Stuck in a quagmire

Baburam Bhattarai’s promise for a “forward-looking” constitution witnessed a tragic death with the demise of the Constituent Assembly. His promise for good governance is running out of gas with his signature populist “Hello Sarkar” programme turning into a black hole where public grievances are sucked in and vanish. His failure to take action against his Cabinet colleagues: Bhim Prasad Gautam and Mahendra for irregularities reveal his advocacy and conviction towards good governance. And what an absolute farce his promise for social justice has turned out to be! People, whose property were seized by the revolutionaries that he and his progressive colleagues trained to bring about socioeconomic transformation, are still waiting for the transfer of ownership. 

His claims that the bloody insurgency he and his fellow comrades waged was needed to wipe out nepotism and strengthen national sovereignty, too, have been proven false. The recent appointment of Chirak Shova Tuladhar, Bhattarai’s sister-in-law, as the Tribhuvan University’s dean of the Faculty of Science reveals his conviction towards eradicating nepotism and understanding his own ability to withstand external pressure. Given the fact that the Promised Land is nowhere in the sight, perpetual optimists who believed in Bhatarai’s honesty all along may want to ponder whether Bhatarai’s surrender to violence to get where he is now was an act of heroism or a shrewd political move to further his ambition. 

Was Bhattarai bound to fail? Absolutely. His playbook to remain in power is not very different from the one used by ideologues in the former Soviet Union and the one that is being currently used in Cuba and North Korea. Bhattarai believes in expanding the size and scope of the government so that people have a false sense of security. He is least concerned about the poor delivery of services. It may be hard for well-informed citizens to understand why he does not realise the fact that it is virtually impossible to run a welfare state when a big chunk of your budget comes from foreign aid and the bureaucracy responsible for running the welfare state is ill-trained and politically divided.  But here is what he is trying to achieve through his big government—a platform that allows construction of counterfactual propositions and arguments. Had I been given the required time and freedom to pursue all my well-intentioned and thought-out plans, the country would have been free from the shackles of poverty, dependency, and underdevelopment. The country would be in a different league altogether, where bargaining for equal bilateral treaties would be much easier. Can you see the brilliance behind the ballooning of the size and scope of the government? 

While Bhattarai exhibits unmatched political shrewdness, the opposition is utterly incompetent and delusional. The NC and UML leadership have no agenda whatsoever than to shamelessly pursue the struggle for power. The new boss of the NC, Sushil Koirala, has surrounded himself with a herd of Girija Prasad Koirala protégés, who are not only dishonest and corrupt, but also lack the imagination needed to outsmart the establishment that very well understands and manipulates the sensibilities of the general public. Koirala himself does not seem to realise the fact that his own claims and actions are at odds. He claims that the party stands for democracy but denounces the conviction of Khum Bahadur Khadka, who is regarded as one of the most corrupt politicians of the post-1990 era. It is quite understandable that seeing a protégé of your mentor be convicted for corruption is painful, but the kid-glove treatment to corruption and misrule eventually derails democracy. Your claim as a saviour of democracy becomes indefensible the very minute you try defending people convicted by the Supreme Court, whose approval rating is way higher than your party. 

The NC leadership’s incompetence becomes even more glaring, when leaders such as Sher Bahadur Deuba, come out in support for the reinstatement of the expired CA. This shows the lack of understanding of the importance of rule of law in democratic consolidation, which Deuba claims to have worked for all his adult life. Dishonesty runs even deeper. Leaders shamelessly flip-flop on their position and records. Recently, a former finance minister in Girija Prasak Koirala’s government after the Jana Andolan of 2006 that oversaw the transfer of funds accused the Maoists of being involved in corruption in the name of more than 6,000 “fake” Maoist combatants. It is not the Maoists, but him, who should be blamed and held accountable for the failure to carry out due diligence and plundering the state coffer. This claim of corruption at this juncture sounds like a well-calculated move to climb the ladder. With the former super stars of the NC already behind bars or on their way to the big house, there’s room for upward mobility. Who says Nepali politicians lack vision? 

Political tribalism, incompetence, and dishonesty run deep within political parties. Some argue that the Supreme Court derailed the constitution-making process by forcing the politicians to adhere to a deadline. But in reality, it was political tribalism at its best that derailed the process, which was supposed to be participatory and transparent. In order to further political ambitions, a handful of leaders acted like tribal chiefs that benefit from a mix of loyalties, earned respect, and well-wielded power. As a result, the democratic deliberation process of constitution-making was turned into something so hostile and filled with anger and rage that the CA members were doing little more than screaming at each other. The country would not have been better off on an endless journey of constitution-making. 

