The road ahead

Last week, in British Broadcasting Corporation's (BBC) program “Sajha Sawal”, the stalwarts of the Seven Part Alliance (SPA); Dr Ram Sharan Mahat, Jhala Nath Khanal, and Hishila Yami; were caught off guard. Sushil Sharma's simple question -- will you all retire from politics if you fail to conduct twice postponed Constituent Assembly (CA) election this time around, made them pause. It made them stop blowing their horns, even if it was for a few seconds, and forced them to reflect in their real ability to get things done.

Despite all assurances and promises to flock together this time around to fulfill people's desire to have a CA election, not a single politician that participated in the program had enough guts to say; yes, as a senior member of my party I will take the responsibility for repeated failure in not being able to meet people's desire, and thus, will retire.

Although repeated failure is an example of incompetence, none sounded like the ones who had flunked thrice in the same mission. Like his boss Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal was at his best in fence-sitting politics.

In a typical Madhav Nepal style, Khanal blamed Yami and Dr Mahat's party for the debacle and tried to project his party as the only viable alternative that can wipe-out all ills confronting Nepal. Yami appeared more aggressive than needed. Like a cornered animal, she spent most of her time hounding fellow participants, especially Dr Mahat, left and right. In a typical leftist style, with help of jargons such as progression, regression, inclusion, she tried her best to justify her party's run away from the CA election in November of 2007.

Yami repeatedly mentioned people as a wise lot, but did not refrain from trying to fool the very same people by justifying the CPN (Maoist)'s run away from the CA election scheduled for last November. Are we that stupid not to know why the Maoists ran away from CA election in November? Madam, give us a break.

Dr Mahat at times came down heavily on the Maoists' duplicity and dubious character but had nothing new to say. Later on during the program, he joined the chorus to assure the seriousness of the SPA in conducting the CA election this time around.

Last week's program clearly revealed two things: (1) the confidence of the ruling coalition in its ability to conduct CA election (2) honesty of the stalwarts of the ruling coalition. Like in the past, the ruling coalition wants to assure the people that they will pull it off. But there are very few buyers this time around. How can people be assured that the CA election will not be postponed this time around when the politicians that are supposed to conduct election are not themselves confident enough in their ability to it? What is even more troubling is their lack of honesty and sincerity towards the people, who deserve truthful assessment about the prospects of CA election, if nothing.

Is it practically feasible to conduct a free and fair election in less than three months in the current situation whereby the presence of the state is confined to the Kathmandu valley? Populist politics is at its best in Nepal. Strange but true, no politician wants to be the bearer of any unpleasant news. So, instead of banking on politicians' assurances, why don't we do our own analysis?

There are two major hurdles in the path of successful completion of CA election: (1) the ethnic dissent in the tarai (2) Insincerity of the Maoists. The security situation in the tarai is deteriorating at an unprecedented pace. Civil servants in various tarai districts are being extorted, abducted and killed. Many government officials in the tarai are devoid of civil servants. In a context whereby the polling officers to conduct the election in the tarai have publicly said that they would not abide by the government's instructions and have threatened to resign, how is the government going to conduct the election?

The spiraling security dilemma will become particularly intense and at some point, it is likely to move to outright conflict if the condition is not improved. Unless the tarai issue is addressed amicably and the participation of credible political forces such as the Madhesi People's Right Forum and Tarai-Madhes Lokantrik Party is ensured, there are very slim chances of conducting the election in the tarai.

Election is not an end in itself. Its results without the participation of the ethnic parties, at best, can be called as partial mandate. The issue of credibility will continue to haunt the SPA like it did King Gyanendra if the political participation of those outside the ruling alliance is not ensured. And, the reverence of the constitution will always remain in question if crafted without the participation of the certain segment of the society. It will not be able to survive as the supreme law of the land for long. Sooner or later, it will have to be scrapped or amended substantially.

Another major hurdle in the path of CA election is Maoists' insincerity. Despite signing forty plus agreements with the mainstream political parties, understandings in the paper have not turned into reality. Based on the Maoists' track record of adherence to the peace process, it cannot be ruled out that the Maoists will again abort the prospects of CA election.

