are synonymous with chaos and anarchy.

At some point in time down the road, if the status quo continues, the support for authoritarianism that can bring order and peace to the society at any cost will swell, so that they can pursue their economic dreams. If and when that happens, all the bargains and backdoor dealings that have been going on to keep the current government in place will be worthless. In other words, the political parties that are supporting the current government, whose leader is more interested in jetting the globe rather than making a serious effort to solve the nation’s problems, are basically caught between the devil and the deep sea. The smartest way to come out of the current situation, which is self-defeating, is finding a right candidate that can effectively deal with the radical left and govern the nation at the same time.

The mainstreaming of the Maoist party is getting increasingly difficult not because they cannot be mainstreamed but because the path that the ruling coalition has embarked on is dead wrong. The Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and the Tarai based parties that have well adapted to Bihari-styled politics must take cues from the victory of Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister of Bihar. By veering away from caste-based politics and making good governance his main agenda, Mr Kumar has virtually wiped out all his political competitors.

The only way to mainstream the Maoists is by defeating their agenda through good governance. Instead of trying to sell socialist rhetoric, NC, UML, and other major parties should focus on promoting good governance. The larger political problem for the Maoists and the fly in the ointment to their "socialist" mantra is that more and more Nepalis are today looking to government to help with the socioeconomic and law and order challenges facing the country. If the government can solve some of these problems, the Maoist party’s base will automatically deflate. Nothing can be dumber than competing with the Maoists in selling “progressive” dreams. We all know what happened in the last CA election, don’t we?

Speak the Truth

The political stalemate continues unabated. While the members of the current coalition continue to stick to the demand of the dissolution of paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) and return of the property seized property, the Maoists like in the past are trying their best to get away without fulfilling these demands. Given the level of political dishonesty that the Maoists exhibit, will these demands, that have a far reaching consequences on how we live and pursue our livelihoods, be ever met? Many concerned citizens have these questions crossing their minds.

Let’s get this straight: The paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) will not be dissolved and the seized property will never be returned. There are many reasons for this, the prime being: In the Maoists’ collective consciousness, YCL is not a paramilitary force. It is a youth political force like the ones that every other major Nepali political party has. As far as the seized properties are concerned, 90 percent have been already returned. This is what the chief architect of the Maoist Party, Baburam Bhattarai said when grilled by Fauziah Ibrahim of the Al Jazeera television, recently. Is Bhattarai telling the truth? Absolutely not! There is ample evidence to support the fact that YCL is a paramilitary force. As far as the return of the seized properties is concerned, the process is yet to begin. Despite their pledge to return the seized properties, the Maoists continue to seize private properties. Ms. Ibrahim presented the fact that the latest event of confiscation occurred in May of 2010.

Bhattarai’s latest interview raises a serious question on his integrity. Bhattarai, whom many youngsters revere as the most honest politician, may not be what they believe him to be. The time has come for the bewildered youths who see political messiah in Bhattarai to take a close look at things he says and does. There is clear disconnect. It might be dangerous to chase fantasies preached by intellectual guru that believes in radical violent means to social reform and has an audacity to lie with a straight face knowing the fact that he will be watched by millions within and beyond the national boundary.

What should we expect from our politicians? Should we expect moral perfection? Or should we expect them to do the job they were hired to do? Or, the both? Answering these questions might be even considered redundant given the level of dishonesty that Nepali politicians exhibit. Despite consistent outlandish remarks and violent outbursts, Bhattarai is considered as a relatively clean and competent leader. He has been so far successful in not only charming relatively well educated youths but also keeping the Indians that call the shots in Nepal guessing. At the end of the day, he might turn out to be not very different from his current boss Pushpa Kamal Dahal, whom India groomed unsuccessfully to serve its interest.

Indians in their never ending experiment to turn Nepal into a client state are hedging their bet on Bhattarai primarily for two reasons. First, the Maoist party at its current form with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as a supreme leader is impossible to dictate. Hence, it needs to be cut down in size. And the best way to do that is by promoting Bhattarai, which they think will eventually lead to a vertical split in the Maoist party. Indian bureaucrats and intelligence operatives, especially the ones stationed in Kathmandu, seriously believe that making Bhattarai the next prime minister will bring about a split in the Maoist party. Second, Indians at this point have no bankable leader with popular mass support, whom they can rely on, to fulfill Indian interests.

Bhattarai with a straight face lied to Ms. Ibrahim. Why did he do that? He did so for a very simple reason. And, the reason is—he can afford to do so. He very well realizes the fact that he is dealing with a fragmented electorate. People whose property has been seized belong to the upper middle class and beyond, who did not support the Maoist rebellion to begin with. Plus, they are the ones that complain about the YCL’s paramilitary activities. So, why even bother about being correct?

Instead of engaging in a futile exercise of wining the hearts and minds of urban elites and “feudal” in hinterland, he talks about the rights of peasants to till the land. It is important to understand why Bhattarai and others ideologues in UCPN (Maoist) raise the issue of land reform, which they failed to act upon, while heading the government. In a country where approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line and millions are landless, the idea of land reform has tremendous political appeal. Through land reform the Maoist, want to hand out “rights” to politically correct groups (read landless and tenants). At the end of the day, by expanding the entitlements of these groups, they want to garner their undivided support and use them against other citizens that oppose Maoists’ agendas. In doing so, Bhattarai and his fellow ideologues conveniently ignore the fact that the cost of the gifts they bestow on these groups have to be borne by other hardworking citizens.

Never-ending political crisis

The nation would plunge into a bigger chaos if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is not extended. Nepali people must have heard this countless times in the past months, of course, and many must have accepted it without thinking. Life would be hunky dory and we would all live happily thereafter, political pundits and the media hinted. It was portrayed as the final hurdle to the finish line. Contrary to the political pundit and media’s assertion, the political stalemate has rather thickened. The latest deal retailed as an essential leap to bail out the country from plunging into the bigger chaos is increasingly appearing as another doomed assertion.

The gravest problem this nation faces is the inability of the so- called intellectuals and media to confront the fact that we shouldn’t resort to deals to govern the nation. Deals can be conveniently bent or broken to suit political outcomes. In a country, where the end justifies the means, resorting to deals to bail the nation out of political stalemate is itself a recipe for disaster. Where have the countless deals signed in the past taken us?

Nepalis complain endlessly about how immoral and stupid politicians are, and how badly they have lied to the public about this or that. But what we forget is that our politicians perfectly represent a nation that shows such a thoroughgoing incapacity for thought, and such an aversion to the truth about their own behavior. We seek morality and honesty in our politicians, when we, ourselves, are unwilling to confront the truth for what it is. It is high time that our political pundits and media bosses take a deep breath and try to analyze the crux of the problem before suggesting the easiest way out.

By endlessly opting for an easy way out, we are piling up the problems and letting it accumulate for implosion. Instead of letting the parties fight it out democratically in elections, we are forcing them to do backdoor dealings, which are often not followed. If one is to venture forward mentally one baby step, one will quickly come to see that the deal that was struck minutes before the expiration of CA was a political necessity more than anything else. It was not something that came out of realization of responsibility towards Nepali people. Had KP Oli not struck a deal, the UML would have witnessed a vertical split. With the migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist camp, Oli would have lost substantial amount of political capital and the backing of India that he enjoys now. For Oli, it was a desperate act of political survival. As far as Pushpa Kamal Dahal is concerned, with dissolution of the CA, his stature and the bargaining power, which stems out of the sheer number that the Maoist party has in CA, would have ceased to exist. With India and the major political parties against Dahal’s prime ministerial aspirations, keeping the CA alive was a political necessity. For the Nepali Congress, sailing with the CPN-UML was the only option at hand. Keeping the CPN-UML intact is not only in the best interest of Oli and the incumbent prime minister but also the congress party. Any vertical split in the CPN-UML and the breakaway faction’s migration to the Maoist camp shall further dwarf the NC’s stature, which is the last thing that the NC wants at this point in time. NC’s political future is very much dependent upon its symbiotic relationship with the CPN-UML.

