Shameless power struggle

The political parties continue to foist ugly power struggle on an unwilling and ailing nation. It is very unlikely that the ongoing power struggle will end with the sixth round of prime ministerial election slated for Sept 5. The struggle will not end, not because it cannot, if sincere effort is made, but because the stakes are too high for the parties involved. Nepali Congress (NC) does not want Puspa Kamal Dahal to become the PM for a very simple reason. Once Dahal gets back to the power, it will be virtually impossible to edge him out. With the strength that Dahal has in the Constituent Assembly, money his fellow proletariats have made after coming over ground, and the muscle power that he has kept intact by not agreeing to the integration plan proposed by the ruling coalition members, NC with its dwindling base has more than enough reasons to play safe. Besides that, NC’s politicians that have gotten shamelessly used to taking turns in enjoying power without facing the electorate, genuinely think that it is their turn to rule the country.

For the Maoists, the situation is equally tricky. Dahal and his fellow comrades very well understand that whoever becomes the Prime Minister now will oversee the expiration of the CA. They will have no bargaining power that they enjoy now once the CA expires, all bets will be off. The transformation of image, from murderous guerillas to elected politicians has been a glorious one. Power, prestige, and money that came with the transformation of image are not things that the Maoists would want to lose. Going back to jungles is, thus, not an option anymore, no matter how hard they try to lie about it. They want more power, not less. And, they will keep holding the nation hostage one way or the other till they get what they want.

As far as Jhala Nath Khanal is concerned, he has no option but to operate under the guise of neutrality. The pace with which political and security situation is worsening in the country, he very well understands that he might not have another chance in the future. For now, playing at the hands of the Maoist comrades very well serves his purpose and there is very little K P Oli and Madhav Nepal can do about it. Pushing Khanal too hard may result in getting him even closer to the Maoists, which obviously Oli and Nepal do not want. Madhav has already become the Prime Minister, but for Oli, that dream is still alive, and in order to fulfill that, he needs his party to remain intact. If courting external force alone was enough, politicians of fringe parties would have become PM long ago. Oli is seasoned enough to understand that reality. So, for Oli, there is very little that he can do at this point in time than letting Khanal continue his quest for premiership under the veil of neutrality.

The problem, however, is not limited to domestic struggle over power. It runs way too deep. Like domestic political forces, international forces, too, are also trying hard to out-compete each other. The quest for control has gotten so fierce that India has engaged itself to such a level that it has started micromanaging things in Nepal. Increased Indian activities have alarmed China. Recent flurry of visits by Chinese officials clearly hints that China is definitely not happy about bloated Indian presence in Nepal. Besides, India and China, which happen to have the biggest interest in having Nepal in their sphere of influence, there are other Western forces that have significant interest in Nepal. Multiple external actors with both covert and overt interest and their support to warring sides have brought the political process to a grinding halt.

While both domestic and external struggle for control over Nepal is getting uglier and deadlocked, there is something else that is happening in Nepal. The state is slowly but certainly inching toward collapse. The industrial sector is bleeding to death due to a daily eight-hour power cut and the militant activities of the Maoists’ labor union. More than 300 industries, mostly small and medium ones, are believed to have shut their gates for good. When the entire world is progressing from industrialization, Nepal is wriggling backward. The dependency on subsistence agriculture is increasing. The only ray of hope is foreign employment. But putting too much faith on it will not get us anywhere. Had remittance been answer to domestic growth, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other leading labor exporting countries would have been first world nations long time ago.

The decay in security situation is equally alarming. Some 10,000 illegal small arms are believed to be floating around in the capital alone. If this is the situation in the capital city, what it would be like to live in hinterlands, where the state’s authority has completely eroded? In order to buy-in popular support, political parties, especially the Maoist, pushed social mobilization to such a dangerous level that it has out-stripped institutional capacity. The level of sophistication and impunity with which land sharks operate in the country and radical communists that pretend to be playing by the norms of democracy confiscate private property says all about the power of the institutions on the ground. Both personal and political freedom of citizens has been severely curtailed. For citizens, the collapse of the state is an abstraction. It has already happened.

