Blog for Inclusive Democracy in Nepal

BRB, BIPPA & Beyond

2011-11-22T14:45:00.002-05:00

Baburam Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has drawn mixed reactions. For foreigners without any stake in Nepal’s internal affairs, his Cinderella run from a battle-hardened radical ideologue to a democratically elected prime minister is a fascinating story. At home, the most cheerful is the middle class that has gotten utterly frustrated with the politicians who have been tirelessly fleecing from state coffers by extending their terms in office.

The bar of expectation on government’s deliveries has sunk so low that even the raids on sweet shops bring cheer. One thing is for sure: Bhattarai’s ascendency to power has brought desperate optimism in the middle class. It is basically a reflection of the fact that people have been through a lot in the last one and half decade, and now look forward to better times. They desperately want to believe that, under Bhattarai’s rule, life will be good—they want it, they need it, and above all, they think they deserve it.

Many seriously believe that he is the one who will dig us out of deep economic and insecurity hole we are in, even though in their hearts and minds, they know that desperate optimism cannot be the answer to our misery. The desperate optimists are pinning their hopes on populist rhetoric rather than reality. If you scrape away Bhattarai’s populist rhetoric, you will find a very different image of the man. First of all, he is one among many who raised arms against the inefficacies of the democratic system, which he himself is now manipulating to the core to remain in power. Remember how he justified the need for the largest cabinet in history by calling it coalition compulsion? And he is yet to confess he was naïve enough to believe and fight for establishing a radical communist state. Or was it a calculated strategy to carve a bigger political role for himself and his fellow comrades because the opportunity costs of doing so was extremely low? Don’t we, as a nation, deserve to know who he really is?

Bhattarai, for sure, is a shrewd politician. No one in the domestic politics knows better than Bhattarai how to sway public opinion. In dirt poor nations basking in the glory of communist ideology like ours, people always love “relief packages”. Instead of coming up with measures that would ensure market competition in the private sector, which would automatically ensure the prices of goods and services, Bhattarai does what his Red Book heroes did and continue to do in Cuba and North Korea—dole-out relief packages without being responsible for balancing the books. Window dressing of the problems of very serious nature can only lead to the crumbling of the state foundation. Does Bhattarai remember how fiscal irresponsibility, among other things, bankrupted the former communist states which then crumbled under their own weight?

Bhattarai knows very well that, in order for him to remain at the top of the ruling class, he will have to earn the trust of Madesis, middle-class Paharis and India. Dalits and ultra poor, whose sensibilities have been aroused to the maximum, are already with the Maoist party. Keeping the former happy is not a big deal. The ethnic entrepreneurs from the Tarai are only too happy to settle for plum ministerial berths instead of asking for large scale infrastructure and industrial investments that would create jobs and eventually uplift the state of downtrodden. Bhattarai has figured out that as long as they have an opportunity to buy gold, ethnic emancipation is going great guns. As far as the middle-class Paharis are concerned, small thing here and there, for example, raiding sweet shops and subsidizing liquid petroleum gas will keep them happy and content.

In a country where politicians are increasingly perceived as scoundrels, window dressing with austerity measures like riding Mustang will continue to be appreciated. Who cares whether there are revenue streams to pay for the so-called progressive programs? It is all about revealing grand intentions rather than showing how these grand intentions will actually be translated into sustainable practical actions and paid for. They are never audited. Listening to people’s plight will make their heart lighter but getting their plight addressed is what people are more interested in. Has anybody, including the media, actually looked into how many of the grievances made through “Hello Sarkar” actually been addressed?If it was not for India’s heavy lifting to get the Tarai-based ethnic parties back together, Bhattarai would not have become the prime minister, at least not now. For India, Bhattarai was the logical choice amongst the Maoists because of his unflinching willingness to tack their line. Plus, by promoting Bhattarai the Indian establishment seriously believes that the internal struggle within the Maoist party will reach a peak and cause a vertical split. For India, the Maoist party is too big and too unpredictable to handle and Bhattarai is their last best bet.

Through BIPPA, Bhattarai has scored brownie points with the biggest force that he needs on his side to remain in power and politically relevant in Nepal. On principle, there is nothing wrong in signing BIPPA. Without investment guarantee, none would like to invest in a country where brainwashed hotheads can randomly shut down operations of any industry. But in reality who are these people that are threat to investments in Nepal? They are none other than people who Bhattarai and the likes got into believing that foreign investment is actually a threat to native investment and indigenous entrepreneurship. It is altogether a different thing that these hotheads have gotten sophisticated in extorting money using ideology as a cover. Instead of tightening the grip on the people he himself once trained, Bhattarai has rather decided to pay to Indian investors from state’s coffer. Can anyone think of a better way of shifting the cost and avoiding intra-party backlash? See the brilliance!

Address ethnic grievances

2011-01-17T09:32:00.001-05:00

Nepal´s politics is famous for ugly feuds for power and vertical splits. Virtually every political party suffers from factionalism. While the larger parties like Nepali Congress (NC), the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML), and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) are barely holding on, the Madhes-based parties are withering faster than anybody could have imagined a while ago.

One of the reasons why the factions within the larger parties do not dare to walk out from the parent party may have to do with already divided political space and political apathy that is out there. But when it comes to the Madhes-based parties, which either ballooned (read Madhesi Janadhikar forum) or was created (read Tarai Madhesh Democratic Party) to benefit from rising ethnic sentiments, there is nothing that glues politicians that deserted their previous party to join or form the Tarai based parties. In the case of major political parties like the NC, UML, UCPN (Maoist), ideology binds people together, albeit loosely. In the case of the Tarai-based parties, it is increasingly becoming clear that they flocking together was purely because of the perceived political opportunity.

The ongoing disintegration of the Tarai-based parties is more dangerous than many think. It would be quite naive to expect that ethnic uprising, which the nation witnessed in 2006 as a result of high level of marginalization in the society, will not take place again. As a matter of fact, with the seed of ethnic hatred already sown, half of the work toward instigating ethnic violence is already done. There is no reason to believe otherwise that the opportunists that deserted parties that they belonged to before the Tarai uprising to join or form the Tarai-based parties and who have now been walking away from them, will not further stoke ethnic divisions to mobilize support and use that support for instigating violence. Violent ethnic conflicts always serve ethnic-entrepreneurs. Muslim identities in Bosnia after Bosnian civil war became much stronger than they used to be.

Governments’ apathy towards creating equal opportunity has provided a space for ethnic-entrepreneurs to benefit from ethnic grievances. Fearon and Laitin (2011) looked at 139 civil wars during 1945–2008. They found 79, or 57 percent to be “ethnic” and another 24 or 17 percent to be mixed or what they call ambiguously “ethnic.” What is even more disturbing is that while 53 percent of the 17 civil wars breaking out in the years 1945–49 were ethnic, for the next six decades, the corresponding percentages are 74, 71, 67, 81, 83, and 100 (for 2000–08). These ethnic wars happened not just only because that the governments were insensitive but also because many saw an opportunity to benefit from ethnic violence.

Ethnic violence is more likely in the districts, where ethnic-entrepreneurs succeed in establishing their base. As followers gain access to local institutions through patronage networks that derive electoral gains from communal violence, the propensity of violence will further increase. Belonging to smaller political outfits will not bother them. In a country, where the majority government is unthinkable given the expansion of political representation in the name of inclusion, who needs a bigger party? Small is beautiful and profitable. The likes of Rajendra Mahato can vouch on that.

The real problem in Nepal is that while people belonging to marginalized ethnic groups want equality, those representing them want the marginalization to persist, as they are politically and personally benefiting from it. Hence, the real challenge is to defeat the agenda of the ethnic-entrepreneurs and foster a cohesive subnational community that can on its own generate progressive social policy capable of fostering equality among the citizens.

Even though the ethnic quest for equality is losing its luster because of the wrong people taking up of a very worthy agenda, it is moral responsibility of the ruling elites to work towards making citizens equal. The best place to start would be to introduce a policy that would reduce ethnic income gaps. Income gaps between ethnic groups stoke ethnic divisions. Such a policy was introduced in Malaysia after the race riots of 1969, which has on the whole worked well so far.

The government needs to act swiftly and introduce policies aimed at uplifting the status of ethnic minorities, or else with continued disintegration of regional parties, there will soon be too many ethnic-entrepreneurs resorting to violent means to achieve their political ambitions. In a country where the person that initiated a bloody conflict, which killed more than fourteen thousand people and displaced thousands can become a prime minister, is there really a reason for some ethnic zealot with political ambition to refrain from instigating violence

Will 2011 be any different?

2011-01-03T10:53:00.002-05:00

With the end of a year also comes punditry from the usual suspects that people are often forced to consume. Getting predictions from them, who told us that the Maoists were for multi-party democracy and that the extension of Constituent Assembly (CA) would definitely fetch us a new constitution, is a bit obnoxious but that is the price we all have to pay for being citizens of an unaccountable nation. The one good thing about 2011’s predictions though is that pundits have been a lot more conservative. It is better to come across as an unintelligent person rather than to be proved wrong. Smart move, indeed!

In the absence of reliable predictions, most people are anxious to know what really is in store for the nation this year. But before moving to that, let us look at how 2010 was for certain groups of people. For Madhav Kumar Nepal and his cabinet members, the year could not have been any better. Likewise, for the 601 CA members, who were all for the extension of CA to continue their hard work (pun intended), 2010 was not a bad year either. Land sharks and ethnic entrepreneurs, too, did well for themselves in the past year. Rising land prices and degrading law and order situation provided them with an unthinkable opportunity to fleece both the state and innocent public. Politicians, land sharks, and ethnic entrepreneurs were clearly the winners of 2010 and will continue to remain so unless the existing structure is altered.

For many of the 601 CA members, the year 2010 might have been the luckiest year of their life. Why would they want 2011 to be any different? It is only the general public with fixed incomes and struggling due to rising inflation, rampant corruption and chronic power shortage who want the coming year to be different.

What about the media? Instead of reporting how the helpless Nepali citizens confronting a dysfunctional state felt about the past year and what their expectations are in the new year, the mainstream media did what it does best—fill the newspapers with predictions. Would not Nepal be better off if our journalists and pundits stopped predicting political events and politicians’ behavior and spent quality time analyzing why Nepali politicians behave the way they do and what we can actually do to correct their reckless behavior?

Politicians will not do anything different than what they did in 2010 unless the media and the general public exert pressure on them. Except for the peace assembly that forced the Maoists to end the blockade of the valley, public has been absorbing nonsense, nonstop. The more we put up with that, the more we will get it. The choice is ours. Instead of holding politicians accountable for false claims, the media often ends up regurgitating what politicians claim to be possible. If my memory serves me well, not a single newspaper analyzed the option of holding fresh election when the term of the CA was expiring last May. Instead of looking at the factors that caused inaction in the CA and sincerely analyzing whether or not it was actually possible to have a new constitution from the same set of actors, who appeared more interested in forwarding their own agendas through an extension, the mainstream media joined the political chorus. The prospects of democratic consolidation gets bleak when the media, instead of holding politicians accountable for inaction, helps them get rewarded for it.

Given the situation that the major political parties are in and the limited choice that India has at its disposal, the political stagnation that we witnessed in 2010 will continue to persist, at least till May 28th of 2011. The status-quo is not that bad for politicians as it does not stop the cabinet and 601 CA members from drawing their salaries. Neither does it affect local-level party cadres who are becoming amazingly astute and savvy in dividing commissions among themselves. It is the general public that wants a positive change. For almost half of the population that live on less than $2 a day, living in the most corrupt country in South Asia also means cutting down on basic needs. People have started taking extreme measures as the state is getting increasingly dysfunctional. Families are ending their lives for not being able to foot medical bills.

Citizens can make 2011 better than 2010 if they really want to. It is not going to happen on its own. For that to happen, people will have to do what they did to end the Maoists’ blockade of the valley last year. Unless people exert pressure on politicians and make it clear that nonsense in the name of democracy is unacceptable, there is very little chance that anything positive will happen in 2011. Pundits can, for sure, help people make 2011 better. As political winners and losers have already been picked, how about analyzing ways in which we can make winners act more responsibly and losers play by the rules of the game. Is that too much to ask for?

Fight power outage

2010-12-20T08:25:00.001-05:00

Recently, one of my friend’s younger brothers told me that he is working on finding an employment in Dubai through a manpower agent. I initially laughed it off as a joke as I thought the guy who was doing pretty well for himself running a computer training institute would not leave the country to do some odd job in the Gulf.

Besides, he was supposed to get married in a couple of days. But, as we chatted along, it became quite clear that he was quite serious about his decision to leave the country. I could not understand why someone who had decided to stay put while most of us left the hometown long ago wanted to leave all of a sudden.

Well, crippling power supply may be a mere inconvenience for well-to-do in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country for which many have found solution in inverter and generator but for people like my friend’s brother, it is having a devastating impact on livelihood.

Many politicians, pundits, and bureaucrats have done well for themselves selling the dreams of changing the fate of the nation through hydro dollars. Does promise of transforming Nepal into Switzerland ring a bell? It’s been 20 years since we adopted free-market economy, and in all these years, what dream merchants have done is push the nation further into perpetual darkness. Isn’t 20 years a good time for us to see some positive results? Forget about benefiting from water resources financially, shouldn’t we be at least self-sufficient to meet our own energy needs by now?