If Nepal is to get back on track and evolve as a modern society, judicial activism alone is not enough. There is another institution, which needs to follow the path taken by the judiciary, and that is the media. Increased media scrutiny of politicians’ actions and the support for rule of law is needed. Consensus is great, but in this day and age, whereby a household cannot be run on consensus indefinitely, it is useless to keep on harping on the idea. At present, representative politics is completely disconnected from people, which has tremendously increased the risk of a legitimacy crisis as well as a crisis of policy implementation. Unless the media takes a greater responsibility and forces politics to connect with people, which is not something that bosses of major political parties are interested in, consolidation of democracy is virtually impossible. As long as the current herd of politicians have the opportunity and power to decide on contentious issues, prospects of having a viable constitution will remain bleak. The media should push for a referendum under the leadership of a neutral figure to settle contentious issues of the new statute. Let people decide what they want.
 

 

Shameless power struggle

The political parties continue to foist ugly power struggle on an unwilling and ailing nation. It is very unlikely that the ongoing power struggle will end with the sixth round of prime ministerial election slated for Sept 5. The struggle will not end, not because it cannot, if sincere effort is made, but because the stakes are too high for the parties involved. Nepali Congress (NC) does not want Puspa Kamal Dahal to become the PM for a very simple reason. Once Dahal gets back to the power, it will be virtually impossible to edge him out. With the strength that Dahal has in the Constituent Assembly, money his fellow proletariats have made after coming over ground, and the muscle power that he has kept intact by not agreeing to the integration plan proposed by the ruling coalition members, NC with its dwindling base has more than enough reasons to play safe. Besides that, NC’s politicians that have gotten shamelessly used to taking turns in enjoying power without facing the electorate, genuinely think that it is their turn to rule the country.

For the Maoists, the situation is equally tricky. Dahal and his fellow comrades very well understand that whoever becomes the Prime Minister now will oversee the expiration of the CA. They will have no bargaining power that they enjoy now once the CA expires, all bets will be off. The transformation of image, from murderous guerillas to elected politicians has been a glorious one. Power, prestige, and money that came with the transformation of image are not things that the Maoists would want to lose. Going back to jungles is, thus, not an option anymore, no matter how hard they try to lie about it. They want more power, not less. And, they will keep holding the nation hostage one way or the other till they get what they want.

As far as Jhala Nath Khanal is concerned, he has no option but to operate under the guise of neutrality. The pace with which political and security situation is worsening in the country, he very well understands that he might not have another chance in the future. For now, playing at the hands of the Maoist comrades very well serves his purpose and there is very little K P Oli and Madhav Nepal can do about it. Pushing Khanal too hard may result in getting him even closer to the Maoists, which obviously Oli and Nepal do not want. Madhav has already become the Prime Minister, but for Oli, that dream is still alive, and in order to fulfill that, he needs his party to remain intact. If courting external force alone was enough, politicians of fringe parties would have become PM long ago. Oli is seasoned enough to understand that reality. So, for Oli, there is very little that he can do at this point in time than letting Khanal continue his quest for premiership under the veil of neutrality.

The problem, however, is not limited to domestic struggle over power. It runs way too deep. Like domestic political forces, international forces, too, are also trying hard to out-compete each other. The quest for control has gotten so fierce that India has engaged itself to such a level that it has started micromanaging things in Nepal. Increased Indian activities have alarmed China. Recent flurry of visits by Chinese officials clearly hints that China is definitely not happy about bloated Indian presence in Nepal. Besides, India and China, which happen to have the biggest interest in having Nepal in their sphere of influence, there are other Western forces that have significant interest in Nepal. Multiple external actors with both covert and overt interest and their support to warring sides have brought the political process to a grinding halt.

While both domestic and external struggle for control over Nepal is getting uglier and deadlocked, there is something else that is happening in Nepal. The state is slowly but certainly inching toward collapse. The industrial sector is bleeding to death due to a daily eight-hour power cut and the militant activities of the Maoists’ labor union. More than 300 industries, mostly small and medium ones, are believed to have shut their gates for good. When the entire world is progressing from industrialization, Nepal is wriggling backward. The dependency on subsistence agriculture is increasing. The only ray of hope is foreign employment. But putting too much faith on it will not get us anywhere. Had remittance been answer to domestic growth, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other leading labor exporting countries would have been first world nations long time ago.

The decay in security situation is equally alarming. Some 10,000 illegal small arms are believed to be floating around in the capital alone. If this is the situation in the capital city, what it would be like to live in hinterlands, where the state’s authority has completely eroded? In order to buy-in popular support, political parties, especially the Maoist, pushed social mobilization to such a dangerous level that it has out-stripped institutional capacity. The level of sophistication and impunity with which land sharks operate in the country and radical communists that pretend to be playing by the norms of democracy confiscate private property says all about the power of the institutions on the ground. Both personal and political freedom of citizens has been severely curtailed. For citizens, the collapse of the state is an abstraction. It has already happened.

The chaos will further worsen if strong action is not taken immediately. The problem, however, is that there is no institution in Nepal that sees itself as the bulwark against worsening chaos. The president has so far been reluctant to send even a strong signal. He seems content hosting dinners for foreign dignitaries and gracing religious functions. The only bold step he took after he took office was the reinstatement of Rookmangud Katwal as the army chief. The time has come again that he steps forward and does the needful. The first thing in his to-do list should be the dissolution of this worthless CA. Even the partisan hacks now acknowledge that this CA will not draft the constitution, so what’s the point in wasting tax payers’ money in feeding fraudulent sharks? Dissolve the CA and demine the field by putting criminals behind bars. The election date should come along with the dissolution notice, or else, these very politicians that have been making a mockery of democracy will try to paint the president as a dictator. Contentious agendas such as the federal structure should be put on the ballot.

