Bumpy road ahead

The midnight accord was a big deal. Certainly, it marked an end of the aspiration of experimenting with radical communism in Nepal, cherished by the Maoist insurgents. Girija Prasad Koirala, who in the past had been consistently labeled as having a hawkish personality and was often blamed for propagating nepotism and corruption, has finally been able to achieve people's aspirations of peace. His sheer determination to restore peace and stability has paid off at the end.

Prachanda has done a big favor to himself. By signing the peace accord, he has saved himself from going down in history as a notorious and stubborn insurgent leader. Time will tell if he has a vision to establish himself as a true statesman or if he simply succeeded in reaching where he is now because of the failure of politicians in the past.

Everyone, except for King Gyanendra and his cronies, has tremendously benefited from the midnight accord. The biggest winners are the Nepali people who have been longing for a durable peace and democracy for quite some time.

That King Gyanendra's failed bid to establish an autocratic regime proved to be a boon for the people. The people suffered for a couple of months, but this provided a platform for them to unite for a republic Nepal. Had King Gyanendra not been blinded by his autocratic aspirations, pushing freedom-loving people to the wall, it might have taken longer for us to convince the Maoists to join the mainstream politics.

The midnight accord has given the political parties that committed numerous mistakes and mismanaged national priorities an opportunity for a fresh start. Politicians have a golden opportunity to whitewash their previous records of corruption, nepotism, and incompetence now by lending an ear to the grievances of their constituents and fulfilling their aspirations.

The cloud of uncertainty and insecurity looming over the Nepali sky has finally cleared. Hopefully, all of the smoking guns will fall silent for good. After several tumultuous years marred by violence and political instability, the people can now breathe a sigh of relief. However, the days ahead are not filled with beds of roses. The real challenge begins with this new dawn. This is mainly because the stability of a conflict-ridden country largely depends on the success of reconciliation and reconstruction measures.

The countries in transition from a time of war to a time of peace are often confronted with a significant chance of sliding back into warfare. Thus, the mere signing of a peace agreement is not a guarantee of stability and peace.

The transitional phase is always a difficult and bumpy time because of constant uncertainty and insecurity. The leaders of all political parties, including the Maoists, should be careful because mistakes and mismanagement of problems during the transition phase can cause the country to slide back into warfare.

In order to establish a durable peace and stability, the violence and lawlessness that has existed thus far must give way to the security of citizens and the rule of law; social and political exclusion must give way to participatory institutions; animosity between the Maoists and the internally displaced persons (IDPs) must give way to national reconciliation; and the economy that has been ravaged by the decade-long violent insurgency must be transformed into a well-functioning market economy. The challenges ahead could be overwhelming if not dealt with carefully.

The most difficult question confronting us is where to begin with the reconciliation and reconstruction process. The government can begin by establishing positive measures such as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). It is extremely important because this has an ability to bring people on both sides of the conflict together to explore their mutual fear and anger and helps build bridges of trust between them.

Constructive reconciliation is extremely important for a meaningful transformation and democratization of our society. This is mainly because at the heart of any sustainable peace is the condition and process of reconciliation that helps restore a certain wholeness. It enhances the capacity of our society to let go of the hatred and hurt of the past and help warring sides to envision common future. It will instill a sense of friendship and nurture understanding between both the oppressors and victims.

Reconciliation is extremely important if peace is to be stabilized. Many peace agreements are orphaned in the absence of reconciliation. In the absence of reconciliation programs, the warring sides soon realize that it is impossible to co-exist and the conflict becomes renewed. One example of what can happen in the absence of reconciliation is the case of the second Intifada carried out by Palestine since 2000. Despite signing the Oslo accord and other numerous agreements, the warring sides (Israel and Palestine) have not been able to achieve a stable peace.

As reconciliation is a bottom-up process, the government should encourage people from both sides of the divide to come forward and forgive and reconcile with their one-time adversaries. Reconciliation is not easy because it forces each party to deal with human emotions and self-respect. It is hard for the victims of Maoist atrocities to forget their past grievances and forgive their oppressors. At the same time, it will be extremely difficult for the Maoist militiamen that committed crimes against humanity to admit their guilt and, with it, shed their arrogance.