The chances of benefiting from selling energy appear bleak. India, which is the primary and the biggest market for Nepal’s energy has already started building nuclear power plants. During the recent visit to India, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has agreed to build two European pressurized reactors of 1,650 megawatts each worth $9.3 billion. It appears that by the time we will be actually able to break the close nexus between hydro-mafia, politicians, and bureaucrats, which does not appear like it will happen anytime soon given the dysfunctional state of the country, and unleash our hydropower potential, India will be nuclear-powered. Even if it needed energy, it will be in a better position to bargain for cheaper price. By then, the so-called jingoists that are now opposing hydropower contracts to Indian companies will have been long gone. But by letting these jingoists have their way, we will have compromised the prospects of future generations benefiting from the economic gains made now through hydropower generation and energy sales.

While the hydro-mafia, politicians in power, bureaucrats, and jingoists stall the progress of the hydropower sector’s development in the country, lack of electricity, which could have been subsidized for poor from the energy sales to the neighboring countries, has hurt lower middle class and poor the most. If we look at the consequences of the energy poverty at the public level, it becomes evident that the lack of electricity is a main problem for poor health and educational outcomes. One of the main problems caused by energy poverty is indoor pollution.

Hundreds of thousands of girls and women of these households that are responsible for cooking suffer from respiratory problems that are caused by an inefficient biomass system used for cooking. Girls and women of a nation, which is only next to Brazil in water resources, certainly deserve a better deal. If these households have the access to subsidized energy, girls and women can use the time they save from collecting biomass fuel used for cooking for studies. The existing gender disparity in educational outcomes would bridge over time. Without a reliable access to electricity, health centers are often forced to treat patients in the dark and to rely on biomass and fuel generator to keep vaccines and medicines usable. For the rich, lack of regular supply of electricity might be a nuisance, but for the poor, to whom remaining healthy and getting decent education is the only way out of poverty, it is one of the major barriers.

In a country, where the government is unable to create jobs for its growing population, lack of secure energy access is limiting the opportunities of growth of the private sector and increasing their costs. For radicals that want to turn the nation into a welfare state, bleeding of the private sector is good news. As the private sector – the only hope for creating jobs for a growing population – fails, there will be more hotheads to recruit. Deep down, radicals and “ethnic-entrepreneurs” do not want the private sector to flourish because they very well know that robust private sector is an engine of growth.

Take India as an example where free market and strong private sector is changing the lives of Dalits, who happen to be at the rock bottom of the pyramid. A study led by Devesh Kapur at Pennsylvania University´s Centre for the Advanced Study of India, which quizzed Dalit households – more than 19,000 – in two clusters of villages in Azamgarh and Bulandshahar, two poor, backward districts in Uttar Pradesh state, clearly show that free market and strong private sector is benefiting Dalits. When asked to compare their material and social conditions now and in 1990 when economic reforms just started in India, Dalits have overwhelmingly reported substantial gain in material status as well as changes in a wide variety of social practices affecting Dalit well-being. Access to capital assets was found to have increased, consumption had become better, and relationship between the Dalits and other castes is undergoing subtle, but substantial changes.

In our case, why would the jingoists and ethnic entrepreneurs that are benefiting politically from the backwardness of Dalits and other ethnic groups care about the hemorrhaging in the private sector? While the jingoists and ethnic-entrepreneurs do not have interest in promoting the sector, the ones that credit themselves of introducing free-market economy in the country have personal interests that they think needs to be fulfilled along with the development of the sector. They are yet to realize what one-and-half decade of chasing personal gains has done to the party’s standing and their personal image. May be, they don’t care about it, as most of their siblings are settled abroad and do not intend to intend to join politics like the children of Indian politicians do. So, why invest in political capital building? Makes perfect sense!

One of the reasons why a selected few have been able to squander Nepal’s hydropower potential is because we let them. Power outage is forced upon citizens of one of the earth’s most water resources-rich nation because we as a nation accept it. People tend to accept unfavorable conditions more readily and this is precisely what greedy opportunists need in order to line their own pockets with the wealth that is supposed to benefit the people. We remain cheated because we are not protective of our fundamental human rights and realize that we deserve the best that life can offer.

Mainstreaming the Maoists

2010-12-06T18:56:00.000-05:00

Six months have already passed since the extension of the term of the constituent assembly (CA) and there has been very insignificant, if any, progress made in terms of drafting the new constitution. It is almost certain that the constitution will not be drafted even within the extended period. The new constitution will not be drafted for a very simple reason, and the reason is that there is no consensus among the major political parties of the ruling coalition and the Maoist party on major issues such as pluralism, federal, and economic development model to name a few.

The ongoing contention over these issues is crucial, because the course of Nepali politics and fate of the politicians on either side of the divide will largely depend upon the kind of society we choose to be and the kind of economic model we embrace. For survival, the coalition members need a pluralistic society with an economic policy that equally promotes the development of all three sectors: Public, private, and cooperative.

On contrary, for the Maoists to thrive, regimented society with a state-led economy is a must. In many ways, the fight over the type of constitution each side wants is an existential battle that each side cannot afford to lose. And, that is where the problem lies. Unless there is a complete defeat or surrender of either side, Nepal is not going to have a new constitution, period! Even if it ended up having a new constitution, the chances of which are extremely slim, it will not be a long-lasting document. The status quo, however, is not only unsustainable but also dangerous. Existing unstable situation will further be aggravated by competitive populism, a dangerous permissiveness that tolerates criminalization of our polity and society and serious erosion of the legitimacy of the state. But breaking free from the status quo is not as simple as we would like it to be. The dysfunctional nature of the legislature and the state has its roots in the nature of our electoral process. The decision to run the circus of 601 people in the name of inclusion is where the problem started.

In a country, where political course of the country is shaped by not more than a dozen politicians, ushering inclusion was not that difficult. Unnecessary ballooning of the legislature has led to both reduced focus and effectiveness of the legislature and the government. What a poor country like Nepal needs is a smart and effective legislature and government that can introduce and implement policies and programs that are pro-people. Just to showcase inclusiveness, we have ended up creating a “loya jirga” (grand assembly) like institution that we see in tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In our case, it is even worse. The chiefs, unlike in Afghanistan and Pakistan, do not bother to show up in the “grand assembly” to solve contentious issues but direct followers to stall the progress.

The politicians belonging to the coalition prefer status quo because being in power helps them maximize their personal gain and minimize personal pain, even though the society at large loses, and is increasingly getting debilitated. The current coalition is an example of dangerously stable equilibrium. By not making any sincere effort toward promoting good governance, the current coalition is actually doing a disservice to its cause and is in a self-destructive mode. In the absence of good governance, the propertied and educated middle and upper classes that have great stakes in democracy, peace, and order will increasingly get disenchanted with the governance process and come to the dangerous conclusion that freedom and democracy are synonymous with chaos and anarchy.

At some point in time down the road, if the status quo continues, the support for authoritarianism that can bring order and peace to the society at any cost will swell, so that they can pursue their economic dreams. If and when that happens, all the bargains and backdoor dealings that have been going on to keep the current government in place will be worthless. In other words, the political parties that are supporting the current government, whose leader is more interested in jetting the globe rather than making a serious effort to solve the nation’s problems, are basically caught between the devil and the deep sea. The smartest way to come out of the current situation, which is self-defeating, is finding a right candidate that can effectively deal with the radical left and govern the nation at the same time.

The mainstreaming of the Maoist party is getting increasingly difficult not because they cannot be mainstreamed but because the path that the ruling coalition has embarked on is dead wrong. The Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and the Tarai based parties that have well adapted to Bihari-styled politics must take cues from the victory of Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister of Bihar. By veering away from caste-based politics and making good governance his main agenda, Mr Kumar has virtually wiped out all his political competitors.

The only way to mainstream the Maoists is by defeating their agenda through good governance. Instead of trying to sell socialist rhetoric, NC, UML, and other major parties should focus on promoting good governance. The larger political problem for the Maoists and the fly in the ointment to their "socialist" mantra is that more and more Nepalis are today looking to government to help with the socioeconomic and law and order challenges facing the country. If the government can solve some of these problems, the Maoist party’s base will automatically deflate. Nothing can be dumber than competing with the Maoists in selling “progressive” dreams. We all know what happened in the last CA election, don’t we?

Time for course correction

2010-11-22T16:06:00.000-05:00

Chickens of “consensus” politics have come home to roost. The manhandling of Finance Minister Surendra Pandey by the Maoist members of parliament is a preview of what the future holds for the politicians of the current coalition, who once endlessly harped on the need for consensus, if the outcomes of the political bargain do not go the Maoists’ way. The footage of the ultra-progressives (read the Maoists) manhandling the less-progressive (the minister from the less-progressive CPN-UML) is just a mouse-click away for the world to see. The timing could not have gotten any better. Pandey got roughed up at a time when the never-ending rounds of elections for the post of prime minister was providing the world a glimpse of how exactly a dysfunctional political system looks like.

As usual, each side is blaming the other for the incident. Anything new in that? Not really. The blame-game has been going on for a while now. Instead of trying to figure out who is at fault, it would be helpful if we spent our time and energy trying to understand why something as serious as this happened inside the parliament. It happened for a simple reason. And the reason is that as a nation, we allow politicians to run the country by cutting deals in the name of consensus. Nobody except the dealmakers actually know the terms and conditions of the deals. So, it is very easy for them to lie about them later. What makes this deal-based process even more complicated is that, for these dealmakers, pleasing their masters (Chinese for the Maoists and Indians for the current coalition members) is much more important and lies at the heart of anything they do or agree to than serving the nation’s interest and fulfilling people’s expectations.

Blaming the Maoists for insincerity at this point in time is completely absurd and unintelligent. The Maoists have been inconsistently consistent throughout about their motive behind joining the hands with the political parties. They wanted to use the opportunity to achieve their goal of establishing the dictatorship of the proletariat. The rationalization of the Maoists’ intent to come overground came from the very politicians that now grouch about the Maoist motives, pundits who change their color faster than chameleons to remain politically-relevant and human right activists that are now nowhere to be seen when a people’s representative is manhandled in broad light inside the parliament. Hence, the wound that politicians of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML complain about is self-inflicted. The sooner they learn to live with it, the better off they will be.

The Maoists are now one of the dominant players of Nepali politics and there is logic to what they do. Every move of theirs is well-calculated and is meant to serve their political agenda. With India against their quest for power, the Maoists have no choice but to tilt the domestic political balance by coercing their political opponents. They want the opponents to be perceived as feeble and power-hungry who will eventually succumb to their bullying tactics. And there is precedence to what they believe in. On the other side, there is no political preparation to tackle the Maoists. All they have is the same old slogan of how big a threat the Maoists are for democracy, which gives them an opportunity to cash in on India’s soured relationship with the Maoists, both of which will not take the coalition very far.

Putting the blame on the Maoists will not serve any purpose when it comes to correcting the course that they are in. The NC and the UML should prove to the people, which they have not done so far, that they can effectively govern the nation and meet people’s expectations. The state’s reach has been shrinking with each passing day. Regurgitation of the same old stale slogan of democracy being in danger from the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula, who not very long ago used every argument that they could think of to justify how bringing the Maoists overground was good for democracy, makes the case that the coalition is trying to make against the Maoists look malicious and empty.

The ongoing small-scale confrontation between the major partners of the coalition and the Maoists will get bigger and more frequent in the days to come. This is just the beginning. The NC, with its new president, can be a game changer if it dares to get away from the influence of the likes of Sitaula that failed miserably to correctly assess the Maoists’ motives. It is time to play the game with the Maoists the way they do. Backdoor dealings with them should be completely stopped. Things as important as budget should be made public with or without the Maoist support. If they oppose, they are the ones that will be seen as obstructionist, and if they get physical, they should end up behind bars. Appeasing the Maoists so far has not gotten the nation anywhere, has it? It is high time that they be held accountable for their acts.

The moving of the political process forward should be done smartly. Staying put in a futile prime ministerial election process makes the NC look like a club of politically-immature jokers. Its obsession with the prime ministership is pushing Jhala Nath Khanal and his fellow comrades closer to Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Helping the UML retain its political base is as important as maintaining its own political space for the NC. The UML’s loss is the Maoists party´s gain. Hence, letting Khanal become the prime minister is politically more profitable for the NC than alienating him by endlessly bidding for Ram Chandra Poudel. Even if Poudel became the prime minister, there will absolutely nothing in this lame duck environment for him to achieve that will change the NC’s face and fate. So, why remain obsessed? Cut your losses by not appearing insensitive to Khanal’s desperation to become the prime minister.

Banking on India’s support and regurgitation of democracy-in-peril rhetoric may work for a while and help the coalition stay put in power for some time, but with China’s support, the Maoist party is hell-bent on tipping the balance. If and when the balance tips, India will have no choice but to reengage with the Maoists. Aung San Suu Kyi received Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding in 1993 from the Indian government, but when the Indian government later on realized that the Burmese junta was not going to release Suu Kyi anytime soon, it started reengaging with the junta that put her under house arrest. Than Swe’s recent gala reception in India and the endless case made by India’s foreign policy experts, including Shyam Saran, about the necessity of becoming pragmatic when it came to dealing with Myanmar’s junta is an example of how far the Indian pendulum can swing with change in domestic political situation. Endless complaints about the Maoists’ anti-democratic acts have not made them change their ways, so it is time you change your ways and do things differently Mr Sushil Koirala. By opting for that, you would be doing a huge both to your party as well as the nation.

