tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14900100453026537422024-03-08T16:19:17.537-05:00Blog for Inclusive Democracy in NepalDr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.comBlogger118125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-49347969945522707952013-12-23T17:54:00.002-05:002013-12-26T12:46:41.232-05:00Unearned victory<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Everyone is contemplating the factors that
carried the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML to an impressive victory in the
recent CA elections. The scale of the NC and UML’s victory has surprised not
only political pundits, but also NC and UML cadres. The victory came
despite the absence of fresh candidates and clear messages, and wavering
political commitment towards empowerment and emancipation of Madheshis and
ethnic minorities. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">The debate over whether people who voted
for NC and UML actually subscribe to their liberal ideals will continue to play
out over the months ahead. However, the most important question that everyone
should be asking is: what led to the withering of the symbolic emphasis that
voters placed on the need for radical change in the first CA elections? </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Long-standing socio-economic grievances,
disputes among ethnic political parties, and security dilemmas brought about by
weak and unaccountable system of governance are some factors that could have
led to a more pragmatic move towards the center, leaving the bourgeois Maoist
populists and ‘ethnic entrepreneurs’ that hijacked and subsequently maligned
the genuine need for ethnic empowerment and emancipation to fend for themselves.</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">The Maoists and ethnic parties failed
miserably to gauge public intelligence. Their attempt at defeating NC and UML
by stoking the same agendas—establishing an ethno-centric republic, building an
inclusive society, administering equality and justice, etc—failed. They
ignored the same issues when in power, grossly underestimating the public’s
intelligence. However, the loss of Maoists and ethnic parties which are
infested with ethnic entrepreneurs is by no means a death of the quest for
“total equality.” It will come back to haunt NC and UML if the ideas of social
justice and egalitarianism are not enshrined in the constitution. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Having witnessed the defeat of Maoist and
ethnic parties, people are now in the process of figuring out what a NC-led
coalition government means for Nepal’s peace and stability. Since the current
polity is one that the Maoists have defined, it will be extremely difficult if
not impossible, for NC and UML to deviate from the Maoist interpretation of
democracy. While the Maoist leaders have said that they will be “pragmatic and
cooperative,” it would be naive to imagine that this group will abandon its
basic ideology and play second fiddle to NC and UML. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">There simply is not enough evidence at this
point to believe that two Brahmins—Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai—who
failed to fulfill their political dreams under multiparty set-up and turned the
country into killing fields will consume NC and UML’s “liberal democratic” bait
hook, line and sinker! The second CA elections might have temporarily
transformed the political landscape whereby moderate democrats will now replace
radical ideologues and ethnic entrepreneurs, but it will not take very long for
Dahal and ethnic entrepreneurs to mount a comeback if the root causes of Maoist
insurgency and ethnic unrest are not adequately addressed.</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">The Maoists lost for a simple reason. Dahal
and know-it-all Bhattarai believed that political manipulation, belligerent
rhetoric and occasional violence were sufficient to endlessly sway public
consciousness. Their inability to transform from a guerilla outfit to an open,
viable political party that is capable of translating popular support into
effective policies was the main reason behind their electoral debacle. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">While the Maoists lost because of their
inability to actually transform, NC and UML won despite the absence of clear
vision on how they would actually solve burning socioeconomic problems, growing
insecurity, and wavering political commitment towards empowerment and
emancipation of Madheshis and ethnic minorities. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">More than anything else, the victory of NC
and UML is a result of incompetence on part of the Maoists and ethnic Madheshi
parties, and that is where the problem lies. When the opposition’s victory is
largely a result of an inability on part of the party in power to fulfill the
aspirations of the people, there is a great risk of screw-ups. You tend to
value things that you earn the hard way. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">If you look at the history of the people
who have won big lotteries, most of them waste their newfound wealth on women
and alcohol. Another classic example is of Nepali students and the diversity
visa lottery winners in the United States. Students outperform their fellow
citizens who have won the diversity visa lottery a large percentage. Students’
competitive edge comes from their conscious decision to be in the US and belief
that hard work can conquer all obstacles.</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">The early signs of an unearned victory are
already becoming visible. It’s been a month since the completion of CA
elections, and major parties are yet to give full shape to the new CA. NC’s
opposition to elections for President and Vice-President exposes its lack of
seriousness towards democratic institution building. Selective preference of
this nature will open the door for political perversions, which is the last
thing we want at this juncture. NC’s political immaturity is also quite clear
from the way it is engaged in appeasing the Maoists. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Yes, you want them to be on board, but not
through endless appeasement. The more you try to appease them, the more
inflexible they will get. They would try to drag the political process down to
a level so juvenile and debased that the infant democratic order could find
itself in a dump. It would not take much after that to convince voters to vote
them in. After all, if we look at our history, parties get back in power not
because of their vision, good governance, and service delivery, but because of
the incompetence and failure of those in power. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Nepali people have, once again, given NC
and UML a chance to prove their worth. It will become clear within a couple of
weeks whether NC and UML’s learning curve continues to be hampered because of
their self-inflicted mental block, or if these parties have actually learned
from their mistakes. One will not have to wait too long. All you got to do is
see the kind of people that will be nominated under proportional representation
and brought in as cabinet members.</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"> If Girija Prasad Koirala’s protégés
make a comeback, we can be pretty sure that the Maoists and ethnic
entrepreneurs will have the last laugh. All that they will then have to do is
keep riding the wave of people’s anger and wait for these drunken sailors to
push the country into another political and constitutional abyss, which they
are very much capable of doing. </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-87627020976587905412013-02-15T15:15:00.000-05:002013-02-15T15:18:24.710-05:00 Seize the opportunity <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It’s been more than eight months since the dissolution of the
Constituent Assembly (CA) that was supposed to promulgate a new
constitution. In all these months, there has been little debate, if any,
about the ways to tackle the actual issues such as whether the country
should be divided into federal states along ethnic lines, an issue which
caused the demise of the CA. Instead, politicians and talking heads
continue to nauseate innocent civilians, with their eternal appetite for
political nonsense, and their endless hypocritical posturing and
rhetoric. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Five years of republicanism should have been enough to repair any
damages to the nation and our collective psyche, or for that matter,
chart out a new course. We are where we are because the leaderships of
the major political parties have literally hijacked the deliberative
democracy and forced citizens to live in a climate of political
tribalism and loyalty oaths. A handful of politicians in major political
parties have been acting like tribal chiefs who benefit from a mix of
loyalties, earned respect, and well-wielded power. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Maoists are not going to change unless they are forced to. They have
been inconsistently consistent about their desire to capture the state,
which may not be possible in a literal sense at this day and age, but
it hardly matters. All they want is to remain in power for a long time.
Will they succeed? Depends upon whether or not the opposition, which is
intellectually exhausted and out of fresh ideas, is able to rebrand
itself. Two shrewd and highly ambitious Brahmins (Pushpa Kamal Dahal and
Baburam Bhattarai) who prompted innocent citizens to take up the gun to
fight against Indian hegemony, while they themselves were savoring
Indian cuisine in government-owned guest houses in India, can go to any
extent to remain politically relevant and in power. The sheer
regurgitation of the phrase “democracy in peril” by the likes of Krishna
Prasad Sitaula, Shekhar Koirala, and Ram Sharan Mahat that once
justified joining hands with the Maoists as the only way out to save the
democracy will not do the trick, when it comes to restoring people’s
faith and defeating the Maoists. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Aung San Suu Kyi (in Myanmar) and Nelson Mandela (in South Africa) have
proved that it is possible to bring an autocratic regime to its knees
without joining hands with radicals or waging an armed struggle. It
could be one of the two things. Either the likes of Sitaula under the
tutelage of Girija Prasad Koirala failed to realize Maoist intentions,
or figured out early on that given the party’s public approval, joining
hands with the Maoists was the shortest possible route to get back to
the corridors of power. The former makes them unintelligent, whereas the
latter exhibits their dishonesty towards the ideals they claim to be
fighting for. Either one is sufficient to render them unfit to lead
today’s Nepal, with growing population of youth that is smart, ambitious
and well-focused. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It is foolish on part of the NC and UML and other fringe parties to try
and defeat the Maoists and other opportunistic forces through street
protests and picketing. Instead of engaging in public nuisance, which
will be returned in kind, if and when the Maoists are ejected from
power, the opposition should agree to the best possible deal that they
can get. The idea of the chief justice as the head of the election
government is not that bad if you think about it logically. The current
state of political gridlock is the result of endless political
maneuvering so there is no point searching for a constitutionally
correct path to end the crisis. The sitting chief justice can be asked
to resign before he takes over to ensure neutrality of the judiciary.
The opposition can bargain for the kind of people they would like to
head the home and defense ministries if they suspect electoral fraud at
the hands of the Maoists. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Once you have a government that you can agree on, build a broader
democratic alliance, and bring the likes of Sashank Koirala and Gagan
Thapa to the forefront. The UML can do the same by promoting cadres like
Gokarna Bista and Yogesh Bhattarai. That way, even if you lose the
upcoming election, it will not be a whitewash. You will still have a
considerable political leverage that you can use to foil the Maoists
attempt to sideline the major political parties and subvert the
democratic process. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">On May 24, 2010, I had written an opinion piece suggesting that the
Constituent Assembly should be allowed to expire. Had we done that and
put contentious issues that derailed the CA on the ballot, we would most
probably have had a new constitution by now. Did endless harping on
consensus get us anywhere? The NC and UML which like to project
themselves as saviors of democracy, then, forgot the fact that in a
democracy, office holders are supposed to be responsive to the needs and
desires of their constituents. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The CA was extended without any debate whatsoever on the real issues,
which dwindled the chances of having a new constitution in the first
place. Pundits and talking heads bemoaned the lack of bipartisanship and
endlessly regurgitated the need for cooperation, when in reality, there
was no such possibility. Under the political obligations to please
their masters, they failed to acknowledge the fact that Nepali politics,
today, actually is beset with irreconcilable differences. What the
Maoists want at the end of the day is drastically different from what
NC, UML and other pro-parliamentary forces want. While the tools
utilized (read innocent people) are the same, the end-goal is
drastically different.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">What Nepal needs, now, is fresh election, for both the parliament and
local bodies, with contentious issues that led to the derailment of the
CA on the ballot. We can choose to have a hundred rounds of CA
elections, but unless we resolve the contentious issues, which is not
going happen without referendum, the chances of having a new
constitution are slim, if not nil. It is not that these issues cannot be
solved through sincere discussions, but there is no desire among
politicians to do so, as solutions will render many that have made
political careers decrying socioeconomic and political marginalization
jobless. Election is necessary not only to solve the existing mess but
also to infuse some fresh blood into political parties that have become
intellectually exhausted and have run out of fresh ideas. Do the right
thing before it is too late!
</span></span></div>
Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-71782248723400873382012-09-10T22:51:00.002-04:002012-09-10T22:51:08.250-04:00Stuck in a quagmire<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text">
Baburam Bhattarai’s promise for a “forward-looking” constitution
witnessed a tragic death with the demise of the Constituent Assembly.
His promise for good governance is running out of gas with his signature
populist “Hello Sarkar” programme turning into a black hole where
public grievances are sucked in and vanish. His failure to take action
against his Cabinet colleagues: Bhim Prasad Gautam and Mahendra for
irregularities reveal his advocacy and conviction towards good
governance. And what an absolute farce his promise for social justice
has turned out to be! People, whose property were seized by the
revolutionaries that he and his progressive colleagues trained to bring
about socioeconomic transformation, are still waiting for the transfer
of ownership. </span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">His claims that the bloody
insurgency he and his fellow comrades waged was needed to wipe out
nepotism and strengthen national sovereignty, too, have been proven
false. The recent appointment of Chirak Shova Tuladhar, Bhattarai’s
sister-in-law, as the Tribhuvan University’s dean of the Faculty of
Science reveals his conviction towards eradicating nepotism and
understanding his own ability to withstand external pressure. Given the
fact that the Promised Land is nowhere in the sight, perpetual optimists
who believed in Bhatarai’s honesty all along may want to ponder whether
Bhatarai’s surrender to violence to get where he is now was an act of
heroism or a shrewd political move to further his ambition. </span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">
Was Bhattarai bound to fail? Absolutely. His playbook to remain in
power is not very different from the one used by ideologues in the
former Soviet Union and the one that is being currently used in Cuba and
North Korea. Bhattarai believes in expanding the size and scope of the
government so that people have a false sense of security. He is least
concerned about the poor delivery of services. It may be hard for
well-informed citizens to understand why he does not realise the fact
that it is virtually impossible to run a welfare state when a big chunk
of your budget comes from foreign aid and the bureaucracy responsible
for running the welfare state is ill-trained and politically divided.
But here is what he is trying to achieve through his big government—a
platform that allows construction of counterfactual propositions and
arguments. Had I been given the required time and freedom to pursue all
my well-intentioned and thought-out plans, the country would have been
free from the shackles of poverty, dependency, and underdevelopment. The
country would be in a different league altogether, where bargaining for
equal bilateral treaties would be much easier. Can you see the
brilliance behind the ballooning of the size and scope of the
government? </span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">
While Bhattarai exhibits unmatched political shrewdness, the opposition
is utterly incompetent and delusional. The NC and UML leadership have
no agenda whatsoever than to shamelessly pursue the struggle for power.
The new boss of the NC, Sushil Koirala, has surrounded himself with a
herd of Girija Prasad Koirala protégés, who are not only dishonest and
corrupt, but also lack the imagination needed to outsmart the
establishment that very well understands and manipulates the
sensibilities of the general public. Koirala himself does not seem to
realise the fact that his own claims and actions are at odds. He claims
that the party stands for democracy but denounces the conviction of Khum
Bahadur Khadka, who is regarded as one of the most corrupt politicians
of the post-1990 era. It is quite understandable that seeing a protégé
of your mentor be convicted for corruption is painful, but the kid-glove
treatment to corruption and misrule eventually derails democracy. Your
claim as a saviour of democracy becomes indefensible the very minute you
try defending people convicted by the Supreme Court, whose approval
rating is way higher than your party. </span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">The NC leadership’s incompetence
becomes even more glaring, when leaders such as Sher Bahadur Deuba, come
out in support for the reinstatement of the expired CA. This shows the
lack of understanding of the importance of rule of law in democratic
consolidation, which Deuba claims to have worked for all his adult life.