The chaos will further worsen if strong action is not taken immediately. The problem, however, is that there is no institution in Nepal that sees itself as the bulwark against worsening chaos. The president has so far been reluctant to send even a strong signal. He seems content hosting dinners for foreign dignitaries and gracing religious functions. The only bold step he took after he took office was the reinstatement of Rookmangud Katwal as the army chief. The time has come again that he steps forward and does the needful. The first thing in his to-do list should be the dissolution of this worthless CA. Even the partisan hacks now acknowledge that this CA will not draft the constitution, so what’s the point in wasting tax payers’ money in feeding fraudulent sharks? Dissolve the CA and demine the field by putting criminals behind bars. The election date should come along with the dissolution notice, or else, these very politicians that have been making a mockery of democracy will try to paint the president as a dictator. Contentious agendas such as the federal structure should be put on the ballot.

It is important to put an end to the manipulative politics that Dahal and his fellow comrades are engaged in and force politicians of moderate political parties that have mastered the shameless art of backdoor dealings to face the electorate. Enough is enough!

Way out

Finally, the politicians are acknowledging that constitution will not be drafted by May 28. However, they are yet to acknowledge their personal responsibility in the failure. Everyone has their scapegoat ready. If you are someone with a radical bent, by now you must be convinced that it is the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML’s fault. For the NC and CPN-UML sympathizers, it is all because of the Maoists lack of interest in drafting the constitution. Finger pointing and the blame game will continue for a while.

With the chances of promulgating the constitution by May 28 getting slimmer with each passing day, some politicians and pundits have already started floating the idea of extending the deadline. The deadline should not be extended for two reasons. First, rewarding incompetence is a horrible idea. It would set a wrong precedence. The absence of an adequate mechanism to reward the competent and, as a corollary, weed out the incompetent, is perhaps the most important factor that discourages talented youngsters from joining politics. Second, the politicians have promised heaven and earth to the people. In order to garner support, the Maoists and mushrooming ethnic parties have promised rights and resources to every ethnic group that they found would benefit them. They genuinely think that pursuing ethnic agenda will politically profit them down the road. Given the fact that the Maoists and ethnic parties are not going to budge on ethnic agenda, the NC, UML, and other smaller parties of yesteryears, frankly do not see room for negotiations. Giving in to the Maoist and ethnic parties’ demands means constricting their own base. So it is not the lack of time but refusing to rise above petty party interests that has stalled the drafting of constitution.

For a viable constitution to be drafted, there has to be a minimum understanding between the major political parties. In the current adversarial environment, reaching any kind of consensus looks almost impossible. Therefore, instead of pushing for an extension of the deadline, what is needed now is a real sincere push toward the creation of an environment, whereby a constitution that is acceptable to the majority of the population can be drafted. It is not enough that we have a constitution. There has to be a consensus on the need to honor the one that we will eventually end up having. Or else, the very people engaged in drafting it will start running away from it as fast as their legs can carry them.

It is important to lessen the hostilities and create an environment suitable for consensus. In order to create that environment, we need to have a national unity government. But before the national unity government is put in place, there should be an all-party agreement on contentious issues that derailed the possibility of having the constitution on time in the first place. With the rise of the possibility of getting into the government, politicians will be more willing to make compromises. As a regional power, and more than that, as the one that orchestrated and solemnized the marriage between the democratic forces and the radical communists, which was sure to end up in a nasty divorce not due to the ideological differences but due to the equal greed for power, India has the biggest role to play in bailing Nepal out of the current mess. It is not just because cleaning one’s mess is a moral imperative, but also because a rogue neighbor can be a pain in the neck. With Pakistan to its west and Bangladesh to its east, the last thing India wishes for is a rogue neighbor to its north.

The problem that India has when it comes to dealing with Nepal’s perpetual mess, which is partly of its own making, is that its script is often like a B-grade Bollywood movie. It appears promising in the beginning but soon falls apart. What is needed is a tight script and professional directorial venture that very well takes into consideration the dubious nature of the characters. First and foremost, it is important to understand where these characters come from, where they stand, and what they want to achieve at the end of the day. If one is to look closely, it becomes very evident that all of them want the same thing, ie, power.