What happened during the eve of May 28 was a desperate act of political survival. Now, that political parties have successfully bailed themselves out without spending much of their political capital, the game is on to out-fox each other. The NC and CPN-UML are all set to outsmart the Maoists in the very game that the Maoists used against them not a very long ago. The Maoists want to bounce back to the power by adhering to one of the three points in the deal—Prime Minister’s resignation—and undermining others. Whereas the CPN-UML, NC and India want to checkmate Dahal by asking the Maoists to first fulfill other points in the deal, which is virtually impossible. The power of the Maoist party and its control over the society comes from the muscle of the battle hardened fighters, whom it slyly rebranded as young communist leaguers and the loyal party members who are now enjoying the property looted in the last two decades. Why would the Maoists alienate its base and heed the demands put forward by NC and CPM-UML? It simply does not make any sense.

So far, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has kept his prime ministerial aspirations under wraps. He wants to throw his hat in the ring after the incumbent resigns. And, that is where the problem lies. Both India and politicians of the major political parties do not want Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the next prime minister. For India, he is too unreliable to serve Indian interests, whereas for others, he is too ambitious and charismatic, who they think can cut their size further down. India would immediately give its nod and other parties would follow suit, if Baburam Bhattarai was to become the next prime minister. With the major political parties at home and India in an antagonistic mode, it might be the last thing that Pushpa Kamal Dahal might want at this point in time. In a quest for a shortcut through a new set of deals, we might have embarked on a senseless political quagmire. Very soon another round of deal-making might be needed to troubleshoot the snag in the deal signed on May 28.

After all our nation is governed through deals, what’s wrong with that?

Will 2010 be any different?

Nobody can tell for sure if 2010 will be any better than the year 2009. It is difficult to predict what the year 2010 holds for Nepal not because of the uncertain nature of Nepali politics but because the power to shape Nepal’s future no longer lies in the hands of Nepali politicians. The ruling coalition, although technically legitimate, continues to remain in power despite its lethal incompetence for a simple reason - India wants it to remain in power. The government is rudderless and more interested in its day-to-day survival than anything else.

It might be intellectually taxing for external observers trying to make sense out of how a twenty-two party coalition with diverse political ideologies and agendas continue to sail through by shutting out the largest party in parliament, but for someone that keeps a close eye on Nepali politics, it is not anything puzzling or new. Nepali political parties have long been transformed into subservient clients by India and this is not the first time that they are herded at India’s behest. An inconvenient truth about Nepali politics is that over the years India has successfully transformed Nepali political parties into subservient clients.

The fall of Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government over the Rookmangud Katawal’s controversy is a clear depiction of what could happen if a party dares to outgrow its client status. The withdrawal of support to Dahal’s government by the coalition members was the inability of the members to act against the Indian directives than anything else. The politicians in Nepal know very well that acting against the master’s wishes could prove to be fatal, politically.

Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire. Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists.After the fall of the Maoist government, Dahal and his fellow comrades have been trying their best to arouse nationalist fervor for political expediency. For people, who have closely watched the inception of the Maoist insurgency and its subsequent growth over the years, the role that India played in grooming Nepali Maoist party and unleashing it as a political force is no secret. The Maoists’ and India’s path crossed when Dahal tried repeating King Mahendra’s game of playing China card against India. In doing so, what Dahal and his fellow comrades failed to understand is that the internal political dynamics and the geopolitical realities had changed drastically over the years. Unlike B P Koirala, who then was unwilling to turn Nepal into a client state, there are way too many politicians that are happy to execute that role now. Dahal and his men were way off in calculating the level of India’s penetration in Nepali politics.

Out of power, the Maoists are now playing the nationalist card to drum-up support basically to force India to engage them. The Maoists know very well that in a nation with approximately half of the population around twenty-six years in age, which boasts of Nepal’s uncompromised sovereignty, anti-India rhetoric will always play out well. For these youngsters that grew up witnessing rising political corruption, lawlessness, and increasing Indian involvement in Nepali politics, it is quite natural to fall into the Maoists’ jingoistic trap. But before falling into the trap, it is important that the younger generation try and understand what the Maoist party that grew on Indian benevolence wants to gain out of the latest nationalist tirade. It is important to make sure that the Maoist party, which would definitely not have been what is today without India’s material and moral support, uses the support of the nationalists, especially the younger generation that boasts of uncompromised sovereignty of Nepal, to safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty, but not as a bargaining chip to outbid other clients’ will to serve Indian interests.

So what does it look like in terms of achieving peace and stability in 2010? The chances are slim! The chances are slim because the party that has the majority in the parliament is yet to realize the consequences of slowing down the process of drafting the constitution. After May 28, 2010, when the term of the CA expires, the political capital that arose from CA electoral victory will no longer be there for the Maoists to boast upon. There will be no venue for the Maoists, except for the streets, to vent their anger.

The politicians of the current coalition most of whom have been reduced to poodles that are willing to tirelessly wag the tail at India’s behest will be the ones that will benefit the most if the constitution is not drafted on time. If the Maoists are real nationalists, they should realize that the best way to reduce Indian interference in Nepal is by ensuring that there is a constitution by the end of May, which will ensure future elections. The Maoists can reduce Indian interference by winning elections handsomely even though some danger of Indian-administered split of the party will always remain a possibility. Let the actions replace rhetoric this time around.Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire.

Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists. As a matter of fact, many politicians within the various political parties want that to happen. With no safe haven to seek refuge in, unlike in the past, the Maoists will be at the receiving end. The Maoists still have the real opportunity to translate the impending crisis into an opportunity. Speed up the constitution-drafting process so that elections can take place in future.

With the kind of support the Maoist party commands on the ground, Dahal can once again emerge victorious. All he has got to do is control criminal activities that the YCL and his militant labor union are engaged in. A little extra effort to win the support of educated and civilized mass that the Maoist party lacks at the moment will do no harm.If Dahal fails to the see the writing on the wall and act swiftly in the next couple of weeks, we will not have peace anytime soon. Peace will only come after India completely turns the Maoist party into one of its subservient clients ready to serve Indian interests.

No matter what it says, India wants Nepal to be a client state and they have not been this close anytime in the history of Nepal in realizing their goal.

Unite for Democracy

Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

The Maoist ascendency to the power was the biggest political surprise of 2008. The result of the Constituent Assembly (CA) poll, which was conducted without the required political preparation and adequate security arrangements by the Nepali Congress (NC) led government, shocked everyone: from immediate neighbors to the power centers overseas. As a matter of fact, the “April surprise” not only shocked the keen observers outside the country, but also the major political parties of the yesteryears, who till then thought that they were the ones that were actually mainstreaming the Maoists.

The CA election completely turned the table around. All of a sudden, benevolent appeasers, whose never ending concessions to the Maoists reduced a genuine peace process to an “appease process” were at the receiving end. An unexpected victory in the CA election gave the Maoists an opportunity to go their own way.

While the people who are aware of what radical communism is capable of delivering watched the Maoist ascendancy to the power with trepidation, gullible “coffee shop” hopping intelligentsia appeared least bothered. The defeat of democratic forces in the CA election was rationalized as a step forward in integration of the Maoists into the democratic process. The Maoists know very well as and how to garner the sympathy and support of a gullible intelligentsia and partisan civil society, don't they?

It's been almost nine months since the CA election was conducted and approximately four months since the Maoists formed the government. A question that we ought to be asking ourselves is -- are we in fact better off than we were a year ago? If the answer is no, how long should we wait before we decide to do something about the rapidly worsening situation?

Puspa Kamal Dahal, himself, has admitted that he has failed to deliver and match the people's expectations. The grand dream of transforming the nation with hydro dollars has gone bust after the declaration of energy crisis. Hundred plus hours of load-shedding per week and labor union militancy have dwarfed the possibility of foreign direct investment in the country. How will the Maoists transform the nation and provide dividends they have been promising all along? Every Nepali should be asking this question in order to come to a rational conclusion on whether or not the Maoists have what it takes to transform the nation.

The Maoists simply do not care about the sufferings of poor and the downtrodden. They gain from the unfair advantage that Nepalese people suffer from a lack of hope in the possibility of getting an authentic and good government that will tend to the grossly unattended needs of our society. What the Maoists are doing is cleverly manipulating the psychological insecurities of Nepali people. They are least concerned about how badly it hurts collective self-esteem.