Dishonesty runs even deeper. Leaders shamelessly flip-flop on their
position and records. Recently, a former finance minister in Girija
Prasak Koirala’s government after the Jana Andolan of 2006 that oversaw
the transfer of funds accused the Maoists of being involved in
corruption in the name of more than 6,000 “fake” Maoist combatants. It
is not the Maoists, but him, who should be blamed and held accountable
for the failure to carry out due diligence and plundering the state
coffer. This claim of corruption at this juncture sounds like a
well-calculated move to climb the ladder. With the former super stars of
the NC already behind bars or on their way to the big house, there’s
room for upward mobility. Who says Nepali politicians lack vision? </span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">
Political tribalism, incompetence, and dishonesty run deep within
political parties. Some argue that the Supreme Court derailed the
constitution-making process by forcing the politicians to adhere to a
deadline. But in reality, it was political tribalism at its best that
derailed the process, which was supposed to be participatory and
transparent. In order to further political ambitions, a handful of
leaders acted like tribal chiefs that benefit from a mix of loyalties,
earned respect, and well-wielded power. As a result, the democratic
deliberation process of constitution-making was turned into something so
hostile and filled with anger and rage that the CA members were doing
little more than screaming at each other. The country would not have
been better off on an endless journey of constitution-making. </span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="fltL news_details_text"><span class="fltL news_details_text">If Nepal is to get back on track and evolve as a modern society,
judicial activism alone is not enough. There is another institution,
which needs to follow the path taken by the judiciary, and that is the
media. Increased media scrutiny of politicians’ actions and the support
for rule of law is needed. Consensus is great, but in this day and age,
whereby a household cannot be run on consensus indefinitely, it is
useless to keep on harping on the idea. At present, representative
politics is completely disconnected from people, which has tremendously
increased the risk of a legitimacy crisis as well as a crisis of policy
implementation. Unless the media takes a greater responsibility and
forces politics to connect with people, which is not something that
bosses of major political parties are interested in, consolidation of
democracy is virtually impossible. As long as the current herd of
politicians have the opportunity and power to decide on contentious
issues, prospects of having a viable constitution will remain bleak. The media should push for a referendum under the leadership of a
neutral figure to settle contentious issues of the new statute. Let
people decide what they want. <br />
</span></span></span></span></h2>
<h2>
</h2>
Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-41938958439479766092011-11-22T14:45:00.002-05:002011-11-22T14:48:35.097-05:00BRB, BIPPA & BeyondBaburam Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has drawn mixed reactions. For foreigners without any stake in Nepal’s internal affairs, his Cinderella run from a battle-hardened radical ideologue to a democratically elected prime minister is a fascinating story. At home, the most cheerful is the middle class that has gotten utterly frustrated with the politicians who have been tirelessly fleecing from state coffers by extending their terms in office.<br /><br />The bar of expectation on government’s deliveries has sunk so low that even the raids on sweet shops bring cheer. One thing is for sure: Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has brought desperate optimism in the middle class. It is basically a reflection of the fact that people have been through a lot in the last one and half decade, and now look forward to better times. They desperately want to believe that, under Bhattarai’s rule, life will be good—they want it, they need it, and above all, they think they deserve it.<br /><br />Many seriously believe that he is the one who will dig us out of deep economic and insecurity hole we are in, even though in their hearts and minds, they know that desperate optimism cannot be the answer to our misery. The desperate optimists are pinning their hopes on populist rhetoric rather than reality. If you scrape away Bhattarai’s populist rhetoric, you will find a very different image of the man. First of all, he is one among many who raised arms against the inefficacies of the democratic system, which he himself is now manipulating to the core to remain in power. Remember how he justified the need for the largest cabinet in history by calling it coalition compulsion? And he is yet to confess he was naïve enough to believe and fight for establishing a radical communist state. Or was it a calculated strategy to carve a bigger political role for himself and his fellow comrades because the opportunity costs of doing so was extremely low? Don’t we, as a nation, deserve to know who he really is?<br /><br />Bhattarai, for sure, is a shrewd politician. No one in the domestic politics knows better than Bhattarai how to sway public opinion. In dirt poor nations basking in the glory of communist ideology like ours, people always love “relief packages”. Instead of coming up with measures that would ensure market competition in the private sector, which would automatically ensure the prices of goods and services, Bhattarai does what his Red Book heroes did and continue to do in Cuba and North Korea—dole-out relief packages without being responsible for balancing the books. Window dressing of the problems of very serious nature can only lead to the crumbling of the state foundation. Does Bhattarai remember how fiscal irresponsibility, among other things, bankrupted the former communist states which then crumbled under their own weight?<br /><br />Bhattarai knows very well that, in order for him to remain at the top of the ruling class, he will have to earn the trust of Madesis, middle-class Paharis and India. Dalits and ultra poor, whose sensibilities have been aroused to the maximum, are already with the Maoist party. Keeping the former happy is not a big deal. The ethnic entrepreneurs from the Tarai are only too happy to settle for plum ministerial berths instead of asking for large scale infrastructure and industrial investments that would create jobs and eventually uplift the state of downtrodden. Bhattarai has figured out that as long as they have an opportunity to buy gold, ethnic emancipation is going great guns. As far as the middle-class Paharis are concerned, small thing here and there, for example, raiding sweet shops and subsidizing liquid petroleum gas will keep them happy and content.<br /><br />In a country where politicians are increasingly perceived as scoundrels, window dressing with austerity measures like riding Mustang will continue to be appreciated. Who cares whether there are revenue streams to pay for the so-called progressive programs? It is all about revealing grand intentions rather than showing how these grand intentions will actually be translated into sustainable practical actions and paid for. They are never audited. Listening to people’s plight will make their heart lighter but getting their plight addressed is what people are more interested in. Has anybody, including the media, actually looked into how many of the grievances made through “Hello Sarkar” actually been addressed?If it was not for India’s heavy lifting to get the Tarai-based ethnic parties back together, Bhattarai would not have become the prime minister, at least not now. For India, Bhattarai was the logical choice amongst the Maoists because of his unflinching willingness to tack their line. Plus, by promoting Bhattarai the Indian establishment seriously believes that the internal struggle within the Maoist party will reach a peak and cause a vertical split. For India, the Maoist party is too big and too unpredictable to handle and Bhattarai is their last best bet.<br /><br />Through BIPPA, Bhattarai has scored brownie points with the biggest force that he needs on his side to remain in power and politically relevant in Nepal. On principle, there is nothing wrong in signing BIPPA. Without investment guarantee, none would like to invest in a country where brainwashed hotheads can randomly shut down operations of any industry. But in reality who are these people that are threat to investments in Nepal? They are none other than people who Bhattarai and the likes got into believing that foreign investment is actually a threat to native investment and indigenous entrepreneurship. It is altogether a different thing that these hotheads have gotten sophisticated in extorting money using ideology as a cover. Instead of tightening the grip on the people he himself once trained, Bhattarai has rather decided to pay to Indian investors from state’s coffer. Can anyone think of a better way of shifting the cost and avoiding intra-party backlash? See the brilliance!Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-9267196057608274212011-01-17T09:32:00.001-05:002011-01-17T09:34:02.289-05:00Address ethnic grievancesNepal´s politics is famous for ugly feuds for power and vertical splits. Virtually every political party suffers from factionalism. While the larger parties like Nepali Congress (NC), the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML), and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) are barely holding on, the Madhes-based parties are withering faster than anybody could have imagined a while ago.<br /><br />One of the reasons why the factions within the larger parties do not dare to walk out from the parent party may have to do with already divided political space and political apathy that is out there. But when it comes to the Madhes-based parties, which either ballooned (read Madhesi Janadhikar forum) or was created (read Tarai Madhesh Democratic Party) to benefit from rising ethnic sentiments, there is nothing that glues politicians that deserted their previous party to join or form the Tarai based parties. In the case of major political parties like the NC, UML, UCPN (Maoist), ideology binds people together, albeit loosely. In the case of the Tarai-based parties, it is increasingly becoming clear that they flocking together was purely because of the perceived political opportunity.<br /><br />The ongoing disintegration of the Tarai-based parties is more dangerous than many think. It would be quite naive to expect that ethnic uprising, which the nation witnessed in 2006 as a result of high level of marginalization in the society, will not take place again. As a matter of fact, with the seed of ethnic hatred already sown, half of the work toward instigating ethnic violence is already done. There is no reason to believe otherwise that the opportunists that deserted parties that they belonged to before the Tarai uprising to join or form the Tarai-based parties and who have now been walking away from them, will not further stoke ethnic divisions to mobilize support and use that support for instigating violence. Violent ethnic conflicts always serve ethnic-entrepreneurs. Muslim identities in Bosnia after Bosnian civil war became much stronger than they used to be.<br /><br />Governments’ apathy towards creating equal opportunity has provided a space for ethnic-entrepreneurs to benefit from ethnic grievances. Fearon and Laitin (2011) looked at 139 civil wars during 1945–2008. They found 79, or 57 percent to be “ethnic” and another 24 or 17 percent to be mixed or what they call ambiguously “ethnic.” What is even more disturbing is that while 53 percent of the 17 civil wars breaking out in the years 1945–49 were ethnic, for the next six decades, the corresponding percentages are 74, 71, 67, 81, 83, and 100 (for 2000–08). These ethnic wars happened not just only because that the governments were insensitive but also because many saw an opportunity to benefit from ethnic violence.<br /><br />Ethnic violence is more likely in the districts, where ethnic-entrepreneurs succeed in establishing their base. As followers gain access to local institutions through patronage networks that derive electoral gains from communal violence, the propensity of violence will further increase. Belonging to smaller political outfits will not bother them. In a country, where the majority government is unthinkable given the expansion of political representation in the name of inclusion, who needs a bigger party? Small is beautiful and profitable. The likes of Rajendra Mahato can vouch on that.<br /><br />The real problem in Nepal is that while people belonging to marginalized ethnic groups want equality, those representing them want the marginalization to persist, as they are politically and personally benefiting from it. Hence, the real challenge is to defeat the agenda of the ethnic-entrepreneurs and foster a cohesive subnational community that can on its own generate progressive social policy capable of fostering equality among the citizens.<br /><br />Even though the ethnic quest for equality is losing its luster because of the wrong people taking up of a very worthy agenda, it is moral responsibility of the ruling elites to work towards making citizens equal. The best place to start would be to introduce a policy that would reduce ethnic income gaps. Income gaps between ethnic groups stoke ethnic divisions. Such a policy was introduced in Malaysia after the race riots of 1969, which has on the whole worked well so far. <br /><br />The government needs to act swiftly and introduce policies aimed at uplifting the status of ethnic minorities, or else with continued disintegration of regional parties, there will soon be too many ethnic-entrepreneurs resorting to violent means to achieve their political ambitions. In a country where the person that initiated a bloody conflict, which killed more than fourteen thousand people and displaced thousands can become a prime minister, is there really a reason for some ethnic zealot with political ambition to refrain from instigating violenceDr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-72808812690371795952011-01-03T10:53:00.002-05:002011-01-03T10:59:57.480-05:00Will 2011 be any different?With the end of a year also comes punditry from the usual suspects that people are often forced to consume. Getting predictions from them, who told us that the Maoists were for multi-party democracy and that the extension of Constituent Assembly (CA) would definitely fetch us a new constitution, is a bit obnoxious but that is the price we all have to pay for being citizens of an unaccountable nation. The one good thing about 2011’s predictions though is that pundits have been a lot more conservative. It is better to come across as an unintelligent person rather than to be proved wrong. Smart move, indeed!<br /><br />In the absence of reliable predictions, most people are anxious to know what really is in store for the nation this year. But before moving to that, let us look at how 2010 was for certain groups of people. For Madhav Kumar Nepal and his cabinet members, the year could not have been any better. Likewise, for the 601 CA members, who were all for the extension of CA to continue their hard work (pun intended), 2010 was not a bad year either. Land sharks and ethnic entrepreneurs, too, did well for themselves in the past year. Rising land prices and degrading law and order situation provided them with an unthinkable opportunity to fleece both the state and innocent public. Politicians, land sharks, and ethnic entrepreneurs were clearly the winners of 2010 and will continue to remain so unless the existing structure is altered.<br /><br />For many of the 601 CA members, the year 2010 might have been the luckiest year of their life. Why would they want 2011 to be any different? It is only the general public with fixed incomes and struggling due to rising inflation, rampant corruption and chronic power shortage who want the coming year to be different.<br /><br />What about the media? Instead of reporting how the helpless Nepali citizens confronting a dysfunctional state felt about the past year and what their expectations are in the new year, the mainstream media did what it does best—fill the newspapers with predictions. Would not Nepal be better off if our journalists and pundits stopped predicting political events and politicians’ behavior and spent quality time analyzing why Nepali politicians behave the way they do and what we can actually do to correct their reckless behavior? <br /><br />Politicians will not do anything different than what they did in 2010 unless the media and the general public exert pressure on them. Except for the peace assembly that forced the Maoists to end the blockade of the valley, public has been absorbing nonsense, nonstop. The more we put up with that, the more we will get it. The choice is ours. Instead of holding politicians accountable for false claims, the media often ends up regurgitating what politicians claim to be possible. If my memory serves me well, not a single newspaper analyzed the option of holding fresh election when the term of the CA was expiring last May. Instead of looking at the factors that caused inaction in the CA and sincerely analyzing whether or not it was actually possible to have a new constitution from the same set of actors, who appeared more interested in forwarding their own agendas through an extension, the mainstream media joined the political chorus. The prospects of democratic consolidation gets bleak when the media, instead of holding politicians accountable for inaction, helps them get rewarded for it.<br /><br />Given the situation that the major political parties are in and the limited choice that India has at its disposal, the political stagnation that we witnessed in 2010 will continue to persist, at least till May 28th of 2011. The status-quo is not that bad for politicians as it does not stop the cabinet and 601 CA members from drawing their salaries. Neither does it affect local-level party cadres who are becoming amazingly astute and savvy in dividing commissions among themselves. It is the general public that wants a positive change. For almost half of the population that live on less than $2 a day, living in the most corrupt country in South Asia also means cutting down on basic needs. People have started taking extreme measures as the state is getting increasingly dysfunctional. Families are ending their lives for not being able to foot medical bills.<br /><br />Citizens can make 2011 better than 2010 if they really want to. It is not going to happen on its own. For that to happen, people will have to do what they did to end the Maoists’ blockade of the valley last year. Unless people exert pressure on politicians and make it clear that nonsense in the name of democracy is unacceptable, there is very little chance that anything positive will happen in 2011. Pundits can, for sure, help people make 2011 better. As political winners and losers have already been picked, how about analyzing ways in which we can make winners act more responsibly and losers play by the rules of the game. Is that too much to ask for?Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-72276585363684972912010-12-20T08:25:00.001-05:002010-12-20T08:27:53.848-05:00Fight power outageRecently, one of my friend’s younger brothers told me that he is working on finding an employment in Dubai through a manpower agent. I initially laughed it off as a joke as I thought the guy who was doing pretty well for himself running a computer training institute would not leave the country to do some odd job in the Gulf.<br /><br />Besides, he was supposed to get married in a couple of days. But, as we chatted along, it became quite clear that he was quite serious about his decision to leave the country. I could not understand why someone who had decided to stay put while most of us left the hometown long ago wanted to leave all of a sudden.<br /><br />Well, crippling power supply may be a mere inconvenience for well-to-do in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country for which many have found solution in inverter and generator but for people like my friend’s brother, it is having a devastating impact on livelihood. <br /><br />Many politicians, pundits, and bureaucrats have done well for themselves selling the dreams of changing the fate of the nation through hydro dollars. Does promise of transforming Nepal into Switzerland ring a bell? It’s been 20 years since we adopted free-market economy, and in all these years, what dream merchants have done is push the nation further into perpetual darkness. Isn’t 20 years a good time for us to see some positive results? Forget about benefiting from water resources financially, shouldn’t we be at least self-sufficient to meet our own energy needs by now?