Sacrificing animals

2010-10-25T10:27:00.000-04:00

Every year, around Dashain, festival writings and ranting against animal sacrifice get a lot of coverage in media. From little known animal rights activist groups to amateur writers, many jump into anti-sacrifice bandwagon. As Dashain gets over, the noise dies down, gradually. It is really difficult to understand the real motives behind the dissent. Are these groups or individuals really passionate about animal rights or sponsored by external forces that aim to benefit from the portrayal of Hindu religion and culture in bad light or is it coming from anarchists that see progressiveness as everything that is against established norms and rules? Are these people really vegetarian that value life of other beings as their own or opportunists trying to seek some limelight as and when they can? In a country, where dreams are sold (remember “New Nepal” hoopla?) freely without any fear of being held accountable, being cynical at times is perfectly normal, isn’t it?

Animal sacrifice is nothing new. It has been happening for centuries and in all the ancient religions of the world. The ritual of animal sacrifice is seen as a means of getting closer to the almighty. From the Hebrews to the Greeks and Romans and from the Aztecs to the Hindus, ritual killing of an animal has been part of a religion. Moral purists, atheists, opportunists, and limelight seekers question whether ritual killing of animals is right just because it has been practiced for generations? Do they have a point? Absolutely. But are they missing a larger picture? You bet!

What they conveniently forget is the objective behind the religious sacrifice. People sacrificing animals are not religious nuts. The objective of sacrifice is to express gratitude to the almighty. They truly and selflessly believe that by offering our life symbolically to the almighty by offering the sacrifice of an animal, they are in fact expressing their gratitude. Are they right? May be, may be not, but again, who are we to question someone else’s belief system? If their belief affords them comfort, they have all the right and freedom to believe in whatever they want to believe in. Besides, it is their constitutional right to practice their religion.

Sacrificing an animal as long as such animal is not endangered and protected by law would be the same as killing a chicken for McDonalds. As far as the method of killing is concerned, what is torture and what is not is again subjective. Some may believe gulping meat while advocating for animal rights to be more primitive, double standard, and culturally damaging than animal sacrifice practice itself. Are they wrong? Depends upon how you see it. Everyone has a different starting point, a different personality and differing degrees of faith. When it comes to beliefs, debating helps but it will eventually reach the "nihilist threshold." People have beliefs that they simply hold to be true for no other reason than trusting them to be right.

Those that make a hue and cry about animal sacrifice in Nepal somehow try to associate animal rights with killings only. Animal rights is not all about how you kill them. Animals like humans do have rights to live in a free environment. Millions of goats that were sacrificed during the recent Dashain must have enjoyed a better life and a less ignominious death than veal calves, geese, and battery hens that that are kept in cages that are little more than the size of a sheet of A4 paper in Western farms. Animal rights are violated everywhere, irrespective of developmental status.

Advocacy has become a lucrative profession in Nepal. The so-called human rights activists that demeaned the state’s right to defend itself against those that initiated violent bloody insurgency have now pigeon-holed themselves. They do not raise voice against the marauding raids of the Maoists, ethnic hustlers, and criminal gangs that have violated the rights of millions of Nepalis to live freely and pursue their dreams. Rights activist in Nepal have tremendously benefited at the cost of the liquidation of the state.

Populism doesn’t bring real change. For real and long lasting change to happen, there has to be a social and economic basis for it. It is important to understand that still approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line and is illiterate. The state, for them, is virtually non-existent. If they had faith in the state, Pushpa Kamal Dahal would not have had recruits to fight against the state, opportunity to parachute to the parliament, and get away even when he crawls to Kamal Thapa’s residence for votes to become the prime minister. Isn’t change, for which, approximately 14,000 people lost their lives and hundreds of thousands got uprooted visible? Nobody seems to be questioning if the promise for change was worth the sacrifice? The never-ending claims from both the extreme left and the right is nothing but the politics of grievances. But we rather take easy way out and question if the sacrifice of animals is worth it?

Animal sacrifice is not a good practice but it is not happening in vacuum. Belief system drives it. Bemoaning it is of little help and stopping it altogether is outright dangerous. When the state fails, religion and faith help. Already there is enough of bloodshed and anarchy in the country and taking off the religious and cultural lid altogether will make things even worse. Change should be gradual and calibrated, only then it is long-lasting. Indicator-less quest for change will be something like that of the current peace process. Nobody knows where it is going except for the United Nations Mission in Nepal. First of all, economic and social basis for change needs to be established. With education, prosperity, and economic development, people may be more willing to explore other ways to please gods and celebrate religious ceremonies. Till then, energy should be spent towards nation-building, not withering the glue that holds it together.

Two cheers for Nobel laureates

2010-10-11T18:22:00.001-04:00

Every year, six Nobel prizes are awarded for outstanding contributions in the field of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, economics and peace. Except for a few controversies, for the most part, Nobel committees have done an excellent job in awarding deserving candidates. The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to the current United States President Barack Obama, and past US president and vice-president Jimmy Carter and Al Gore respectively drew some flak and prompted accusations of a left-wing bias. But when it comes to controversy, the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho for negotiating a ceasefire between North Vietnam and the United States in January 1973 is so far the most controversial one.

The Norwegian Nobel Committees deserve criticism to a certain degree for overlooking the contributions of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi of India, Václav Havel of Czech Republic, Ken Saro-Wiwa of Nigeria, Corazon Aquino of Philipinnes, Jose Figueres Ferrer of Costa Rica, Feng Shan Ho of China, Steve Biko of South Africa while jointly selecting Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994 for their so-called efforts in making peace between Israel and Palestine. Peace between Palestine and Israel? It is as elusive as it can get.

Except for the prizes in economics, peace, and literature, often, common people cannot relate with things that recipients are awarded the prize for. Contributions in chemistry, physics, and physiology or medicine are often hard for people without sufficient background in these subjects to comprehend. But this year, it is different. There have been pleasant surprises for many armchair Nobel enthusiasts, like myself. The committees, this year, have taken some bold selection decisions, which is sure to enhance the reputation of the Nobel Prize. By deciding to award the Literature Prize to Mario Vargas Llosa of Peru, the Swedish Academy that grants the Nobel Prize in Literature has shown that it is ready to shed its eurocentric image. The Swedish Academy that grants the Nobel Prize in Literature is often accused of eurocentrism.

The list cannot get any better. Among the 2010 Nobel Prize winners, if I were to pick the two most deserving winners, it would be Robert G Edwards for medicine and Liu Xiaobo for peace. It is not to suggest that other winners’ contribution is less important by any means. But the works of Edwards and Xiaobo have greater significance and far-reaching consequences. By spearheading Invitro Fertilization (IVF) creation, Professor Edwards have given a ray of hope to millions of infertile and sub-fertile couples that hope to have biological children of their own. Professor Edwards is the technological father of 4 million people that have been born through IVF procedure so far. They would not be here if it was not for Edwards’ breakthroughs.

In traditional patriarchal society like ours, where women’s status within the household and society is to a large extent attached to her ability to give birth to a child, Edwards’ work is even more relevant. It is not always a woman’s fault if she cannot give birth to a child. Male infertility, which is a reason for almost 50 percent cases of infertility, does not cross peoples’ mind when they see or meet childless couples. Women are the silent victims of male infertility and the state has done very little to address this problem. Professor Edwards’ work has and will help millions of women secure their status within the household and society. With the help of assisted reproductive technology, infertile and sub-fertile couples now have biological child of their own. His work has been crucial for human embryonic stem cell research, as the cells are obtained from embryos left over at infertility clinics. Millions of people suffering from dreadful diseases like Parkinson´s, Alzheimer´s and Lou Gehrig´s are pinning their hope on success of embryonic stem cell research.

Some ethicists from the Catholic Church have questioned the correctness of awarding Nobel Prize to Professor Edwards, whom they think essentially started “playing god.” But in their lopsided moral interpretations of Professor Edwards’ achievement, what they conveniently dodge is the joy and happiness that Edwards’ work brings to the life of sick and poor, toward whom they claim to have moral responsibility. The Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet, which awards the candidates for Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, by selecting Professor Edwards, has sent a strong message that the religious righteousness of some cannot hold scientific progress hostage. Professor Edwards’ selection is the victory against those that protect degenerate priests who prey on the sexual innocence of children but hound upon individual’s right to bear children.

If the award to Professor Edwards’ is a slap on the wrist of the so-called religious purists, jailed Chinese human rights and democracy campaigner Liu Xiaobo’s selection is an answer to the existential question of what good human rights and democracy campaigners’ sacrifice have done? Xiaobo’s selection has recognized the sacrifice of human rights and democracy campaigners across the globe. Unlike our own radicals that pursued murderous path to what they claim was for establishing civilian supremacy, Xiaobo’s struggle is for peaceful political change and an era of expanded freedom and rights. Recognition of Xiaobo’s peaceful democratic struggle is a real tribute to the unsung heroes muzzled during the 1989 pro-democracy demonstration at Tiananmen Square and beyond.

There is also a subtle message for our own radicals that seek financial favors from their Chinese counterparts to get to power and use Chinese model to curtail our democratic rights. It might take time but the overthrow of an autocratic ideology or regime is imminent

Reinventing Nepali Congress

2010-09-27T11:06:00.001-04:00

The 12th General Convention of the Nepali Congress (NC) can be regarded as a giant leap toward intra-party democracy, which, as a matter of fact, was long overdue. By reserving seats for women, Dalits, Madhesis, and indigenous people in the central committee, the NC has taken a stride toward reforming its image as a party dominated by pahadi Brahmins and Chettris.

It would be unfair to say that the groups that now have the privilege to represent themselves because of the policy of reservation were completely overlooked in the past. Ram Baran Yadav, Mahantha Thakur, Chitra Lekha Yadav, Bijay Gachchhedar and Jay Prakash Gupta are Madhesis who were at the helm of power both within the party and outside. It is altogether a different thing that their meteoric rise in the Nepali politics cannot be termed as merit-based. It is true that they did the initial leg-work required to get to the limelight but what is even truer is that Ram Baran Yadav, Chitra Lekha Yadav, Thakur, Gachchhedar and Gupta tremendously benefited from Girija Prasad Koirala’s benevolence.

It was a two-way street. The Tarai being the base of NC, Koirala needed Madhesi faces to cater to the base. But the condition was that they ought to be completely subservient. All of the aforementioned personalities fitted the bill. At least, till the late 1990s. Unlike the two Yadavs and Thakur, Gachchhedar and Gupta, who happen to be notoriously shrewd and opportunists, skimmed the system quite well to transform themselves from lightweights to heavyweights in the NC. The relationship, however, was perfectly symbiotic.

As long as corrupt and incompetent people who surrounded Koirala exhibited their unflinching support for him, he did not care about their incompetence or corrupt ways. By the time Koirala realized their actual intent, it was too late. They had already established themselves in Nepali politics. Turning a blind eye on wrongdoings of the followers proved to be costly for the NC. The party that people once looked up as a party of ideas and vision under B P Koirala’s able leadership has been completely reduced to a party of self-serving power mongers.

With Koirala gone, the NC is at a crossroads. The recently held general convention provided the NC with an opportunity to gain its lost ground and glory. How Sushil Koirala, the new president of NC, runs the party will largely determine whether or not the grand old party will be able to reinvent itself. Sushil’s lack of desire to enjoy power reflects his selflessness, which is rare in Nepali politics. He is the kind of man that Nepali people would like to see as party bosses. But in the political landscape full of opportunists, will his idealism be able to bring the much-needed transformation? Will his idealism triumph over opportunism, which is rampant within NC? The people that made Koirala sleepwalk toward the end of his life are now rooting for Sushil. His electoral victory was necessary for the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula to remain in circulation in Nepali politics. Sushil’s success as the NC’s president will largely depend on whether or not he will be able to ward off undue pressure from the likes of Sitaula.

There was quite a buzz about the emergence of new faces in the NC’s district-level elections. But will this translate victory into anything meaningful for the party? Of course, it is a good thing. Especially in a country, where almost 65 percent of the population is below 30 years of age, such change will have to be engineered. NC, for its own survival, needs to promote young leaders that better understand the aspirations of Nepali youth. The failure to do so has led to mass exodus of middle-class youth that are the actual believers of liberal democracy.

NC’s reinvention largely depends on reversal of this trend and its ability to better connect with them. However, for young, newly-elected district leaders and central committee members to focus on problems confronting the nation, they will first have to be assured of their political career. For the drive for hard work to come, these youngsters have to have faith over the leadership’s integrity and its commitment toward promoting hardworking and competent individuals. So far, the youngsters in the party have not exhibited that level of independence. The votes that Bhim Bahadur Tamang and Narahari Acharya garnered during the recent convention clearly show that the youngsters are not willing to break free from clientelism and risk their political career. Will Sushil be more willing to promote competence over clientelism?

Will Sushil be able to get out of the influence of the fat cats within the NC whose insensitivity toward problems of citizens and ideological decay sunk the party this low? His first major test will be the nomination of the central committee members. It will make clear whether Sushil is truly a selfless man ready to gamble his post for greater good of the party and the nation or an indecisive politician whose lack of confidence in solving problems made him to shy away from powerful positions in the cabinet. Sushil has a greater responsibility than any other past presidents of his party.

Today, multiparty democracy, whose existence is crucial for the survival of NC, is in real danger. He needs to find a clever way of mainstreaming the Maoists and prevent the CPN-UML and ethnic parties from falling into the Maoists’ trap. His ability to solve these problems and reinvent the party will largely depend upon whether or not he will be able to operate as an independent thinker and bring in new faces with new ideas onboard.