Instead of taking responsibility for the failures, Puspa Kamal Dahal and his psy-war experts, are once again threatening a "mass revolt." They do so because it benefits them politically. By simply reminding of us pain, suffering and dread of future terror, they want us to eventually weaken and give in to their demands. Their ultimate goal is to capture our hearts and minds -- to convert us.

How can threat of bloodshed transform our attitudes in favor of the Maoists' worldview? Wouldn't we recoil in horror and, if anything, move farther away from sympathy toward the perpetrators of violence? Nope. Look at how jihadists in radicalized Islamic societies across the world "convert" innocent individuals to Islam by threat of death. It is just a matter of applying the tactics that works at individual level to a larger scale. It does work. The counterintuitive result of the CA election is a proof. It's been already tested on our own soil.

When Thomas Jefferson said that “people get the government they deserve,” he must have had people like us in mind, who can easily be duped. It did not take us very long to buy “revolutionary dreams” sold by the Maoists, did it?

So what is the way out? A strong democratic alliance is the need of the hour. It, however, has to have clear goals and objectives. Or else, it will be perceived as a “grand design” of fat cats within the NC, UML, RJP, and RPP to make a grand come back, and hence, will not take off. The Nepali people, who have been duped again and again in the name of salvation, deserve a detailed plan about how salvation would occur this time around. There are way too many “dream merchants” in Nepal for people to believe in.

Patience is great, but the longer we wait, the more damage gets done. The very day our southern neighbor comes to a conclusion that the China-leaning Maoist regime cannot be dislodged anytime soon, disintegration of Nepal is guaranteed. For India, its national security is more important than territorial integrity or sovereignty of Nepal.

The delay in emergence of a strong democratic alliance will cost us dearly. The Maoist party by cozying with Upendra Yadav is under a false impression that Madhesi revolt is all but over. Besides that, the Maoists do not have any moral ground to go against the wishes of the ethnic parties since they ignited the flame of dissident politics. It has to be done by an outfit that understands the threat and is genuinely interested in empowering the Madhesis. By not going after a permanent solution, the Maoists are allowing ethnic hustlers that are ready to outdo Lengdup Dorje to forward their political agenda.

By attacking media and interfering in religious tradition, the Maoists are feeling the pulse of Nepalese society. They will tell you what you want to hear, but will do what benefits them politically. The Maoist ministers' sojourn to the jail where Ramesh Babu Pant and Ramesh KC were housed clearly exhibits moral bankruptcy on part the Maoist ideologues. Don't we know already how low they can stoop?

There might still be some within the major political parties of yesteryears that think “appeasement” is the only way out to moderate the Maoists and secure the lost political space. This is a prescription for disaster. Appeasement always encourages your master to further subjugate you. If more subjugation is not immediately forthcoming in response to appeasement, it's only a strategic delay. Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

Ignore history at your own peril!

The great president hunt

It has been more than two months since CA elections were concluded. Except for the abolishment of monarchy, which was already agreed upon, political process has not moved forward by an inch so far. It appears that unless the ongoing power sharing negotiation gains some momentum and a deal is struck, pressing issues such as skyrocketing inflation and lawlessness will have to wait. In a nation where politicians' gain come before peoples' need, do citizens have a choice?

The parties involved in the negotiation are trying hard to sell their choice for the first president of Democratic Republic of Nepal. Puspa Kamal Dahal vouches for a non-political person but proposes Ram Raja Singh for the top job. Since when did Ram Raja Singh become a non-political person? June 20, 1985's bombing, for which Singh, has taken responsibility, is not something that a law abiding non-political person gets involved in. However, when compared to the death and destruction caused by the man who is proposing him for the top job, Singh's crime is minuscule.

Although Girija Prasad Koirala has not expressed his desire to become the first president himself in public, it is an open secret. As long as the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula are around, is it even necessary for Koirala and Dahal to do their dirty laundry?

The Maoists were clever enough to keep Koirala guessing when it came to the issue of the first president of Nepal for the last 2 years. What the Maoists know very well but may not acknowledge in public is that, had Koirala known that he would not become the first president, he would not have pushed for a republic as hard as he did. Had the Maoists made it clear well in advance, Koirala would have refused to become a "useful idiot." So they played it smart and played it well.

Dahal and his men do not want Koirala to become the president because they seriously think that they are the ones who brought this change, and to a large extent, they are right about it. For the Maoists, making Koirala president is like acknowledging him as an agent of change. Furthermore, it opens up a space for future intervention. Given Koirala's proximity with the international players and the Nepali Army, the Maoists' game plan of swiftly marching towards the authoritarian regime may come to a grinding halt. Why take a risk? From the Maoists' stand point, it makes a perfect sense.

No matter who becomes the first president, the power sharing negotiations should come to an end pretty soon. For common Nepali citizens, Dahal's desire to checkmate Koirala and deny him the chance of fulfillment of his desire to become the first president is irrelevant. All they want at this point in time is a regular supply of fuel, textbooks for their kids, and some degree of law and order. It is, thus, completely unjustified and immoral to overlook the problems faced by the citizens and concentrate solely on sharing the pie.

It is time to move beyond the petty politicking and address the problems faced by impoverished Nepali populace. No point beating around the bush. Do what it takes and move the political process forward. If the politicians were really serious about having a well respected and accomplished citizen as a first president, they would be proposing the likes of Ganesh Raj Sharma, who not only respected the law of the land himself but also made others do it, not someone who has been involved in bombings. When the entire process is not about setting a right precedence and selecting an individual with a strong moral character, how does it matter whether it is Ram Raja Singh or the killers of Dikendra Thapa, Jitendra Sah, Ram Hari Shrestha, or for that matter, another bomber Babban Singh?

If it is all about political correctness, then why not propose Jwala Singh for the first president? A Dalit, a Madhesi, and an insurgent. What could be a better package? For the populists who value ethnicity over meritocracy and character, it would be a super deal. It might even help insurgency in the southern plains to subside. When a former insurgent can be a prime minister, why not at least discuss the prospects of an insurgent, who happens to be a Dalit and a Madhesi for the top job?

Regardless of whom the Maoists propose, when it is all said and done, there is a big probability that the Maoists might end up accepting Koirala as the first president. They are not that foolish to blow away the revolutionary gains just to appear politically correct.

How long Koirala's legacy will last in a society, which is engulfed in perpetual revolution is, altogether a different question.

Actually, the Maoists might gain by accepting Koirala as a president. The best way to preempt Koirala's anti-Maoist moves in future is to make him the president. Koirala's lust for limelight is simply too big to be underestimated. The infamous back-stabbing of Krishna Prasad Bhattarai to secure the prime ministerial berth in one of the general elections not very long ago serves as a classic example of how far Koirala can go to get what he wants. When Koirala could not contain the Maoists as the most powerful Prime Minister in the history of Nepal in the last two and half years, why should the Maoists be afraid of him as a ceremonial head of state?

Given his age, letting him become the president might be a safer bet for the Maoists.

The very minute someone else becomes the president, seven party alliance (SPA) is unofficially over. After that, political realignment will take place. The political resistance that will start after Koirala is denied his cherished dream job might be, too soon and too big, for the Maoists to contain.

Becoming a president of the youngest republic might be a dream come true for Koirala and might benefit his blind followers, but for democracy in Nepal, it will be a disaster. Once Koirala becomes the president, the ongoing appeasement of the Maoists will continue further. Having secured the place in history, it would be foolish on the part of liberal democrats to assume that Koirala will do anything to contain the Maoists and strengthen democracy. In the last two and half years, instead of containing the Maoists by forcing them to disband the YCL and surrender all their weapons, Koirala relentlessly engaged in their appeasement, which resulted in strengthening of both the political and muscle power of the Maoists. When Koirala could not understand that appeasing radicals only makes them bolder through his half a century long political career, what will he do differently and significantly after he becomes the president to force the Maoists to change their beliefs and embrace multi-party democracy?

If it is really for democracy in Nepal, the Maoists' hardheaded pursuit of having a left-leaning individual as the first president should prevail. The political realignment will occur only when Koirala is forced out. As long as Koirala enjoys the limelight, in the name of taking the peace process to its logical end, NC will keep on rationalizing the Maoists' high handedness and the march toward authoritarianism.

Political violence: A crime that pays?