<br /><br />The chances of benefiting from selling energy appear bleak. India, which is the primary and the biggest market for Nepal’s energy has already started building nuclear power plants. During the recent visit to India, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has agreed to build two European pressurized reactors of 1,650 megawatts each worth $9.3 billion. It appears that by the time we will be actually able to break the close nexus between hydro-mafia, politicians, and bureaucrats, which does not appear like it will happen anytime soon given the dysfunctional state of the country, and unleash our hydropower potential, India will be nuclear-powered. Even if it needed energy, it will be in a better position to bargain for cheaper price. By then, the so-called jingoists that are now opposing hydropower contracts to Indian companies will have been long gone. But by letting these jingoists have their way, we will have compromised the prospects of future generations benefiting from the economic gains made now through hydropower generation and energy sales. <br /><br />While the hydro-mafia, politicians in power, bureaucrats, and jingoists stall the progress of the hydropower sector’s development in the country, lack of electricity, which could have been subsidized for poor from the energy sales to the neighboring countries, has hurt lower middle class and poor the most. If we look at the consequences of the energy poverty at the public level, it becomes evident that the lack of electricity is a main problem for poor health and educational outcomes. One of the main problems caused by energy poverty is indoor pollution.<br /><br />Hundreds of thousands of girls and women of these households that are responsible for cooking suffer from respiratory problems that are caused by an inefficient biomass system used for cooking. Girls and women of a nation, which is only next to Brazil in water resources, certainly deserve a better deal. If these households have the access to subsidized energy, girls and women can use the time they save from collecting biomass fuel used for cooking for studies. The existing gender disparity in educational outcomes would bridge over time. Without a reliable access to electricity, health centers are often forced to treat patients in the dark and to rely on biomass and fuel generator to keep vaccines and medicines usable. For the rich, lack of regular supply of electricity might be a nuisance, but for the poor, to whom remaining healthy and getting decent education is the only way out of poverty, it is one of the major barriers. <br /><br />In a country, where the government is unable to create jobs for its growing population, lack of secure energy access is limiting the opportunities of growth of the private sector and increasing their costs. For radicals that want to turn the nation into a welfare state, bleeding of the private sector is good news. As the private sector – the only hope for creating jobs for a growing population – fails, there will be more hotheads to recruit. Deep down, radicals and “ethnic-entrepreneurs” do not want the private sector to flourish because they very well know that robust private sector is an engine of growth.<br /><br />Take India as an example where free market and strong private sector is changing the lives of Dalits, who happen to be at the rock bottom of the pyramid. A study led by Devesh Kapur at Pennsylvania University´s Centre for the Advanced Study of India, which quizzed Dalit households – more than 19,000 – in two clusters of villages in Azamgarh and Bulandshahar, two poor, backward districts in Uttar Pradesh state, clearly show that free market and strong private sector is benefiting Dalits. When asked to compare their material and social conditions now and in 1990 when economic reforms just started in India, Dalits have overwhelmingly reported substantial gain in material status as well as changes in a wide variety of social practices affecting Dalit well-being. Access to capital assets was found to have increased, consumption had become better, and relationship between the Dalits and other castes is undergoing subtle, but substantial changes.<br /><br />In our case, why would the jingoists and ethnic entrepreneurs that are benefiting politically from the backwardness of Dalits and other ethnic groups care about the hemorrhaging in the private sector? While the jingoists and ethnic-entrepreneurs do not have interest in promoting the sector, the ones that credit themselves of introducing free-market economy in the country have personal interests that they think needs to be fulfilled along with the development of the sector. They are yet to realize what one-and-half decade of chasing personal gains has done to the party’s standing and their personal image. May be, they don’t care about it, as most of their siblings are settled abroad and do not intend to intend to join politics like the children of Indian politicians do. So, why invest in political capital building? Makes perfect sense!<br /><br />One of the reasons why a selected few have been able to squander Nepal’s hydropower potential is because we let them. Power outage is forced upon citizens of one of the earth’s most water resources-rich nation because we as a nation accept it. People tend to accept unfavorable conditions more readily and this is precisely what greedy opportunists need in order to line their own pockets with the wealth that is supposed to benefit the people. We remain cheated because we are not protective of our fundamental human rights and realize that we deserve the best that life can offer.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-36071181030615587992010-12-06T18:56:00.000-05:002010-12-06T18:58:15.015-05:00Mainstreaming the Maoists<p>Six months have already passed since the extension of the term of the constituent assembly (CA) and there has been very insignificant, if any, progress made in terms of drafting the new constitution. It is almost certain that the constitution will not be drafted even within the extended period. The new constitution will not be drafted for a very simple reason, and the reason is that there is no consensus among the major political parties of the ruling coalition and the Maoist party on major issues such as pluralism, federal, and economic development model to name a few. </p><p> The ongoing contention over these issues is crucial, because the course of Nepali politics and fate of the politicians on either side of the divide will largely depend upon the kind of society we choose to be and the kind of economic model we embrace. For survival, the coalition members need a pluralistic society with an economic policy that equally promotes the development of all three sectors: Public, private, and cooperative.</p><p> On contrary, for the Maoists to thrive, regimented society with a state-led economy is a must. In many ways, the fight over the type of constitution each side wants is an existential battle that each side cannot afford to lose. And, that is where the problem lies. Unless there is a complete defeat or surrender of either side, Nepal is not going to have a new constitution, period! Even if it ended up having a new constitution, the chances of which are extremely slim, it will not be a long-lasting document. The status quo, however, is not only unsustainable but also dangerous. Existing unstable situation will further be aggravated by competitive populism, a dangerous permissiveness that tolerates criminalization of our polity and society and serious erosion of the legitimacy of the state. But breaking free from the status quo is not as simple as we would like it to be. The dysfunctional nature of the legislature and the state has its roots in the nature of our electoral process. The decision to run the circus of 601 people in the name of inclusion is where the problem started.</p><p> In a country, where political course of the country is shaped by not more than a dozen politicians, ushering inclusion was not that difficult. Unnecessary ballooning of the legislature has led to both reduced focus and effectiveness of the legislature and the government. What a poor country like Nepal needs is a smart and effective legislature and government that can introduce and implement policies and programs that are pro-people. Just to showcase inclusiveness, we have ended up creating a “loya jirga” (grand assembly) like institution that we see in tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In our case, it is even worse. The chiefs, unlike in Afghanistan and Pakistan, do not bother to show up in the “grand assembly” to solve contentious issues but direct followers to stall the progress.</p><p> The politicians belonging to the coalition prefer status quo because being in power helps them maximize their personal gain and minimize personal pain, even though the society at large loses, and is increasingly getting debilitated. The current coalition is an example of dangerously stable equilibrium. By not making any sincere effort toward promoting good governance, the current coalition is actually doing a disservice to its cause and is in a self-destructive mode. In the absence of good governance, the propertied and educated middle and upper classes that have great stakes in democracy, peace, and order will increasingly get disenchanted with the governance process and come to the dangerous conclusion that freedom and democracy are synonymous with chaos and anarchy.</p><p> At some point in time down the road, if the status quo continues, the support for authoritarianism that can bring order and peace to the society at any cost will swell, so that they can pursue their economic dreams. If and when that happens, all the bargains and backdoor dealings that have been going on to keep the current government in place will be worthless. In other words, the political parties that are supporting the current government, whose leader is more interested in jetting the globe rather than making a serious effort to solve the nation’s problems, are basically caught between the devil and the deep sea. The smartest way to come out of the current situation, which is self-defeating, is finding a right candidate that can effectively deal with the radical left and govern the nation at the same time.</p><p> The mainstreaming of the Maoist party is getting increasingly difficult not because they cannot be mainstreamed but because the path that the ruling coalition has embarked on is dead wrong. The Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and the Tarai based parties that have well adapted to Bihari-styled politics must take cues from the victory of Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister of Bihar. By veering away from caste-based politics and making good governance his main agenda, Mr Kumar has virtually wiped out all his political competitors.</p><p> The only way to mainstream the Maoists is by defeating their agenda through good governance. Instead of trying to sell socialist rhetoric, NC, UML, and other major parties should focus on promoting good governance. The larger political problem for the Maoists and the fly in the ointment to their "socialist" mantra is that more and more Nepalis are today looking to government to help with the socioeconomic and law and order challenges facing the country. If the government can solve some of these problems, the Maoist party’s base will automatically deflate. Nothing can be dumber than competing with the Maoists in selling “progressive” dreams. We all know what happened in the last CA election, don’t we?</p>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-67628722859210163462010-11-22T16:06:00.000-05:002010-11-22T16:08:23.305-05:00Time for course correctionChickens of “consensus” politics have come home to roost. The manhandling of Finance Minister Surendra Pandey by the Maoist members of parliament is a preview of what the future holds for the politicians of the current coalition, who once endlessly harped on the need for consensus, if the outcomes of the political bargain do not go the Maoists’ way. The footage of the ultra-progressives (read the Maoists) manhandling the less-progressive (the minister from the less-progressive CPN-UML) is just a mouse-click away for the world to see. The timing could not have gotten any better. Pandey got roughed up at a time when the never-ending rounds of elections for the post of prime minister was providing the world a glimpse of how exactly a dysfunctional political system looks like.<br /><br />As usual, each side is blaming the other for the incident. Anything new in that? Not really. The blame-game has been going on for a while now. Instead of trying to figure out who is at fault, it would be helpful if we spent our time and energy trying to understand why something as serious as this happened inside the parliament. It happened for a simple reason. And the reason is that as a nation, we allow politicians to run the country by cutting deals in the name of consensus. Nobody except the dealmakers actually know the terms and conditions of the deals. So, it is very easy for them to lie about them later. What makes this deal-based process even more complicated is that, for these dealmakers, pleasing their masters (Chinese for the Maoists and Indians for the current coalition members) is much more important and lies at the heart of anything they do or agree to than serving the nation’s interest and fulfilling people’s expectations.<br /><br />Blaming the Maoists for insincerity at this point in time is completely absurd and unintelligent. The Maoists have been inconsistently consistent throughout about their motive behind joining the hands with the political parties. They wanted to use the opportunity to achieve their goal of establishing the dictatorship of the proletariat. The rationalization of the Maoists’ intent to come overground came from the very politicians that now grouch about the Maoist motives, pundits who change their color faster than chameleons to remain politically-relevant and human right activists that are now nowhere to be seen when a people’s representative is manhandled in broad light inside the parliament. Hence, the wound that politicians of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML complain about is self-inflicted. The sooner they learn to live with it, the better off they will be.<br /><br />The Maoists are now one of the dominant players of Nepali politics and there is logic to what they do. Every move of theirs is well-calculated and is meant to serve their political agenda. With India against their quest for power, the Maoists have no choice but to tilt the domestic political balance by coercing their political opponents. They want the opponents to be perceived as feeble and power-hungry who will eventually succumb to their bullying tactics. And there is precedence to what they believe in. On the other side, there is no political preparation to tackle the Maoists. All they have is the same old slogan of how big a threat the Maoists are for democracy, which gives them an opportunity to cash in on India’s soured relationship with the Maoists, both of which will not take the coalition very far.<br /><br />Putting the blame on the Maoists will not serve any purpose when it comes to correcting the course that they are in. The NC and the UML should prove to the people, which they have not done so far, that they can effectively govern the nation and meet people’s expectations. The state’s reach has been shrinking with each passing day. Regurgitation of the same old stale slogan of democracy being in danger from the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula, who not very long ago used every argument that they could think of to justify how bringing the Maoists overground was good for democracy, makes the case that the coalition is trying to make against the Maoists look malicious and empty. <br /><br />The ongoing small-scale confrontation between the major partners of the coalition and the Maoists will get bigger and more frequent in the days to come. This is just the beginning. The NC, with its new president, can be a game changer if it dares to get away from the influence of the likes of Sitaula that failed miserably to correctly assess the Maoists’ motives. It is time to play the game with the Maoists the way they do. Backdoor dealings with them should be completely stopped. Things as important as budget should be made public with or without the Maoist support. If they oppose, they are the ones that will be seen as obstructionist, and if they get physical, they should end up behind bars. Appeasing the Maoists so far has not gotten the nation anywhere, has it? It is high time that they be held accountable for their acts.<br /><br />The moving of the political process forward should be done smartly. Staying put in a futile prime ministerial election process makes the NC look like a club of politically-immature jokers. Its obsession with the prime ministership is pushing Jhala Nath Khanal and his fellow comrades closer to Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Helping the UML retain its political base is as important as maintaining its own political space for the NC. The UML’s loss is the Maoists party´s gain. Hence, letting Khanal become the prime minister is politically more profitable for the NC than alienating him by endlessly bidding for Ram Chandra Poudel. Even if Poudel became the prime minister, there will absolutely nothing in this lame duck environment for him to achieve that will change the NC’s face and fate. So, why remain obsessed? Cut your losses by not appearing insensitive to Khanal’s desperation to become the prime minister.<br /><br />Banking on India’s support and regurgitation of democracy-in-peril rhetoric may work for a while and help the coalition stay put in power for some time, but with China’s support, the Maoist party is hell-bent on tipping the balance. If and when the balance tips, India will have no choice but to reengage with the Maoists. Aung San Suu Kyi received Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding in 1993 from the Indian government, but when the Indian government later on realized that the Burmese junta was not going to release Suu Kyi anytime soon, it started reengaging with the junta that put her under house arrest. Than Swe’s recent gala reception in India and the endless case made by India’s foreign policy experts, including Shyam Saran, about the necessity of becoming pragmatic when it came to dealing with Myanmar’s junta is an example of how far the Indian pendulum can swing with change in domestic political situation. Endless complaints about the Maoists’ anti-democratic acts have not made them change their ways, so it is time you change your ways and do things differently Mr Sushil Koirala. By opting for that, you would be doing a huge both to your party as well as the nation.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-4037434345371560852010-10-25T10:27:00.000-04:002010-10-25T10:29:45.582-04:00Sacrificing animals<p>Every year, around Dashain, festival writings and ranting against animal sacrifice get a lot of coverage in media. From little known animal rights activist groups to amateur writers, many jump into anti-sacrifice bandwagon. As Dashain gets over, the noise dies down, gradually. It is really difficult to understand the real motives behind the dissent. Are these groups or individuals really passionate about animal rights or sponsored by external forces that aim to benefit from the portrayal of Hindu religion and culture in bad light or is it coming from anarchists that see progressiveness as everything that is against established norms and rules? Are these people really vegetarian that value life of other beings as their own or opportunists trying to seek some limelight as and when they can? In a country, where dreams are sold (remember “New Nepal” hoopla?) freely without any fear of being held accountable, being cynical at times is perfectly normal, isn’t it? </p><p>Animal sacrifice is nothing new. It has been happening for centuries and in all the ancient religions of the world. The ritual of animal sacrifice is seen as a means of getting closer to the almighty. From the Hebrews to the Greeks and Romans and from the Aztecs to the Hindus, ritual killing of an animal has been part of a religion. Moral purists, atheists, opportunists, and limelight seekers question whether ritual killing of animals is right just because it has been practiced for generations? Do they have a point? Absolutely. But are they missing a larger picture? You bet!