In their quest for power, the Maoists want to subvert the rule of the majority through mass mobilization. They basically want to paralyze the government through their urban-centric uprising. While the Maoists want to inculcate a sense of fear among the people and paralyze the government, which they think will eventually pave their path to power, the non-Maoist parties, especially the bigger ones, want to portray the Maoists’ urban-centric uprising as a prelude to government takeover. The Maoists are not that stupid to take over power forcibly like some NC and UML politicians seem to suggest. They know it very well that it is not feasible to capture the state and run it in a fragmented political landscape like the one we are presently in. NC and UML leaders have their own interests in portraying the Maoists as dictators in making, which does have some truth to it though. They want to use it as a basis to justify their right to remain in power indefinitely.

It is almost impossible that political parties will find a solution to the existing political stagnation on their own. The deficit of trust is so wide that no side is willing to blink. It is sad but true that without Indian intervention, the current mess is not going to get sorted out. India needs to act immediately. If the current political system that relies on India’s “stabilizing” role breaks down, there will be an undeclared civil war in the country. The best way to salvage the current situation is by cutting a deal with Pushpa Kamal Dahal. And, this is the best time to do that. Get the most out from his unquenchable thirst for power. Dangle the prime ministerial lollypop in front of him and make him agree to things like dissolution of the infamous Young Communist League, and return of seized property. If he does not agree to that, bargain for inclusion of the smallest possible number of Maoist combatants in the security forces. Given the power-hungry nature of Dahal, this is the best time to get concessions on many important issues, which if not resolved soon, pose greater threat to peace, stability and democracy.

Expedite the process and get it done within a couple of months. In the meantime, someone else can head the government to satisfy Dahal’s narcissistic ego. Once the weapons are firmly under the government’s control, PLA integration issue is amicably settled and the YCL is disbanded, Dahal can head the national unity government where all parties in then expired constituent assembly will be incorporated based on their respective strengths. It may be a tall order but worth pursuing. Establishing a national unity government by making Dahal first deliver on pertinent issues is the only safest way to get out of this current mess.

Lessons from Bhutto’s Assassination

Benazir Bhutto gave her life for the sake of democracy in Pakistan. Was it worth it? Absolutely yes. Could she have averted her untimely death? You bet. All she had to do is, resort to a deal-based politics like the one that is being practiced in Nepal. She could have averted her assassination by allowing murderous assassins to dictate the course of her country. Her fault: she tried swimming against the tide of religious fanaticism. She courted death in order to regain political space lost to the fundamentalists, unlike in Nepal, where the so-called democrats are selling out ideology and democratic principles for the sake of political survival.

Bhutto, unlike our own "mainstreamers," refused to join hands with ideologues and religious fanatics in Pakistan. She rather chose to fight against them in order to make Pakistan a true democratic state. After living in the United States and the United Kingdom, she must have known the difference between living in a "liberal democracy" and the country held hostage by radicals. In a liberal democracy, for example India, a catholic woman from Italy is accepted and trusted to run the show. Whereas in society infested by political ideologues and religious fanatics—Pakistan—, daughter of the very soil fighting for people's freedom and democracy gets gunned down. Ideologically bankrupt politicians of Nepal should try to understand what the ultimate price could be if the brainwashed ideologues that embrace Mao's ideological fanaticism remain unchecked and are allowed to infest our society. Benazir's assassination holds grave lessons and warnings for Nepal.

Be it Mao's ideological fanaticism, which is embraced by the Maoists in Nepal or Bin Laden's brand of "Islamofascism" practiced by the religious fanatics in Pakistan, they are equally dangerous for liberal democracy. Religious and political fanaticism and liberal democracy do not go together. In Pakistan, with Bhutto's assassination, religious fanatics have succeeded in uprooting the seedlings of democracy completely. Whereas in Nepal, political fanaticism practiced by the Maoists and replicated by the groups led by secessionists such as Jay Krishna Goit and Nagendra Paswan have greatly reduced prospects of democratic consolidation. The chances of democratic consolidation appear bleaker than ever.