The Maoist comrades did it again. The only difference this time around is that the man they killed belonged to their own party. By killing Ramhari Shrestha in cold blood, and that too under Ian Martin’s nose, the Maoists have made it crystal clear that, they can kill people anywhere they like.

Given the secretive nature of modus operandi of the Maoist cadres involved and the Maoist party’s reluctance to hand over the perpetrators to the law enforcement agencies, the motive behind the killing might never be fully revealed. However, from media reports it is quite clear that there was a financial motive behind the killing of Shrestha. If so, what are our revolutionaries up to? Interested in jumping to a petit-bourgeois class while proletariats that voted for them en masse are waiting for their masters to alter Nepali society, by overthrowing feudal structures?

While the Maoists’ “cold-blooded killing machine” periodically exterminates educators, journalists, and businessmen, the perpetrators of the crimes never get apprehended and punished. It has become a kind of policy of the CPN (Maoist) to seek forgiveness for the crimes committed by its ill-trained and irrational cadres and get away with it. Equally astonishing is the helplessness exhibited by the state.

Be it the murder of educator Mukti Nath Adhikari, journalists duo Dikendra Thapa and Jitendra Sah, or physical assault on noted physician Dr Gyanendra Giri, has any of the Maoist cadre involved in the crime been apprehended and punished? Living in a land, where the murderers of educators and journalists walk free must be, utterly unsatisfying and psychologically taxing.

Why are the Maoists still intimidating and killing people? Will they ever stop? The people are struggling to find answers to these questions. And, the answers you get now from the top-rung Maoist politicians may not match experiences that you might encounter in the future.

If you ask the Maoists about their revolution, the chances of telling us that the revolution will get over only after the establishment of the dictatorship of the proletariat is almost hundred percent. So, in the context of perpetual revolution, will the means adopted so far be abandoned? In a country like ours, where the end justifies the means, is it even necessary to abandon the radical violence and murderous path that the Maoists have been walking so far?

Mao, the great hero and icon of the Maoist ideologues in Nepal, shortly after taking control of Mainland China in 1949, ordered the killing of millions of his political enemies, including Christians. Tens of thousands were killed during the ‘Cultural Revolution’ and approximately fourteen to twenty million died from starvation during the “Great Leap Forward.”

Likewise, Josef Stalin is believed to have killed approximately thirteen million people in various purges.

Parade Magazine, in its “The world’s 10 worst dictators” list compiled in 2005, has Kim Jong Il as the worst dictator alive. While Kim, who has developed an extreme personality cult, ranked first, Chinese president Hu Jintao and former Cuban president Fiedel Castro ranked third and ninth worst dictators. The communist dictators by no means are the crusader of personal and political freedom.

Although there is no universal consensus, it is believed that more than one million people have been killed after the junior Kim took over North Korea in 1994. There are no exact numbers, but conservative estimates suggest that an estimated one hundred and fifty thousand North Koreans are performing forced labor in prison camps created to punish alleged political dissidents.

In China, the communist party still controls all media. Thousands of “Internet security agents” are employed by the state to monitor internet use. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese are serving “re-education” sentences in labor camps across China. The recipients of such “re-education” through labor sentence, according to Human Rights Watch, have no right to a hearing, no right to counselling, and no right to any kind of judicial determination of their case. The number of executions carried out in China every year is more than all other nations combined.

Fiedel Castro executed and imprisoned thousands of Christians in his early years. Even though he allowed gospel crusades to be televised on the national television network after the worldwide collapse of communism between 1989 and 1991, the political dissidents and Christians jailed prior to 1991 are yet to receive amnesty.

If we look at one-party communist states that are revered by the Nepali Maoists, radical violence and extermination of the political opponents is the most common and successful method of political and social control. It is a method adopted by the communist dictators to preempt dissident activities that could pose a threat to the survival of their regime. By asking the Maoists to renounce radical violence and killings, Nepali people are asking the Maoists to toss away the most trusted method of political and social control. When would the Maoists give up the most trusted and tested method of political and social control? Politically, it does not make any sense.

In the last week’s BBC Nepali Sewa’s “Sajha Sawal,” Gagan Thapa argued about the ethical and psychological issues associated with the housing of YCL cadres in camps. From an ethical point of view, his arguments were strong and valid. However, what upcoming charismatic leaders like Thapa should understand is that, the YCL is created with a political purpose to weaken the political opponents and administer social control. And, as long as that motive is served, the Maoists would never dismantle the YCL.

CPN (Maoist) leader Ram Bahadur Thapa while addressing an interaction program at Reporter’s club on May 24, without mincing words made is ample clear that his party was bent on expanding the YCL as they want to win all 240 seats in the next election. Instead of arguing on psychological issues associated with the housing of youth in camps, it is time to develop a strategy that would make the existence of the YCL politically unprofitable for the Maoists. Only then, they would be forced to downsize or dissolve the YCL altogether. Till then it shall stay put. The youth leaders like Gagan Thapa should gear his energy towards oiling the youth machine for counter mobilization. Counter mobilization is the best bet and the only game in town.

The Maoists should be allowed to form the government but only after amending the existing constitution. It is true that, given the horse-trading culture of legislatures we have, replacing the two-thirds majority required for forming or changing a government with a simple majority will lead to the frequent change of the government. But it is only through the replacement of the two-thirds majority required for forming or changing a government with a simple majority, the democratic forces in Nepal can stop the Maoists from seizing the state’s instrument of force and coercion and their immediate use to destroy or control all independent sources of power, such as the social and religious institutions, the professions, private businesses, schools and of course, the family.

It may not be ethically correct to ask for it now, especially not when you are a loser. But when you have ideologues like Ram Bahadur Thapa who want to strengthen the YCL to win all 240 seats in the upcoming elections, you got to do what you got to do to survive politically and save the nation from becoming a one-party communist state.

Lost in populist rhetoric

The major political parties of yesteryears: the Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) may regret not having paid greater attention to the words of the late poet Gopal Prasad Rimal: “One day in an era…” - words which the NC and UML parroted relentlessly during the run up to CA elections. As is often the case when the ideas of others are regurgitated, the NC and UML appear to have lost sight of the holistic implications ensconced in the late poet’s words.

For in the same poem that contains the phrase mentioned above, Rimal also alludes to the arrival of such a day that fundamentally alters the very assumptions upon which an existing paradigm is based. Self-absorbed in the victory of past elections and reassured with erroneous data from the South, Nepal’s former democratic title-holders appear to have severely misinterpreted the meaning and spirit of poet Rimal’s words.

The single day in our era has come and gone and instead of reinstating the NC and UML to their former pedestals, this day has all but eradicated the UML as a credible political contender and as many argue, may unwind a life’s worth of work, started by the late B.P. Koirala.
The verdict of CA elections is in, and there is no turning back. As humbling the former titans’ experience has been, they are the victims of their own inability to understand and counter Maoists’ strategies. The NC and the UML thought that the YCL’s irrational activities were enough to turn off the voters. So instead of trying to defeat the Maoists by scoring a goal, they foolishly wished YCL’s high-handedness to prove as a suicide goal, which at the end of the day did not happen.

Although it is unclear at this time how the Maoists will move ahead in days to come, a few speculative ideas may be generated based on observations from the Maoists’ landslide victory and lessons from history.

In turbulent times, voters tend to choose candidates who promise radical changes. During the early 1930s, the voters in Germany were so frustrated with the inability of their government to address the country’s basic problems that they opted for a candidate from the extreme right to bring about a desired change in the status quo - that candidate happened to be none other than Adolf Hitler.

Although premature to predict whether Nepal’s Maoist party will abide by its commitment to democracy or interpret its victory as unconditional support for the full execution of the ‘Prachanda path,’ the tendency for a radical party to continue carrying out radical policies should not be negated. A clear majority in a body that is tasked to write Nepal’s future constitution is not a position that should be treated lightly; Nepal simply cannot afford to rely on liberal interpretations of what Maoists leaders say from this day onwards.

To the Maoists’ credit, at no point throughout the peace process or the entire period of insurgency has its leadership expressed anything but a full-fledged commitment to the Maoists’ strategic end-goal: the establishment of a one-party communist republic. Any misrepresentation of the Maoists’ strategic intent has come from outside the party - mainly from individuals and organisations that have chosen to retrofit Maoist utterances to their own world-views, regardless of the Frankenstein prescriptions that have often resulted.