The fear of defeat in the CA poll forced the Maoists to make U-turn from their earlier commitments and scuttle it. Since then, things have not changed much in the favor of the CPN (Maoist). The very minute the Maoists realize that they will not emerge as a major political force, they will scuttle the process. As a matter of fact, they may do that even before. There is a big probability that the Maoists will make integration of their combatants into the NA and walk out of the government once they pocket around 2.15 billion rupees as salary/arrears for their guerillas. They may put forward kicking King Gyanendra out of the palace as the new precondition for election, and leave the government. Based on the Maoists' track record, which is full of duplicity and dubiousness, these scenarios cannot be ignored altogether.

Furthermore, Prachanda's recent revelation about his admiration and reverence for Lenin raises more questions than it answers. Like his reverend leader Lenin, who grabbed the power after dispensing his opponents and dismissed the constituent assembly, Prachanda too might be toying with the idea of scuttling the CA poll and annihilating the political rivals within the SPA.

For radicals, things appear in black and white, grey areas do not exist. They can only visualize the birth of Lord Buddha or Junga Bahadur Rana. Non-violent Gandhi that freed millions of Indians crushed by the British Empire does not impress them. As Buddha is not the right person to tame the people that are posing a serious threat to the existence of his brainwashed cadres and militias, he might try to justify the need of Junga Bahadur Rana and prove his relevance.

The road to successful CA election is a thorny one. The ability of the mainstream political parties to force the Maoists adhere to the agreements and ensure the participation of the political parties outside the ruling alliance will determine whether or not the CA election will be held this time around. Failure to do so will plunge the nation into a political and constitutional crisis.

In order to save Nepal both from the dictatorship of the proletariat and the 'guardian coup', whereby the military steps in with the goal of restoring public order, reducing corruption, or fighting insurgents, civilian power must be wielded legitimately. For that to happen, the April CA election must take place, and they must produce credible results. Should this election be postponed/cancelled or the poll lacks credibility due to the lack of participation of parties outside the SPA coalition, then the transition risks derailing and no further possibility can be ruled out.

United we stand

Nepal suffers from selective analysis of the problems. From politicians to left-leaning civil society members, everyone in Nepal seems to analyze politics the way it suits them and their agenda. Political pundits are so bitterly divided that they don't see problems that can arise in future from the deal-based politics and constitutional adventurism. It is hard to find an academician that dares to say in public that elections are the bedrock of democracy and extension of the current government in the name of transition is jeopardizing the democratic consolidation.

Is it greed or intellectual demise, or the combination of both, that is propelling the best brains in the nation to engage in selective analysis? What will it take for our politicians, left-leaning civil society members, political pundits, and academicians crushed with political luggage to realize that mandates in politics are time-bound and are not valid for ever?

Again, it is not only the politicians, academicians, political pundits, or the civil society members that are engaged in selective analysis. The entire nation suffers from this dangerous political disease. If you are Paharis (from hills), there is a big probability that you see the demands put forward by the fellow Madhesis absolutely rubbish and Indian game plan to disintegrate Nepal. If you are a Madhesi, you see every single Pahari as a colonizer and keep silent even when Paharis living in the tarai are butchered by the secessionists, who are posing as liberators.

Before accusing anyone of being Indian pawn, the time has come to ask who is not an Indian pawn in Nepal? Paharis accuse Madhesi politicians of being pawns, but how come no Pahari dares to question Girija Prasad Koirala's nationalist credentials when he wants to open a liaison office of Nepali Congress (NC) in New Delhi? We too, like Biharis' Bihar Bhavan, Rajasthanis' Rajasthan Bhavan, and Telugus' Andhra Bhavan, will have our own little Bhavan -- NC Bhavan in Delhi if Koirala has his way. How patriotic is this gesture?

The nation is so fragmented that people fall into one category or the other by default. The probability of you getting called: Bahunist, Maoist, royalist, etc at some point or the other is really huge. Like me, if you are a Brahmin, you are already a Bahunist by default. It does not matter whether or not you have benefited from being a Brahmin from other members of your Varna that are in the corridors of power.