Nepal has undergone a profound change, and the change poses new challenges for all of us. Citizens face the challenges of adapting to the changed social and political conditions; the government faces the challenges of directing the nation through the extremely painful process of reconciliation as well as the difficult process of reconstruction.

Like any other war-ravaged country, the decade-long insurgency has taken its toll on this country's overall economic development. Nepal today suffers from economic underdevelopment and damaged physical, economic, and social infrastructures. This armed conflict that has dragged on for a decade and a half has delayed the developmental process and eroded its developmental foundation. Bringing a highly polarized society together to rejuvenate a national economy that is capable of taking care of the basic needs of all citizens is not an easy task.

Rebuilding damaged physical and economic infrastructures is important, but the government should not get absorbed in the "mechanical-materialist approach" of reconstruction. This is mainly because reconstruction cannot be truly achieved in a society like ours without reforming social and political structures and the human relationships that are necessary to foster reconciliation and an idea of peaceful co-existence.

The government should reform economic policy and make development more inclusive, promote equity, and create special programs aimed at consolidating peace and stability. The economic policy of a new Nepal should thus focus not only on securing rapid economic growth, but also on equity, social inclusion, and stable peace. It should be aimed at fostering political and social adjustment vis-a-vis economic adjustment. Economic development alone cannot sustain peace if the underlying political and socioeconomic causes that sparked the Maoist conflict are not resolved.

Peace and disarmament

Six months after the April revolution, a gloomy prognosis has replaced the historic euphoria. The turtle pace of peace negotiations forced those hopeful of permanent peace and stability to celebrate the Dashain festival amidst confusion and uncertainty. Despite signing multiple agreements with the government, the Maoists have not deviated an inch from their ideology: violence makes everything possible. Their excesses continue unabated. They still engage in kidnapping, extortion, forceful indoctrination, coercive recruitment, torture and murder of innocent civilians. Fear and frustration out of subjugation has made our poorly governed and bleakly maintained nation even more vulnerable to negative outbursts.

With their continued actions, the Maoists are trying to malign the credibility of security guarantees that a government is supposed to provide to its citizens. It is an attempt to generate public impatience with the government's inability to maintain law and order. Maoists' documented pattern of behavior reflects that, for them, it is struggle at a different level.

The Maoists are trying to overwhelm the system without provoking the Nepali Army. Their myopic goal is to extort as much money as possible so that they can become a larger and more organized force to overwhelm the system. The Maoist threat of violence is nothing but a tactical move to achieve the end of violence without incurring any loss at the hands of the Nepali Army.

The time is ripe for the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) to ascertain where Maoist interests lie. Despite the government's relentless effort to appease the whims of Maoists, the Maoist actions show that they want complete dominance over the Nepali politics rather than share the limelight with SPA. SPA might have accepted the Maoists as their partner but the Maoists are yet to accept SPA as a friendly political force.

Although the Maoists have easy access and refuge in urban areas with the help of seven party alliance, they still deny access to political activists belonging to other parties in rural areas. All that the Maoists want at this point is to consolidate their base and garner support in urban areas without losing an inch in rural areas.

The Maoists have outperformed the SPA politicians in media campaigns. The government has miserably failed to actively communicate with the general population in order to manage expectations, build support, and allay suspicions. There seems to exist a disconnect between the people's aspirations for peace and stability and the actual ability of the political leaders to deliver. The people are not yearning for modern cars, luxurious houses, lavish vacations and other trendy gizmos: rather, they could be well-content in a simple life, free of violence, corruption, and living in inferno.

The SPA leaders should move away from fear's paralysis and put the Maoist leadership in defensive with active media campaigns. They should push for complete disarmament of Maoist militiamen. This is crucial for the ultimate survival of political parties and establishment of permanent peace, security and stability.