It is important to put an end to the manipulative politics that Dahal and his fellow comrades are engaged in and force politicians of moderate political parties that have mastered the shameless art of backdoor dealings to face the electorate. Enough is enough!

Never-ending political crisis

The nation would plunge into a bigger chaos if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is not extended. Nepali people must have heard this countless times in the past months, of course, and many must have accepted it without thinking. Life would be hunky dory and we would all live happily thereafter, political pundits and the media hinted. It was portrayed as the final hurdle to the finish line. Contrary to the political pundit and media’s assertion, the political stalemate has rather thickened. The latest deal retailed as an essential leap to bail out the country from plunging into the bigger chaos is increasingly appearing as another doomed assertion.

The gravest problem this nation faces is the inability of the so- called intellectuals and media to confront the fact that we shouldn’t resort to deals to govern the nation. Deals can be conveniently bent or broken to suit political outcomes. In a country, where the end justifies the means, resorting to deals to bail the nation out of political stalemate is itself a recipe for disaster. Where have the countless deals signed in the past taken us?

Nepalis complain endlessly about how immoral and stupid politicians are, and how badly they have lied to the public about this or that. But what we forget is that our politicians perfectly represent a nation that shows such a thoroughgoing incapacity for thought, and such an aversion to the truth about their own behavior. We seek morality and honesty in our politicians, when we, ourselves, are unwilling to confront the truth for what it is. It is high time that our political pundits and media bosses take a deep breath and try to analyze the crux of the problem before suggesting the easiest way out.

By endlessly opting for an easy way out, we are piling up the problems and letting it accumulate for implosion. Instead of letting the parties fight it out democratically in elections, we are forcing them to do backdoor dealings, which are often not followed. If one is to venture forward mentally one baby step, one will quickly come to see that the deal that was struck minutes before the expiration of CA was a political necessity more than anything else. It was not something that came out of realization of responsibility towards Nepali people. Had KP Oli not struck a deal, the UML would have witnessed a vertical split. With the migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist camp, Oli would have lost substantial amount of political capital and the backing of India that he enjoys now. For Oli, it was a desperate act of political survival. As far as Pushpa Kamal Dahal is concerned, with dissolution of the CA, his stature and the bargaining power, which stems out of the sheer number that the Maoist party has in CA, would have ceased to exist. With India and the major political parties against Dahal’s prime ministerial aspirations, keeping the CA alive was a political necessity. For the Nepali Congress, sailing with the CPN-UML was the only option at hand. Keeping the CPN-UML intact is not only in the best interest of Oli and the incumbent prime minister but also the congress party. Any vertical split in the CPN-UML and the breakaway faction’s migration to the Maoist camp shall further dwarf the NC’s stature, which is the last thing that the NC wants at this point in time. NC’s political future is very much dependent upon its symbiotic relationship with the CPN-UML.

What happened during the eve of May 28 was a desperate act of political survival. Now, that political parties have successfully bailed themselves out without spending much of their political capital, the game is on to out-fox each other. The NC and CPN-UML are all set to outsmart the Maoists in the very game that the Maoists used against them not a very long ago. The Maoists want to bounce back to the power by adhering to one of the three points in the deal—Prime Minister’s resignation—and undermining others. Whereas the CPN-UML, NC and India want to checkmate Dahal by asking the Maoists to first fulfill other points in the deal, which is virtually impossible. The power of the Maoist party and its control over the society comes from the muscle of the battle hardened fighters, whom it slyly rebranded as young communist leaguers and the loyal party members who are now enjoying the property looted in the last two decades. Why would the Maoists alienate its base and heed the demands put forward by NC and CPM-UML? It simply does not make any sense.

So far, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has kept his prime ministerial aspirations under wraps. He wants to throw his hat in the ring after the incumbent resigns. And, that is where the problem lies. Both India and politicians of the major political parties do not want Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the next prime minister. For India, he is too unreliable to serve Indian interests, whereas for others, he is too ambitious and charismatic, who they think can cut their size further down. India would immediately give its nod and other parties would follow suit, if Baburam Bhattarai was to become the next prime minister. With the major political parties at home and India in an antagonistic mode, it might be the last thing that Pushpa Kamal Dahal might want at this point in time. In a quest for a shortcut through a new set of deals, we might have embarked on a senseless political quagmire. Very soon another round of deal-making might be needed to troubleshoot the snag in the deal signed on May 28.

After all our nation is governed through deals, what’s wrong with that?