</p><p>What they conveniently forget is the objective behind the religious sacrifice. People sacrificing animals are not religious nuts. The objective of sacrifice is to express gratitude to the almighty. They truly and selflessly believe that by offering our life symbolically to the almighty by offering the sacrifice of an animal, they are in fact expressing their gratitude. Are they right? May be, may be not, but again, who are we to question someone else’s belief system? If their belief affords them comfort, they have all the right and freedom to believe in whatever they want to believe in. Besides, it is their constitutional right to practice their religion.</p><p>Sacrificing an animal as long as such animal is not endangered and protected by law would be the same as killing a chicken for McDonalds. As far as the method of killing is concerned, what is torture and what is not is again subjective. Some may believe gulping meat while advocating for animal rights to be more primitive, double standard, and culturally damaging than animal sacrifice practice itself. Are they wrong? Depends upon how you see it. Everyone has a different starting point, a different personality and differing degrees of faith. When it comes to beliefs, debating helps but it will eventually reach the "nihilist threshold." People have beliefs that they simply hold to be true for no other reason than trusting them to be right.</p><p>Those that make a hue and cry about animal sacrifice in Nepal somehow try to associate animal rights with killings only. Animal rights is not all about how you kill them. Animals like humans do have rights to live in a free environment. Millions of goats that were sacrificed during the recent Dashain must have enjoyed a better life and a less ignominious death than veal calves, geese, and battery hens that that are kept in cages that are little more than the size of a sheet of A4 paper in Western farms. Animal rights are violated everywhere, irrespective of developmental status.</p><p>Advocacy has become a lucrative profession in Nepal. The so-called human rights activists that demeaned the state’s right to defend itself against those that initiated violent bloody insurgency have now pigeon-holed themselves. They do not raise voice against the marauding raids of the Maoists, ethnic hustlers, and criminal gangs that have violated the rights of millions of Nepalis to live freely and pursue their dreams. Rights activist in Nepal have tremendously benefited at the cost of the liquidation of the state.</p><p>Populism doesn’t bring real change. For real and long lasting change to happen, there has to be a social and economic basis for it. It is important to understand that still approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line and is illiterate. The state, for them, is virtually non-existent. If they had faith in the state, Pushpa Kamal Dahal would not have had recruits to fight against the state, opportunity to parachute to the parliament, and get away even when he crawls to Kamal Thapa’s residence for votes to become the prime minister. Isn’t change, for which, approximately 14,000 people lost their lives and hundreds of thousands got uprooted visible? Nobody seems to be questioning if the promise for change was worth the sacrifice? The never-ending claims from both the extreme left and the right is nothing but the politics of grievances. But we rather take easy way out and question if the sacrifice of animals is worth it?</p><p>Animal sacrifice is not a good practice but it is not happening in vacuum. Belief system drives it. Bemoaning it is of little help and stopping it altogether is outright dangerous. When the state fails, religion and faith help. Already there is enough of bloodshed and anarchy in the country and taking off the religious and cultural lid altogether will make things even worse. Change should be gradual and calibrated, only then it is long-lasting. Indicator-less quest for change will be something like that of the current peace process. Nobody knows where it is going except for the United Nations Mission in Nepal. First of all, economic and social basis for change needs to be established. With education, prosperity, and economic development, people may be more willing to explore other ways to please gods and celebrate religious ceremonies. Till then, energy should be spent towards nation-building, not withering the glue that holds it together.</p>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-59511178185878333632010-10-11T18:22:00.001-04:002010-10-11T18:24:14.861-04:00Two cheers for Nobel laureates<p>Every year, six Nobel prizes are awarded for outstanding contributions in the field of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, economics and peace. Except for a few controversies, for the most part, Nobel committees have done an excellent job in awarding deserving candidates. The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to the current United States President Barack Obama, and past US president and vice-president Jimmy Carter and Al Gore respectively drew some flak and prompted accusations of a left-wing bias. But when it comes to controversy, the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho for negotiating a ceasefire between North Vietnam and the United States in January 1973 is so far the most controversial one.</p><p> The Norwegian Nobel Committees deserve criticism to a certain degree for overlooking the contributions of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi of India, Václav Havel of Czech Republic, Ken Saro-Wiwa of Nigeria, Corazon Aquino of Philipinnes, Jose Figueres Ferrer of Costa Rica, Feng Shan Ho of China, Steve Biko of South Africa while jointly selecting Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994 for their so-called efforts in making peace between Israel and Palestine. Peace between Palestine and Israel? It is as elusive as it can get.</p><p>Except for the prizes in economics, peace, and literature, often, common people cannot relate with things that recipients are awarded the prize for. Contributions in chemistry, physics, and physiology or medicine are often hard for people without sufficient background in these subjects to comprehend. But this year, it is different. There have been pleasant surprises for many armchair Nobel enthusiasts, like myself. The committees, this year, have taken some bold selection decisions, which is sure to enhance the reputation of the Nobel Prize. By deciding to award the Literature Prize to Mario Vargas Llosa of Peru, the Swedish Academy that grants the Nobel Prize in Literature has shown that it is ready to shed its eurocentric image. The Swedish Academy that grants the Nobel Prize in Literature is often accused of eurocentrism.</p><p>The list cannot get any better. Among the 2010 Nobel Prize winners, if I were to pick the two most deserving winners, it would be Robert G Edwards for medicine and Liu Xiaobo for peace. It is not to suggest that other winners’ contribution is less important by any means. But the works of Edwards and Xiaobo have greater significance and far-reaching consequences. By spearheading Invitro Fertilization (IVF) creation, Professor Edwards have given a ray of hope to millions of infertile and sub-fertile couples that hope to have biological children of their own. Professor Edwards is the technological father of 4 million people that have been born through IVF procedure so far. They would not be here if it was not for Edwards’ breakthroughs.</p><p>In traditional patriarchal society like ours, where women’s status within the household and society is to a large extent attached to her ability to give birth to a child, Edwards’ work is even more relevant. It is not always a woman’s fault if she cannot give birth to a child. Male infertility, which is a reason for almost 50 percent cases of infertility, does not cross peoples’ mind when they see or meet childless couples. Women are the silent victims of male infertility and the state has done very little to address this problem. Professor Edwards’ work has and will help millions of women secure their status within the household and society. With the help of assisted reproductive technology, infertile and sub-fertile couples now have biological child of their own. His work has been crucial for human embryonic stem cell research, as the cells are obtained from embryos left over at infertility clinics. Millions of people suffering from dreadful diseases like Parkinson´s, Alzheimer´s and Lou Gehrig´s are pinning their hope on success of embryonic stem cell research.</p><p>Some ethicists from the Catholic Church have questioned the correctness of awarding Nobel Prize to Professor Edwards, whom they think essentially started “playing god.” But in their lopsided moral interpretations of Professor Edwards’ achievement, what they conveniently dodge is the joy and happiness that Edwards’ work brings to the life of sick and poor, toward whom they claim to have moral responsibility. The Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet, which awards the candidates for Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, by selecting Professor Edwards, has sent a strong message that the religious righteousness of some cannot hold scientific progress hostage. Professor Edwards’ selection is the victory against those that protect degenerate priests who prey on the sexual innocence of children but hound upon individual’s right to bear children.</p><p>If the award to Professor Edwards’ is a slap on the wrist of the so-called religious purists, jailed Chinese human rights and democracy campaigner Liu Xiaobo’s selection is an answer to the existential question of what good human rights and democracy campaigners’ sacrifice have done? Xiaobo’s selection has recognized the sacrifice of human rights and democracy campaigners across the globe. Unlike our own radicals that pursued murderous path to what they claim was for establishing civilian supremacy, Xiaobo’s struggle is for peaceful political change and an era of expanded freedom and rights. Recognition of Xiaobo’s peaceful democratic struggle is a real tribute to the unsung heroes muzzled during the 1989 pro-democracy demonstration at Tiananmen Square and beyond.</p><p>There is also a subtle message for our own radicals that seek financial favors from their Chinese counterparts to get to power and use Chinese model to curtail our democratic rights. It might take time but the overthrow of an autocratic ideology or regime is imminent</p>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-61939323428410062532010-09-27T11:06:00.001-04:002010-09-27T11:19:03.241-04:00Reinventing Nepali Congress<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>ZH-TW</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> 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10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">The 12th General Convention of the Nepali Congress (NC) can be regarded as a giant leap toward intra-party democracy, which, as a matter of fact, was long overdue. By reserving seats for women, Dalits, Madhesis, and indigenous people in the central committee, the NC has taken a stride toward reforming its image as a party dominated by pahadi Brahmins and Chettris. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">It would be unfair to say that the groups that now have the privilege to represent themselves because of the policy of reservation were completely overlooked in the past. Ram Baran Yadav, Mahantha Thakur, Chitra Lekha Yadav, Bijay Gachchhedar and Jay Prakash Gupta are Madhesis who were at the helm of power both within the party and outside. It is altogether a different thing that their meteoric rise in the Nepali politics cannot be termed as merit-based. It is true that they did the initial leg-work required to get to the limelight but what is even truer is that Ram Baran Yadav, Chitra Lekha Yadav, Thakur, Gachchhedar and Gupta tremendously benefited from Girija Prasad Koirala’s benevolence.<br /><br />It was a two-way street. The Tarai being the base of NC, Koirala needed Madhesi faces to cater to the base. But the condition was that they ought to be completely subservient. All of the aforementioned personalities fitted the bill. At least, till the late 1990s. Unlike the two Yadavs and Thakur, Gachchhedar and Gupta, who happen to be notoriously shrewd and opportunists, skimmed the system quite well to transform themselves from lightweights to heavyweights in the NC. The relationship, however, was perfectly symbiotic.<br /><br />As long as corrupt and incompetent people who surrounded Koirala exhibited their unflinching support for him, he did not care about their incompetence or corrupt ways. By the time Koirala realized their actual intent, it was too late. They had already established themselves in Nepali politics. Turning a blind eye on wrongdoings of the followers proved to be costly for the NC. The party that people once looked up as a party of ideas and vision under B P Koirala’s able leadership has been completely reduced to a party of self-serving power mongers. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">With Koirala gone, the NC is at a crossroads. The recently held general convention provided the NC with an opportunity to gain its lost ground and glory. How Sushil Koirala, the new president of NC, runs the party will largely determine whether or not the grand old party will be able to reinvent itself. Sushil’s lack of desire to enjoy power reflects his selflessness, which is rare in Nepali politics. He is the kind of man that Nepali people would like to see as party bosses. But in the political landscape full of opportunists, will his idealism be able to bring the much-needed transformation? Will his idealism triumph over opportunism, which is rampant within NC? The people that made Koirala sleepwalk toward the end of his life are now rooting for Sushil. His electoral victory was necessary for the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula to remain in circulation in Nepali politics. Sushil’s success as the NC’s president will largely depend on whether or not he will be able to ward off undue pressure from the likes of Sitaula. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">There was quite a buzz about the emergence of new faces in the NC’s district-level elections. But will this translate victory into anything meaningful for the party? <span style=""> </span>Of course, it is a good thing. Especially in a country, where almost 65 percent of the population is below 30 years of age, such change will have to be engineered. NC, for its own survival, needs to promote young leaders that better understand the aspirations of Nepali youth. The failure to do so has led to mass exodus of middle-class youth that are the actual believers of liberal democracy.<br /><br />NC’s reinvention largely depends on reversal of this trend and its ability to better connect with them. However, for young, newly-elected district leaders and central committee members to focus on problems confronting the nation, they will first have to be assured of their political career. For the drive for hard work to come, these youngsters have to have faith over the leadership’s integrity and its commitment toward promoting hardworking and competent individuals. So far, the youngsters in the party have not exhibited that level of independence. The votes that Bhim Bahadur Tamang and Narahari Acharya garnered during the recent convention clearly show that the youngsters are not willing to break free from clientelism and risk their political career. Will Sushil be more willing to promote competence over clientelism?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">Will Sushil be able to get out of the influence of the fat cats within the NC whose insensitivity toward problems of citizens and ideological decay sunk the party this low? His first major test will be the nomination of the central committee members. It will make clear whether Sushil is truly a selfless man ready to gamble his post for greater good of the party and the nation or an indecisive politician whose lack of confidence in solving problems made him to shy away from powerful positions in the cabinet. Sushil has a greater responsibility than any other past presidents of his party. </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Cambria","serif";">Today, multiparty democracy, whose existence is crucial for the survival of NC, is in real danger. He needs to find a clever way of mainstreaming the Maoists and prevent the CPN-UML and ethnic parties from falling into the Maoists’ trap. His ability to solve these problems and reinvent the party will largely depend upon whether or not he will be able to operate as an independent thinker and bring in new faces with new ideas onboard.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="msoIns"><ins></ins></span></p>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-82794694807777257282010-09-13T09:21:00.001-04:002010-09-13T09:24:44.402-04:00Illusive realization<p>A renowned journalist in Kathmandu during a conversation last week acknowledged something that very few journalists in Nepal dare to write about. He basically told me three things. First, the peace process is dead. Second, the euphoria of spring 2006 revolution has all but dissipated and there is a seething anger among the public about the ongoing political mess. Third, the country needs a major course correction if it is to be saved from slipping into anarchy. </p><p>His views did not surprise me at all. It did not surprise me, because for me, achieving multiparty democracy by joining hands with the violent radical communists was always a far-fetched dream that I simply could not conceptualize. Hard- headed me? Sure, but I have to have evidences to believe in something. For me, hope is not a method. And, if history is any lesson, it has never happened anywhere else. Deep down, this is one of such instances where I very much wanted to be proved wrong. Honestly, there are very few instances when I have felt that way. The nation and people would have benefited and their hope for peace would have come true.</p><p>His words got me thinking. How did we get where we are? The political malaise that we witness in Nepal is not of current making. It is a result of inept political decisions taken year after year for more than the past one and a half decade. The revolution of 1990 had provided a perfect platform to radically transform the nation. It is impossible to have such a golden opportunity anytime soon. Girija Prasad Koirala’s hunger for power, ballot-rigging and horse-trading culture that he oversaw and did nothing to control, herd of incompetent and corrupt politicians that he cropped to checkmate Ganeshman Singh and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s more moderate and comparatively well-educated followers destroyed the prospects of democratic consolidation in Nepal. Inability to bring about a social change through radical reforms turned a perfect ground for democratic consolidation into a breeding ground for violent insurgency, which Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai had failed to achieve their political dreams under Nirmal Lama’s leadership and beyond were sharp enough to see.</p><p> GP Koirala’s annihilation methods of fellow competitors within the party and exceptional expertise in bringing down the government soon became the norm in Nepali politics. All sides: United Marxist Leninist (UML) to former royalists adapted it well to their best advantage. The recent audio tape scandal in which Krishna Bahadur Mahara is heard pleading his Chinese handler millions for political horse-trading is nothing new in Nepali politics. The only difference is that Mahara having been on the run in jungles did not realize that, unlike in jungles, in human settlements, communications can be intercepted and recorded to score political points. People learn from mistakes. This incidence is sure to bring about enhanced sophistication in Mahara’s future dealings.</p><p>In Nepal, politics has never been about people. It is practiced in the name of people but not for the people. If we look back, justifications for political change has been always based on people. But as and when political changes materialize, it is quickly reduced to a political opportunism and money making scheme. Repetition of it over and over again can be interpreted in two ways. A more neutral interpretation would call it as the failure of political leadership without raising a question of about whether or not it ever had a vision about as and how to bring about socio-political and economic change. But if an evidence based approach is to be taken, there is ample room to suspect the very intentions of politicians that advocate political change. Looking back political change that politicians pushed for appears more like a ploy to get to the corridor of power and remain there than anything else. What follows the change is misinterpretation of what change was actually for.