Many peacekeeping missions undertaken by the United Nations in conflict-ridden countries since the late 1980s failed mainly because weapons harvesting of combatants was not done properly; at best, it could be regarded as having been done very poorly. Thus, long term peace and stability of our conflict-ridden society largely depends on well-structured peace building negotiations between warring sides, humanitarian and infrastructure tasks to support local populations, and the permanent disarmament and demobilization of Maoist militiamen; failure to do so will render permanent peace a distant dream. This is mainly because uncollected weapons and unemployed ex-militiamen can easily reintegrate into society and pose a threat to long-term peace, stability and democracy. Failure to manage arms, which are the prime source of Maoists' fiefdom, can and will have a negative impact on the success of ongoing peace efforts, the consolidation of peace, and the prevention of future conflict from possible break away factions of the Maoist party.

Peace and stability warrants strengthening the power of the government, which can only be possible when the Maoist militiamen are disarmed completely. Thus, complete disarmament of the Maoist militia is crucial to reducing the potential for escalation of the insurgency, and as a part of conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction.

However, disarming the Maoists is not an easy task for the United Nations or any other international agency that might be interested in negotiating peace. This is because the Maoists do not have any incentive to tell the truth about the number of weapons they possess, and Maoist commanders will definitely try to covertly retain weapons and troops in case things do not go their way. For the Maoists, who can collect huge sums of money through extortion and by exercising fiefdom, conflict's familiar pattern is a safer bet than peace, which is altogether a new leap into the unknown and uncertain future.

The Maoists are hesitant to surrender their weapons because weapons possess economic as well as security values for them. With virtually non-existent employment opportunities and a lack of marketable skills among the Maoist militiamen, there are no real incentives for them to lay down their arms. The willingness to completely disarm on the part of the Maoist militia will largely depend on the government's ability to guarantee employment opportunities, food security, and the personal safety of Maoist militiamen.

One of the ways to deal with this is to secure overseas employment opportunities for the Maoist militiamen. By doing so, the government will not have to bear the burden of providing them jobs in the armed forces. The country can benefit through increased remittances and it will provide the Maoist militiamen with first-hand experiences of earning money through a fair and legal means while instilling in them a sense of respect for private property which they currently lack. In addition, the possibilities of ex-militiamen organizing themselves and starting insurgencies reduce drastically.

The Maoists should move beyond their rhetoric and begin to see disarmament as part of a wider political process aimed at resolving underlying and structural sources of conflict. Conflict is a vicious cycle and the sooner one can achieve an end to this recurring circle of violence, the better it is. This is mainly because conflict is a highly persistent condition. Societies caught in a vortex of conflict have a high probability of remaining in conflict.

Sebastian Mallaby rightly points out the nature of conflict when he notes, "violent conflict might become self-sustaining, because war breeds the conditions which make fresh conflict likely". What Maoist leadership should not underestimate is the impact of war weariness on their militia. If war stretches on for too long and the militiamen perceive victory to be unachievable, they may gradually lose their continued will to fight.

With the international community against them and having militiamen "burn out," the Maoist leadership might be deprived of the fair deal that they can negotiate now to find a timely and safe resolution to the conflict.

Counteracting Maoist Strategies in Nepal

After the April uprising, the mood of general public seems to be upbeat. People have begun to see a silver lining in the otherwise murky cloud. With the eight point pact between the government and the Maoist rebels, bloody insurgency that took lives of approximately 14,000 people seems to be coming to an end, hopefully a logical one.

However, even after the eight point pact, kidnappings and extortion of innocent citizens have not subsided. Kidnappings and extortions by the Maoists continue unabated.

Thousands of homes of internally displaced citizens padlocked by the Maoist insurgents are yet to be unlocked. Their lands have been distributed to create an utopian society and movable assets used up. Despite such atrocities, the current government seems to be reluctant to vigorously raise the issue and force the Maoist leadership to do something about it. The Maoists as usual have not been sticking to the agreements whole heartedly. This is not the first time they have breached an agreement. If one can get away with crimes, why bother about its judicial ramifications? It makes perfect sense.