Let CA expire

The two-year term of the Constituent Assembly (CA) is coming to an end on May 28. If not extended, which is highly unlikely, the CA’s 601 members will become jobless. Those that want to see these 601 bench warmers get jobless after May 28, hold your breath, do not hedge your bets, yet. A last minute deal on extension is very likely. The extension also extends flow of pay and perks. And when it comes to enriching oneself, Nepali politicians are shamelessly forthcoming. Consensus evade our politicians only when it comes to agreeing on matters that affect common men whose lives are severely blighted by the effects of poverty, unemployment, and lawlessness.

So far, the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML and few smaller parties are the ones that have come forward vouching for the extension of the CA. I, for one, am totally against such a move. Extending the tenure of the CA is wrong on many levels. To begin with, there is no provision in the interim constitution that permits the extension of the CA. Also, it is against the spirit of electoral democracy. The major political parties that are vouching for the extension of the CA are, in reality, undermining the fact that in democracy, office holders are supposed to be responsive to the needs and desires of voters. In the case of failure to do so, which is the case, voters have the right to “throw the rascals out.” Basically, by extending the CA, the politicians are trying to devoid the voters their right and subvert the process of accountability.

As clever as they are, the Maoists do not want to lend their support for extension of the CA until Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal steps down. After suffering major setbacks in recent months, they now have realized that their chances of getting back to power through majority rule are slim. Hence, they want to revert back to the consensus system, which they milked to the fullest extent. They were the ones that undermined the consensus system in an attempt to get Ram Raja Prasad Singh elected as the president. Despite their firm posture, there is very little room to believe that the Maoists will actually stick to not lending their support for extension. More than anything else, it is a bargaining ploy. For the Maoists, it is the CA that provides them the status of the largest party. With its expiration, all bargains that stems out of their status as the largest party is off the table.

In this debate on whether or not the CA should be extended, the real issues that dwarfed the chances of having the new constitution in the first place is still not being discussed. Pundits bemoan the absence of bipartisanship. Implicitly, they believe that bipartisanship is necessary and sufficient to solve the existing political crisis. In their short-sightedness, they fail to acknowledge the fact that Nepali politics today actually is beset with irreconcilable differences. What the Maoists want at the end of the day is drastically different from that of the NC, UML, and other pro-parliamentary forces in Nepal. The nation is bitterly divided over ideology. Most people who care about politics are on one side or the other.

It is time to acknowledge the fact that it is not the lack of time but differences over the issues that derailed the prospects of timely constitution. Without consensus on contentious issues such as integration of members of the People’s Liberation Army, dissolution of the Young Communist League, return of property seized by Maoists, guarantee of return of the internally-displaced people, and agreement on federal structure, the extension of the CA really does not make any sense. We can extend the CA by another five years and will still not have a constitution. And even if we ended up having one, the question of legitimacy will simply not go away. So what’s the point?

Doing something that is beyond the spirit of interim constitution is not the right thing to do. It is high time that we do the right thing rather than things that are easy or appear right. There is a huge difference between doing the right thing and doing things right. Doing things right is a moving target that is based upon influence, power and control. In other words, it is another way of conforming to a politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out. And, we all know where embarking on politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out has gotten us. Many of those that took the credit for bringing the Maoists over ground are in the relentless process of reinventing themselves. They are now showcasing themselves as the wall of resistance against Maoist takeover. It is amazing to witness how easy it is to re-brand oneself in Nepal. By now, educated Nepalis, to whom country comes before political masters, must have gotten a good long look at the audacity of shamelessness, and seen how well it works out for those who dared try it.

The political parties should let the CA expire and brace for fresh election. At this juncture, facing the electorate is the right thing to do. It takes great character, conviction, and confidence to do the right thing, which is why it has become a rarity in Nepali politics. It would involve personal sacrifices, political risk, and standing against the incompetent bench warmers in the CA that are constantly looking out for short-cuts to save their job, but also provides an opportunity to come clean and separate oneself from those that are masquerading as democrats.

Will 2010 be any different?

Nobody can tell for sure if 2010 will be any better than the year 2009. It is difficult to predict what the year 2010 holds for Nepal not because of the uncertain nature of Nepali politics but because the power to shape Nepal’s future no longer lies in the hands of Nepali politicians. The ruling coalition, although technically legitimate, continues to remain in power despite its lethal incompetence for a simple reason - India wants it to remain in power. The government is rudderless and more interested in its day-to-day survival than anything else.

It might be intellectually taxing for external observers trying to make sense out of how a twenty-two party coalition with diverse political ideologies and agendas continue to sail through by shutting out the largest party in parliament, but for someone that keeps a close eye on Nepali politics, it is not anything puzzling or new. Nepali political parties have long been transformed into subservient clients by India and this is not the first time that they are herded at India’s behest. An inconvenient truth about Nepali politics is that over the years India has successfully transformed Nepali political parties into subservient clients.

The fall of Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government over the Rookmangud Katawal’s controversy is a clear depiction of what could happen if a party dares to outgrow its client status. The withdrawal of support to Dahal’s government by the coalition members was the inability of the members to act against the Indian directives than anything else. The politicians in Nepal know very well that acting against the master’s wishes could prove to be fatal, politically.

Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire. Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists.After the fall of the Maoist government, Dahal and his fellow comrades have been trying their best to arouse nationalist fervor for political expediency. For people, who have closely watched the inception of the Maoist insurgency and its subsequent growth over the years, the role that India played in grooming Nepali Maoist party and unleashing it as a political force is no secret. The Maoists’ and India’s path crossed when Dahal tried repeating King Mahendra’s game of playing China card against India. In doing so, what Dahal and his fellow comrades failed to understand is that the internal political dynamics and the geopolitical realities had changed drastically over the years. Unlike B P Koirala, who then was unwilling to turn Nepal into a client state, there are way too many politicians that are happy to execute that role now. Dahal and his men were way off in calculating the level of India’s penetration in Nepali politics.

Out of power, the Maoists are now playing the nationalist card to drum-up support basically to force India to engage them. The Maoists know very well that in a nation with approximately half of the population around twenty-six years in age, which boasts of Nepal’s uncompromised sovereignty, anti-India rhetoric will always play out well. For these youngsters that grew up witnessing rising political corruption, lawlessness, and increasing Indian involvement in Nepali politics, it is quite natural to fall into the Maoists’ jingoistic trap. But before falling into the trap, it is important that the younger generation try and understand what the Maoist party that grew on Indian benevolence wants to gain out of the latest nationalist tirade. It is important to make sure that the Maoist party, which would definitely not have been what is today without India’s material and moral support, uses the support of the nationalists, especially the younger generation that boasts of uncompromised sovereignty of Nepal, to safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty, but not as a bargaining chip to outbid other clients’ will to serve Indian interests.

So what does it look like in terms of achieving peace and stability in 2010? The chances are slim! The chances are slim because the party that has the majority in the parliament is yet to realize the consequences of slowing down the process of drafting the constitution. After May 28, 2010, when the term of the CA expires, the political capital that arose from CA electoral victory will no longer be there for the Maoists to boast upon. There will be no venue for the Maoists, except for the streets, to vent their anger.

The politicians of the current coalition most of whom have been reduced to poodles that are willing to tirelessly wag the tail at India’s behest will be the ones that will benefit the most if the constitution is not drafted on time. If the Maoists are real nationalists, they should realize that the best way to reduce Indian interference in Nepal is by ensuring that there is a constitution by the end of May, which will ensure future elections. The Maoists can reduce Indian interference by winning elections handsomely even though some danger of Indian-administered split of the party will always remain a possibility. Let the actions replace rhetoric this time around.Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire.

Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists. As a matter of fact, many politicians within the various political parties want that to happen. With no safe haven to seek refuge in, unlike in the past, the Maoists will be at the receiving end. The Maoists still have the real opportunity to translate the impending crisis into an opportunity. Speed up the constitution-drafting process so that elections can take place in future.

With the kind of support the Maoist party commands on the ground, Dahal can once again emerge victorious. All he has got to do is control criminal activities that the YCL and his militant labor union are engaged in. A little extra effort to win the support of educated and civilized mass that the Maoist party lacks at the moment will do no harm.If Dahal fails to the see the writing on the wall and act swiftly in the next couple of weeks, we will not have peace anytime soon. Peace will only come after India completely turns the Maoist party into one of its subservient clients ready to serve Indian interests.

No matter what it says, India wants Nepal to be a client state and they have not been this close anytime in the history of Nepal in realizing their goal.

The ultimate betrayal

Finally, by nominating Ram Raja Prasad Singh for the post of president, the Maoists have officially ended an era of consensus politics. An eternal journey with the Maoists, which the Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) told us was necessary to build a "New Nepal," is in lurch, after the Maoists have shut the door on the NC and the UML and have decided to build a "New Nepal" on their own.

Things are shaping up to be pretty odd. With the Maoists' latest act of betrayal, Nepali politics is, slowly but surely, getting confrontational. With the Maoists resorting to, my-way-or-the highway attitude, the settling of political vendetta will take the center-stage. Constitution making is the last thing in the minds of politicians. For the Maoists, it is all about how to consolidate the power, and for others, how to contain the Maoists and maximize political bargains.

The mainstream political parties of yesteryears are back to the square one. In 2005, an autocratic monarch had shut the door on them, and now, after three years, it is the very party that they helped spread base in the urban center repeating the act. Is it fate's cruel prank or inability on the part of UML and NC politicians to understand and tackle authoritarian tendencies?

Was it expected? Oh, yes, except a few greedy power-mongers within the NC and the UML, who thought that protracted ideological decay was worth it, everyone else were well aware of the Maoists' intent, and saw betrayal coming. Short term power mongering over long term political survival was almost certain to yield the consolidation of state power, but with the Maoists at the helm.