Illusive realization

2010-09-13T09:21:00.001-04:00

A renowned journalist in Kathmandu during a conversation last week acknowledged something that very few journalists in Nepal dare to write about. He basically told me three things. First, the peace process is dead. Second, the euphoria of spring 2006 revolution has all but dissipated and there is a seething anger among the public about the ongoing political mess. Third, the country needs a major course correction if it is to be saved from slipping into anarchy.

His views did not surprise me at all. It did not surprise me, because for me, achieving multiparty democracy by joining hands with the violent radical communists was always a far-fetched dream that I simply could not conceptualize. Hard- headed me? Sure, but I have to have evidences to believe in something. For me, hope is not a method. And, if history is any lesson, it has never happened anywhere else. Deep down, this is one of such instances where I very much wanted to be proved wrong. Honestly, there are very few instances when I have felt that way. The nation and people would have benefited and their hope for peace would have come true.

His words got me thinking. How did we get where we are? The political malaise that we witness in Nepal is not of current making. It is a result of inept political decisions taken year after year for more than the past one and a half decade. The revolution of 1990 had provided a perfect platform to radically transform the nation. It is impossible to have such a golden opportunity anytime soon. Girija Prasad Koirala’s hunger for power, ballot-rigging and horse-trading culture that he oversaw and did nothing to control, herd of incompetent and corrupt politicians that he cropped to checkmate Ganeshman Singh and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s more moderate and comparatively well-educated followers destroyed the prospects of democratic consolidation in Nepal. Inability to bring about a social change through radical reforms turned a perfect ground for democratic consolidation into a breeding ground for violent insurgency, which Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai had failed to achieve their political dreams under Nirmal Lama’s leadership and beyond were sharp enough to see.

GP Koirala’s annihilation methods of fellow competitors within the party and exceptional expertise in bringing down the government soon became the norm in Nepali politics. All sides: United Marxist Leninist (UML) to former royalists adapted it well to their best advantage. The recent audio tape scandal in which Krishna Bahadur Mahara is heard pleading his Chinese handler millions for political horse-trading is nothing new in Nepali politics. The only difference is that Mahara having been on the run in jungles did not realize that, unlike in jungles, in human settlements, communications can be intercepted and recorded to score political points. People learn from mistakes. This incidence is sure to bring about enhanced sophistication in Mahara’s future dealings.

In Nepal, politics has never been about people. It is practiced in the name of people but not for the people. If we look back, justifications for political change has been always based on people. But as and when political changes materialize, it is quickly reduced to a political opportunism and money making scheme. Repetition of it over and over again can be interpreted in two ways. A more neutral interpretation would call it as the failure of political leadership without raising a question of about whether or not it ever had a vision about as and how to bring about socio-political and economic change. But if an evidence based approach is to be taken, there is ample room to suspect the very intentions of politicians that advocate political change. Looking back political change that politicians pushed for appears more like a ploy to get to the corridor of power and remain there than anything else. What follows the change is misinterpretation of what change was actually for.

The political bickering and power struggle of mid-90s and onward succumbed whatever little vision that Nepali politicians had in terms of bringing about the real change in Nepal. Politicians both within the Nepali Congress and the UML spent more time sharpening their skills required to out-compete the opposition faction within the party than thinking through the issues confronting Nepali society. In the absence of their ability to solve people’s problems, emergence of a powerful political force was eminent, which they conveniently undermined till the Maoists gained grounds and emerged as a prominent threat for their political survival.

Gyanendra’s political adventurism provided a perfect ground for the Maoists to lure the major political parties. The political parties by then had become so used to remaining in the power that they saw nothing wrong in the Maoists’ lewd act.India’s assurance as a guarantor must have provided additional confidence. But what the parties that agreed to bed with the Maoists and India that provided both the moral and material support to the Maoists during the insurgency undermined was that the Maoists that were promising to play by the rules were not loafers that all of a sudden had gotten their hands on guns.

The mainstreaming of a violent radical communist group that had picked guns after being disillusioned with the parliamentary democracy cannot and should not have been based on mere commitments. But the necessity clouded judgments. India saw it as a perfect opportunity to dislodge ultra-nationalist monarchy, parties wanted additional force to fight back the crackdown on them, and as far as the Maoists were concerned, it was the best opportunity to parachute to the urban areas. There might be few, but there people like myself, who still believe that Gyanendra’s political adventurism could have been defeated without joining hands with the Maoists. It would have taken time and that is what GP Koirala did not have on his side. Joining hands with the Maoists has created more problems than it has solved. Looking back, politicians must have realized that putting strategy before ideology is never productive in the long run. Joining hands with ideologically antagonistic force is always counterproductive and dangerous.

It is not the politicians’ fault, entirely. Neither media, nor intellectuals cautioned about the possible dangers associated with bedding with the Maoists. Some did not want to jeopardize their status by sticking their neck out, whereas others did not want to come across as a “regressive” element in a nation that is immersed in “ultra-progressive” glory. That was three years ago. The media and intellectuals are still reluctant to question the utility of the Constituent Assembly, whose main function is to draft a new constitution and act as a legislature. Failure to promulgate a constitution within the stipulated date and elect a prime minister even after the seven rounds of voting has already proved its futility. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is insanity. Isn’t it high time for Nepali media, academics, and intellectuals to engage in real analysis rather than put faith in the process that has failed to produce results? Committing one mistake after another is not the way to build an egalitarian society. Learning from the past mistakes and doing things differently when things do not work is.

Shameless power struggle

2010-08-30T23:10:00.001-04:00

The political parties continue to foist ugly power struggle on an unwilling and ailing nation. It is very unlikely that the ongoing power struggle will end with the sixth round of prime ministerial election slated for Sept 5. The struggle will not end, not because it cannot, if sincere effort is made, but because the stakes are too high for the parties involved. Nepali Congress (NC) does not want Puspa Kamal Dahal to become the PM for a very simple reason. Once Dahal gets back to the power, it will be virtually impossible to edge him out. With the strength that Dahal has in the Constituent Assembly, money his fellow proletariats have made after coming over ground, and the muscle power that he has kept intact by not agreeing to the integration plan proposed by the ruling coalition members, NC with its dwindling base has more than enough reasons to play safe. Besides that, NC’s politicians that have gotten shamelessly used to taking turns in enjoying power without facing the electorate, genuinely think that it is their turn to rule the country.

For the Maoists, the situation is equally tricky. Dahal and his fellow comrades very well understand that whoever becomes the Prime Minister now will oversee the expiration of the CA. They will have no bargaining power that they enjoy now once the CA expires, all bets will be off. The transformation of image, from murderous guerillas to elected politicians has been a glorious one. Power, prestige, and money that came with the transformation of image are not things that the Maoists would want to lose. Going back to jungles is, thus, not an option anymore, no matter how hard they try to lie about it. They want more power, not less. And, they will keep holding the nation hostage one way or the other till they get what they want.

As far as Jhala Nath Khanal is concerned, he has no option but to operate under the guise of neutrality. The pace with which political and security situation is worsening in the country, he very well understands that he might not have another chance in the future. For now, playing at the hands of the Maoist comrades very well serves his purpose and there is very little K P Oli and Madhav Nepal can do about it. Pushing Khanal too hard may result in getting him even closer to the Maoists, which obviously Oli and Nepal do not want. Madhav has already become the Prime Minister, but for Oli, that dream is still alive, and in order to fulfill that, he needs his party to remain intact. If courting external force alone was enough, politicians of fringe parties would have become PM long ago. Oli is seasoned enough to understand that reality. So, for Oli, there is very little that he can do at this point in time than letting Khanal continue his quest for premiership under the veil of neutrality.

The problem, however, is not limited to domestic struggle over power. It runs way too deep. Like domestic political forces, international forces, too, are also trying hard to out-compete each other. The quest for control has gotten so fierce that India has engaged itself to such a level that it has started micromanaging things in Nepal. Increased Indian activities have alarmed China. Recent flurry of visits by Chinese officials clearly hints that China is definitely not happy about bloated Indian presence in Nepal. Besides, India and China, which happen to have the biggest interest in having Nepal in their sphere of influence, there are other Western forces that have significant interest in Nepal. Multiple external actors with both covert and overt interest and their support to warring sides have brought the political process to a grinding halt.

While both domestic and external struggle for control over Nepal is getting uglier and deadlocked, there is something else that is happening in Nepal. The state is slowly but certainly inching toward collapse. The industrial sector is bleeding to death due to a daily eight-hour power cut and the militant activities of the Maoists’ labor union. More than 300 industries, mostly small and medium ones, are believed to have shut their gates for good. When the entire world is progressing from industrialization, Nepal is wriggling backward. The dependency on subsistence agriculture is increasing. The only ray of hope is foreign employment. But putting too much faith on it will not get us anywhere. Had remittance been answer to domestic growth, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other leading labor exporting countries would have been first world nations long time ago.

The decay in security situation is equally alarming. Some 10,000 illegal small arms are believed to be floating around in the capital alone. If this is the situation in the capital city, what it would be like to live in hinterlands, where the state’s authority has completely eroded? In order to buy-in popular support, political parties, especially the Maoist, pushed social mobilization to such a dangerous level that it has out-stripped institutional capacity. The level of sophistication and impunity with which land sharks operate in the country and radical communists that pretend to be playing by the norms of democracy confiscate private property says all about the power of the institutions on the ground. Both personal and political freedom of citizens has been severely curtailed. For citizens, the collapse of the state is an abstraction. It has already happened.

The chaos will further worsen if strong action is not taken immediately. The problem, however, is that there is no institution in Nepal that sees itself as the bulwark against worsening chaos. The president has so far been reluctant to send even a strong signal. He seems content hosting dinners for foreign dignitaries and gracing religious functions. The only bold step he took after he took office was the reinstatement of Rookmangud Katwal as the army chief. The time has come again that he steps forward and does the needful. The first thing in his to-do list should be the dissolution of this worthless CA. Even the partisan hacks now acknowledge that this CA will not draft the constitution, so what’s the point in wasting tax payers’ money in feeding fraudulent sharks? Dissolve the CA and demine the field by putting criminals behind bars. The election date should come along with the dissolution notice, or else, these very politicians that have been making a mockery of democracy will try to paint the president as a dictator. Contentious agendas such as the federal structure should be put on the ballot.

It is important to put an end to the manipulative politics that Dahal and his fellow comrades are engaged in and force politicians of moderate political parties that have mastered the shameless art of backdoor dealings to face the electorate. Enough is enough!

End experiments

2010-08-16T09:15:00.001-04:00

The political situation in Nepal is getting murkier each day. Recently, India sent two of its former ambassadors to Nepal to find the "outlet". One of them, K V Rajan, who landed immediately after Shyam Saran left is still busy with parleys. Subsequent visits of the former Indian diplomats make it clear that the situation is out of control of the handlers based in Indian Embassy campus in Kathmandu. This is certainly not the situation, where bureaucrats, especially the young ones trying to vault higher into the overly bureaucratic and hierarchical structure of the Indian Foreign Service (IFS), would like to be in. They, for their part, seem to have tried everything from backdoor dealings to issuing open threats. But at times, things do not work despite all sweat and toil, and that is life. It certainly doesn't feel good, does it?

To India's dismay, things in Nepal is surely not going the way Saran and other "Nepal experts" based in Delhi had imagined, when they came up with the formula of bedding the violent Maoist radicals with the moderate mainstream political parties. They thought that by catapulting the Maoists into the mainstream—which is what they thought they were doing till the Maoists swept Constituent Assembly elections—they would have complete dominance over Nepali politics and politicians. It would have been true if politics was an electric circuit where you exactly know the way electric current flows, and stop it, if need be. But politics is not an electrical circuit. In it, you have an ego, ambitions, power, and money at play. Hence, deciphering how one would act in changed circumstances is a very tricky business.

Saran and others crafting India's "pragmatic" Nepal policy should have taken cues from what happens in India all the time. Protégé abandon their political mentors as their political base and popularity expands. Nitish Kumar, the current chief minister of Bihar, which is also the home state of Saran, is one such example. Nitish ended the parliamentary career of George Fernandes, who was not only his mentor but also a person that helped a formerly lightweight Nitish to jump start his stagnant political career under Lalu Prasad Yadav. It was Fernandes that helped Kumar to break away from Lalu's Janata Dal in 1994 and form the Samata Party.

Saran and fellow pragmatists placed enormous confidence on transformational power of Indian establishment's moral and materialsupport to the Nepali Maoists during the insurgency and their role as a "guarantor" and "facilitator" of the twelve-point agreement signed in New Delhi. They thought it was more than enough to keep the Nepali Maoist on a leash. But little did they realize that impacts of moral and material support strength-bound and wane as protégé gain their own strength. As support base swells, they feel less obliged to remain subservient. It happened with the Maoists and again with the Madhesi People's Rights Forum. In the case of later, India was quite successful to contain the defection by administering vertical split. The bottom line is that moral and material support does not buy eternal subservience.