</p><p>The political bickering and power struggle of mid-90s and onward succumbed whatever little vision that Nepali politicians had in terms of bringing about the real change in Nepal. Politicians both within the Nepali Congress and the UML spent more time sharpening their skills required to out-compete the opposition faction within the party than thinking through the issues confronting Nepali society. In the absence of their ability to solve people’s problems, emergence of a powerful political force was eminent, which they conveniently undermined till the Maoists gained grounds and emerged as a prominent threat for their political survival.</p><p>Gyanendra’s political adventurism provided a perfect ground for the Maoists to lure the major political parties. The political parties by then had become so used to remaining in the power that they saw nothing wrong in the Maoists’ lewd act.India’s assurance as a guarantor must have provided additional confidence. But what the parties that agreed to bed with the Maoists and India that provided both the moral and material support to the Maoists during the insurgency undermined was that the Maoists that were promising to play by the rules were not loafers that all of a sudden had gotten their hands on guns.</p><p>The mainstreaming of a violent radical communist group that had picked guns after being disillusioned with the parliamentary democracy cannot and should not have been based on mere commitments. But the necessity clouded judgments. India saw it as a perfect opportunity to dislodge ultra-nationalist monarchy, parties wanted additional force to fight back the crackdown on them, and as far as the Maoists were concerned, it was the best opportunity to parachute to the urban areas. There might be few, but there people like myself, who still believe that Gyanendra’s political adventurism could have been defeated without joining hands with the Maoists. It would have taken time and that is what GP Koirala did not have on his side. Joining hands with the Maoists has created more problems than it has solved. Looking back, politicians must have realized that putting strategy before ideology is never productive in the long run. Joining hands with ideologically antagonistic force is always counterproductive and dangerous.</p><p>It is not the politicians’ fault, entirely. Neither media, nor intellectuals cautioned about the possible dangers associated with bedding with the Maoists. Some did not want to jeopardize their status by sticking their neck out, whereas others did not want to come across as a “regressive” element in a nation that is immersed in “ultra-progressive” glory. That was three years ago. The media and intellectuals are still reluctant to question the utility of the Constituent Assembly, whose main function is to draft a new constitution and act as a legislature. Failure to promulgate a constitution within the stipulated date and elect a prime minister even after the seven rounds of voting has already proved its futility. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is insanity. Isn’t it high time for Nepali media, academics, and intellectuals to engage in real analysis rather than put faith in the process that has failed to produce results? Committing one mistake after another is not the way to build an egalitarian society. Learning from the past mistakes and doing things differently when things do not work is.</p><input name="charset_test" value="€,´,€,´,水,Д,Є" type="hidden"><input name="fb_dtsg" value="u31DZ" autocomplete="off" type="hidden"><input id="feedback_params" name="feedback_params" value="{"actor":"15620213","target_fbid":"431301556045","target_profile_id":"15620213","type_id":"14","source":"2","assoc_obj_id":"","source_app_id":"","extra_story_params":[],"check_hash":"5fad90515d0ae658"}" autocomplete="off" type="hidden"><input id="post_form_id" name="post_form_id" value="43235cf84bf4c70b6bd674ade16996c1" autocomplete="off" type="hidden"><span class="UIActionLinks UIActionLinks_bottom"><label class="comment_link" title="Leave a comment"></label></span>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-38349729114097192772010-08-30T23:10:00.001-04:002010-08-30T23:13:33.569-04:00Shameless power struggle<div class="notePermalinkSidecol lfloat">The political parties continue to foist ugly power struggle on an unwilling and ailing nation. It is very unlikely that the ongoing power struggle will end with the sixth round of prime ministerial election slated for Sept 5. The struggle will not end, not because it cannot, if sincere effort is made, but because the stakes are too high for the parties involved. Nepali Congress (NC) does not want Puspa Kamal Dahal to become the PM for a very simple reason. Once Dahal gets back to the power, it will be virtually impossible to edge him out. With the strength that Dahal has in the Constituent Assembly, money his fellow proletariats have made after coming over ground, and the muscle power that he has kept intact by not agreeing to the integration plan proposed by the ruling coalition members, NC with its dwindling base has more than enough reasons to play safe. Besides that, NC’s politicians that have gotten shamelessly used to taking turns in enjoying power without facing the electorate, genuinely think that it is their turn to rule the country.<div><p>For the Maoists, the situation is equally tricky. Dahal and his fellow comrades very well understand that whoever becomes the Prime Minister now will oversee the expiration of the CA. They will have no bargaining power that they enjoy now once the CA expires, all bets will be off. The transformation of image, from murderous guerillas to elected politicians has been a glorious one. Power, prestige, and money that came with the transformation of image are not things that the Maoists would want to lose. Going back to jungles is, thus, not an option anymore, no matter how hard they try to lie about it. They want more power, not less. And, they will keep holding the nation hostage one way or the other till they get what they want.</p><p>As far as Jhala Nath Khanal is concerned, he has no option but to operate under the guise of neutrality. The pace with which political and security situation is worsening in the country, he very well understands that he might not have another chance in the future. For now, playing at the hands of the Maoist comrades very well serves his purpose and there is very little K P Oli and Madhav Nepal can do about it. Pushing Khanal too hard may result in getting him even closer to the Maoists, which obviously Oli and Nepal do not want. Madhav has already become the Prime Minister, but for Oli, that dream is still alive, and in order to fulfill that, he needs his party to remain intact. If courting external force alone was enough, politicians of fringe parties would have become PM long ago. Oli is seasoned enough to understand that reality. So, for Oli, there is very little that he can do at this point in time than letting Khanal continue his quest for premiership under the veil of neutrality.</p><p>The problem, however, is not limited to domestic struggle over power. It runs way too deep. Like domestic political forces, international forces, too, are also trying hard to out-compete each other. The quest for control has gotten so fierce that India has engaged itself to such a level that it has started micromanaging things in Nepal. Increased Indian activities have alarmed China. Recent flurry of visits by Chinese officials clearly hints that China is definitely not happy about bloated Indian presence in Nepal. Besides, India and China, which happen to have the biggest interest in having Nepal in their sphere of influence, there are other Western forces that have significant interest in Nepal. Multiple external actors with both covert and overt interest and their support to warring sides have brought the political process to a grinding halt.</p><p>While both domestic and external struggle for control over Nepal is getting uglier and deadlocked, there is something else that is happening in Nepal. The state is slowly but certainly inching toward collapse. The industrial sector is bleeding to death due to a daily eight-hour power cut and the militant activities of the Maoists’ labor union. More than 300 industries, mostly small and medium ones, are believed to have shut their gates for good. When the entire world is progressing from industrialization, Nepal is wriggling backward. The dependency on subsistence agriculture is increasing. The only ray of hope is foreign employment. But putting too much faith on it will not get us anywhere. Had remittance been answer to domestic growth, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other leading labor exporting countries would have been first world nations long time ago.</p><p>The decay in security situation is equally alarming. Some 10,000 illegal small arms are believed to be floating around in the capital alone. If this is the situation in the capital city, what it would be like to live in hinterlands, where the state’s authority has completely eroded? In order to buy-in popular support, political parties, especially the Maoist, pushed social mobilization to such a dangerous level that it has out-stripped institutional capacity. The level of sophistication and impunity with which land sharks operate in the country and radical communists that pretend to be playing by the norms of democracy confiscate private property says all about the power of the institutions on the ground. Both personal and political freedom of citizens has been severely curtailed. For citizens, the collapse of the state is an abstraction. It has already happened.</p><p>The chaos will further worsen if strong action is not taken immediately. The problem, however, is that there is no institution in Nepal that sees itself as the bulwark against worsening chaos. The president has so far been reluctant to send even a strong signal. He seems content hosting dinners for foreign dignitaries and gracing religious functions. The only bold step he took after he took office was the reinstatement of Rookmangud Katwal as the army chief. The time has come again that he steps forward and does the needful. The first thing in his to-do list should be the dissolution of this worthless CA. Even the partisan hacks now acknowledge that this CA will not draft the constitution, so what’s the point in wasting tax payers’ money in feeding fraudulent sharks? Dissolve the CA and demine the field by putting criminals behind bars. The election date should come along with the dissolution notice, or else, these very politicians that have been making a mockery of democracy will try to paint the president as a dictator. Contentious agendas such as the federal structure should be put on the ballot.</p><p>It is important to put an end to the manipulative politics that Dahal and his fellow comrades are engaged in and force politicians of moderate political parties that have mastered the shameless art of backdoor dealings to face the electorate. Enough is enough!</p></div></div>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-6711663446732381222010-08-16T09:15:00.001-04:002010-08-16T09:21:52.729-04:00End experiments<div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:130%;">The political situation in Nepal is getting murkier each day. Recently, India sent two of its former ambassadors to Nepal to find the "outlet". One of them, K V Rajan, who landed immediately after Shyam Saran left is still busy with parleys. Subsequent visits of the former Indian diplomats make it clear that the situation is out of control of the handlers based in Indian Embassy campus in Kathmandu. This is certainly not the situation, where bureaucrats, especially the young ones trying to vault higher into the overly bureaucratic and hierarchical structure of the Indian Foreign Service (IFS), would like to be in. They, for their part, seem to have tried everything from backdoor dealings to issuing open threats. But at times, things do not work despite all sweat and toil, and that is life. It certainly doesn't feel good, does it?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">To India's dismay, things in Nepal is surely not going the way Saran and other "Nepal experts" based in Delhi had imagined, when they came up with the formula of bedding the violent Maoist radicals with the moderate mainstream political parties. They thought that by catapulting the Maoists into the mainstream—which is what they thought they were doing till the Maoists swept Constituent Assembly elections—they would have complete dominance over Nepali politics and politicians. It would have been true if politics was an electric circuit where you exactly know the way electric current flows, and stop it, if need be. But politics is not an electrical circuit. In it, you have an ego, ambitions, power, and money at play. Hence, deciphering how one would act in changed circumstances is a very tricky business.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">Saran and others crafting India's "pragmatic" Nepal policy should have taken cues from what happens in India all the time. Protégé abandon their political mentors as their political base and popularity expands. Nitish Kumar, the current chief minister of Bihar, which is also the home state of Saran, is one such example. Nitish ended the parliamentary career of George Fernandes, who was not only his mentor but also a person that helped a formerly lightweight Nitish to jump start his stagnant political career under Lalu Prasad Yadav. It was Fernandes that helped Kumar to break away from Lalu's Janata Dal in 1994 and form the Samata Party. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">Saran and fellow pragmatists placed enormous confidence on transformational power of Indian establishment's moral and materialsupport to the Nepali Maoists during the insurgency and their role as a "guarantor" and "facilitator" of the twelve-point agreement signed in New Delhi. They thought it was more than enough to keep the Nepali Maoist on a leash. But little did they realize that impacts of moral and material support strength-bound and wane as protégé gain their own strength. As support base swells, they feel less obliged to remain subservient. It happened with the Maoists and again with the Madhesi People's Rights Forum. In the case of later, India was quite successful to contain the defection by administering vertical split. The bottom line is that moral and material support does not buy eternal subservience.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">To say the least, India's policy toward Nepal is seriously flawed. It wants to turn Nepal into a subservient client state like Bhutan, butcan't articulate exactly how. This inability has led India to engage in a never-ending series of dangerous experiments that have completely destroyed the prospects of establishment of egalitarian republican order in Nepal. India sincerely hoped that uprooting of the Monarchy would align its Southern neighbor permanently in its sphere of influence. But that hope got dashed away when the tactical use of nationalism by the monarchy was soon replaced by the jingoism of the Maoists. In order to neutralize the Maoists, Indian establishment then exploited the genuine quest for ethnic empowerment. While the Madhesi politicians are being assured of all help in their quest, the likes of Laxman Tharus that are dead against Madhesi parties' one madhes agenda are being occasionally ferried to New Delhi for secret consultation and direction by the Indian intelligence. Ethnic populace clamoring for their genuine rights appearas confused, if not more, as ever. Even the leaders appear bewildered. Recently, Upendra Yadav, during one of his media interviews said that it is not only Kathmandu but also Delhi does not understand their plight. If Nepali media is to be trusted, there are reports all over about K V Rajan and the current Indian ambassador meeting Gyanendra Shah. If this is true, the never-ending experimentation in the name of "pragmatism" by the Indian establishment has made a complete circle.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">At present, India's policy toward Nepal is no different from managing a brothel—a purely business transaction, where the pimps are identified and paid off to get the best beauty in town in bed. Playing one forces against another has completely uprooted people's faith over the political process. It is not only that, people are losing lost faith over liberal democracy. The politicians of ethnic parties now come across as puppets playing at the hands of external power. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;">In summary, India has made Nepali populace, both Pahadis and Madhesis, wary of its intentions. It can certainly do better. All it has to do is stand by its commitment to the democratic process. People of Nepal, at least the educated ones, very well understand the sensitivity of Indo-Nepal relationship. The new herd of politicians and bureaucrats cropped up from the well-established transparent democratic system would be more level-headed and reliable than the ones currently in circulation and bartered occasionally. They may not serve Indian interest completely, but for sure, they will not be foolish like the herd we have now to resort to jingoism. The transaction costs of dealing with them will be far less than what India is incurring now. End experiments and get back to the basics. It will be beneficial both for India and Nepal.</span></div>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-44845870130037502892010-08-02T14:42:00.001-04:002010-08-02T14:44:32.693-04:00Identify the problemWill the nation have a new prime minister on August 2? The chances are slim. The chances are slim not because the political parties are not on the same page on who should be leading the government but because there is no proper framework that forces them to come to an agreement. If the past history is any indication of as and when Nepali politicians come to a consensus, it is the political survival or the chances of losing pay and perks that drive them.<br /><br />Where has the call for “political consensus” gotten us? There is a rapid decay in social and institutional capital. Insecurity and political instability have triggered massive flight of human and financial capital. Lack of security has forced thousands of village development committee secretaries to resign en masse, which will have disastrous impact on community development. The Maoists cashed-in on local disenchantment when local bodies were functional. Their absence, now, will result in an unchecked mushrooming of radical and criminal groups. The difference between the two is pretty blurred in Nepal.<br /><br />Let’s accept the fact that living in the hell of misplaced good intentions has not gotten us anywhere. The never-ending cry for political consensus will have to come to an end some day, the sooner the better. Politics is a competitive business and it is better that way. Every politician has an ambition to reach to the top most level. And, especially in a context like ours, where the political process is translucent and rules are arbitrary, it is quite natural for the politicians to do whatever it takes to get the job. Political pundits and the media should shed their obsession with “political consensus” and think about ways to as and how we can make politicians act responsibly and deliver so that we are not at their mercy. They should stop hinting that without political consensus the country is going to go down the drain. We are already on our way there if we don’t reverse our course!<br /><br />We live in a nation where a majority government did not last a full term. What kind of consensus are we talking about here? Is it even rational to ask for everlasting consensus among the parties with such a stark difference in ideology and agenda?