The NC and UML were bound to get betrayed. It was just a matter of time. It is not only because the Maoists' modus operandi is based on betrayal and lies, but also because the Maoists' strategic end goal: the establishment of a one-party communist republic directly conflicts with the end goal of the NC and UML. Anyone following the Maoist insurgency can easily tell that, at no point throughout the entire period of insurgency or the peace process has its leadership or the surrogates expressed anything but a full-fledged commitment to the establishment of a dictatorship of the proletariats. Any misrepresentation of the Maoists' strategic intent has come from outside the party -- mainly from the power-mongers within the NC, UML or the left-leaning civil society.

Had Girija Prasad Koirala not allowed the peace process to be reduced to an "appease process" by fulfilling each and every demand raised by the Maoists, the situation would have been quite different now. Had he taken time to dispassionately evaluate the Maoist machine, he would have understood long ago that the Maoists are in this to win -- not to compromise, or become mainstreamed or to play by anyone else's rules but their own.

The Maoists were successful in clouding his judgments by dangling "Presidential Lollypop" in front of him. Once the Maoists started doing that, their anti-social and undemocratic means were simply shrugged off as negativities associated with the transitional phase.

The NC and UML should learn a lesson from how the Maoists have done "business" to date. Their failure to put oneself inside the Maoist mind and see things as they see them, to understand their beliefs, strategy, and supporting tactics have put ordinary cadres in far flung villages in a very difficult position.

In the last two years, the fat cats within the NC and UML might have profited financially, but when it comes to grassroots cadres, they are worse off than they were three years ago. In the tarai, they have to face the wrath of the secessionists like Nagendra Paswan and Jay Krishna Goit, and in the hills, newly mushroomed ethnic militant groups have made their life miserable. It is not only the NC and UML cadres that are having a hard time in the changed political context, but there is another group called Internally Displaced People (IDPs) that did not benefit a bit from the grand coalition of the last three years. They are the forgotten heroes, whose woes both the NC and the UML chose to ignore.

What next? The Maoists will use different combinations of muscle power and ballots to eliminate all marginal threats to their expanding power base. Whether this process of elimination occurs figuratively or literally, whether through perversions of democratic process or through decrees will get clearer in the days ahead.

There is a very little evidence to support that the Maoists will play by the democratic rule book. They will pretend to act democratic as long as it benefits them to do so, but that does not mean that the Maoists have embraced multi-party democracy. They have already started to interpret their victory in the CA election as unconditional support for the full execution of the 'Prachanda path." The chances for a radical party to continue carrying out radical policies in the changed political context should not be negated. It would be a mistake of Himalayan proportion to rely on liberal interpretations of what the Maoist leaders say.

Puspa Kamal Dahal is not that foolish to adopt North Korean-styled one party rule in the current geopolitical situation, but he will do everything to ensure that there is no threat to the Maoist regime from the political opponents that believe in Western-styled multi-party parliamentary democracy. With the brigade of brigands (YCL) at his disposal and the state's security forces under his control, it will not be very difficult for him to find other ways to subvert political competition and administer social control.

The future of the mainstream political parties of yesteryears such as the NC and the UML and the new entrants like MJF and TMLP will largely depend upon how quickly they can reinvent themselves and provide credible alternatives to the Maoist writ. They have a very difficult role to play: checkmate the Maoists and appear constructive to the general populace at the same time. Or else, they will be painted as obstructionists. With security apparatus under the Maoists' control and YCL in villages, the Maoists have more than they need to win elections. The last thing you want to do is give them a chance to vilify your personality.

Political equality & election systems

It is not very difficult to understand why the Maoists want to hijack Nepali citizens' right to self-determination and want to declare the country republic through the interim parliament. The Maoists want to declare the country republic through the interim parliament because they want to create a political vacuum and fill it. Politically, it is a no-brainer. But why would a party with a goal of establishing a proletarian communist state remain adamant on its demand for proportional electoral system, which is supposed to be one of the best systems to ensure the quality of democracy, might be a bit difficult for some to understand.

Is the election system the culprit behind the current political and social inequality in Nepal or the ongoing rambling is mainly because the electoral system that will be adopted is going to determine the political future of the major political parties? Later is the case. Electoral system matters for political parties because it impacts the distribution of seats in parliament, which in turn influences cabinet durability. In other words, electoral system is not value neutral: It determines the method in which votes are translated into seats and who gets into the parliament and who gets out.

Theoretically, Proportional (PR) system ensures political and social equality better than Majoritarian (MR) system, but is that why the Maoists are after PR system? There is no basis to believe that. When the Maoists are reluctant to accept ethnic political outfits --MPRF and NIFIN -- as legitimate political force and do not want to push for the fulfillment of their legitimate demands, there is no reason -- at least now -- to believe that the Maoists want PR system for ensuring the political and social equality.

Furthermore, when the Maoists do not want to embrace parliamentary democracy and want to ultimately establish a proletarian communist state, on what basis should people of Nepal believe that there is no hidden motive behind the Maoist demand for PR system? As the Maoists are very good at exploiting the system and changing the rules of engagement, the current demand for PR system cannot be judged on the basis of PR system's impact on democratic quality. We have to factor in the Maoists' motive into the equation. It is not about what the PR system can do but what the Maoists want to do with the PR system.