For two agonising years, the mainstream parties engaged the Maoists through appeasement. The Maoists in turn, engaged the mainstream through an ultra-realist paradigm. At the end of Nepal’s peace process, realism has triumphed and the Maoist strategy of hard-ball negotiations has prevailed.

A stunned Indian government, bent on showing its own Naxalites that violence doesn’t pay off, is now forced to shake hands with a group that it had once, unilaterally declared as ‘terrorists.’ Having outsourced its Nepal policy to India, the United States of America also faces an unsettling prospect of a China-friendly government in Nepal, thanks to Indian miscalculation.

Such considerations however, are now moot points. Much more relevant is how quickly the unseated parties can reinvent themselves and provide credible alternatives to the Maoist writ. With a gigantic representation in the CA, the Maoists find themselves in a commandeering position from which they have virtually unlimited powers to remake the Nepali polity in their own image. This is all the more reason the presence of competing ideologies and thoughts are a must to resuscitating Nepal’s democracy.

The lesson here is two-fold: the politicians of the NC and UML must practice what they preach; and these parties must engage in introspection to fully comprehend the disastrous consequences of compromising their parties’ distinguishing principles, in favor of their political rivals’ electoral platforms.

Act responsibly

After the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections on 10th of April, Nepali politics will take a new direction. Hopefully, the Maoist party that has been sending conflicting signals about accepting the people's verdict will exhibit some political maturity and decency even if it fails to cruise to thumping victory. If nothing, a lesson that they can take home at the end of the day is that ballots can bring political change faster than bullets. Who knows how long it would have taken, or for that matter, if it was even possible for the Maoist party to overthrow monarchy that had a cozy relationship with professional military through a classic guerrilla hit-and-run tactics.

There is no doubt that violence has served as a springboard for the Maoists to get where they are today but by rejecting CA election results (if they actually do so) the Maoists will be forcing Nepali people to think whether the Maoists' demand for CA polls was a sincere attempt towards empowering the poor and downtrodden masses of Nepal or tactical ploy to lure innocent Nepali people that are yet to experience the trickle down effects of the developmental aid pouring into the country for the last five decades or so.

There is no doubt that the Maoists spearheaded the demand for the republic. But the senseless acts of violence, which the Maoist cadres actually never gave up in the last two years even after signing fifty plus agreements, clearly shows that there is a substantial difference between the kind of republic that the people want and the Maoists cherish for. The people, for sure, do not want a type of republic whereby candidates contesting elections get beaten black and blue by the cadres of brainwashed, irrational, and intolerant Young Communist League. If the Maoists really think it is the most trusted party, then they have even bigger responsibility of delivering what people want: peace, democracy, and prosperity.

The people want real peace, not the false sense of security that Kim Jong-Il has been providing his hapless subjects in North Korea. They want a true democratic state whereby every single individual has a right to float a new political party or contest elections fearlessly, not the one where the party at the helm of affairs decides who is progressive, and hence, worthy enough to contest elections.

Peace and democracy alone will not be enough to contend people for long. If we look back, it becomes evident that, the mass-democratic movements of the eighties that swept the developing world were essentially based on bread and butter and local issues such as electricity, water, and low wages. Unless the political transformation that took place in the last two years brings about socio-economic transformation, neither long lasting peace nor democratic consolidation is possible in Nepal. It is socio-economic transformation, like ocean currents deep below the hurricane-tormented surface of the sea that will have the lasting and permanent effect, when it comes to establishing a largely peaceful democratic state. Failure to bring socio-economic changes will once again force people to rebel; however, the next revolution in Nepal will be against economic apartheid.

As far as the major political parties that have been participating in the democratic exercises of the last two decades are concerned, they have even a greater role to play. They have a solemn duty to show to the people that they are actually capable of bringing peace through the moderation of the Maoists, which they promised will happen eventually, or else it will become clear that the democrats failed to understand the Maoists' ploy of using democrats as "useful idiots" in order to leapfrog to a higher level of the Maoist revolution pyramid.

In addition, the major political parties will have to counter the utopian dreams of equality that the hardcore left sells to woo people in its favor with programs that produce real tangible results if they want to survive politically. They got to prove that they are actually capable of delivering the results. Failure to do so will not only embolden the footings of the Maoists but will also open up a space for another set of radicals to pursue a dream of a perpetual revolution whatever the costs.

The last one and half decades of the Maoist insurgency and the last one year of ethnic dissent are to some extent results of weak performances of the major political parties in terms of social and political integration. Due to lack of internal democracy within political parties, the leaders with vision and actual problem solving abilities never got a chance to come to the forefront. Hopefully, with the onset of a new dawn, intra-party democracy will take root, which is absolutely important for an emergence of competent leadership that can replace the older folks, who tend to have the years they spent in jail fighting for democracy as the only credible credential, which in the real world of performance-based politics is not worth even a penny.

For how long should one's actual potential to deliver tangible results be waived for the years s/he spent in prison fighting for democracy? Shouldn't it stop at some point? What could be better time than now when we are making a fresh start to build a new Nepal?

The challenge of creating a "New Nepal" requires a vision and sacrifices on part of the political leadership. The abolishment of monarchy is the first step in the process of dismantling feudal structures and creating an equal society. With that taken care of, the real challenge will be to ensure that, rising tide raises all boats. The people have really started seeing the dreams of living in a "New Nepal," in which, the fundamental issue of good governance, in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, transparency, responsiveness and accountability, will be attended to.

It would not be wise on the part of politicians to let down the people that are so focused on the hope for peace and prosperity with enthusiastic creative imagination. Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German pastor, who vehemently opposed Nazism famously said: "the ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children."

The current generation of politicians in Nepal, thus, has an obligation to become moral and worthy ancestors. They have a responsibility of making sure that the ongoing political transformation brings peace, prosperity and democratic freedom to the people or else they run the risk of being remembered as bunch of loonies that embarked on the journey of political engineering without proper vision, knowledge, and direction and ended up creating a political Frankenstein.

Will CA polls be 'free and fair'?

Election fever has finally hit the nation. After two years of political confusion and chaos, the chances of Constituent Assembly (CA) elections taking place appear brighter than ever. However, the major concern now is: What will happen if elections go one way or the other?

Will the Maoist radicals that believe only violence can effect political change for the people, and for whom, death of innocent civilians, children, or a land owner who owns too large a plot of paddy is simply the cost of war accept the defeat if they fail to emerge as a major political party in CA elections? Will the royalists that seem to be excited by the recent opinion poll that shows a surge in king's popularity accept the verdict of CA polls wholeheartedly if people reject monarchy? What would the mainstream political parties' like the Nepali Congress and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) do if they fail to put up a decent fight in the CA polls?

Has anybody in the mainstream political parties or the donor community thought about these scenarios and their possible fallout seriously? The game does no get over with the CA elections. Rather, the real power game will begin after the elections are over. There is a big possibility of a post-election violence like the one that happened in Kenya recently. As the real battle for the political survival will begin after the CA elections, donor community should work with the moderate political forces and the Army and come up with a post-election strategy.

For Puspa Kamal Dahal, his life-long presidential ambition is at stake, whereas for King Gyanendra, more than two century-old royal legacy is almost over. Will these pompous egoistic individuals accept people's verdict like rational human beings? There is very little room to believe that. So, it is important that we, as a nation, remain prepared for the worst.

On the brighter side, upcoming CA elections have provided a perfect opportunity for the democratic forces in Nepal to emerge as a winner. All they got to do at this point in time is to ensure that elections are not rigged by the groups that want to falsely project themselves as a major political force. Free and fair CA elections have the potential to re-legitimize the mainstream parties through a process of universal suffrage. Rigged elections will further legitimize a decade of violence.

The Maoist party is clinically dead in the tarai. It will, thus, do anything for a clean sweep in the hills. Politically, it is a do-or-die situation for them. The best way of testing the Maoist commitment towards the free and fair elections is through the deployment of the Nepali Army during the CA elections.