To say the least, India's policy toward Nepal is seriously flawed. It wants to turn Nepal into a subservient client state like Bhutan, butcan't articulate exactly how. This inability has led India to engage in a never-ending series of dangerous experiments that have completely destroyed the prospects of establishment of egalitarian republican order in Nepal. India sincerely hoped that uprooting of the Monarchy would align its Southern neighbor permanently in its sphere of influence. But that hope got dashed away when the tactical use of nationalism by the monarchy was soon replaced by the jingoism of the Maoists. In order to neutralize the Maoists, Indian establishment then exploited the genuine quest for ethnic empowerment. While the Madhesi politicians are being assured of all help in their quest, the likes of Laxman Tharus that are dead against Madhesi parties' one madhes agenda are being occasionally ferried to New Delhi for secret consultation and direction by the Indian intelligence. Ethnic populace clamoring for their genuine rights appearas confused, if not more, as ever. Even the leaders appear bewildered. Recently, Upendra Yadav, during one of his media interviews said that it is not only Kathmandu but also Delhi does not understand their plight. If Nepali media is to be trusted, there are reports all over about K V Rajan and the current Indian ambassador meeting Gyanendra Shah. If this is true, the never-ending experimentation in the name of "pragmatism" by the Indian establishment has made a complete circle.

At present, India's policy toward Nepal is no different from managing a brothel—a purely business transaction, where the pimps are identified and paid off to get the best beauty in town in bed. Playing one forces against another has completely uprooted people's faith over the political process. It is not only that, people are losing lost faith over liberal democracy. The politicians of ethnic parties now come across as puppets playing at the hands of external power.

In summary, India has made Nepali populace, both Pahadis and Madhesis, wary of its intentions. It can certainly do better. All it has to do is stand by its commitment to the democratic process. People of Nepal, at least the educated ones, very well understand the sensitivity of Indo-Nepal relationship. The new herd of politicians and bureaucrats cropped up from the well-established transparent democratic system would be more level-headed and reliable than the ones currently in circulation and bartered occasionally. They may not serve Indian interest completely, but for sure, they will not be foolish like the herd we have now to resort to jingoism. The transaction costs of dealing with them will be far less than what India is incurring now. End experiments and get back to the basics. It will be beneficial both for India and Nepal.

Identify the problem

2010-08-02T14:42:00.001-04:00

Will the nation have a new prime minister on August 2? The chances are slim. The chances are slim not because the political parties are not on the same page on who should be leading the government but because there is no proper framework that forces them to come to an agreement. If the past history is any indication of as and when Nepali politicians come to a consensus, it is the political survival or the chances of losing pay and perks that drive them.

Where has the call for “political consensus” gotten us? There is a rapid decay in social and institutional capital. Insecurity and political instability have triggered massive flight of human and financial capital. Lack of security has forced thousands of village development committee secretaries to resign en masse, which will have disastrous impact on community development. The Maoists cashed-in on local disenchantment when local bodies were functional. Their absence, now, will result in an unchecked mushrooming of radical and criminal groups. The difference between the two is pretty blurred in Nepal.

Let’s accept the fact that living in the hell of misplaced good intentions has not gotten us anywhere. The never-ending cry for political consensus will have to come to an end some day, the sooner the better. Politics is a competitive business and it is better that way. Every politician has an ambition to reach to the top most level. And, especially in a context like ours, where the political process is translucent and rules are arbitrary, it is quite natural for the politicians to do whatever it takes to get the job. Political pundits and the media should shed their obsession with “political consensus” and think about ways to as and how we can make politicians act responsibly and deliver so that we are not at their mercy. They should stop hinting that without political consensus the country is going to go down the drain. We are already on our way there if we don’t reverse our course!

We live in a nation where a majority government did not last a full term. What kind of consensus are we talking about here? Is it even rational to ask for everlasting consensus among the parties with such a stark difference in ideology and agenda?

Yes, we all need a constitution, and without a consensus among the political parties, it is not possible to have one. Makes perfect sense, at least theoretically. But theories are good on paper. We live in a practical world where economic dividends and power define political actions. Constitution-making is neither economically profitable, nor does it bar politicians not engaged in its making ineligible to enjoy power. So why bother? Besides, each party has its own view as to how the constitution should be. The Maoists do not care about it, as they know very well that with the current configuration in the Constituent Assembly (CA), they cannot have the constitution of their liking. The major political parties of yesteryears want to have a constitution not very different from the 1990s, which they very well know is not possible given the fragmented political landscape and upsurge in ethnic consciousness. As far as ethnic parties are concerned, sticking to the ridiculously inflexible ethnic demands, which they themselves put on the backburner while in power, is the only way to remain in circulation in Nepali politics.

If the Maoists agree to the kind of the constitution that the NC and the UML want and the way they want the Nepal Army-People’s Liberation Army (PLA) merger to happen, it will be like mainstreaming into the post-1990 political system. If that is what they wanted, there was no need to fight the decade-long bloody insurgency. For the NC and UML, agreeing to the Maoists’ terms and conditions for constitution-writing and PLA merger would mean dwarfing their own future prospects. Why would they want to do that? The rude awakening that came with the Maoist victory in the CA election is enough to keep them skeptical toward the Maoists for a long time.

Every political parties on the ground will talk about the necessity of having a constitution and moving the political process forward but that is all we will get if the system is not forced to change. The change in guard is irrelevant at this point in time. The debate should be over whether or not the new prime minister will be able to achieve the things that we want him to achieve? If not, how does it matter?

There is a fault within the existing system, which political pundits, media, and the so- called intellectuals are collectively ignoring. Endless regurgitation of the need for consensus is not going to help ease the existing political stalemate, which actually is the result of the consistent abuse of the political system in the name of consensus. By forcing strange bedfellows to conjugate indefinitely, we are dwarfing the chances of realization of democracy. The realization of democracy is contingent upon rules of the game that provide political parties competing against one another a chance to govern within institutional systems that guarantee fairness and a genuine opportunity for alternation of power between competing parties. We need a political system that can punish crime and corruption, mediate between ethnic forces and competing economic interests and turf incompetents out peacefully.

There is no way that politicians are going to agree on the contentious issues, for example, whether or not the entire Madhes should be one province. Such issues determine the political career of many politicians who would be jobless if these issues are solved amicably. The best way to deal with such issues would be referendum. By trying to take a short-cut, we are wasting our time, resources, and energy, which need to be used in creating employment opportunities for youths. In the absence of decent employment opportunities, young Nepalis are being turned into hotheads by conniving separatists, radical ideologues, and criminals.

Our obsession with “political consensus” has allowed politicians to abuse the political system endlessly. They can conveniently choose chance over sovereignty; uncertainty over certainty; darkness over light. The only way to stop the free fall is to take the route that we should have taken after the CA failed to do its duty. We should have gone for fresh elections with contentious issues on the ballet. The process would have been much more transparent. By shying away from the democratic processes and forcing unusual bedfellows to remain in symbiotic relationship indefinitely, we are stifling the prospects of democratic consolidation. It is about time we identified the real problem behind the existing political stalemate.

Will political drama ever end?

2010-07-19T18:27:00.002-04:00

It’s already been two weeks since Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned from his post as the Prime Minister. His resignation would break the political deadlock and enhance the possibility of consensus politics. At least, that is what the Maoists said before he formally put his resignation on the paper and called it quits. Contrary to their assertion, his resignation has further thickened the plot.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his comrades had really hoped that once Nepal quit, it would be really easy to use gullible opportunists within the CPN-UML to pressurize their leadership to support the Maoists, which obviously has not happened so far. The Maoists’ calculation has once again gone wrong. But at least they had a formula that they thought would work in their favor. They are down but not out. They will pull up their sleeves and gear up for another showdown. So no matter who replaces Nepal, he or she will not have easier days ahead. It is, therefore, better to realize the fact that radical communism is part and parcel of Nepali politics. Undermining or wishing it away is naïve. Instead of engaging in endless checkmate game, it is better to keep them engaged and find ways to mainstream them.

While the Maoists are committed to achieving their end goal, come what may, the ruling coalition is glued together by two things: The lust for power and the threat of the Maoist intimidation and take over. The fragility of the coalition is evident from their differences over who should head the next government. If the coalition was really sincere about institutionalizing democracy and safeguarding the people’s rights, the issue of premiership would have been insignificant. Nepal’s resignation has thrown coalition members out of orbit.

The lust for power among the major political party leaders of the current coalition is the major reason why the President’s call to form a national consensus government failed to produce any results. Not only the first deadline but the second one was also missed. If the ongoing wrangling continues, we will have no idea of Nepal’s successor till the last minute. It is quite possible that the election of the new PM through voting in the Constituent Assembly (CA) on July 21 may still not produce a conclusive winner if the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were to field their own candidates.

Is anything wrong with the ongoing political drama? For external forces that have political and security interests in Nepal, politicians can wrangle as much as they want to. As long as the chaos is controllable, political pendulum can swing the way it likes. For politicians, it is the pay and perks that need to keep flowing. In the current situation whereby the prospect of facing electorate is extremely remote, the need to deliver is simply not in anybody’s priority. As far as the power brokers in Kathmandu are concerned, till the chances of remaining in circulation are alive, they will not have to worry about benefiting from the liquidation of the state. They have mastered the art of rebranding, can become anything from civil society members to partisan hack, as the political landscape shifts.

Given the level of insensitivity exhibited by the external players, politicians, and power brokers toward the degrading political and economic condition, it is high time that people hit the streets like they did against the Maoists’ blockade couple of months ago. The sooner the better. Nepali people need to be concerned about the degenerating political culture which is having a disastrous impact on the way we live and enjoy political and personal freedom. Not only that, it is also jeopardizing the prospects of socioeconomic development. Recently, the Maoist Central Committee member and commander of the PLA Fifth Division in Rolpa, Kali Bahadur Kham, was found to have conducted suspicious transaction with Chinese traders, who eventually ended up getting robbed by the revolutionary. This shows the level of criminalization in politics. It is not only the politicians that are resorting to criminal activities to enrich themselves. Tej Bahadur Karki, a Hetauda Appellate Court Judge, was recently suspended for his involvement in an inappropriate release of abduction kingpins: Sanjaya Shrestha, Rohit Paliwal Agrawal and Bhimsen Pundit. The ongoing rapid decay of institutions is having a serious impact on our chances to emerge as a modern and prosperous society. The new measure, called the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed and applied by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative with the support of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) shows that 78 percent of Nepalis live on two dollars a day. These poor are barely surviving, not thriving. We are even behind impoverished nations like Haiti, Djibouti, and Swaziland.

The reason why we are regressing despite never-ending progressive hoopla is that we let politics triumph over rules. We, as a nation, are more interested in political outcomes, rather than the process. We, as a matter of fact, do not care about the process at all. For example, we want a new government but are least concerned about whether the process of having such a government in place is transparent and ethical. By not doing so, we undermine the fact that what we are doing today will build on what we want to do tomorrow. If we want a transparent and functional political system, we should be prioritizing the process, rather than getting obsessed with outcomes. It might be a long and arduous process, but it at least ensures definite outcomes that cannot be easily rigged by corrupt politicians, that are more interested in enriching themselves rather than serving their constituents.

We should stop letting politics triumph over the rules. President Ram Baran Yadav, should make the CA members play by the rules and stop extending deadlines. Yadav, a decent man, must take part of the blame for political malaise. By appearing too lenient, he is making the swamp even murkier. It is time we drained the swamp to prevent it from becoming murkier and smellier. Politicians in the CA see take him for granted and treat as a fellow traveler rather an authority, where the buck should actually stop. The buck has to stop somewhere. Someone has to be there to say enough is enough or else the political drama will go on forever.

The game is on

2010-07-05T12:26:00.001-04:00

The clock started ticking for the thrilling and unpredictable drama of the race for the prime ministerial post the very minute Madhav Kumar Nepal put down his papers. Along with the usual contenders of major political parties, the bosses of fringe parties too have thrown their hat in the ring. Given the level of hatred that the Indian establishment harbors against Pushpa Kamal Dahal, it is very unlikely that he will end up having the job once again. The leader of the largest party in the parliament is all but out of the race. Dahal is a victim of his own unwarranted shrewdness. By now, he must have realized that even in a gullible nation, there is a limit to which you can exploit populism and stoke ultra-nationalism to get to power.

India would have no problem letting the Maoist party head the government if Dahal made way for Dr Baburam Bhattarai. The work to make that happen has been underway for a while now. India’s proxies in Nepal have been openly promoting the idea of Bhattarai as prime minister. The Tarai-based Madhesi parties have come out openly in favor of Bhattarai. Recently, Brikhesh Chandra Lal of Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party went to the extent of saying that Bhattarai was the only capable candidate in the Maoist party to head the government. The change of heart in favor of Bhattarai is not a coincidence. It is a part of a greater design of the Indian establishment to bring about virtual split in the Maoist party. The Maoist party at its current form is too big for India to dictate and its proxies in Nepal to compete with. Indians calling the shot truly believe that the only way to break the Maoist party is by promoting Bhattarai and making him compromise on contentious issues like integration of Maoist combatants.

Given the intra-party feud in the Nepali Congress (NC) and its antagonistic posture against the Maoist party, there is a huge possibility that Jhalanath Khanal might emerge as a consensus candidate for the prime minister’s post. Having Khanal as prime minister has its own pros and cons. It may temporary halt the migration of CPN-UML cadres to the Maoist party and delay the defection of the likes of Bamdev Gautam. In other words, having him as a prime minister may delay the surge of the political left in Nepal. The longevity of the government under Khanal will be greater than that of anyone from the NC. This is mainly because the Constituent Assembly members from the UML will not support the NC government for long even if it materializes. The chances of the NC heading the government are very slim at this point of time. Given the fact that even the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Shekhar Koirala, both of whom once openly boasted about bringing the Maoists over ground, have now become weary about the Maoists’ intentions, there is very little reason for the Maoists to support NC to form a government. If they cannot head the government, they want someone who favors them. Or else they had no reason to persist on getting rid of Madhav Nepal.