<br /><br />Yes, we all need a constitution, and without a consensus among the political parties, it is not possible to have one. Makes perfect sense, at least theoretically. But theories are good on paper. We live in a practical world where economic dividends and power define political actions. Constitution-making is neither economically profitable, nor does it bar politicians not engaged in its making ineligible to enjoy power. So why bother? Besides, each party has its own view as to how the constitution should be. The Maoists do not care about it, as they know very well that with the current configuration in the Constituent Assembly (CA), they cannot have the constitution of their liking. The major political parties of yesteryears want to have a constitution not very different from the 1990s, which they very well know is not possible given the fragmented political landscape and upsurge in ethnic consciousness. As far as ethnic parties are concerned, sticking to the ridiculously inflexible ethnic demands, which they themselves put on the backburner while in power, is the only way to remain in circulation in Nepali politics.<br /><br />If the Maoists agree to the kind of the constitution that the NC and the UML want and the way they want the Nepal Army-People’s Liberation Army (PLA) merger to happen, it will be like mainstreaming into the post-1990 political system. If that is what they wanted, there was no need to fight the decade-long bloody insurgency. For the NC and UML, agreeing to the Maoists’ terms and conditions for constitution-writing and PLA merger would mean dwarfing their own future prospects. Why would they want to do that? The rude awakening that came with the Maoist victory in the CA election is enough to keep them skeptical toward the Maoists for a long time.<br /><br />Every political parties on the ground will talk about the necessity of having a constitution and moving the political process forward but that is all we will get if the system is not forced to change. The change in guard is irrelevant at this point in time. The debate should be over whether or not the new prime minister will be able to achieve the things that we want him to achieve? If not, how does it matter?<br /><br />There is a fault within the existing system, which political pundits, media, and the so- called intellectuals are collectively ignoring. Endless regurgitation of the need for consensus is not going to help ease the existing political stalemate, which actually is the result of the consistent abuse of the political system in the name of consensus. By forcing strange bedfellows to conjugate indefinitely, we are dwarfing the chances of realization of democracy. The realization of democracy is contingent upon rules of the game that provide political parties competing against one another a chance to govern within institutional systems that guarantee fairness and a genuine opportunity for alternation of power between competing parties. We need a political system that can punish crime and corruption, mediate between ethnic forces and competing economic interests and turf incompetents out peacefully.<br /><br />There is no way that politicians are going to agree on the contentious issues, for example, whether or not the entire Madhes should be one province. Such issues determine the political career of many politicians who would be jobless if these issues are solved amicably. The best way to deal with such issues would be referendum. By trying to take a short-cut, we are wasting our time, resources, and energy, which need to be used in creating employment opportunities for youths. In the absence of decent employment opportunities, young Nepalis are being turned into hotheads by conniving separatists, radical ideologues, and criminals.<br /><br />Our obsession with “political consensus” has allowed politicians to abuse the political system endlessly. They can conveniently choose chance over sovereignty; uncertainty over certainty; darkness over light. The only way to stop the free fall is to take the route that we should have taken after the CA failed to do its duty. We should have gone for fresh elections with contentious issues on the ballet. The process would have been much more transparent. By shying away from the democratic processes and forcing unusual bedfellows to remain in symbiotic relationship indefinitely, we are stifling the prospects of democratic consolidation. It is about time we identified the real problem behind the existing political stalemate.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-86495365479833331542010-07-19T18:27:00.002-04:002010-07-19T18:30:51.083-04:00Will political drama ever end?It’s already been two weeks since Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned from his post as the Prime Minister. His resignation would break the political deadlock and enhance the possibility of consensus politics. At least, that is what the Maoists said before he formally put his resignation on the paper and called it quits. Contrary to their assertion, his resignation has further thickened the plot.<br /><br />Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his comrades had really hoped that once Nepal quit, it would be really easy to use gullible opportunists within the CPN-UML to pressurize their leadership to support the Maoists, which obviously has not happened so far. The Maoists’ calculation has once again gone wrong. But at least they had a formula that they thought would work in their favor. They are down but not out. They will pull up their sleeves and gear up for another showdown. So no matter who replaces Nepal, he or she will not have easier days ahead. It is, therefore, better to realize the fact that radical communism is part and parcel of Nepali politics. Undermining or wishing it away is naïve. Instead of engaging in endless checkmate game, it is better to keep them engaged and find ways to mainstream them.<br /><br />While the Maoists are committed to achieving their end goal, come what may, the ruling coalition is glued together by two things: The lust for power and the threat of the Maoist intimidation and take over. The fragility of the coalition is evident from their differences over who should head the next government. If the coalition was really sincere about institutionalizing democracy and safeguarding the people’s rights, the issue of premiership would have been insignificant. Nepal’s resignation has thrown coalition members out of orbit.<br /><br />The lust for power among the major political party leaders of the current coalition is the major reason why the President’s call to form a national consensus government failed to produce any results. Not only the first deadline but the second one was also missed. If the ongoing wrangling continues, we will have no idea of Nepal’s successor till the last minute. It is quite possible that the election of the new PM through voting in the Constituent Assembly (CA) on July 21 may still not produce a conclusive winner if the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were to field their own candidates.<br /><br />Is anything wrong with the ongoing political drama? For external forces that have political and security interests in Nepal, politicians can wrangle as much as they want to. As long as the chaos is controllable, political pendulum can swing the way it likes. For politicians, it is the pay and perks that need to keep flowing. In the current situation whereby the prospect of facing electorate is extremely remote, the need to deliver is simply not in anybody’s priority. As far as the power brokers in Kathmandu are concerned, till the chances of remaining in circulation are alive, they will not have to worry about benefiting from the liquidation of the state. They have mastered the art of rebranding, can become anything from civil society members to partisan hack, as the political landscape shifts.<br /><br />Given the level of insensitivity exhibited by the external players, politicians, and power brokers toward the degrading political and economic condition, it is high time that people hit the streets like they did against the Maoists’ blockade couple of months ago. The sooner the better. Nepali people need to be concerned about the degenerating political culture which is having a disastrous impact on the way we live and enjoy political and personal freedom. Not only that, it is also jeopardizing the prospects of socioeconomic development. Recently, the Maoist Central Committee member and commander of the PLA Fifth Division in Rolpa, Kali Bahadur Kham, was found to have conducted suspicious transaction with Chinese traders, who eventually ended up getting robbed by the revolutionary. This shows the level of criminalization in politics. It is not only the politicians that are resorting to criminal activities to enrich themselves. Tej Bahadur Karki, a Hetauda Appellate Court Judge, was recently suspended for his involvement in an inappropriate release of abduction kingpins: Sanjaya Shrestha, Rohit Paliwal Agrawal and Bhimsen Pundit. The ongoing rapid decay of institutions is having a serious impact on our chances to emerge as a modern and prosperous society. The new measure, called the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed and applied by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative with the support of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) shows that 78 percent of Nepalis live on two dollars a day. These poor are barely surviving, not thriving. We are even behind impoverished nations like Haiti, Djibouti, and Swaziland.<br /><br />The reason why we are regressing despite never-ending progressive hoopla is that we let politics triumph over rules. We, as a nation, are more interested in political outcomes, rather than the process. We, as a matter of fact, do not care about the process at all. For example, we want a new government but are least concerned about whether the process of having such a government in place is transparent and ethical. By not doing so, we undermine the fact that what we are doing today will build on what we want to do tomorrow. If we want a transparent and functional political system, we should be prioritizing the process, rather than getting obsessed with outcomes. It might be a long and arduous process, but it at least ensures definite outcomes that cannot be easily rigged by corrupt politicians, that are more interested in enriching themselves rather than serving their constituents.<br /><br />We should stop letting politics triumph over the rules. President Ram Baran Yadav, should make the CA members play by the rules and stop extending deadlines. Yadav, a decent man, must take part of the blame for political malaise. By appearing too lenient, he is making the swamp even murkier. It is time we drained the swamp to prevent it from becoming murkier and smellier. Politicians in the CA see take him for granted and treat as a fellow traveler rather an authority, where the buck should actually stop. The buck has to stop somewhere. Someone has to be there to say enough is enough or else the political drama will go on forever.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-33677988740527666982010-07-05T12:26:00.001-04:002010-07-05T12:28:02.396-04:00The game is onThe clock started ticking for the thrilling and unpredictable drama of the race for the prime ministerial post the very minute Madhav Kumar Nepal put down his papers. Along with the usual contenders of major political parties, the bosses of fringe parties too have thrown their hat in the ring. Given the level of hatred that the Indian establishment harbors against Pushpa Kamal Dahal, it is very unlikely that he will end up having the job once again. The leader of the largest party in the parliament is all but out of the race. Dahal is a victim of his own unwarranted shrewdness. By now, he must have realized that even in a gullible nation, there is a limit to which you can exploit populism and stoke ultra-nationalism to get to power.<br /><br />India would have no problem letting the Maoist party head the government if Dahal made way for Dr Baburam Bhattarai. The work to make that happen has been underway for a while now. India’s proxies in Nepal have been openly promoting the idea of Bhattarai as prime minister. The Tarai-based Madhesi parties have come out openly in favor of Bhattarai. Recently, Brikhesh Chandra Lal of Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party went to the extent of saying that Bhattarai was the only capable candidate in the Maoist party to head the government. The change of heart in favor of Bhattarai is not a coincidence. It is a part of a greater design of the Indian establishment to bring about virtual split in the Maoist party. The Maoist party at its current form is too big for India to dictate and its proxies in Nepal to compete with. Indians calling the shot truly believe that the only way to break the Maoist party is by promoting Bhattarai and making him compromise on contentious issues like integration of Maoist combatants.<br /><br />Given the intra-party feud in the Nepali Congress (NC) and its antagonistic posture against the Maoist party, there is a huge possibility that Jhalanath Khanal might emerge as a consensus candidate for the prime minister’s post. Having Khanal as prime minister has its own pros and cons. It may temporary halt the migration of CPN-UML cadres to the Maoist party and delay the defection of the likes of Bamdev Gautam. In other words, having him as a prime minister may delay the surge of the political left in Nepal. The longevity of the government under Khanal will be greater than that of anyone from the NC. This is mainly because the Constituent Assembly members from the UML will not support the NC government for long even if it materializes. The chances of the NC heading the government are very slim at this point of time. Given the fact that even the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Shekhar Koirala, both of whom once openly boasted about bringing the Maoists over ground, have now become weary about the Maoists’ intentions, there is very little reason for the Maoists to support NC to form a government. If they cannot head the government, they want someone who favors them. Or else they had no reason to persist on getting rid of Madhav Nepal.<br /><br />The danger associated with Khanal’s ascendancy to power is that he is too tilted toward the left. If you look at Khanal’s views on crucial issues and his relationship with Dahal and other Maoist leaders, it becomes quite evident that there is not much of a difference between him and the top-level Maoist ideologues. Additionally, Khanal flip-flops too. At this point in time, we need someone who can tactfully deal with the Maoists on the issue of integration of combatants, pressurize them to return seized properties, demobilize Young Communist League’s paramilitary structure, and crush criminal activities under ethnic cover. We need someone who can deliver on the aforementioned fronts and still have enough political capital to spend on the constitution-making process. Given Khanal’s cozy relationship with the Maoist party, his emergence as a compromise candidate may help solve the existing political stalemate but will be of no use when it comes to mainstreaming the Maoists. The mainstreaming of the Maoists is crucial because unless that happens, the desire to have a republican order of their liking will remain alive and kicking.<br /><br />Madhav Nepal’s government failed on all possible fronts. It could not work well with the opposition party, failed miserably to maintain law and order, and was fiscally irresponsible. But Nepal must be given credit for not heeding to Maoists’ coercion. He did not heed to Maoist threat of indefinite strike, which the Maoists were forced to withdraw because of the lack of popular support. Nepal might have gotten the directives from international players to not get coerced by the Maoists but it takes some courage to stand the heat. We all know how capable the Maoists are in extracting concessions from gullible personalities. The late Girija Prasad Koirala’s post-2006 stint as prime minister is a classic example. At this juncture, the country needs a strong but tactical prime minister to effectively deal with the Maoists. We need someone who can adopt a carrot-and-stick approach required to tame the Maoists and take the constitution-drafting process forward at the same time. By now, even the eternal optimists must have realized how misguided the process of achieving peace through the appeasement of the Maoists has been.<br /><br />None of the claimants for the premiership have the required political will and capital to deliver on all fronts. There is no evidence whatsoever to believe that the new government will last longer than the one it replaces. But the resignation of Madhav Nepal has opened up a space for political compromise. It has once again given chance to Nepali politicians to come together and solve the problems confronting the nation. Nepali people would feel lucky even if some of the contentious issues are resolved.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-3042012653787426662010-06-21T00:11:00.000-04:002010-06-21T00:13:37.548-04:00Speak the TruthThe political stalemate continues unabated. While the members of the current coalition continue to stick to the demand of the dissolution of paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) and return of the property seized property, the Maoists like in the past are trying their best to get away without fulfilling these demands. Given the level of political dishonesty that the Maoists exhibit, will these demands, that have a far reaching consequences on how we live and pursue our livelihoods, be ever met? Many concerned citizens have these questions crossing their minds.<br /><br />Let’s get this straight: The paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) will not be dissolved and the seized property will never be returned. There are many reasons for this, the prime being: In the Maoists’ collective consciousness, YCL is not a paramilitary force. It is a youth political force like the ones that every other major Nepali political party has. As far as the seized properties are concerned, 90 percent have been already returned. This is what the chief architect of the Maoist Party, Baburam Bhattarai said when grilled by Fauziah Ibrahim of the Al Jazeera television, recently. Is Bhattarai telling the truth? Absolutely not! There is ample evidence to support the fact that YCL is a paramilitary force. As far as the return of the seized properties is concerned, the process is yet to begin. Despite their pledge to return the seized properties, the Maoists continue to seize private properties. Ms. Ibrahim presented the fact that the latest event of confiscation occurred in May of 2010.<br /><br />Bhattarai’s latest interview raises a serious question on his integrity. Bhattarai, whom many youngsters revere as the most honest politician, may not be what they believe him to be. The time has come for the bewildered youths who see political messiah in Bhattarai to take a close look at things he says and does. There is clear disconnect. It might be dangerous to chase fantasies preached by intellectual guru that believes in radical violent means to social reform and has an audacity to lie with a straight face knowing the fact that he will be watched by millions within and beyond the national boundary.<br /><br />What should we expect from our politicians? Should we expect moral perfection? Or should we expect them to do the job they were hired to do? Or, the both? Answering these questions might be even considered redundant given the level of dishonesty that Nepali politicians exhibit. Despite consistent outlandish remarks and violent outbursts, Bhattarai is considered as a relatively clean and competent leader. He has been so far successful in not only charming relatively well educated youths but also keeping the Indians that call the shots in Nepal guessing. At the end of the day, he might turn out to be not very different from his current boss Pushpa Kamal Dahal, whom India groomed unsuccessfully to serve its interest.<br /><br />Indians in their never ending experiment to turn Nepal into a client state are hedging their bet on Bhattarai primarily for two reasons. First, the Maoist party at its current form with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as a supreme leader is impossible to dictate. Hence, it needs to be cut down in size. And the best way to do that is by promoting Bhattarai, which they think will eventually lead to a vertical split in the Maoist party. Indian bureaucrats and intelligence operatives, especially the ones stationed in Kathmandu, seriously believe that making Bhattarai the next prime minister will bring about a split in the Maoist party. Second, Indians at this point have no bankable leader with popular mass support, whom they can rely on, to fulfill Indian interests.