Is it my fault that I am born as a Brahmin? And, how have I, or for that mater, any other hard working Brahmin benefited from just being a Brahmin? Like any other Newar, or for that matter, Madhesi or Kirat, millions of Brahmins like me in Nepal worked hard in their life to get where they are now. Just because Girija Prasad Koirala, Madhav Nepal, Ram Chandra Poudel, and Puspa Kamal Dahal are dictating Nepali politics and their kith and kin are benefiting politically and financially, is it fair enough to blame and victimize all Brahmins for exclusion of minorities? It is the fault of these handfuls of Brahmins that are withholding the genuine rights of other ethnicities, not ours, who had no control over our Varna.

While Pahari brahmins in the corridors of power in Kathmandu are hesitant to hand over the genuine rights to the people of the tarai, Madhesi leaders of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Tarai-Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) are silent over displacement and killings of Paharis that have been living in the tarai for generations. Neither anyone from MJF, nor TMLP have come forward and condemned killings of innocent Paharis at the hands of secessionists.

A few things that Madhesi leaders of MJF and TMLP need to make clear is, whether or not tarai belongs to Paharis like me who were born there. They should also make clear about what they mean when they talk about rights and opportunity for the people of Madhes? Are they only seeking rights for Thakurs, Yadavs, Tripathi, Raya, Shukla, Lal, and Guptas or the entire population of Madhes? Is this fight only for rights of Madhesis or the people like me too, whose forefathers have been living in Madhes for almost ten generations and had no connection of any kind with hills?

In my view, Madhesi leaders should not narrow their reach and harden ethnic boundaries. Ethnic politics does not take one very far. Neither Bedananda Jha, nor Gajendra Narayan Singh could reach very far. Gore Bahadur Khapange proved to be a disaster. It might provide instant solace to some but there is very little one can get out of ethnic politics.

There are millions of Paharis born and brought up in Madhes and have no connection with hills. MJF and TMLP should try to earn their support too. They are by all measures not less Tarians than any Thakur, Yadav, Mishra, Jha, Mahoto or Gupta that reside in the tarai. And, they will not hesitate to throw their support behind Mahanth Thakur and Upendra Yadav if convinced.

The leaders of MJF and TMLP should try to learn a lesson from the recent success of Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh, India. She achieved what messiah of Dalits in India, Bhim Rao Ambedkar and her mentor Kanshi Ram, could not in their lifetime. However, it took her more than a decade to realize that in ethnically diverse societies, focusing only on certain castes or ethnicity does not take one very far. This realization made her make a complete U-turn from tilak, taraju aur talwar, maro unko jhoote char (beat up Brahmins, Vaishyas and Kshatriyas) to Haathi nahin Ganesh hain, Brahma Vishnu Mahesh hain (it is not elephant but Lord Ganesh, symbolizing all gods and communities).

The politics of inclusion clearly benefited Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh and will benefit Mahanth Thankur and Upendra Yadav in the tarai. Slogans and rhetoric alone cannot win elections. Especially in a region where approximately 40 percent of population is Pahari, you just have two options: either engage yourself in ethnic cleansing, which will erode your democratic credentials or ensure inclusion of those Paharis that, like you all have been ignored and undermined, by fellow Pahari Brahmins in the corridors of power. There are millions of Paharis residing in the tarai that have no problem having a Madhesi leader as a president or prime minister. All you got to do is, make them feel safer and secured.

Don't fall into the trap of secessionists. Secession by no means is an answer to oppression. Oppression and exclusion can be defeated from within. The partition of India has not made Muslims in Pakistan any better. Indian Muslims are experiencing far more political freedom than their counterpart in Pakistan. There is no end if we start running from the oppressors with our small share. We should learn to fight back and defeat them.

Neither all Paharis are oppressors, nor are all Madhesis oppressed. The tarai is eagerly waiting for someone like Mayawati who can ensure inclusion of not only Madhesis but also Paharis that have been bypassed by those in corridors of powers that have forgotten what they stand for.