The danger associated with Khanal’s ascendancy to power is that he is too tilted toward the left. If you look at Khanal’s views on crucial issues and his relationship with Dahal and other Maoist leaders, it becomes quite evident that there is not much of a difference between him and the top-level Maoist ideologues. Additionally, Khanal flip-flops too. At this point in time, we need someone who can tactfully deal with the Maoists on the issue of integration of combatants, pressurize them to return seized properties, demobilize Young Communist League’s paramilitary structure, and crush criminal activities under ethnic cover. We need someone who can deliver on the aforementioned fronts and still have enough political capital to spend on the constitution-making process. Given Khanal’s cozy relationship with the Maoist party, his emergence as a compromise candidate may help solve the existing political stalemate but will be of no use when it comes to mainstreaming the Maoists. The mainstreaming of the Maoists is crucial because unless that happens, the desire to have a republican order of their liking will remain alive and kicking.

Madhav Nepal’s government failed on all possible fronts. It could not work well with the opposition party, failed miserably to maintain law and order, and was fiscally irresponsible. But Nepal must be given credit for not heeding to Maoists’ coercion. He did not heed to Maoist threat of indefinite strike, which the Maoists were forced to withdraw because of the lack of popular support. Nepal might have gotten the directives from international players to not get coerced by the Maoists but it takes some courage to stand the heat. We all know how capable the Maoists are in extracting concessions from gullible personalities. The late Girija Prasad Koirala’s post-2006 stint as prime minister is a classic example. At this juncture, the country needs a strong but tactical prime minister to effectively deal with the Maoists. We need someone who can adopt a carrot-and-stick approach required to tame the Maoists and take the constitution-drafting process forward at the same time. By now, even the eternal optimists must have realized how misguided the process of achieving peace through the appeasement of the Maoists has been.

None of the claimants for the premiership have the required political will and capital to deliver on all fronts. There is no evidence whatsoever to believe that the new government will last longer than the one it replaces. But the resignation of Madhav Nepal has opened up a space for political compromise. It has once again given chance to Nepali politicians to come together and solve the problems confronting the nation. Nepali people would feel lucky even if some of the contentious issues are resolved.

Speak the Truth

2010-06-21T00:11:00.000-04:00

The political stalemate continues unabated. While the members of the current coalition continue to stick to the demand of the dissolution of paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) and return of the property seized property, the Maoists like in the past are trying their best to get away without fulfilling these demands. Given the level of political dishonesty that the Maoists exhibit, will these demands, that have a far reaching consequences on how we live and pursue our livelihoods, be ever met? Many concerned citizens have these questions crossing their minds.

Let’s get this straight: The paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) will not be dissolved and the seized property will never be returned. There are many reasons for this, the prime being: In the Maoists’ collective consciousness, YCL is not a paramilitary force. It is a youth political force like the ones that every other major Nepali political party has. As far as the seized properties are concerned, 90 percent have been already returned. This is what the chief architect of the Maoist Party, Baburam Bhattarai said when grilled by Fauziah Ibrahim of the Al Jazeera television, recently. Is Bhattarai telling the truth? Absolutely not! There is ample evidence to support the fact that YCL is a paramilitary force. As far as the return of the seized properties is concerned, the process is yet to begin. Despite their pledge to return the seized properties, the Maoists continue to seize private properties. Ms. Ibrahim presented the fact that the latest event of confiscation occurred in May of 2010.

Bhattarai’s latest interview raises a serious question on his integrity. Bhattarai, whom many youngsters revere as the most honest politician, may not be what they believe him to be. The time has come for the bewildered youths who see political messiah in Bhattarai to take a close look at things he says and does. There is clear disconnect. It might be dangerous to chase fantasies preached by intellectual guru that believes in radical violent means to social reform and has an audacity to lie with a straight face knowing the fact that he will be watched by millions within and beyond the national boundary.

What should we expect from our politicians? Should we expect moral perfection? Or should we expect them to do the job they were hired to do? Or, the both? Answering these questions might be even considered redundant given the level of dishonesty that Nepali politicians exhibit. Despite consistent outlandish remarks and violent outbursts, Bhattarai is considered as a relatively clean and competent leader. He has been so far successful in not only charming relatively well educated youths but also keeping the Indians that call the shots in Nepal guessing. At the end of the day, he might turn out to be not very different from his current boss Pushpa Kamal Dahal, whom India groomed unsuccessfully to serve its interest.

Indians in their never ending experiment to turn Nepal into a client state are hedging their bet on Bhattarai primarily for two reasons. First, the Maoist party at its current form with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as a supreme leader is impossible to dictate. Hence, it needs to be cut down in size. And the best way to do that is by promoting Bhattarai, which they think will eventually lead to a vertical split in the Maoist party. Indian bureaucrats and intelligence operatives, especially the ones stationed in Kathmandu, seriously believe that making Bhattarai the next prime minister will bring about a split in the Maoist party. Second, Indians at this point have no bankable leader with popular mass support, whom they can rely on, to fulfill Indian interests.

Bhattarai with a straight face lied to Ms. Ibrahim. Why did he do that? He did so for a very simple reason. And, the reason is—he can afford to do so. He very well realizes the fact that he is dealing with a fragmented electorate. People whose property has been seized belong to the upper middle class and beyond, who did not support the Maoist rebellion to begin with. Plus, they are the ones that complain about the YCL’s paramilitary activities. So, why even bother about being correct?

Instead of engaging in a futile exercise of wining the hearts and minds of urban elites and “feudal” in hinterland, he talks about the rights of peasants to till the land. It is important to understand why Bhattarai and others ideologues in UCPN (Maoist) raise the issue of land reform, which they failed to act upon, while heading the government. In a country where approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line and millions are landless, the idea of land reform has tremendous political appeal. Through land reform the Maoist, want to hand out “rights” to politically correct groups (read landless and tenants). At the end of the day, by expanding the entitlements of these groups, they want to garner their undivided support and use them against other citizens that oppose Maoists’ agendas. In doing so, Bhattarai and his fellow ideologues conveniently ignore the fact that the cost of the gifts they bestow on these groups have to be borne by other hardworking citizens.

Never-ending political crisis

2010-06-07T00:50:00.000-04:00

The nation would plunge into a bigger chaos if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is not extended. Nepali people must have heard this countless times in the past months, of course, and many must have accepted it without thinking. Life would be hunky dory and we would all live happily thereafter, political pundits and the media hinted. It was portrayed as the final hurdle to the finish line. Contrary to the political pundit and media’s assertion, the political stalemate has rather thickened. The latest deal retailed as an essential leap to bail out the country from plunging into the bigger chaos is increasingly appearing as another doomed assertion.

The gravest problem this nation faces is the inability of the so- called intellectuals and media to confront the fact that we shouldn’t resort to deals to govern the nation. Deals can be conveniently bent or broken to suit political outcomes. In a country, where the end justifies the means, resorting to deals to bail the nation out of political stalemate is itself a recipe for disaster. Where have the countless deals signed in the past taken us?

Nepalis complain endlessly about how immoral and stupid politicians are, and how badly they have lied to the public about this or that. But what we forget is that our politicians perfectly represent a nation that shows such a thoroughgoing incapacity for thought, and such an aversion to the truth about their own behavior. We seek morality and honesty in our politicians, when we, ourselves, are unwilling to confront the truth for what it is. It is high time that our political pundits and media bosses take a deep breath and try to analyze the crux of the problem before suggesting the easiest way out.

By endlessly opting for an easy way out, we are piling up the problems and letting it accumulate for implosion. Instead of letting the parties fight it out democratically in elections, we are forcing them to do backdoor dealings, which are often not followed. If one is to venture forward mentally one baby step, one will quickly come to see that the deal that was struck minutes before the expiration of CA was a political necessity more than anything else. It was not something that came out of realization of responsibility towards Nepali people. Had KP Oli not struck a deal, the UML would have witnessed a vertical split. With the migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist camp, Oli would have lost substantial amount of political capital and the backing of India that he enjoys now. For Oli, it was a desperate act of political survival. As far as Pushpa Kamal Dahal is concerned, with dissolution of the CA, his stature and the bargaining power, which stems out of the sheer number that the Maoist party has in CA, would have ceased to exist. With India and the major political parties against Dahal’s prime ministerial aspirations, keeping the CA alive was a political necessity. For the Nepali Congress, sailing with the CPN-UML was the only option at hand. Keeping the CPN-UML intact is not only in the best interest of Oli and the incumbent prime minister but also the congress party. Any vertical split in the CPN-UML and the breakaway faction’s migration to the Maoist camp shall further dwarf the NC’s stature, which is the last thing that the NC wants at this point in time. NC’s political future is very much dependent upon its symbiotic relationship with the CPN-UML.

What happened during the eve of May 28 was a desperate act of political survival. Now, that political parties have successfully bailed themselves out without spending much of their political capital, the game is on to out-fox each other. The NC and CPN-UML are all set to outsmart the Maoists in the very game that the Maoists used against them not a very long ago. The Maoists want to bounce back to the power by adhering to one of the three points in the deal—Prime Minister’s resignation—and undermining others. Whereas the CPN-UML, NC and India want to checkmate Dahal by asking the Maoists to first fulfill other points in the deal, which is virtually impossible. The power of the Maoist party and its control over the society comes from the muscle of the battle hardened fighters, whom it slyly rebranded as young communist leaguers and the loyal party members who are now enjoying the property looted in the last two decades. Why would the Maoists alienate its base and heed the demands put forward by NC and CPM-UML? It simply does not make any sense.

So far, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has kept his prime ministerial aspirations under wraps. He wants to throw his hat in the ring after the incumbent resigns. And, that is where the problem lies. Both India and politicians of the major political parties do not want Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the next prime minister. For India, he is too unreliable to serve Indian interests, whereas for others, he is too ambitious and charismatic, who they think can cut their size further down. India would immediately give its nod and other parties would follow suit, if Baburam Bhattarai was to become the next prime minister. With the major political parties at home and India in an antagonistic mode, it might be the last thing that Pushpa Kamal Dahal might want at this point in time. In a quest for a shortcut through a new set of deals, we might have embarked on a senseless political quagmire. Very soon another round of deal-making might be needed to troubleshoot the snag in the deal signed on May 28.

After all our nation is governed through deals, what’s wrong with that?

Let CA expire

2010-05-24T07:36:00.002-04:00

The two-year term of the Constituent Assembly (CA) is coming to an end on May 28. If not extended, which is highly unlikely, the CA’s 601 members will become jobless. Those that want to see these 601 bench warmers get jobless after May 28, hold your breath, do not hedge your bets, yet. A last minute deal on extension is very likely. The extension also extends flow of pay and perks. And when it comes to enriching oneself, Nepali politicians are shamelessly forthcoming. Consensus evade our politicians only when it comes to agreeing on matters that affect common men whose lives are severely blighted by the effects of poverty, unemployment, and lawlessness.

So far, the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML and few smaller parties are the ones that have come forward vouching for the extension of the CA. I, for one, am totally against such a move. Extending the tenure of the CA is wrong on many levels. To begin with, there is no provision in the interim constitution that permits the extension of the CA. Also, it is against the spirit of electoral democracy. The major political parties that are vouching for the extension of the CA are, in reality, undermining the fact that in democracy, office holders are supposed to be responsive to the needs and desires of voters. In the case of failure to do so, which is the case, voters have the right to “throw the rascals out.” Basically, by extending the CA, the politicians are trying to devoid the voters their right and subvert the process of accountability.

As clever as they are, the Maoists do not want to lend their support for extension of the CA until Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal steps down. After suffering major setbacks in recent months, they now have realized that their chances of getting back to power through majority rule are slim. Hence, they want to revert back to the consensus system, which they milked to the fullest extent. They were the ones that undermined the consensus system in an attempt to get Ram Raja Prasad Singh elected as the president. Despite their firm posture, there is very little room to believe that the Maoists will actually stick to not lending their support for extension. More than anything else, it is a bargaining ploy. For the Maoists, it is the CA that provides them the status of the largest party. With its expiration, all bargains that stems out of their status as the largest party is off the table.

In this debate on whether or not the CA should be extended, the real issues that dwarfed the chances of having the new constitution in the first place is still not being discussed. Pundits bemoan the absence of bipartisanship. Implicitly, they believe that bipartisanship is necessary and sufficient to solve the existing political crisis. In their short-sightedness, they fail to acknowledge the fact that Nepali politics today actually is beset with irreconcilable differences. What the Maoists want at the end of the day is drastically different from that of the NC, UML, and other pro-parliamentary forces in Nepal. The nation is bitterly divided over ideology. Most people who care about politics are on one side or the other.

It is time to acknowledge the fact that it is not the lack of time but differences over the issues that derailed the prospects of timely constitution. Without consensus on contentious issues such as integration of members of the People’s Liberation Army, dissolution of the Young Communist League, return of property seized by Maoists, guarantee of return of the internally-displaced people, and agreement on federal structure, the extension of the CA really does not make any sense. We can extend the CA by another five years and will still not have a constitution. And even if we ended up having one, the question of legitimacy will simply not go away. So what’s the point?