While the Maoists seem upbeat about their political future, the government appears helpless, feeble, and in disarray. For now, its main agenda seems to be keeping insurgents happy, contended, and engaged. However, with Maoists' chairman blowing hot and cold on politicians, Nepalese Army, and the king concurrently, the political landscape is dangerously tilting in Maoists' favor and may not remain the same for long. Keeping the Maoists engaged is necessary but not enough to ensure the dominance of democratic forces. With an increase in dominance of CPN-Maoist in national politics and supposedly end of the monarchy after constituent assembly, what will the Nepali political landscape look like? With an increase in Maoist dominance in Nepali politics, members of UML and other splinter communist groups that share the same common minimum values may desert their parties and readily join the Maoist bandwagon. That will push social and liberal democrats towards oblivion. Their very existence may become questionable.

After constituent assembly when monarchy is undone, what happens if the Maoists do not gain majority in parliament? Will they resort to persuasive politics and try winning mind and hearts of ordinary citizens whom they frightened and intimidated for one and a half decades? Big brains churning out political strategies for SPA should be pondering upon these questions, sooner the better.

If the Maoists lose elections and become a minority group in the parliament, it is very likely that some of their leaders will again head out to jungles and resort to guns to maintain their fiefdom or they may resort to guns and rig their way to the power. It is all together a different question whether or not they will be able to hold on to power in the current geopolitical settings for long. Either of these two routes is alarmingly dangerous.

Prime Minister Koirala's instance on ceremonial monarchy is very insightful. It may not be a very popular or politically correct thing to do now, but it is the right thing to do. Politicians like Koirala should demonstrate the courage and do the right thing rather than cruising in with popular opinion. Having a ceremonial king may not be a popular idea but it serves the people's interests. It will provide international community a base and a space to operate in case communist groups go out of whack and follow Cuban, North Korean, or for that matter Venezuelan path.

Mere signing agreement does not mean anything. It is not only about bringing the Maoists on-board and keeping them engaged. The SPA should work towards retaining their lost grounds by proving themselves strong and visionary.

They should try defending their existence and redefine their strategy in order to gain public confidence in them.

Even after the 12-point pact, 25-point code of conduct and the eight-point agreement, Maoists' brutality continues unabated. It is propagating the perception of lawlessness. But establishing the rule of law and maintaining security is very important for the success of any peace process and beyond. Failure to establish the rule of --- and maintain --- law and order effectively has left East Timor in a lurch.

The government should not ignore Maoist atrocities or any other criminal groups. We may choose to ignore lawlessness, but the only thing we can hope after that is social unrest, untold bloodshed, and the end of our dreams.

A well functioning legal system is in everyone's best interest. It provides an arena in which citizens can hold politicians and civil servants to account. In addition, it helps citizens protect themselves from exploitation by rich and powerful, and help resolve conflicts in an amicable manner.

A rule of law is central to the realization of constitutionally guaranteed rights and is important to achieve the broader goals of development and poverty reduction.We had a well functioning parliament a decade ago. It did not take very long for things to go out of hand and we risked ourselves of becoming a failed

state. Be it an irrational thinking of bunch of leftist radicals that thought power comes from the barrel of gun or incompetent politicians who think they could get away without serving their constituents and enriching themselves. The decade old insurgency brought us nothing but made us to realize that the armed struggle is an incorrect approach. Sanity has finally made a come back, better late than never, and let us hope it prevails.

Nepal is confronted with significant challenges and seemingly intr-actableproblems. Corruption and weak adherence to the rule of law are the biggest blems. Political will to address governance and ensure economic development is central to the Nepal's future.

Whither Nepal's Future

April revolution in Nepal has pumped up unmatched enthusiasm among Nepali citizens. Enthusiasm is most potent among those championing domestic political reform –constituent assembly. The April 2006 popular revolt ended King Gyanendra's increasingly authoritarian fourteen-month rule. However, the leaders of Seven Party Alliance and Maoists (SPAM) face significant obstacles.

