Will political drama ever end?

It’s already been two weeks since Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned from his post as the Prime Minister. His resignation would break the political deadlock and enhance the possibility of consensus politics. At least, that is what the Maoists said before he formally put his resignation on the paper and called it quits. Contrary to their assertion, his resignation has further thickened the plot.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his comrades had really hoped that once Nepal quit, it would be really easy to use gullible opportunists within the CPN-UML to pressurize their leadership to support the Maoists, which obviously has not happened so far. The Maoists’ calculation has once again gone wrong. But at least they had a formula that they thought would work in their favor. They are down but not out. They will pull up their sleeves and gear up for another showdown. So no matter who replaces Nepal, he or she will not have easier days ahead. It is, therefore, better to realize the fact that radical communism is part and parcel of Nepali politics. Undermining or wishing it away is naïve. Instead of engaging in endless checkmate game, it is better to keep them engaged and find ways to mainstream them.

While the Maoists are committed to achieving their end goal, come what may, the ruling coalition is glued together by two things: The lust for power and the threat of the Maoist intimidation and take over. The fragility of the coalition is evident from their differences over who should head the next government. If the coalition was really sincere about institutionalizing democracy and safeguarding the people’s rights, the issue of premiership would have been insignificant. Nepal’s resignation has thrown coalition members out of orbit.

The lust for power among the major political party leaders of the current coalition is the major reason why the President’s call to form a national consensus government failed to produce any results. Not only the first deadline but the second one was also missed. If the ongoing wrangling continues, we will have no idea of Nepal’s successor till the last minute. It is quite possible that the election of the new PM through voting in the Constituent Assembly (CA) on July 21 may still not produce a conclusive winner if the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were to field their own candidates.

Is anything wrong with the ongoing political drama? For external forces that have political and security interests in Nepal, politicians can wrangle as much as they want to. As long as the chaos is controllable, political pendulum can swing the way it likes. For politicians, it is the pay and perks that need to keep flowing. In the current situation whereby the prospect of facing electorate is extremely remote, the need to deliver is simply not in anybody’s priority. As far as the power brokers in Kathmandu are concerned, till the chances of remaining in circulation are alive, they will not have to worry about benefiting from the liquidation of the state. They have mastered the art of rebranding, can become anything from civil society members to partisan hack, as the political landscape shifts.

Given the level of insensitivity exhibited by the external players, politicians, and power brokers toward the degrading political and economic condition, it is high time that people hit the streets like they did against the Maoists’ blockade couple of months ago. The sooner the better. Nepali people need to be concerned about the degenerating political culture which is having a disastrous impact on the way we live and enjoy political and personal freedom. Not only that, it is also jeopardizing the prospects of socioeconomic development. Recently, the Maoist Central Committee member and commander of the PLA Fifth Division in Rolpa, Kali Bahadur Kham, was found to have conducted suspicious transaction with Chinese traders, who eventually ended up getting robbed by the revolutionary. This shows the level of criminalization in politics. It is not only the politicians that are resorting to criminal activities to enrich themselves. Tej Bahadur Karki, a Hetauda Appellate Court Judge, was recently suspended for his involvement in an inappropriate release of abduction kingpins: Sanjaya Shrestha, Rohit Paliwal Agrawal and Bhimsen Pundit. The ongoing rapid decay of institutions is having a serious impact on our chances to emerge as a modern and prosperous society. The new measure, called the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed and applied by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative with the support of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) shows that 78 percent of Nepalis live on two dollars a day. These poor are barely surviving, not thriving. We are even behind impoverished nations like Haiti, Djibouti, and Swaziland.

The reason why we are regressing despite never-ending progressive hoopla is that we let politics triumph over rules. We, as a nation, are more interested in political outcomes, rather than the process. We, as a matter of fact, do not care about the process at all. For example, we want a new government but are least concerned about whether the process of having such a government in place is transparent and ethical. By not doing so, we undermine the fact that what we are doing today will build on what we want to do tomorrow. If we want a transparent and functional political system, we should be prioritizing the process, rather than getting obsessed with outcomes. It might be a long and arduous process, but it at least ensures definite outcomes that cannot be easily rigged by corrupt politicians, that are more interested in enriching themselves rather than serving their constituents.

We should stop letting politics triumph over the rules. President Ram Baran Yadav, should make the CA members play by the rules and stop extending deadlines. Yadav, a decent man, must take part of the blame for political malaise. By appearing too lenient, he is making the swamp even murkier. It is time we drained the swamp to prevent it from becoming murkier and smellier. Politicians in the CA see take him for granted and treat as a fellow traveler rather an authority, where the buck should actually stop. The buck has to stop somewhere. Someone has to be there to say enough is enough or else the political drama will go on forever.

Re-thinking Maoist Democracy

The populist floodgates that have been thrown open has dangerously destabilized the country. In the name of equality, ethnic fundamentalism is on the rise. Law and order situation is in a shambles. Judiciary is being ridiculed and attacked. Can a nation with an acutely vulnerable judiciary, absence of law and order, and social capital (dangerously depleted by rising ethnic hatred) prosper and consolidate democracy?