As the demands of every dissenting group in the tarai have been fulfilled, except for the secessionists, deployment of the NA to ensure free and fair elections should not be a problem. If there is an opposition, be sure that the opposing group definitely has something else in mind. It would be a blunder to cage a professional army that has successfully conducted elections in war-ridden countries when we need its help to identify the legitimate political forces that the people of Nepal trust to take the nation forward in the right direction.

In a situation whereby the Young Communists League (YCL) is openly intimidating leaders and campaigners of other political parties in the hills and secessionists are creating havoc in the tarai, the only way to enhance the popular participation in the upcoming elections is by making them feel safe at polling stations. And, Nepal Police under Krishna Situala's leadership is neither professionally capable, nor psychologically strong to do so.

Let us all be practical for the greater good of the nation, shall we? At this juncture, we have got two choices: (1) let the polls to be rigged out of fear that lack of political space will force the Maoists to return to the jungles (2) conduct free and fair elections and send a strong message: guns can't buy votes, ultimately you got to win the hearts and minds of people.

Radicals survive their confrontation with reality by withdrawing from society into their "sect." Irrespective of its ideological substance, radicalism as a frame of mind, exists at all times. Our success lies in conducting free and fair elections so that the people that are easily lured and indoctrinated by the radicals like Puspa Kamal Dahal, Nagendra Paswan, and Jay Krishna Goit get a message that, by raising arms against the state you can get only so far.

In a country like ours that has been a victim of bloody insurgency and ethnic divide, elections can be seminal events that, if free and fair, not only confer legitimacy on governments but also can profoundly influence political and social institutions, power arrangements, and citizens' expectations. Confining NA to the barracks at this juncture when the cadres of the Maoists and the secessionists are intimidating and annihilating political opponents will be a blunder of Himalayan proportion.

Do not make upcoming CA elections a fading shadow of democracy, by letting it to get rigged, when we are actually capable of conducting free and fair elections. Rigged elections will further squeeze the juice out of major political parties that are already dehydrated.

Like the Maoist violent means taught those groups out there that are now raising arms against the state that, raising arms against the state is not a heinous crime but a profitable political bargain, rigged elections will teach them another set of lessons: first, bring down the mainstream political parties to their knees at a gun point and then replace them through rigged elections. How good of a lesson would that be?

The road ahead

Last week, in British Broadcasting Corporation's (BBC) program “Sajha Sawal”, the stalwarts of the Seven Part Alliance (SPA); Dr Ram Sharan Mahat, Jhala Nath Khanal, and Hishila Yami; were caught off guard. Sushil Sharma's simple question -- will you all retire from politics if you fail to conduct twice postponed Constituent Assembly (CA) election this time around, made them pause. It made them stop blowing their horns, even if it was for a few seconds, and forced them to reflect in their real ability to get things done.

Despite all assurances and promises to flock together this time around to fulfill people's desire to have a CA election, not a single politician that participated in the program had enough guts to say; yes, as a senior member of my party I will take the responsibility for repeated failure in not being able to meet people's desire, and thus, will retire.

Although repeated failure is an example of incompetence, none sounded like the ones who had flunked thrice in the same mission. Like his boss Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal was at his best in fence-sitting politics.

In a typical Madhav Nepal style, Khanal blamed Yami and Dr Mahat's party for the debacle and tried to project his party as the only viable alternative that can wipe-out all ills confronting Nepal. Yami appeared more aggressive than needed. Like a cornered animal, she spent most of her time hounding fellow participants, especially Dr Mahat, left and right. In a typical leftist style, with help of jargons such as progression, regression, inclusion, she tried her best to justify her party's run away from the CA election in November of 2007.

Yami repeatedly mentioned people as a wise lot, but did not refrain from trying to fool the very same people by justifying the CPN (Maoist)'s run away from the CA election scheduled for last November. Are we that stupid not to know why the Maoists ran away from CA election in November? Madam, give us a break.

Dr Mahat at times came down heavily on the Maoists' duplicity and dubious character but had nothing new to say. Later on during the program, he joined the chorus to assure the seriousness of the SPA in conducting the CA election this time around.

Last week's program clearly revealed two things: (1) the confidence of the ruling coalition in its ability to conduct CA election (2) honesty of the stalwarts of the ruling coalition. Like in the past, the ruling coalition wants to assure the people that they will pull it off. But there are very few buyers this time around. How can people be assured that the CA election will not be postponed this time around when the politicians that are supposed to conduct election are not themselves confident enough in their ability to it? What is even more troubling is their lack of honesty and sincerity towards the people, who deserve truthful assessment about the prospects of CA election, if nothing.

Is it practically feasible to conduct a free and fair election in less than three months in the current situation whereby the presence of the state is confined to the Kathmandu valley? Populist politics is at its best in Nepal. Strange but true, no politician wants to be the bearer of any unpleasant news. So, instead of banking on politicians' assurances, why don't we do our own analysis?

There are two major hurdles in the path of successful completion of CA election: (1) the ethnic dissent in the tarai (2) Insincerity of the Maoists. The security situation in the tarai is deteriorating at an unprecedented pace. Civil servants in various tarai districts are being extorted, abducted and killed. Many government officials in the tarai are devoid of civil servants. In a context whereby the polling officers to conduct the election in the tarai have publicly said that they would not abide by the government's instructions and have threatened to resign, how is the government going to conduct the election?

The spiraling security dilemma will become particularly intense and at some point, it is likely to move to outright conflict if the condition is not improved. Unless the tarai issue is addressed amicably and the participation of credible political forces such as the Madhesi People's Right Forum and Tarai-Madhes Lokantrik Party is ensured, there are very slim chances of conducting the election in the tarai.

Election is not an end in itself. Its results without the participation of the ethnic parties, at best, can be called as partial mandate. The issue of credibility will continue to haunt the SPA like it did King Gyanendra if the political participation of those outside the ruling alliance is not ensured. And, the reverence of the constitution will always remain in question if crafted without the participation of the certain segment of the society. It will not be able to survive as the supreme law of the land for long. Sooner or later, it will have to be scrapped or amended substantially.

Another major hurdle in the path of CA election is Maoists' insincerity. Despite signing forty plus agreements with the mainstream political parties, understandings in the paper have not turned into reality. Based on the Maoists' track record of adherence to the peace process, it cannot be ruled out that the Maoists will again abort the prospects of CA election.

The fear of defeat in the CA poll forced the Maoists to make U-turn from their earlier commitments and scuttle it. Since then, things have not changed much in the favor of the CPN (Maoist). The very minute the Maoists realize that they will not emerge as a major political force, they will scuttle the process. As a matter of fact, they may do that even before. There is a big probability that the Maoists will make integration of their combatants into the NA and walk out of the government once they pocket around 2.15 billion rupees as salary/arrears for their guerillas. They may put forward kicking King Gyanendra out of the palace as the new precondition for election, and leave the government. Based on the Maoists' track record, which is full of duplicity and dubiousness, these scenarios cannot be ignored altogether.

Furthermore, Prachanda's recent revelation about his admiration and reverence for Lenin raises more questions than it answers. Like his reverend leader Lenin, who grabbed the power after dispensing his opponents and dismissed the constituent assembly, Prachanda too might be toying with the idea of scuttling the CA poll and annihilating the political rivals within the SPA.

For radicals, things appear in black and white, grey areas do not exist. They can only visualize the birth of Lord Buddha or Junga Bahadur Rana. Non-violent Gandhi that freed millions of Indians crushed by the British Empire does not impress them. As Buddha is not the right person to tame the people that are posing a serious threat to the existence of his brainwashed cadres and militias, he might try to justify the need of Junga Bahadur Rana and prove his relevance.

The road to successful CA election is a thorny one. The ability of the mainstream political parties to force the Maoists adhere to the agreements and ensure the participation of the political parties outside the ruling alliance will determine whether or not the CA election will be held this time around. Failure to do so will plunge the nation into a political and constitutional crisis.

In order to save Nepal both from the dictatorship of the proletariat and the 'guardian coup', whereby the military steps in with the goal of restoring public order, reducing corruption, or fighting insurgents, civilian power must be wielded legitimately. For that to happen, the April CA election must take place, and they must produce credible results. Should this election be postponed/cancelled or the poll lacks credibility due to the lack of participation of parties outside the SPA coalition, then the transition risks derailing and no further possibility can be ruled out.