<br /><br />Bhattarai with a straight face lied to Ms. Ibrahim. Why did he do that? He did so for a very simple reason. And, the reason is—he can afford to do so. He very well realizes the fact that he is dealing with a fragmented electorate. People whose property has been seized belong to the upper middle class and beyond, who did not support the Maoist rebellion to begin with. Plus, they are the ones that complain about the YCL’s paramilitary activities. So, why even bother about being correct?<br /><br />Instead of engaging in a futile exercise of wining the hearts and minds of urban elites and “feudal” in hinterland, he talks about the rights of peasants to till the land. It is important to understand why Bhattarai and others ideologues in UCPN (Maoist) raise the issue of land reform, which they failed to act upon, while heading the government. In a country where approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line and millions are landless, the idea of land reform has tremendous political appeal. Through land reform the Maoist, want to hand out “rights” to politically correct groups (read landless and tenants). At the end of the day, by expanding the entitlements of these groups, they want to garner their undivided support and use them against other citizens that oppose Maoists’ agendas. In doing so, Bhattarai and his fellow ideologues conveniently ignore the fact that the cost of the gifts they bestow on these groups have to be borne by other hardworking citizens.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-57186762600845127982010-06-07T00:50:00.000-04:002010-06-07T00:51:42.276-04:00Never-ending political crisisThe nation would plunge into a bigger chaos if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is not extended. Nepali people must have heard this countless times in the past months, of course, and many must have accepted it without thinking. Life would be hunky dory and we would all live happily thereafter, political pundits and the media hinted. It was portrayed as the final hurdle to the finish line. Contrary to the political pundit and media’s assertion, the political stalemate has rather thickened. The latest deal retailed as an essential leap to bail out the country from plunging into the bigger chaos is increasingly appearing as another doomed assertion.<br /><br />The gravest problem this nation faces is the inability of the so- called intellectuals and media to confront the fact that we shouldn’t resort to deals to govern the nation. Deals can be conveniently bent or broken to suit political outcomes. In a country, where the end justifies the means, resorting to deals to bail the nation out of political stalemate is itself a recipe for disaster. Where have the countless deals signed in the past taken us?<br /><br />Nepalis complain endlessly about how immoral and stupid politicians are, and how badly they have lied to the public about this or that. But what we forget is that our politicians perfectly represent a nation that shows such a thoroughgoing incapacity for thought, and such an aversion to the truth about their own behavior. We seek morality and honesty in our politicians, when we, ourselves, are unwilling to confront the truth for what it is. It is high time that our political pundits and media bosses take a deep breath and try to analyze the crux of the problem before suggesting the easiest way out.<br /><br />By endlessly opting for an easy way out, we are piling up the problems and letting it accumulate for implosion. Instead of letting the parties fight it out democratically in elections, we are forcing them to do backdoor dealings, which are often not followed. If one is to venture forward mentally one baby step, one will quickly come to see that the deal that was struck minutes before the expiration of CA was a political necessity more than anything else. It was not something that came out of realization of responsibility towards Nepali people. Had KP Oli not struck a deal, the UML would have witnessed a vertical split. With the migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist camp, Oli would have lost substantial amount of political capital and the backing of India that he enjoys now. For Oli, it was a desperate act of political survival. As far as Pushpa Kamal Dahal is concerned, with dissolution of the CA, his stature and the bargaining power, which stems out of the sheer number that the Maoist party has in CA, would have ceased to exist. With India and the major political parties against Dahal’s prime ministerial aspirations, keeping the CA alive was a political necessity. For the Nepali Congress, sailing with the CPN-UML was the only option at hand. Keeping the CPN-UML intact is not only in the best interest of Oli and the incumbent prime minister but also the congress party. Any vertical split in the CPN-UML and the breakaway faction’s migration to the Maoist camp shall further dwarf the NC’s stature, which is the last thing that the NC wants at this point in time. NC’s political future is very much dependent upon its symbiotic relationship with the CPN-UML.<br /><br />What happened during the eve of May 28 was a desperate act of political survival. Now, that political parties have successfully bailed themselves out without spending much of their political capital, the game is on to out-fox each other. The NC and CPN-UML are all set to outsmart the Maoists in the very game that the Maoists used against them not a very long ago. The Maoists want to bounce back to the power by adhering to one of the three points in the deal—Prime Minister’s resignation—and undermining others. Whereas the CPN-UML, NC and India want to checkmate Dahal by asking the Maoists to first fulfill other points in the deal, which is virtually impossible. The power of the Maoist party and its control over the society comes from the muscle of the battle hardened fighters, whom it slyly rebranded as young communist leaguers and the loyal party members who are now enjoying the property looted in the last two decades. Why would the Maoists alienate its base and heed the demands put forward by NC and CPM-UML? It simply does not make any sense.<br /><br />So far, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has kept his prime ministerial aspirations under wraps. He wants to throw his hat in the ring after the incumbent resigns. And, that is where the problem lies. Both India and politicians of the major political parties do not want Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the next prime minister. For India, he is too unreliable to serve Indian interests, whereas for others, he is too ambitious and charismatic, who they think can cut their size further down. India would immediately give its nod and other parties would follow suit, if Baburam Bhattarai was to become the next prime minister. With the major political parties at home and India in an antagonistic mode, it might be the last thing that Pushpa Kamal Dahal might want at this point in time. In a quest for a shortcut through a new set of deals, we might have embarked on a senseless political quagmire. Very soon another round of deal-making might be needed to troubleshoot the snag in the deal signed on May 28.<br /><br />After all our nation is governed through deals, what’s wrong with that?Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-42378944578400014472010-05-24T07:36:00.002-04:002010-05-24T07:37:05.048-04:00Let CA expireThe two-year term of the Constituent Assembly (CA) is coming to an end on May 28. If not extended, which is highly unlikely, the CA’s 601 members will become jobless. Those that want to see these 601 bench warmers get jobless after May 28, hold your breath, do not hedge your bets, yet. A last minute deal on extension is very likely. The extension also extends flow of pay and perks. And when it comes to enriching oneself, Nepali politicians are shamelessly forthcoming. Consensus evade our politicians only when it comes to agreeing on matters that affect common men whose lives are severely blighted by the effects of poverty, unemployment, and lawlessness.<br /><br />So far, the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML and few smaller parties are the ones that have come forward vouching for the extension of the CA. I, for one, am totally against such a move. Extending the tenure of the CA is wrong on many levels. To begin with, there is no provision in the interim constitution that permits the extension of the CA. Also, it is against the spirit of electoral democracy. The major political parties that are vouching for the extension of the CA are, in reality, undermining the fact that in democracy, office holders are supposed to be responsive to the needs and desires of voters. In the case of failure to do so, which is the case, voters have the right to “throw the rascals out.” Basically, by extending the CA, the politicians are trying to devoid the voters their right and subvert the process of accountability.<br /><br />As clever as they are, the Maoists do not want to lend their support for extension of the CA until Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal steps down. After suffering major setbacks in recent months, they now have realized that their chances of getting back to power through majority rule are slim. Hence, they want to revert back to the consensus system, which they milked to the fullest extent. They were the ones that undermined the consensus system in an attempt to get Ram Raja Prasad Singh elected as the president. Despite their firm posture, there is very little room to believe that the Maoists will actually stick to not lending their support for extension. More than anything else, it is a bargaining ploy. For the Maoists, it is the CA that provides them the status of the largest party. With its expiration, all bargains that stems out of their status as the largest party is off the table.<br /><br />In this debate on whether or not the CA should be extended, the real issues that dwarfed the chances of having the new constitution in the first place is still not being discussed. Pundits bemoan the absence of bipartisanship. Implicitly, they believe that bipartisanship is necessary and sufficient to solve the existing political crisis. In their short-sightedness, they fail to acknowledge the fact that Nepali politics today actually is beset with irreconcilable differences. What the Maoists want at the end of the day is drastically different from that of the NC, UML, and other pro-parliamentary forces in Nepal. The nation is bitterly divided over ideology. Most people who care about politics are on one side or the other.<br /><br />It is time to acknowledge the fact that it is not the lack of time but differences over the issues that derailed the prospects of timely constitution. Without consensus on contentious issues such as integration of members of the People’s Liberation Army, dissolution of the Young Communist League, return of property seized by Maoists, guarantee of return of the internally-displaced people, and agreement on federal structure, the extension of the CA really does not make any sense. We can extend the CA by another five years and will still not have a constitution. And even if we ended up having one, the question of legitimacy will simply not go away. So what’s the point?<br /><br />Doing something that is beyond the spirit of interim constitution is not the right thing to do. It is high time that we do the right thing rather than things that are easy or appear right. There is a huge difference between doing the right thing and doing things right. Doing things right is a moving target that is based upon influence, power and control. In other words, it is another way of conforming to a politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out. And, we all know where embarking on politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out has gotten us. Many of those that took the credit for bringing the Maoists over ground are in the relentless process of reinventing themselves. They are now showcasing themselves as the wall of resistance against Maoist takeover. It is amazing to witness how easy it is to re-brand oneself in Nepal. By now, educated Nepalis, to whom country comes before political masters, must have gotten a good long look at the audacity of shamelessness, and seen how well it works out for those who dared try it.<br /><br />The political parties should let the CA expire and brace for fresh election. At this juncture, facing the electorate is the right thing to do. It takes great character, conviction, and confidence to do the right thing, which is why it has become a rarity in Nepali politics. It would involve personal sacrifices, political risk, and standing against the incompetent bench warmers in the CA that are constantly looking out for short-cuts to save their job, but also provides an opportunity to come clean and separate oneself from those that are masquerading as democrats.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-56988718888374876512010-05-10T08:35:00.001-04:002010-05-10T08:38:43.307-04:00The silent majority awakensThe Maoists’ “indefinite strike” aimed at dislodging the government hardly lasted a week. Comrades, who roared like lions while delivering their May Day speeches, appeared like wet kittens during the press conference organized to call off the strike. And, it all happened within a week. What forced the Maoists to call off their strike? It is a second major setback for them. The first being their unsuccessful attempt to bring down the government by obstructing the Constituent Assembly (CA).<br /><br />People watching the press conference could easily tell that Pushpa Kamal Dahal was lying when he said the decision to call off the strike was due to the discomfort faced by the general public. While he slyly based his premise to call off the strike on discomfort of the general public, he contradicted the very stance within minutes by labeling thousands of anti-strike protesters conspiratorial puppets riled up by the government to ignite confrontation among the public. The audacity it takes to tell these lies, straight to people’s faces that have watched Dahal’s honest side in Saktikhor tape shows that he doesn’t really care about the truth.<br /><br />Forget about the Saktikhor tape, it does not take much effort to find out the level of compassion that Dahal and his comrades have for common folks. The Maoists are still not letting thousands of people displaced during and after the insurgency to return home. Their property is yet to be returned. Every now and then the sister organizations of the Maoist party shuts down schools and colleges to prove their strength leaving children wondering about their future. The infamous acts of Young Communist Leaguers that have terrorized public are yet to stop.<br /><br />If Dahal and his comrades were really serious about providing comfort to the people, they would have disbanded YCL long time ago, returned the seized properties, and instructed their ideologues in the guise of student leaders not to fiddle around with the educational sector. All these are sufficient to prove that Dahal’s reason to call off the strike is nothing but a lie.<br /><br />Here are the real reasons why Dahal and his comrades called off the strike. The relationship between India and the Maoist party is getting worse, and India is hell-bent on not letting the revolutionaries come back to power unless they tone down their anti-India rhetoric. With India antagonized, the Maoists could not afford to lose the support of Europeans, specifically the Scandinavians. It would not reflect positively on the Scandinavians to support a party that pretty much makes the common folks life difficult.<br /><br />To make the matter worse for the revolutionaries, a peace rally was organized by the Valley folks. The Maoists were caught off guard by the sheer number of participants in the peace rally. Thousands of people who participated in the rally provided a further jolt to the Maoists’ crippling strike. Diminishing returns and increasing domestic and international pressure were the real reasons why Dahal and his comrades called off the strike. Beneath the heaps of lies and deceptions, is the compulsion that transformed the roaring lions into feeble kittens.<br /><br />We have to understand that the Maoists were forced to call off their indefinite strike. If they hadn’t called it off, it would have certainly invited bigger troubles for them. Had the Maoists gone berserk, the government would have been left with only one option, ie, to deploy the army. In the worst case scenario, the CA would have been dissolved. The mobilization of the army would have stalled the so-called peace process, which the Maoists have abused to every possible extent for their benefit, and which has so far produced everything but peace. With the dissolution of the CA, they would no longer have the status of the largest party, from which, comes their demand to lead the government. The Maoists took the lumps because they realized that they were treading on dangerous grounds. Swallowing pride when cornered is straight from the radical communists’ playbook.<br /><br />For now, the Maoists’ push for mobocracy has been defeated. But the battle is far from over. The Maoists have withdrawn, temporarily, but have not completely ejected themselves from the game. They will reassess the failure, re-plan, and strike again in the future, for sure. Let’s not be mistaken. They are in this game to win, not to let others win. They fought the decade-long insurgency because they want to dislodge the system and establish the one that works for them. The parties finally seem to realize the Maoists’ intentions and end goals. Whether it is the survival instinct that has kicked in or the international players’ warnings, the realization seems to have come to the Maoist leaders, finally.<br /><br />The brighter side of the Maoists’ failed attempt to promote mobocracy is that it has riled up the silent majority and sidelined the Maoist supporters in the guise of civil society advocates and human rights activists. The silent majority, whom the Maoists have been taking for a free ride and whose power they have been undermining, is, finally, waking up. This is also an indication that people are willing to confront the comrades if the government is really serious about tightening the noose on the Maoists. The appeasement of radicals has never brought peace anywhere in the world. It is good that the post 12-point agreement has all but vanished. We need pragmatists who understand the threat and dare to deal with it. The politics of lies and deceptions that Dahal and his fellow comrades have been using should be brought to an end once and for all. They should be stopped from coming to the power at any cost unless they reform themselves completely, and fulfill their past commitments and promises.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-21111248070075574052010-04-26T11:34:00.002-04:002010-04-26T11:38:07.060-04:00Way outFinally, the politicians are acknowledging that constitution will not be drafted by May 28. However, they are yet to acknowledge their personal responsibility in the failure. Everyone has their scapegoat ready. If you are someone with a radical bent, by now you must be convinced that it is the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML’s fault. For the NC and CPN-UML sympathizers, it is all because of the Maoists lack of interest in drafting the constitution. Finger pointing and the blame game will continue for a while.<br /><br />With the chances of promulgating the constitution by May 28 getting slimmer with each passing day, some politicians and pundits have already started floating the idea of extending the deadline. The deadline should not be extended for two reasons. First, rewarding incompetence is a horrible idea. It would set a wrong precedence. The absence of an adequate mechanism to reward the competent and, as a corollary, weed out the incompetent, is perhaps the most important factor that discourages talented youngsters from joining politics. Second, the politicians have promised heaven and earth to the people. In order to garner support, the Maoists and mushrooming ethnic parties have promised rights and resources to every ethnic group that they found would benefit them. They genuinely think that pursuing ethnic agenda will politically profit them down the road. Given the fact that the Maoists and ethnic parties are not going to budge on ethnic agenda, the NC, UML, and other smaller parties of yesteryears, frankly do not see room for negotiations. Giving in to the Maoist and ethnic parties’ demands means constricting their own base. So it is not the lack of time but refusing to rise above petty party interests that has stalled the drafting of constitution.