Needless to say, the Maoists have turned Nepal into "Guinea Pig" on which they have been conducting all sorts of experimentation without realizing the future political and social repercussions. What the Maoists in their blind quest for power are not realizing is that, when you try too many things, too fast, you overwhelm the system, which then starts producing negative outcomes. One such example is the division of the state along the ethnicity. The Maoists had hoped to buy unequivocal and ever lasting support of ethnic groups by dividing the nation along the ethnicity, which obviously did not happen.

On contrary, their short-sighted politics backfired and they lost total control in tarai.

Both PR and MR systems have their advantages and disadvantages. Arend Lijphart, in his influential study "Patterns of Democracy" empirically demonstrates that, PR systems are associated with a higher quality of democracy than MR systems. On the other hand, Guy Lardeyret, a staunch supporter of MR system argues that, in MR systems, the political power is concentrated in the hands of a majority, which is unified, with decisive leadership and hence coherent policies and fast-decision making can be promoted. MR system has better chances of having responsive and accountable governments than the PR system mainly because the party in power has to bear clearer responsibility for policy-making.

Furthermore, elections in MR system provide citizens the right either to renew the term of incumbent government or to "throw the irresponsible idiots out." MR system, thus, strengthens the link between constituents and their representatives and ensures accountability.

When it comes to comparing MR and PR systems, there is no universal consensus. Theoretically, MR systems are better at governing, whereas PR systems are better at representing. According to Joel Barkan, proportional system is not the most appropriate for agrarian societies with a relatively low level of development and a large illiterate population. It simply does not produce desired results in representation, accountability, and government effectiveness. As the seats are allocated from the party lists based on the party's proportion of the national votes, representatives are not recognized and cannot be held accountable for residents of a specific constituency. Thus, the weak linkage between representatives and constituents reduces the prospects for the quality of democratic system.

According to MG Schmidt, one of the major drawbacks of PR system is that, in PR systems, accountability tends to evaporate in countless networks, bargaining and search of compromises.

When it comes to the electoral system that is suitable to Nepal, agrarian and ethnically divided society like ours needs MR systems, at least for some years till we have larger pool of educated and well informed voters and competent politicians. In a country like ours, whereby we have a history of a majority government not completing its designated term, more party in the parliament means slow legislative process, increased indecisiveness on issues of national importance, and the chances of frequent dissolution of the parliament and cabinet.

Taagepera and Shugart (1989) empirically demonstrate a direct impact of number of parties in parliament on government durability. According to their "inverse square law to cabinet durability," the number of potential inter-and intra-party conflicts equals the square number of effective parties, and the cabinet durability is reduced by half when the number of potential conflict doubles. In other words, the more parties in the parliament the more conflict between and within these parties, and the more conflict in the parliament, which in turn tremendously increases the chances of brining down the government prematurely. Can an impoverished Nepal afford to have frequent elections?

We must adopt a system that works best in the socio-political context of Nepal rather than one that is theoretically sound. In a country whereby a majority government cannot last for a complete five years, having more parties in the parliament will be a recipe for disaster. It will take partisan politics, which is already at its worst form, towards even more ugly and chaotic direction. Democratic stability will be a mirage due to increase in intra-and inter-party conflicts.

What we need at this point in time is: a responsible, accountable, and efficient government that can maintain law-and-order and come up with sound economic policies to spur economic growth. As far as political equality is concerned, it all depends upon politicians. As long as they keep on distributing the seats in the parliament reserved for civil society members and members of professional organizations shamelessly to the politicians of their own party like they did during the formation of interim parliament, the talk of political equality does not have any relevance. We may have best system in place, but unless the existing insincere behavior of our politicians changes, political and social equality will remain an elusive dream. It is not the electoral system that fails democracy, but politicians that are supposed to abide by the democratic principles and make the institution of election properly work.

New Beginning or Dead End?

After a year of political marathon, the Eight Party Alliance's (EPA) government has reached a dead end. With the CA elections in limbo, the EPA government is rapidly losing its legitimacy to govern and the notion of "New Nepal" is losing its appeal. The inability on the part of the EPA government to announce fresh poll dates has raised a question of legitimacy on part of EPA to govern.

The unmatched enthusiasm pumped among the citizens by the people's revolution-II is being deflated at an unprecedented rate. Due to the mishandling of the opportunity by EPA, the Nepali people have started concluding that nothing has changed except the names at the top. Things have changed both for the rank and files of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) that were on the run during King Gyanendra's regime and the Maoists that took cover of the nature-forests - to keep their lives and dreams afloat. The biggest beneficiary, however, has been CPN (Maoist) who got a safe landing and leapfrogging opportunity from the darkness of jungles to the corridor of the Singha Durbar.

Needless to say, EPA has tremendously benefited from the people's trust and willingness to rally behind them, but what have people gained? It is high time to balance the book. With the increase in violence, insecurity, and the government's inability to conduct CA elections, the Nepali people who have become consumers of false dreams sold by politicians have started asking themselves: Was people's evolution-II for us or for the politicians whose political careers have been choked by King Gyanendra?