Nepal represents a failing democracy in which the prospects for consolidation have narrowed down significantly mainly due to the politicians´ inability to manage peoples’ expectations and to look for solutions for domestic political problems from within the country.The ruling party has been inconsistently consistent about their lack of faith in multi-party democracy and the opposition parties do not have the required strength and vision to mainstream the Maoists. Democratic consolidation in Nepal now is a generational challenge, requiring a long-term process of locally embedded civil society development, party institutionalization, and the disarmament of insurgency groups.

Virtually nothing will be achieved at this point by blaming the Maoists for derailing the democratic process and looking for an external solution to the problem. Why would the Maoists strengthen a system in which they never had faith to begin with? The Maoists had it all figured out. They wanted to get rid of the old political structure and fill the vacuum, which they have succeeded in doing so. With their militia controlling rural areas, they knew very well that major political parties of yesteryears would not be able to stand their wrath for long. The Maoists’ calculation went awry when ethnic dissent sparked off. But they quickly figured out a way to deal with it. By accommodating Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Nepal Sadbhavana Party in the government, they have frozen the chances of large scale ethnic revolt that could potentially bring down their government. As far as small-scale ethnic dissent is concerned, they are ready to strike a deal even if such deals have the potential to hurt the nation in the future. Their past deals clearly show how well they have mastered the art of using “useful idiots.”

Their biggest hurdle for now is neutralizing the Nepali Army (NA) and overhauling the bureaucracy. They want to neutralize the army because it is the only institution in Nepal that can put a brake to the Maoists march towards establishment of one party rule. By neutralizing the army—the process has already begun with the formation of Army Integration Special Committee—they want to negate the possibility of a takeover by the army or an army-backed government. For the Maoists, overhauling the bureaucracy is equally important because the Maoists know it very well that the Nepali bureaucracy is not neutral. The Maoists will not hesitate to provide golden parachutes so that they can get rid of civil servants they don’t want. By doing so, the Maoists will not only substantially reduce the threat to their regime but also please donors and other external players that have been advocating for reforms in security sector and bureaucracy. Actually, it might be perceived as a step towards promoting good governance by the donors and the Maoist government might end up benefiting both diplomatically and financially.

The Maoists have never shied away from making known their desire to establish one-party rule in Nepal. The one-party rule they want to establish does not have to be like North Korea´s. They can live with the West Bengal-type model, where they can run the show without much of a threat from other political players. Probably, that is the easiest and safest route for the Maoists. All they have to do is continue what they have been doing so far—flush out the political cadres of major political parties from rural areas. That way they can guarantee the outcome of future elections and appear democratic to the external world at the same time. This formula was successfully experimented in Constituent Assembly elections and it worked out pretty well in favor of the Maoists. They might want to take this experiment to the urban areas now. But how difficult would that be when you have the covert support of security forces, and the bureaucracy is willing to do the needful?

While the Maoists are working hard to find a way within the country to consolidate their rule, the opposition parties appear clueless regarding how to preserve their political space. The leaders of the opposition parties once again want our southern neighbor to devise a survival formula for them.What the politicians of opposition parties fail to understand is, even if they come to the power and rule the country, which is only possible through NA´s backing, they will not be able to run the show for very long. They want to rule the country that no longer exists. Today’s Nepal is drastically different from the past. Nepal, as a nation, has gone too far left. First of all, even if India supports the opposition’s quest for power, removing the Maoists from power will not be as easy as removing Gyanendra Shah. The support that Pushpa Kamal Dahal has and the scale of violence that he can unleash is no match to the support and options that the former king had. So even if opposition parties bounce back with tacit support from India and the backing of NA, which in my view is completely unacceptable and undemocratic, they will not be able to rule for long. Dahal has way more support than what Gyanendra enjoyed during his rule. And, think about the cross-mobility of communists from the CPN-UML to the Maoist party. The recent college elections have clearly shown that the younger generation in Nepal is increasingly leaning towards the left. There is nothing to be cheerful about the poor showing of the Maoists in recent student union elections. Third place is good enough. It will not take very long for student leaders from the UML-affiliated student wing to migrate to the Maoist wing. They share the same ideology.

The options that the opposition parties in Nepal have at this point are very limited. For now, they should forget about scratching the backs of foreign leaders to garner support to bounce back to power. Such move is neither democratic, nor will it help them remain in power for long. The only way to keep the Maoists deviating away from democratic path is by keeping them engaged. It will take time, which Girija Prasad Koirala and other aged leaders unfortunately do not have on their side given their age and desire to establish their siblings in politics. We had an option to taste the success that Mahinda Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka is enjoying now, but we decided not to take that route and it is now too late to even think about it. Now, it is an ideological battle between the hardcore leftists and true democrats, if any. NA should not be dragged into this fight.

Let the people of Nepal themselves realize the difference between living in a liberal society and under hardcore leftists´ rule. A revolution that will occur then after will be the real revolution for democracy. It will be a long slog but would be worthier than the shortcut our southern neighbor devises for us. Not very long ago they devised a formula to establish democracy in Nepal and we all know how well it worked out. We are the ones who are now paying for their five-decade-long expertise in democratic consolidation. Do we really need another set of formulas from them again?