<br /><br />For a viable constitution to be drafted, there has to be a minimum understanding between the major political parties. In the current adversarial environment, reaching any kind of consensus looks almost impossible. Therefore, instead of pushing for an extension of the deadline, what is needed now is a real sincere push toward the creation of an environment, whereby a constitution that is acceptable to the majority of the population can be drafted. It is not enough that we have a constitution. There has to be a consensus on the need to honor the one that we will eventually end up having. Or else, the very people engaged in drafting it will start running away from it as fast as their legs can carry them.<br /><br />It is important to lessen the hostilities and create an environment suitable for consensus. In order to create that environment, we need to have a national unity government. But before the national unity government is put in place, there should be an all-party agreement on contentious issues that derailed the possibility of having the constitution on time in the first place. With the rise of the possibility of getting into the government, politicians will be more willing to make compromises. As a regional power, and more than that, as the one that orchestrated and solemnized the marriage between the democratic forces and the radical communists, which was sure to end up in a nasty divorce not due to the ideological differences but due to the equal greed for power, India has the biggest role to play in bailing Nepal out of the current mess. It is not just because cleaning one’s mess is a moral imperative, but also because a rogue neighbor can be a pain in the neck. With Pakistan to its west and Bangladesh to its east, the last thing India wishes for is a rogue neighbor to its north.<br /><br />The problem that India has when it comes to dealing with Nepal’s perpetual mess, which is partly of its own making, is that its script is often like a B-grade Bollywood movie. It appears promising in the beginning but soon falls apart. What is needed is a tight script and professional directorial venture that very well takes into consideration the dubious nature of the characters. First and foremost, it is important to understand where these characters come from, where they stand, and what they want to achieve at the end of the day. If one is to look closely, it becomes very evident that all of them want the same thing, ie, power.<br /><br />In their quest for power, the Maoists want to subvert the rule of the majority through mass mobilization. They basically want to paralyze the government through their urban-centric uprising. While the Maoists want to inculcate a sense of fear among the people and paralyze the government, which they think will eventually pave their path to power, the non-Maoist parties, especially the bigger ones, want to portray the Maoists’ urban-centric uprising as a prelude to government takeover. The Maoists are not that stupid to take over power forcibly like some NC and UML politicians seem to suggest. They know it very well that it is not feasible to capture the state and run it in a fragmented political landscape like the one we are presently in. NC and UML leaders have their own interests in portraying the Maoists as dictators in making, which does have some truth to it though. They want to use it as a basis to justify their right to remain in power indefinitely.<br /><br />It is almost impossible that political parties will find a solution to the existing political stagnation on their own. The deficit of trust is so wide that no side is willing to blink. It is sad but true that without Indian intervention, the current mess is not going to get sorted out. India needs to act immediately. If the current political system that relies on India’s “stabilizing” role breaks down, there will be an undeclared civil war in the country. The best way to salvage the current situation is by cutting a deal with Pushpa Kamal Dahal. And, this is the best time to do that. Get the most out from his unquenchable thirst for power. Dangle the prime ministerial lollypop in front of him and make him agree to things like dissolution of the infamous Young Communist League, and return of seized property. If he does not agree to that, bargain for inclusion of the smallest possible number of Maoist combatants in the security forces. Given the power-hungry nature of Dahal, this is the best time to get concessions on many important issues, which if not resolved soon, pose greater threat to peace, stability and democracy.<br /><br />Expedite the process and get it done within a couple of months. In the meantime, someone else can head the government to satisfy Dahal’s narcissistic ego. Once the weapons are firmly under the government’s control, PLA integration issue is amicably settled and the YCL is disbanded, Dahal can head the national unity government where all parties in then expired constituent assembly will be incorporated based on their respective strengths. It may be a tall order but worth pursuing. Establishing a national unity government by making Dahal first deliver on pertinent issues is the only safest way to get out of this current mess.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-72302020708241891072010-04-13T12:53:00.002-04:002010-04-13T12:56:59.866-04:00India's diminishing options<div style="text-align: justify;">In his signature speech last week at Khulla Manch, Pushpa Kamal Dahal said what lower rung Maoists leaders have been tirelessly regurgitating since then: There could be no peace or constitution as long as Madhav Kumar Nepal’s (MKN) government is in place. But more important to ponder upon is what he shied away from saying. There can be no peace or constitution as long as MKN’s government is there does not mean that Dahal will allow his own party to join the government as a coalition member or support someone else to head the government. What Dahal meant is that for peace to be restored and constitution to be drafted by the stipulated date, he should be allowed to form the government.<br /><br />Given India’s reluctance to let Dahal get back to the corridors of power and Dahal’s own stance of non-cooperation in constitution making unless he is allowed back, it is almost certain that the constitution will not be promulgated within the stipulated timeframe. It is unfortunate that millions of tax payers’ money has been already spent for the two-year deadline which will most likely be missed.<br /><br />Besides India, several Nepali political parties, whose political base has been cut short do not want the Maoists to come to power. While Pushpa Kamal Dahal wants deliverance of peace and constitution on his terms, and only if and when he is allowed to head the government, other players too have not given up their claims to rule the nation altogether. Strangely, their authority to rule the nation comes not from their ability to establish good governance, maintain law and order, or bring peace, but from the political polarization resulting from rapidly degrading relationship between the Maoist party and India. The Maoists’ gross miscalculation of the consequences of vilifying India proved to be costlier than they expected. It is not to say that India is in a better position when it comes to realizing its security interests in Nepal. It, too, is in a tight spot.<br /><br />India knows that MKN’s government is incompetent but there are no viable alternatives for it to tap into. The minute it dislodges the current government and puts together another one under the leadership of a non-leftist leader, it is almost certain to trigger migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist party. This will make the number game politics being played out to keep the Maoists at bay very unpredictable. The last thing India would want to do is go after politicians who has stooped to the level of forging travel documents for reimbursement to keep the government of its liking intact.<br /><br />The existing political stagnation cannot last for ever. How politics will unfold in the coming days and months will largely depend on how far the Maoists and India are willing to go to seek an upper hand. While Maoists have the indoctrinated foot soldiers, battle hardened guerillas, and sympathy of the poor and ethnic minorities, India has the money. Top leaders of the major political parties, whose popular base has been cut short, and hence, have to rely on India’s benevolence to have any significance. But most importantly, India has Nepali Army in its grip, which after the Maoists’ attempt to sack its previous chief and reluctance in extending the tenure of eight brigadiers has found a savior in the Indian establishment. Given India’s reluctance to put together a democratic alliance to fight out the Maoists surge in Nepal makes it clear that India has realized the transaction costs of putting together such an alliance and maintaining it will cost higher than letting the controlled instability reign. India might have come to a conclusion that getting the Nepali Army out of the barrack, if and when the Maoists go berserk is more cost-effective with guaranteed outcome than investing in Nepali politicians, whose allegiance are often questionable.<br /><br />There is no doubt that the Maoists should reform before they are allowed to head or join the government. They need to heed to the promises made in the past. Return the seized properties and dissolve the para-military structure of its youth wing the Young Communist League (YCL). Expecting their moderation after they join the government would be purely daydreaming. The moderation of radicals while in power has never happened in the world history. Had this historical fact been acknowledged and dealt upon accordingly in the past, the Maoist party today would have been a more disciplined and sober political force.<br /><br />Taming the Maoists at this juncture is extremely difficult because Pushpa Kamal Dahal needs indoctrinated foot soldiers, dogmatists, and battle hardened YCL more than ever, as he has lost the support of India, a major player and the “decider” of who remains in power and who does not in Nepal. Given Dahal’s dubious character, India wants him to first fulfill the promises he made in the past and tame dogmatists within his party, whom he has been subtly portraying as lunatics lurking in the background, ready to go blow their top any moment. To Dahal’s dismay, the very things that India wants him to do before allowing him to get back to power are things that will make him unpopular and may be irrelevant in front of the mass that made him what he is today. Dahal had the real opportunity to defang the dogmatists while in power but the train has already left the platform. Dahal will continue to play a “rebel rouser” for his political survival if nothing else.<br /><br />As far as India is concerned, it too does not have many options at hand. Citizens do not have an indefinite appetite for incompetence. Sometime down the road, people will eventually get fed up with the current government, whose ministers are forging documents to claim reimbursement. There is a limit to nonsense. It cannot go on for ever. And, when that day arrives, the ground will have swollen in favor of the Maoists. Dahal may then very well use that golden opportunity to make his men do what the opposition recently did in Kyrgyzstan. If and when that fateful day comes, there is very little that the politicians now in power or the Army that India is banking on to safeguard its interest will be able to do. In the process of taming Pushpa Kamal Dahal, we should not be challenging narcissism.<br /><br />The safest way to avert impending crisis is by keeping Dahal and other power hungry Maoists engaged. Re-run of what the Maoists did with GPK will do the trick. It is advisable to lure Dahal with power and somehow make him fulfill the promises he made in the past. Once that happens, other political parties will be in a better position to challenge the Maoists both on the ground and on ballot boxes. It is important to create that situation if peace and stability is what India really wants in Nepal.<br /></div>Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1490010045302653742.post-21039861625841234232010-03-29T10:50:00.001-04:002010-03-29T10:50:48.734-04:00Setting the Record Right<div style="float: left; margin-right: 10px;"> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-3069964176811472"; google_language="en"; google_ad_width = 120; google_ad_height = 240; google_ad_format = "120x240_as"; google_ad_type = "text_image"; google_color_border = "F0F1F2"; google_color_bg = "ffffff"; google_color_link = "515151"; google_color_text = "333333"; google_color_url = "008000"; //--> </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"></script><script src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/expansion_embed.js"></script><script src="http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/test_domain.js"></script><script>google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);</script>Scores of people have written about Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK) since his demise. From incidents such as the flight that they took together with GPK to the advice that they gave him were meticulously recollected in order to highlight their association. Strangely, people did not hesitate to reap creative mileage from his death. Instead of sincerely highlighting his achievements and fallacies, which is important to set the record straight, they used the opportunity to toot their own horns. The rarest and the biggest example of duplicity came from none other than the Maoist duo Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai. It was quite obnoxious to learn that the Maoists duo that lured him with presidency, but eventually double-crossed him in the last minute, considered his passing away as a demise of a guardian. Hypocrisy at its best!<br /><br /></div> GPK might not be anywhere near in terms of moral virtues that Mahatma Gandhi had or selflessness that Nelson Mandela practices, but to fight relentlessly for democracy for decades is not something that everyone can or will be willing to do. One may argue that living in the proximity of one of the world’s greatest socialist thinkers like B P Koirala could have planted the virtues of democracy in a megalomaniac, but understanding virtues of democracy alone is not enough when it comes to making democracy work for the common men, which is what happened in the case of GPK. I am not particularly enthused at discussing GPK’s checkered past, considering that he is no more with us and that culturally we avoid talking about someone’s shortcomings after their demise. But, in weighing his achievements and fallacies, I find it important that between the eulogies, the unending praises and the references to GPK as a “maverick” that we take a moment to step away and be just to history. Revisionist history, especially in matters that may frame the future of modern Nepal, can be harmful, and, hence, must be avoided at all costs.<br /><br />Making mistakes is human. In between birth and death, certain things are bound to happen one of them being mistakes. Like everyone else, GPK had his share. What sets his mistakes apart from common men’s is that they could have impacted the dreams of millions of Nepalis clamoring for a just, prosperous, and peaceful Nepal. They could have had far reaching consequences. Political pundits that churned out articles left and right after GPK’s demise made an interesting argument about what would Nepal be like had GPK not stood for democracy? But that is only one side of the coin. Given the fact that he had already achieved what he fought for the good part of his life through restoration of democracy in 1990, his ability to provide democratic dividends to the citizenry also needs to be evaluated—thoroughly.<br /><br />Given the international goodwill he enjoyed and respect he commanded at home, at least in the early days of restoration of democracy, what would have Nepal looked like had he understood the importance of intra-party democracy, strengthening of institutions, quelling political corruption, enhancement of social justice and equality, and strict handling of the process of mainstreaming the Maoists, to name a few?<br /><br />GPK ruthlessly destroyed the political career of his contemporaries. Ganesh Man Singh and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s political careers were cut short to promote his own. Had he allowed intra-party democracy to take root, NC would not have been left with just mediocre leaders that they have today. The party does not have a dynamic leader that can effectively energize the base, forget about energizing the nation and bringing it together. Intra-party democracy fosters emergence of competent leaders. When GPK became the prime minister in 1991 for the first time, the current president of the United States was a visiting Law and Government Fellow at the University of Chicago Law School. None beyond his family and friend circle really knew him. It is the transparent intra-party political system that allowed an African-American man and the son of a single mother with limited means to become the president of the most powerful nation on earth. Given the role that intra-party democracy has on the emergence of a leader, can we truthfully ignore what he did to perpetuate his hegemony within NC and its implications on the emergence of future leaders?<br /><br />GPK repeatedly inducted people implicated for political corruption in his cabinet. Instead of using people like Pradeep Giri, whose potential to this date remains unexplored, he repeatedly chose to be surrounded by the same herd irrespective of their fading public persona. This led the emergence of a political caste – a sort of Brahminical caste. His turning of blind eye to massive political corruption ultimately created an ethical disequilibrium as the lines between good and evil thinned. It had a disastrous consequence on the moral fabric of the nation. Corruption trickled down to courtrooms, which is the last thing that a young nation struggling to remain requires. Dozens of judges are currently under investigation for corruption charges. We, as a nation, have been slipping in all indicators related to good governance, accountability, corruption, and this is not an effect of a single overnight incident. It a ripple effect of institutional failure resulting from letting the corrupt herd manipulate the system to their advantage.<br /><br />Importance of social justice and equality never got GPK’s attention. The practice of nominating a handful of politicians belonging to ethnic minorities for important ministerial and other important positions to showcase ethnic equality, which had been the norm during the Panchayat era, continued unabated. When the time came to recognizing equality eventually, he signed an agreement with groups from a particular region, which was dead wrong. What the nation needs today is a comprehensive equality policy, not the oiling of squeaky wheels.<br /><br />One of GPK’s greatest failures was not to understand the real intentions of the Maoists. They made him sleepwalk tirelessly to fulfill their own agendas and double-crossed him when it came to fulfilling their promise of supporting him for the first president of Nepal. His unabated appeasement of the Maoists created more problems than it solved. Whether his judgment was clouded by his failure to understand that appeasement never brings peace or by the Maoists coordinated lewd acts carried out in concert with his inner coterie shall always remain a subject of speculation.<br /><br />When it comes to the prospects of democratic consolidation, he left the nation far worse off than the one he had inherited in 1991. He had a ‘clean slate’ back then. He could have utilized the opportunity to build and strengthen institutions, nurture the rise of competent politicians by promoting intra-party democracy, extract the loyalty of citizenry through big social reforms and comprehensive equality policy, and contain the decay of law and order through strict handling of the Maoists. We might have been better off compared to where we would have been otherwise, but we are way behind from what we could have achieved had GPK been a more thoughtful and visionary persona. GPK was really good at seizing the opportunity, but when it came to translating them into success for all, that is where he failed, and failed miserably. He has left us a country, where the promise of the dividends of democracy and the resultant expectation of it by Nepalis remain illusory.Dr. Hari Bansha Dulalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071176096500640181noreply@blogger.com1