While the hand-picked parliamentarians are drawing fat checks for raising hands to consent on the decisions made by the top leaders of their respective parties, the transition period meant to secure peace and ensure the long-term prosperity of the Nepali people, the populace is laden with violence, chaos, and insecurity. This further complicates the minimum conditions required for conducting CA elections. The question that arises now is how long the interim parliament and the EPA government should be in place before it is deemed that they have lost the consent of the governed? What can they do to buy the required legitimacy to govern, if anything?

Be it before the start of the Maoist insurgency, during the insurgency, or after the safe landing of the Maoists, things are same for the rich and famous and their kids. They had everything to lead a comfortable life and buy their safety. The Maoists did not inflict a scratch on the rich and famous because of their symbiotic relationship that was largely based on the money that they could extract from the privileged class.

As usual, things are normal for the privileged class now. While the sons and daughters of the rich and famous frivolously spend money to sweat themselves out in discos in the capital, the children of poor in the far-flung villages are sweating out of nervousness of not being able to keep their dreams afloat.

Thus, the biggest losers of the ongoing violence, insecurity, and the inability on the part of the government to navigate the nation towards political stability have been the poor and downtrodden populace. The sons and daughters of rich politicians and businessmen can buy one-way ticket to Western countries but what about the children of poor that are forced to waste their precious human life due to the inability of politicians to provide required opportunity to lead a meaningful life?

One of the many reasons why the plight of the indigents is not taken seriously is because most of the politicians have no clue about what it means to be a poor. While some were well off to begin with and are not in a position to understand how debilitating poverty is, others have amassed enough wealth (which would have been impossible if pursued through legal means) and have forgotten those old days whereby they had a hard time meeting basic necessities. Like the majority of politicians, the new entrants in Nepali politics (the Maoists) who successfully sold the dreams of prosperity to the largely illiterate and economically deprived populace, are not doing enough to fulfill peoples' aspirations.

They seem to not realize that their propagandist politics alone will not be of any help when it comes to building an egalitarian nation. They have no well-tested developmental model, no proven strategy to spur economic growth, no clue about how to properly redistribute wealth other than redistributing land, and no desire to secure peace which is a prerequisite to prosperity.

For development to take place there should be peace in the nation. Prachanda's dismissal of existence of other forces such as MPRF and NIFIN and his social workers turned militias are the main obstacles towards securing peace in the nation. Thus, Prachanda's claim that he would turn this largely hungry nation into a prosperous and well-functioning democracy like Switzerland is simply ludicrous. Who in the world would like to invest in a nation where shutdowns of industries by cadres of political parties happen on a mere whim, with intimidation and extortion rampant?

It did not take very long for the gain of mass movement of 1990 to dissipate. Fifteen years and we are back to square one. Hard-earned democracy did not last long because the rent-seeking coalition between business and politics served to fuel corruption and violence in the body politic of Nepal. Easy money earned through illegal means was used to sustain a new class of political elites who remained immune from the forces of law enforcement because of their political status and connection.

Like in the past, the politicians do not appear to be driven by a sense of mission to transform the society in a particular direction this time around too. If not corrected, the lack of developmental vision and the ability to secure peace amongst the current leadership, who do not seem to have learnt lessons from the past, will be compounded by their weak commitment to realize the importance of such a vision. Popular disillusionment is sure to occur like in the past which the Maoists cashed pretty smartly in their favor, mainly due to the failure of the state to deliver expected democratization of local social relations and political authority, continuing poverty and a widening gap between the haves and have-nots.

The only question that kept on lingering in people's mind after the fall of King Gyanendra's regime was, "What would our leaders do differently than they did after the fall of Panchayat regime in 1990 that would strengthen democracy and make Nepal prosperous?" And, our leaders are not doing anything differently even though the political and social landscape is not the same as it was during the early 1990s.

The time is running out for the EPA government. All the constituents of EPA should realize their mistakes and pledge a non confrontational style of politics. For any meaningful change to materialize, the centrist forces should correct their laid-back attitude, understand the need for a changed political landscape, and realize the urgency to work towards fulfilling people's aspirations. As far as the political left is concerned, it should pledge non rhetorical style of politics and stop abusing parliament as an arena for rhetorical exchanges.

It should be rather used as a vehicle for political consensus building. Furthermore, it should find ways to keep its unruly cadres within its grip. It somehow got to teach its cadres rational and civilized ways of protesting. Indulging in immoral acts of burning and destroying public property that we built through the tax payers' money is mockery of our own achievement.

If political leaders fail to understand the gravity of the situation and continued with their old habits, coming generations too will have to fight for democracy again. Failure to deliver development benefits and meet people's aspirations shall invite February 1st over and again in some form or another.

Insurgencies will easily flourish as impoverished societies are hot beds for such movements. The Maoist insurgency by no means is an end to rebellion. The desire to rebel shall stay put until the Eight Party Alliance (EPA) and the subsequent governments in the future are able to ensure peace, prosperity, and pursuit of happiness.