If the situation is mishandled, and Nepali people conclude nothing has changed except the names at the top, Nepal could become seriously unstable and politically vulnerable to the external interference. In order to become successful, it is extremely important to know your potential. Thus, political leaders of SPAM should shed negativities, vengeance, and explore new opportunities.

It was easy to point mistakes of the royalist government, but to maintain a clean image and fulfill citizens' aspiration is not an easy task. Like in the past, Maoists have once again started exhibiting their dual character by not sticking to spirit of the ceasefire. Recruitment of cadres, killing of innocent people, and extortion have not stopped yet. An unprecedented rise in criminal activities and extortion has forced Dabur Nepal to shut down its factory in southern Nepal.

Industrial climate has deteriorated to such a level that industrialist have been seeking the government's intervention. While the country's economic backbone is suffering, the leaders seem to be busy bursting out anti monarchy venom rather than trying to address pressing domestic and security issues. When it is all said and done, people will start demanding for jobs and security.

With the closure of factories, not only the already high unemployment rate will spike further, but also the tax base will dwindle. Already poor and foreign aid dependent impoverished nation may become further unstable and malnourished. As far as Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is concerned, he may be enjoying an unequivocal support from radical communists for now, but time is something that is certainly not on his side. His poor health may ultimately force him to exit politics. Thus, he has a responsibility of unifying divided congress party and strengthening his party's already weakened base.

Koirala's exit or absence may be the end of an era for social and liberal democrats in Nepal. No second generation leaders seem to have same stature and hold among the party cadres as Koirala does. So, what next? We may be heading towards a long haul of communist rule in Nepal which may turn out to be an authoritarian in nature.

When communism is seeing its slow but steady demise throughout the world, rise of communism in Nepal is in part because communists have been so far successful in selling dreams of equality, prosperity and ownership, and political bickering among the social and liberal democrats. Despite the fact that every communist economy in the world has failed, communists in Nepal have been so far successful in selling dreams.

Communist economy has not only failed, but miserably failed to support the country that tried it. The USSR is a history now, and Cuba is struggling hard to keep its populace happy with slow paced prosperity and high dose of ant-capitalist rhetoric. When it comes to red North Korea, it can not even produce enough food to feed its citizens. China is long past the communist economy stage, even if the rest of the government is as commie as can be. Forget about current level of development, it could not be able to feed its gigantic population with a communist economy.

When it comes to the right to differing opinion and personal freedom, communism has a belief system keeping the people in line. Killing non-believers is certainly an effective way to maintain control of those who don't accept the party line. For example, fate of journalist Dekendra Thapa and expulsion of Rabindra Shrestha and Anukul shows dictatorial face of a communist outfit. The minute you dissent, you are a traitor.

"Intra party feud and failure to deliver developmental benefits to oppressed, poor, and unemployed citizens by the social and liberal democrats created a political vacuum which socialist propaganda promptly filled. It was not hard to brain wash already disenchanted populace with socialist propaganda of equality and freedom from feudalism."

Freedom of expression tends also to be mediated by the state to maintain the 'integrity' of a communist regime. You can find a Marxist book in a US bookstore but it is impossible to find a Ludwig von Mises in a North Korean or Cuban library. After the reinstatement of democracy in 1990, social democrats dominated Nepal's politics with 114 members in parliament. None had thought that things would change so soon in favor of communists. After barely 16 years, country has gone all red. You agree it or not (depends on your political inclination), rural areas are completely controlled by radical communists (the Maoists) and urban areas by comparatively liberal communists (UML).

Intra party feud and failure to deliver developmental benefits to oppressed, poor, and unemployed citizens by the social and liberal democrats created a political vacuum which socialist propaganda promptly filled. It was not hard to brain wash already disenchanted populace with socialist propaganda of equality and freedom from feudalism.

So, this may be the last chance for social democrats that are at the helm of affairs in seven party alliance's government. Few things they may consider doing is (a) get Maoists on board and persuade them to submit there arms to credible institution (b) address unemployment problem (c) provide security to threatened industrial sector (d) establish rule of law, and (e) ensure economic development of rural areas. Do it, and do it right this time or else we may have a new authoritarian communist nation in the globe.