Election: Democratic or authoritative tool?

Recently, the Seven Party Alliance's (SPA) government decided to throw goodies in the form of one million rupees at the members of interim parliament. Thanks to the government, along with the parliamentarians of the mainstream political parties, the so-called leaders of the proletariat that do not own anything besides their ideology too, will be millioner soon.

Seeing the recent activities of the SPA government, it becomes evident that, promises are made to be broken and people are sought to be forgotten, at least till the next election cycle.

Giving away taxpayers' money by the government to contest election, at best can be regarded as a "political fraud." It is the biggest political fraud perpetrated on the public in recent times. If this is the only option at hand to motivate people's representatives to face their constituents, we are in serious trouble. We will be very soon behind Ethiopia in terms of development and behind Pakistan in terms of political freedom.

The government is trying to fool people by giving this decision a developmental color. It is being said that the money is given to carryout developmental activities. What kind of developmental activities can a Pahari parliamentarian from the tarai, or for that matter, Brahmin or Chhettri in Limbuwan or Tharuwan region, in the current situation where people are having hard time to save their lives, carry out with one million rupees in the period of three months?

When Prachanda with his entourage of former militia cannot visit Madi due to security threats, how many sitting parliamentarians can dare to visit their constituencies in the tarai or other regions of the country engulfed in ethnic conflict?

Forget about carrying out developmental activities for now. In the current situation, more than two-thirds of the sitting parliamentarians will not be able to move freely in their constituencies. First of all, it is necessary to create an environment whereby these parliamentarians, both handpicked and whose five-year-term has been expired long ago, can face electorate freely and fearlessly. For that to happen, it is necessary to address the issues raised by various ethnic groups. Elections held without the participation of minorities that make up of big chunk of the population, cannot be considered valid.

The SPA government has done things that would make thugs of illiberal regimes feel ashamed. Instead of ensuring that money does not undermine the free and fairness of elections, by deciding to give away money, the current government has already sown the seed of unfairness and unhealthy competition. It does not take Einstein's brain to understand, how and where -- these sitting parliamentarians, whose political future is up in the air, will use their prize money.

This decision will not only undermine the process of creation of a just society through a free, fair and credible election but create another set of political patrons. What Nepali citizens should understand is that feudalism is never defeated by political patrons. So, the time has come that we start looking beyond the ones that are warming the benches in the parliament.

Why is it important to ensure the fairness of elections? Although election is the bedrock of democracy, it can also be used as an oppressive tool to pacify opposition and dissent into conformity. It can be used both ways: (2) to empower people (2) to foment competition. It is necessary to check the influence of money on elections because it sways the results of elections and forces people to accept the modern form of "political occupation."

In order to defeat these prize winner parliamentarians, who will have a million to spend, other political parties or groups that are outside the SPA umbrella will have to field "moneybags" as candidates. In other words, to fight the money power of the incumbents, opposition parties, which the SPA doesn't think exists in Nepal, have to field rich candidates. What kind of precedence will this practice set? Where is the space for sincere citizens who want to selflessly serve the nation and the people that have been repeatedly betrayed in the name of progression, inclusion, and equality?

The monetization of elections will adversely affect the development of a democratic society. It will erode people's faith in democratic process and falsify the notion that representatives are freely and consciously elected. It will completely degenerate the genuine democratic process by which politicians of character and integrity are born.

This decision of throwing goodies to secure the victory of partymen in upcoming CA election is not only morally repugnant but also constitutionally flawed. The danger that comes with such irresponsible and unconstitutional act is that it limits the chances of participation of those who do not have money and power that comes with it, what otherwise should be a transparent, free, fair and just contest among political equals. It turns democracy into an exclusive club of patrons that are privileged.

The monetization of a major democratic institution such as election will corrupt the entire political process and pave the way for the rise of an authoritarian regime. For a country like Nepal which has experienced many years of turmoil and political hopelessness, the CA election is a remarkable step in the transition to democracy. It is, thus, extremely important to ensure that right people get elected. Till the cascading effects of money on elections are not negated, any promise of such a thing as clean and responsible government is an idea too far-fetched to be true.

At this critical juncture, it is important to understand that our misery lies in failure to create a rule-based society, where wrong-doers are penalized quickly and honesty is rewarded. If it is all about bringing back the same people, then why have the CA election? It is better to extend the term of the current bench warmers that are shamelessly accepting the bribe to face constituents.

This unconstitutional act of bribing politicians to participate in elections should be challenged in the Supreme Court. It is high time we rose against the politicians that are trying to turn elections into an authoritative tool. It will also provide us an opportunity to see whether the men in black in the Supreme Court that have freed corrupt politicians in the past have gotten any better.

United we stand

Nepal suffers from selective analysis of the problems. From politicians to left-leaning civil society members, everyone in Nepal seems to analyze politics the way it suits them and their agenda. Political pundits are so bitterly divided that they don't see problems that can arise in future from the deal-based politics and constitutional adventurism. It is hard to find an academician that dares to say in public that elections are the bedrock of democracy and extension of the current government in the name of transition is jeopardizing the democratic consolidation.

Is it greed or intellectual demise, or the combination of both, that is propelling the best brains in the nation to engage in selective analysis? What will it take for our politicians, left-leaning civil society members, political pundits, and academicians crushed with political luggage to realize that mandates in politics are time-bound and are not valid for ever?

Again, it is not only the politicians, academicians, political pundits, or the civil society members that are engaged in selective analysis. The entire nation suffers from this dangerous political disease. If you are Paharis (from hills), there is a big probability that you see the demands put forward by the fellow Madhesis absolutely rubbish and Indian game plan to disintegrate Nepal. If you are a Madhesi, you see every single Pahari as a colonizer and keep silent even when Paharis living in the tarai are butchered by the secessionists, who are posing as liberators.

Before accusing anyone of being Indian pawn, the time has come to ask who is not an Indian pawn in Nepal? Paharis accuse Madhesi politicians of being pawns, but how come no Pahari dares to question Girija Prasad Koirala's nationalist credentials when he wants to open a liaison office of Nepali Congress (NC) in New Delhi? We too, like Biharis' Bihar Bhavan, Rajasthanis' Rajasthan Bhavan, and Telugus' Andhra Bhavan, will have our own little Bhavan -- NC Bhavan in Delhi if Koirala has his way. How patriotic is this gesture?

The nation is so fragmented that people fall into one category or the other by default. The probability of you getting called: Bahunist, Maoist, royalist, etc at some point or the other is really huge. Like me, if you are a Brahmin, you are already a Bahunist by default. It does not matter whether or not you have benefited from being a Brahmin from other members of your Varna that are in the corridors of power.

Is it my fault that I am born as a Brahmin? And, how have I, or for that mater, any other hard working Brahmin benefited from just being a Brahmin? Like any other Newar, or for that matter, Madhesi or Kirat, millions of Brahmins like me in Nepal worked hard in their life to get where they are now. Just because Girija Prasad Koirala, Madhav Nepal, Ram Chandra Poudel, and Puspa Kamal Dahal are dictating Nepali politics and their kith and kin are benefiting politically and financially, is it fair enough to blame and victimize all Brahmins for exclusion of minorities? It is the fault of these handfuls of Brahmins that are withholding the genuine rights of other ethnicities, not ours, who had no control over our Varna.

While Pahari brahmins in the corridors of power in Kathmandu are hesitant to hand over the genuine rights to the people of the tarai, Madhesi leaders of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Tarai-Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) are silent over displacement and killings of Paharis that have been living in the tarai for generations. Neither anyone from MJF, nor TMLP have come forward and condemned killings of innocent Paharis at the hands of secessionists.

A few things that Madhesi leaders of MJF and TMLP need to make clear is, whether or not tarai belongs to Paharis like me who were born there. They should also make clear about what they mean when they talk about rights and opportunity for the people of Madhes? Are they only seeking rights for Thakurs, Yadavs, Tripathi, Raya, Shukla, Lal, and Guptas or the entire population of Madhes? Is this fight only for rights of Madhesis or the people like me too, whose forefathers have been living in Madhes for almost ten generations and had no connection of any kind with hills?