Out of many factors that propelled the rise of political fundamentalism in Nepal, the most important one is repeated subversion of democratic process by the political elites. The constant manipulation of people and the political processes by political gladiators has pauperized the society and wallowed the people in abject poverty. Needless to say, the never ending episodes of deal making in the dark corridors never allowed the country to escape from political instability and a cyclical legitimacy crisis.

Besieged by a multitude of hostile forces, the politicians in Nepal are politically insecure. They are so completely engrossed in the struggle for political survival that they want to subvert the genuine political processes. One recent example of such cowardice is Madhav Nepal's disclosure in Biratnagar. He wants the SPA to 'reserve' seats for top SPA leaders during the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA) polls. What a mockery of democratic rights of people of Nepal.

Madhav Nepal's recent statement makes it clear that there are many politicians in the so-called mainstream political parties who want to construct a "kleptocratic" regime in which they can steal from the citizens, deceive and undermine them, even though they need them to survive politically. Don't you think these air-headed idiots need a basic course on rights of voters in democracy?

Two years after bringing down an autocratic monarch to his knees, Nepal continues to grapple with complex challenges of national reconciliation, national reconstruction, economic reform, and democratic consolidation. Sad but true, the citizenry is still anxious to see and enjoy the dividends of democracy. The political insincerity of the SPA and the Maoists have bogged down the democratic process to such a degraded level that only those who can muster and unleash enough violence and control the institutions of state can win the political wars for power.

The insensitive and autocratic monarch is sure to go. He deserves the axe that has fallen on his head, no doubt about it. People should face consequences for their actions/inactions. Only then they will start behaving like rational beings. Furthermore, what values can a shrewd king and his rowdy son add to the process of democratic consolidation in Nepal?

That said, let me make it clear that the route that the SPA has taken to unseat Gyanendra is dead wrong. It reflects political vendetta more than anything else. Deciding the fate of an institution through constitutional adventurism is a horrendous idea. The SPA should have allowed people to decide the fate of monarchy in Nepal. This is mainly because one of the major factors responsible for political instability in Nepal is the failure of the political elites to sufficiently adhere to the basic tenets of democracy and constitutionalism.

Nepal is notoriously emerging as a country where nothing works. Inability to embrace a workable political system stems from the opportunism and lack of vision of the politicians like Madhav Nepal within the SPA. They remain bereft of viable political ideology on which the nation's political future can be anchored. This bankruptcy in ideology and vision has made the SPA look more like a syndicate than a political alliance dedicated towards fulfilling peoples' desire for peace, stability, and democracy.

Today, both in Pakistan and Nepal, democracy is put on trial by brainwashed radicals. In Pakistan, by assassinating Benazir Bhutto, to some extent "Islamofacists" have succeeded in aborting democratic dreams. There is a big probability that both Pakistan and Nepal will end up as illiberal democracies. But Pakistanis have at least a reason to be satisfied. They had a leader, Benazir, who gave her life fighting for democracy. She at least tried to save the nation from falling into the hands of radicals unlike our own so-called democrats who have flushed ideology and democratic principles down the toilet for political survival.

The basic difference between Bhutto and the so-called democrats in Nepal is that, Bhutto believed in the tenets of democracy. Unlike pseudo-democrats in Nepal, she knew that fanaticism and democracy do not go hand-in-hand. She never acted as a "useful idiot" at the hands of radicals like our politicians in Nepal. She always adhered to democratic principles and had vowed to wipe them out. Scared to death, radicals had no choice but to assassinate her.

While our own Girija Prasad Koirala, who has given everything but his beloved prime ministerial chair to the Maoist radicals, is awaiting a natural death (whose death, I doubt, will be of any inspiration to those who truly believe in liberal democracy in Nepal and abroad), Bhutto died a hero, a martyr and an inspiration for many both at home an abroad. While Pakistanis are mourning the loss of their beloved and revered leader Benazir, we, the Nepali people are forced to watch painful sale of our democratic dreams.