Doing something that is beyond the spirit of interim constitution is not the right thing to do. It is high time that we do the right thing rather than things that are easy or appear right. There is a huge difference between doing the right thing and doing things right. Doing things right is a moving target that is based upon influence, power and control. In other words, it is another way of conforming to a politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out. And, we all know where embarking on politically-correct agenda or taking the easy way out has gotten us. Many of those that took the credit for bringing the Maoists over ground are in the relentless process of reinventing themselves. They are now showcasing themselves as the wall of resistance against Maoist takeover. It is amazing to witness how easy it is to re-brand oneself in Nepal. By now, educated Nepalis, to whom country comes before political masters, must have gotten a good long look at the audacity of shamelessness, and seen how well it works out for those who dared try it.

The political parties should let the CA expire and brace for fresh election. At this juncture, facing the electorate is the right thing to do. It takes great character, conviction, and confidence to do the right thing, which is why it has become a rarity in Nepali politics. It would involve personal sacrifices, political risk, and standing against the incompetent bench warmers in the CA that are constantly looking out for short-cuts to save their job, but also provides an opportunity to come clean and separate oneself from those that are masquerading as democrats.

The silent majority awakens

2010-05-10T08:35:00.001-04:00

The Maoists’ “indefinite strike” aimed at dislodging the government hardly lasted a week. Comrades, who roared like lions while delivering their May Day speeches, appeared like wet kittens during the press conference organized to call off the strike. And, it all happened within a week. What forced the Maoists to call off their strike? It is a second major setback for them. The first being their unsuccessful attempt to bring down the government by obstructing the Constituent Assembly (CA).

People watching the press conference could easily tell that Pushpa Kamal Dahal was lying when he said the decision to call off the strike was due to the discomfort faced by the general public. While he slyly based his premise to call off the strike on discomfort of the general public, he contradicted the very stance within minutes by labeling thousands of anti-strike protesters conspiratorial puppets riled up by the government to ignite confrontation among the public. The audacity it takes to tell these lies, straight to people’s faces that have watched Dahal’s honest side in Saktikhor tape shows that he doesn’t really care about the truth.

Forget about the Saktikhor tape, it does not take much effort to find out the level of compassion that Dahal and his comrades have for common folks. The Maoists are still not letting thousands of people displaced during and after the insurgency to return home. Their property is yet to be returned. Every now and then the sister organizations of the Maoist party shuts down schools and colleges to prove their strength leaving children wondering about their future. The infamous acts of Young Communist Leaguers that have terrorized public are yet to stop.

If Dahal and his comrades were really serious about providing comfort to the people, they would have disbanded YCL long time ago, returned the seized properties, and instructed their ideologues in the guise of student leaders not to fiddle around with the educational sector. All these are sufficient to prove that Dahal’s reason to call off the strike is nothing but a lie.

Here are the real reasons why Dahal and his comrades called off the strike. The relationship between India and the Maoist party is getting worse, and India is hell-bent on not letting the revolutionaries come back to power unless they tone down their anti-India rhetoric. With India antagonized, the Maoists could not afford to lose the support of Europeans, specifically the Scandinavians. It would not reflect positively on the Scandinavians to support a party that pretty much makes the common folks life difficult.

To make the matter worse for the revolutionaries, a peace rally was organized by the Valley folks. The Maoists were caught off guard by the sheer number of participants in the peace rally. Thousands of people who participated in the rally provided a further jolt to the Maoists’ crippling strike. Diminishing returns and increasing domestic and international pressure were the real reasons why Dahal and his comrades called off the strike. Beneath the heaps of lies and deceptions, is the compulsion that transformed the roaring lions into feeble kittens.

We have to understand that the Maoists were forced to call off their indefinite strike. If they hadn’t called it off, it would have certainly invited bigger troubles for them. Had the Maoists gone berserk, the government would have been left with only one option, ie, to deploy the army. In the worst case scenario, the CA would have been dissolved. The mobilization of the army would have stalled the so-called peace process, which the Maoists have abused to every possible extent for their benefit, and which has so far produced everything but peace. With the dissolution of the CA, they would no longer have the status of the largest party, from which, comes their demand to lead the government. The Maoists took the lumps because they realized that they were treading on dangerous grounds. Swallowing pride when cornered is straight from the radical communists’ playbook.

For now, the Maoists’ push for mobocracy has been defeated. But the battle is far from over. The Maoists have withdrawn, temporarily, but have not completely ejected themselves from the game. They will reassess the failure, re-plan, and strike again in the future, for sure. Let’s not be mistaken. They are in this game to win, not to let others win. They fought the decade-long insurgency because they want to dislodge the system and establish the one that works for them. The parties finally seem to realize the Maoists’ intentions and end goals. Whether it is the survival instinct that has kicked in or the international players’ warnings, the realization seems to have come to the Maoist leaders, finally.

The brighter side of the Maoists’ failed attempt to promote mobocracy is that it has riled up the silent majority and sidelined the Maoist supporters in the guise of civil society advocates and human rights activists. The silent majority, whom the Maoists have been taking for a free ride and whose power they have been undermining, is, finally, waking up. This is also an indication that people are willing to confront the comrades if the government is really serious about tightening the noose on the Maoists. The appeasement of radicals has never brought peace anywhere in the world. It is good that the post 12-point agreement has all but vanished. We need pragmatists who understand the threat and dare to deal with it. The politics of lies and deceptions that Dahal and his fellow comrades have been using should be brought to an end once and for all. They should be stopped from coming to the power at any cost unless they reform themselves completely, and fulfill their past commitments and promises.

Way out

2010-04-26T11:34:00.002-04:00

Finally, the politicians are acknowledging that constitution will not be drafted by May 28. However, they are yet to acknowledge their personal responsibility in the failure. Everyone has their scapegoat ready. If you are someone with a radical bent, by now you must be convinced that it is the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML’s fault. For the NC and CPN-UML sympathizers, it is all because of the Maoists lack of interest in drafting the constitution. Finger pointing and the blame game will continue for a while.

With the chances of promulgating the constitution by May 28 getting slimmer with each passing day, some politicians and pundits have already started floating the idea of extending the deadline. The deadline should not be extended for two reasons. First, rewarding incompetence is a horrible idea. It would set a wrong precedence. The absence of an adequate mechanism to reward the competent and, as a corollary, weed out the incompetent, is perhaps the most important factor that discourages talented youngsters from joining politics. Second, the politicians have promised heaven and earth to the people. In order to garner support, the Maoists and mushrooming ethnic parties have promised rights and resources to every ethnic group that they found would benefit them. They genuinely think that pursuing ethnic agenda will politically profit them down the road. Given the fact that the Maoists and ethnic parties are not going to budge on ethnic agenda, the NC, UML, and other smaller parties of yesteryears, frankly do not see room for negotiations. Giving in to the Maoist and ethnic parties’ demands means constricting their own base. So it is not the lack of time but refusing to rise above petty party interests that has stalled the drafting of constitution.

For a viable constitution to be drafted, there has to be a minimum understanding between the major political parties. In the current adversarial environment, reaching any kind of consensus looks almost impossible. Therefore, instead of pushing for an extension of the deadline, what is needed now is a real sincere push toward the creation of an environment, whereby a constitution that is acceptable to the majority of the population can be drafted. It is not enough that we have a constitution. There has to be a consensus on the need to honor the one that we will eventually end up having. Or else, the very people engaged in drafting it will start running away from it as fast as their legs can carry them.

It is important to lessen the hostilities and create an environment suitable for consensus. In order to create that environment, we need to have a national unity government. But before the national unity government is put in place, there should be an all-party agreement on contentious issues that derailed the possibility of having the constitution on time in the first place. With the rise of the possibility of getting into the government, politicians will be more willing to make compromises. As a regional power, and more than that, as the one that orchestrated and solemnized the marriage between the democratic forces and the radical communists, which was sure to end up in a nasty divorce not due to the ideological differences but due to the equal greed for power, India has the biggest role to play in bailing Nepal out of the current mess. It is not just because cleaning one’s mess is a moral imperative, but also because a rogue neighbor can be a pain in the neck. With Pakistan to its west and Bangladesh to its east, the last thing India wishes for is a rogue neighbor to its north.

The problem that India has when it comes to dealing with Nepal’s perpetual mess, which is partly of its own making, is that its script is often like a B-grade Bollywood movie. It appears promising in the beginning but soon falls apart. What is needed is a tight script and professional directorial venture that very well takes into consideration the dubious nature of the characters. First and foremost, it is important to understand where these characters come from, where they stand, and what they want to achieve at the end of the day. If one is to look closely, it becomes very evident that all of them want the same thing, ie, power.

In their quest for power, the Maoists want to subvert the rule of the majority through mass mobilization. They basically want to paralyze the government through their urban-centric uprising. While the Maoists want to inculcate a sense of fear among the people and paralyze the government, which they think will eventually pave their path to power, the non-Maoist parties, especially the bigger ones, want to portray the Maoists’ urban-centric uprising as a prelude to government takeover. The Maoists are not that stupid to take over power forcibly like some NC and UML politicians seem to suggest. They know it very well that it is not feasible to capture the state and run it in a fragmented political landscape like the one we are presently in. NC and UML leaders have their own interests in portraying the Maoists as dictators in making, which does have some truth to it though. They want to use it as a basis to justify their right to remain in power indefinitely.

It is almost impossible that political parties will find a solution to the existing political stagnation on their own. The deficit of trust is so wide that no side is willing to blink. It is sad but true that without Indian intervention, the current mess is not going to get sorted out. India needs to act immediately. If the current political system that relies on India’s “stabilizing” role breaks down, there will be an undeclared civil war in the country. The best way to salvage the current situation is by cutting a deal with Pushpa Kamal Dahal. And, this is the best time to do that. Get the most out from his unquenchable thirst for power. Dangle the prime ministerial lollypop in front of him and make him agree to things like dissolution of the infamous Young Communist League, and return of seized property. If he does not agree to that, bargain for inclusion of the smallest possible number of Maoist combatants in the security forces. Given the power-hungry nature of Dahal, this is the best time to get concessions on many important issues, which if not resolved soon, pose greater threat to peace, stability and democracy.

Expedite the process and get it done within a couple of months. In the meantime, someone else can head the government to satisfy Dahal’s narcissistic ego. Once the weapons are firmly under the government’s control, PLA integration issue is amicably settled and the YCL is disbanded, Dahal can head the national unity government where all parties in then expired constituent assembly will be incorporated based on their respective strengths. It may be a tall order but worth pursuing. Establishing a national unity government by making Dahal first deliver on pertinent issues is the only safest way to get out of this current mess.

India's diminishing options

2010-04-13T12:53:00.002-04:00

In his signature speech last week at Khulla Manch, Pushpa Kamal Dahal said what lower rung Maoists leaders have been tirelessly regurgitating since then: There could be no peace or constitution as long as Madhav Kumar Nepal’s (MKN) government is in place. But more important to ponder upon is what he shied away from saying. There can be no peace or constitution as long as MKN’s government is there does not mean that Dahal will allow his own party to join the government as a coalition member or support someone else to head the government. What Dahal meant is that for peace to be restored and constitution to be drafted by the stipulated date, he should be allowed to form the government.

Given India’s reluctance to let Dahal get back to the corridors of power and Dahal’s own stance of non-cooperation in constitution making unless he is allowed back, it is almost certain that the constitution will not be promulgated within the stipulated timeframe. It is unfortunate that millions of tax payers’ money has been already spent for the two-year deadline which will most likely be missed.

Besides India, several Nepali political parties, whose political base has been cut short do not want the Maoists to come to power. While Pushpa Kamal Dahal wants deliverance of peace and constitution on his terms, and only if and when he is allowed to head the government, other players too have not given up their claims to rule the nation altogether. Strangely, their authority to rule the nation comes not from their ability to establish good governance, maintain law and order, or bring peace, but from the political polarization resulting from rapidly degrading relationship between the Maoist party and India. The Maoists’ gross miscalculation of the consequences of vilifying India proved to be costlier than they expected. It is not to say that India is in a better position when it comes to realizing its security interests in Nepal. It, too, is in a tight spot.

India knows that MKN’s government is incompetent but there are no viable alternatives for it to tap into. The minute it dislodges the current government and puts together another one under the leadership of a non-leftist leader, it is almost certain to trigger migration of the likes of Bamdev Gautam to the Maoist party. This will make the number game politics being played out to keep the Maoists at bay very unpredictable. The last thing India would want to do is go after politicians who has stooped to the level of forging travel documents for reimbursement to keep the government of its liking intact.

The existing political stagnation cannot last for ever. How politics will unfold in the coming days and months will largely depend on how far the Maoists and India are willing to go to seek an upper hand. While Maoists have the indoctrinated foot soldiers, battle hardened guerillas, and sympathy of the poor and ethnic minorities, India has the money. Top leaders of the major political parties, whose popular base has been cut short, and hence, have to rely on India’s benevolence to have any significance. But most importantly, India has Nepali Army in its grip, which after the Maoists’ attempt to sack its previous chief and reluctance in extending the tenure of eight brigadiers has found a savior in the Indian establishment. Given India’s reluctance to put together a democratic alliance to fight out the Maoists surge in Nepal makes it clear that India has realized the transaction costs of putting together such an alliance and maintaining it will cost higher than letting the controlled instability reign. India might have come to a conclusion that getting the Nepali Army out of the barrack, if and when the Maoists go berserk is more cost-effective with guaranteed outcome than investing in Nepali politicians, whose allegiance are often questionable.