In my view, Madhesi leaders should not narrow their reach and harden ethnic boundaries. Ethnic politics does not take one very far. Neither Bedananda Jha, nor Gajendra Narayan Singh could reach very far. Gore Bahadur Khapange proved to be a disaster. It might provide instant solace to some but there is very little one can get out of ethnic politics.

There are millions of Paharis born and brought up in Madhes and have no connection with hills. MJF and TMLP should try to earn their support too. They are by all measures not less Tarians than any Thakur, Yadav, Mishra, Jha, Mahoto or Gupta that reside in the tarai. And, they will not hesitate to throw their support behind Mahanth Thakur and Upendra Yadav if convinced.

The leaders of MJF and TMLP should try to learn a lesson from the recent success of Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh, India. She achieved what messiah of Dalits in India, Bhim Rao Ambedkar and her mentor Kanshi Ram, could not in their lifetime. However, it took her more than a decade to realize that in ethnically diverse societies, focusing only on certain castes or ethnicity does not take one very far. This realization made her make a complete U-turn from tilak, taraju aur talwar, maro unko jhoote char (beat up Brahmins, Vaishyas and Kshatriyas) to Haathi nahin Ganesh hain, Brahma Vishnu Mahesh hain (it is not elephant but Lord Ganesh, symbolizing all gods and communities).

The politics of inclusion clearly benefited Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh and will benefit Mahanth Thankur and Upendra Yadav in the tarai. Slogans and rhetoric alone cannot win elections. Especially in a region where approximately 40 percent of population is Pahari, you just have two options: either engage yourself in ethnic cleansing, which will erode your democratic credentials or ensure inclusion of those Paharis that, like you all have been ignored and undermined, by fellow Pahari Brahmins in the corridors of power. There are millions of Paharis residing in the tarai that have no problem having a Madhesi leader as a president or prime minister. All you got to do is, make them feel safer and secured.

Don't fall into the trap of secessionists. Secession by no means is an answer to oppression. Oppression and exclusion can be defeated from within. The partition of India has not made Muslims in Pakistan any better. Indian Muslims are experiencing far more political freedom than their counterpart in Pakistan. There is no end if we start running from the oppressors with our small share. We should learn to fight back and defeat them.

Neither all Paharis are oppressors, nor are all Madhesis oppressed. The tarai is eagerly waiting for someone like Mayawati who can ensure inclusion of not only Madhesis but also Paharis that have been bypassed by those in corridors of powers that have forgotten what they stand for.

Lessons from Bhutto’s Assassination

Benazir Bhutto gave her life for the sake of democracy in Pakistan. Was it worth it? Absolutely yes. Could she have averted her untimely death? You bet. All she had to do is, resort to a deal-based politics like the one that is being practiced in Nepal. She could have averted her assassination by allowing murderous assassins to dictate the course of her country. Her fault: she tried swimming against the tide of religious fanaticism. She courted death in order to regain political space lost to the fundamentalists, unlike in Nepal, where the so-called democrats are selling out ideology and democratic principles for the sake of political survival.

Bhutto, unlike our own "mainstreamers," refused to join hands with ideologues and religious fanatics in Pakistan. She rather chose to fight against them in order to make Pakistan a true democratic state. After living in the United States and the United Kingdom, she must have known the difference between living in a "liberal democracy" and the country held hostage by radicals. In a liberal democracy, for example India, a catholic woman from Italy is accepted and trusted to run the show. Whereas in society infested by political ideologues and religious fanatics—Pakistan—, daughter of the very soil fighting for people's freedom and democracy gets gunned down. Ideologically bankrupt politicians of Nepal should try to understand what the ultimate price could be if the brainwashed ideologues that embrace Mao's ideological fanaticism remain unchecked and are allowed to infest our society. Benazir's assassination holds grave lessons and warnings for Nepal.

Be it Mao's ideological fanaticism, which is embraced by the Maoists in Nepal or Bin Laden's brand of "Islamofascism" practiced by the religious fanatics in Pakistan, they are equally dangerous for liberal democracy. Religious and political fanaticism and liberal democracy do not go together. In Pakistan, with Bhutto's assassination, religious fanatics have succeeded in uprooting the seedlings of democracy completely. Whereas in Nepal, political fanaticism practiced by the Maoists and replicated by the groups led by secessionists such as Jay Krishna Goit and Nagendra Paswan have greatly reduced prospects of democratic consolidation. The chances of democratic consolidation appear bleaker than ever.

Out of many factors that propelled the rise of political fundamentalism in Nepal, the most important one is repeated subversion of democratic process by the political elites. The constant manipulation of people and the political processes by political gladiators has pauperized the society and wallowed the people in abject poverty. Needless to say, the never ending episodes of deal making in the dark corridors never allowed the country to escape from political instability and a cyclical legitimacy crisis.

Besieged by a multitude of hostile forces, the politicians in Nepal are politically insecure. They are so completely engrossed in the struggle for political survival that they want to subvert the genuine political processes. One recent example of such cowardice is Madhav Nepal's disclosure in Biratnagar. He wants the SPA to 'reserve' seats for top SPA leaders during the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA) polls. What a mockery of democratic rights of people of Nepal.

Madhav Nepal's recent statement makes it clear that there are many politicians in the so-called mainstream political parties who want to construct a "kleptocratic" regime in which they can steal from the citizens, deceive and undermine them, even though they need them to survive politically. Don't you think these air-headed idiots need a basic course on rights of voters in democracy?

Two years after bringing down an autocratic monarch to his knees, Nepal continues to grapple with complex challenges of national reconciliation, national reconstruction, economic reform, and democratic consolidation. Sad but true, the citizenry is still anxious to see and enjoy the dividends of democracy. The political insincerity of the SPA and the Maoists have bogged down the democratic process to such a degraded level that only those who can muster and unleash enough violence and control the institutions of state can win the political wars for power.

The insensitive and autocratic monarch is sure to go. He deserves the axe that has fallen on his head, no doubt about it. People should face consequences for their actions/inactions. Only then they will start behaving like rational beings. Furthermore, what values can a shrewd king and his rowdy son add to the process of democratic consolidation in Nepal?

That said, let me make it clear that the route that the SPA has taken to unseat Gyanendra is dead wrong. It reflects political vendetta more than anything else. Deciding the fate of an institution through constitutional adventurism is a horrendous idea. The SPA should have allowed people to decide the fate of monarchy in Nepal. This is mainly because one of the major factors responsible for political instability in Nepal is the failure of the political elites to sufficiently adhere to the basic tenets of democracy and constitutionalism.

Nepal is notoriously emerging as a country where nothing works. Inability to embrace a workable political system stems from the opportunism and lack of vision of the politicians like Madhav Nepal within the SPA. They remain bereft of viable political ideology on which the nation's political future can be anchored. This bankruptcy in ideology and vision has made the SPA look more like a syndicate than a political alliance dedicated towards fulfilling peoples' desire for peace, stability, and democracy.

Today, both in Pakistan and Nepal, democracy is put on trial by brainwashed radicals. In Pakistan, by assassinating Benazir Bhutto, to some extent "Islamofacists" have succeeded in aborting democratic dreams. There is a big probability that both Pakistan and Nepal will end up as illiberal democracies. But Pakistanis have at least a reason to be satisfied. They had a leader, Benazir, who gave her life fighting for democracy. She at least tried to save the nation from falling into the hands of radicals unlike our own so-called democrats who have flushed ideology and democratic principles down the toilet for political survival.

The basic difference between Bhutto and the so-called democrats in Nepal is that, Bhutto believed in the tenets of democracy. Unlike pseudo-democrats in Nepal, she knew that fanaticism and democracy do not go hand-in-hand. She never acted as a "useful idiot" at the hands of radicals like our politicians in Nepal. She always adhered to democratic principles and had vowed to wipe them out. Scared to death, radicals had no choice but to assassinate her.

While our own Girija Prasad Koirala, who has given everything but his beloved prime ministerial chair to the Maoist radicals, is awaiting a natural death (whose death, I doubt, will be of any inspiration to those who truly believe in liberal democracy in Nepal and abroad), Bhutto died a hero, a martyr and an inspiration for many both at home an abroad. While Pakistanis are mourning the loss of their beloved and revered leader Benazir, we, the Nepali people are forced to watch painful sale of our democratic dreams.