There is no doubt that the Maoists should reform before they are allowed to head or join the government. They need to heed to the promises made in the past. Return the seized properties and dissolve the para-military structure of its youth wing the Young Communist League (YCL). Expecting their moderation after they join the government would be purely daydreaming. The moderation of radicals while in power has never happened in the world history. Had this historical fact been acknowledged and dealt upon accordingly in the past, the Maoist party today would have been a more disciplined and sober political force.

Taming the Maoists at this juncture is extremely difficult because Pushpa Kamal Dahal needs indoctrinated foot soldiers, dogmatists, and battle hardened YCL more than ever, as he has lost the support of India, a major player and the “decider” of who remains in power and who does not in Nepal. Given Dahal’s dubious character, India wants him to first fulfill the promises he made in the past and tame dogmatists within his party, whom he has been subtly portraying as lunatics lurking in the background, ready to go blow their top any moment. To Dahal’s dismay, the very things that India wants him to do before allowing him to get back to power are things that will make him unpopular and may be irrelevant in front of the mass that made him what he is today. Dahal had the real opportunity to defang the dogmatists while in power but the train has already left the platform. Dahal will continue to play a “rebel rouser” for his political survival if nothing else.

As far as India is concerned, it too does not have many options at hand. Citizens do not have an indefinite appetite for incompetence. Sometime down the road, people will eventually get fed up with the current government, whose ministers are forging documents to claim reimbursement. There is a limit to nonsense. It cannot go on for ever. And, when that day arrives, the ground will have swollen in favor of the Maoists. Dahal may then very well use that golden opportunity to make his men do what the opposition recently did in Kyrgyzstan. If and when that fateful day comes, there is very little that the politicians now in power or the Army that India is banking on to safeguard its interest will be able to do. In the process of taming Pushpa Kamal Dahal, we should not be challenging narcissism.

The safest way to avert impending crisis is by keeping Dahal and other power hungry Maoists engaged. Re-run of what the Maoists did with GPK will do the trick. It is advisable to lure Dahal with power and somehow make him fulfill the promises he made in the past. Once that happens, other political parties will be in a better position to challenge the Maoists both on the ground and on ballot boxes. It is important to create that situation if peace and stability is what India really wants in Nepal.

Setting the Record Right

2010-03-29T10:50:00.001-04:00

Scores of people have written about Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK) since his demise. From incidents such as the flight that they took together with GPK to the advice that they gave him were meticulously recollected in order to highlight their association. Strangely, people did not hesitate to reap creative mileage from his death. Instead of sincerely highlighting his achievements and fallacies, which is important to set the record straight, they used the opportunity to toot their own horns. The rarest and the biggest example of duplicity came from none other than the Maoist duo Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai. It was quite obnoxious to learn that the Maoists duo that lured him with presidency, but eventually double-crossed him in the last minute, considered his passing away as a demise of a guardian. Hypocrisy at its best!

GPK might not be anywhere near in terms of moral virtues that Mahatma Gandhi had or selflessness that Nelson Mandela practices, but to fight relentlessly for democracy for decades is not something that everyone can or will be willing to do. One may argue that living in the proximity of one of the world’s greatest socialist thinkers like B P Koirala could have planted the virtues of democracy in a megalomaniac, but understanding virtues of democracy alone is not enough when it comes to making democracy work for the common men, which is what happened in the case of GPK. I am not particularly enthused at discussing GPK’s checkered past, considering that he is no more with us and that culturally we avoid talking about someone’s shortcomings after their demise. But, in weighing his achievements and fallacies, I find it important that between the eulogies, the unending praises and the references to GPK as a “maverick” that we take a moment to step away and be just to history. Revisionist history, especially in matters that may frame the future of modern Nepal, can be harmful, and, hence, must be avoided at all costs.

Making mistakes is human. In between birth and death, certain things are bound to happen one of them being mistakes. Like everyone else, GPK had his share. What sets his mistakes apart from common men’s is that they could have impacted the dreams of millions of Nepalis clamoring for a just, prosperous, and peaceful Nepal. They could have had far reaching consequences. Political pundits that churned out articles left and right after GPK’s demise made an interesting argument about what would Nepal be like had GPK not stood for democracy? But that is only one side of the coin. Given the fact that he had already achieved what he fought for the good part of his life through restoration of democracy in 1990, his ability to provide democratic dividends to the citizenry also needs to be evaluated—thoroughly.

Given the international goodwill he enjoyed and respect he commanded at home, at least in the early days of restoration of democracy, what would have Nepal looked like had he understood the importance of intra-party democracy, strengthening of institutions, quelling political corruption, enhancement of social justice and equality, and strict handling of the process of mainstreaming the Maoists, to name a few?

GPK ruthlessly destroyed the political career of his contemporaries. Ganesh Man Singh and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s political careers were cut short to promote his own. Had he allowed intra-party democracy to take root, NC would not have been left with just mediocre leaders that they have today. The party does not have a dynamic leader that can effectively energize the base, forget about energizing the nation and bringing it together. Intra-party democracy fosters emergence of competent leaders. When GPK became the prime minister in 1991 for the first time, the current president of the United States was a visiting Law and Government Fellow at the University of Chicago Law School. None beyond his family and friend circle really knew him. It is the transparent intra-party political system that allowed an African-American man and the son of a single mother with limited means to become the president of the most powerful nation on earth. Given the role that intra-party democracy has on the emergence of a leader, can we truthfully ignore what he did to perpetuate his hegemony within NC and its implications on the emergence of future leaders?

GPK repeatedly inducted people implicated for political corruption in his cabinet. Instead of using people like Pradeep Giri, whose potential to this date remains unexplored, he repeatedly chose to be surrounded by the same herd irrespective of their fading public persona. This led the emergence of a political caste – a sort of Brahminical caste. His turning of blind eye to massive political corruption ultimately created an ethical disequilibrium as the lines between good and evil thinned. It had a disastrous consequence on the moral fabric of the nation. Corruption trickled down to courtrooms, which is the last thing that a young nation struggling to remain requires. Dozens of judges are currently under investigation for corruption charges. We, as a nation, have been slipping in all indicators related to good governance, accountability, corruption, and this is not an effect of a single overnight incident. It a ripple effect of institutional failure resulting from letting the corrupt herd manipulate the system to their advantage.

Importance of social justice and equality never got GPK’s attention. The practice of nominating a handful of politicians belonging to ethnic minorities for important ministerial and other important positions to showcase ethnic equality, which had been the norm during the Panchayat era, continued unabated. When the time came to recognizing equality eventually, he signed an agreement with groups from a particular region, which was dead wrong. What the nation needs today is a comprehensive equality policy, not the oiling of squeaky wheels.

One of GPK’s greatest failures was not to understand the real intentions of the Maoists. They made him sleepwalk tirelessly to fulfill their own agendas and double-crossed him when it came to fulfilling their promise of supporting him for the first president of Nepal. His unabated appeasement of the Maoists created more problems than it solved. Whether his judgment was clouded by his failure to understand that appeasement never brings peace or by the Maoists coordinated lewd acts carried out in concert with his inner coterie shall always remain a subject of speculation.

When it comes to the prospects of democratic consolidation, he left the nation far worse off than the one he had inherited in 1991. He had a ‘clean slate’ back then. He could have utilized the opportunity to build and strengthen institutions, nurture the rise of competent politicians by promoting intra-party democracy, extract the loyalty of citizenry through big social reforms and comprehensive equality policy, and contain the decay of law and order through strict handling of the Maoists. We might have been better off compared to where we would have been otherwise, but we are way behind from what we could have achieved had GPK been a more thoughtful and visionary persona. GPK was really good at seizing the opportunity, but when it came to translating them into success for all, that is where he failed, and failed miserably. He has left us a country, where the promise of the dividends of democracy and the resultant expectation of it by Nepalis remain illusory.

Setting the Record Right

2010-03-29T10:48:00.001-04:00

Work together

2010-03-15T10:54:00.000-04:00

Less than three months remain before the deadline set for promulgation of a new constitution expires. Except for the likes of Subash Nembamg, who can with a straight face claim the possibility of the impossible, even the perpetual optimists that believe in the last minute miracles in Nepali politics have given up hope. The chances of having a new constitution by the stipulated date are pretty slim, if not impossible.

It may be difficult for many to understand why there is no concerted effort toward drafting the constitution. The simple answer to this question is that for politicians it is not the priority. The progress toward meeting the deadline is not attached to the pay and perks of the politicians in the Constituent Assembly (CA). It is a classic example of what could happen if the pay is not contingent upon the performance and deliverables. Even if the politicians make it a priority, the chances of reaching an agreement in issues such as federalism is highly unlikely. So why spend time and energy on doing a thing that is going nowhere? Makes perfect sense!

Although the country witnessed a revolution, the nature of Nepali politics has not changed. Instead of working together to tackle the issues confronting the nation, the politicians aim to outfox each other. Increasingly widening deficit in trust, especially between the radical left and the centrist forces, is perpetuating a system that is not just Machiavellian but outright Hobessian.

While the Maoist party is struggling hard to maintain its ballooned support base, the centrist forces that ruled the country for the good part of the last two decades are having a hard time minimizing the defection of their cadres to the newly-emerged ethnic groups and to the Maoist camp. The political vacuum that Maoists had aimed to fill after the uprooting of the monarchy has not been as easy as anticipated. Ethnic grievances which the Maoists cashed in during the insurgency have been successfully hijacked by the newly-mushroomed ethnic parties. Lack of a visible enemy that they can claim important to defeat for the establishment of the dictatorship of the proletariat might have brought trepidation on the Maoist camp. In the absence of a visible enemy, a march to the promised land will remain on hold without any particular timeframe. This may eventually bewilder the cadres that might well then turn against the dream merchants.

The Maoists themselves are responsible for the state that they are presently in. The autocratic aspirations harbored by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his fellow comrades could not remain dormant for long. They wanted to neutralize the Nepal Army (NA), which they see as the biggest hurdle toward complete control over Nepali politics, early on in the game. The souring of the relationship with NA, which was not that good to begin with, was not a huge problem, but the decision to vilify India for their own political miscalculation was the biggest blunder they committed. The Maoist propagandists really shot themselves in the foot as they started shooting from their mouths.

Looking back, it becomes quite evident that the Maoists played the master manipulator and successfully herded the centrist forces to minefield but they seem to have no vision following that. Lack of their ability to outgrow the guerrilla mindset is the main reason behind the erosion of both the internal community’s goodwill and internal political support early on in the process. There was no reason to create Young Communist League (YCL) and continue marauding raids on innocent civilians after they came over-ground. If political insecurity was the reason behind YCL’s creation, they could have disbanded it after CA elections. The general public that had been betrayed time and again by the mainstream political parties for years had no reason to not support the Maoists had the Maoists fulfilled their promise of contributing toward establishing peace and stability.

It would, however, be quite unrealistic and insincere to blame only the Maoists for the current state of affairs. The major political parties are equally responsible for where we are now. Propaganda aside, unlike the major political parties that are yet to admit publicly that there has been a failure of intellect on their part in not realizing the Maoists’ real intentions, the Maoists have been inconsistently consistent about their end goal. They have been clear that at the end of the day, they want the dictatorship of the proletariat. We may choose to disagree with what they believe in or of the viability of their belief system in the current geopolitical context, but at least they have something that they believe in, and have a path charted out to achieve it.

As far as the major political parties are concerned, except for lofty promises, which they failed to deliver during their heydays, and instilling fear about what the Maoists would do to the nation if they have their way, there is nothing substantial that they have to offer to the general public. They are yet to realize that the best way to remain in power is by delivering. Instead of setting good examples so that they regain the trust of people, they are still clinging on the path that led them down. Look at what Madhav Kumar Nepal did to save his face in the aftermath of the broad daylight murder of two media entrepreneurs. Instead of asking the home minister to resign, he forced the State Home Minister Mohammad Rizwan Ansari, who happens to be the only member from UML to win the CA election, to resign. What kind of message, if any, does this kind of action send? Poaching weaker targets to save face is not only bad politics but also bad governance.

Nobody deserves more blame for the country’s sorry state than the politicians. The 2006 April revolution had provided a perfect opportunity to reconcile their differences and start afresh toward building an egalitarian society. But realization of it appears bleaker with each passing day. The time has come for the centrist forces to realize that radical communism is here to stay. It’s better if they learnt to live and deal with it. As far as the Maoists are concerned, it’s time for them to come out of their guerilla mindset. It might be easier and safer for them to get to power through electoral means than by completely bringing down the existing system through another “revolution” which has to be violent if it is to achieve its objective. The later may be too risky and has its consequences.

And, let’s say even if they succeeded in achieving it, it may not last for long. Even if it lasts for sometime, the possibility of what Cambodian Khmer Rouge leaders are facing now in the international criminal court will always remain a possibility. Khmer Rouge leaders too believed that their movement was for the betterment of people, didn’t they? Given the risks associated with bringing down the state, adhering to electoral politics may be a safer bet.

Loot Continues Unabated

2010-03-01T10:49:00.001-05:00

Life in Nepal may be tough for hardworking people that are struggling to make ends meet but for politicians in general, and ministers in particular, life and luck can’t get any better. Politicians to a large extent are a dishonest lot, especially when it comes to making money, and that is true everywhere. The only difference is that some make money more smartly whereas others are too naïve to understand the repercussions of blatant corruption.

Unlike in poor developing countries like ours with weak institutions, in well-established Western democracies with strong institutions, educated electorates and a vigilant media, politicians have limited opportunity to misuse their position for financial gains. The chances of getting caught or voted out after being exposed make it hard for them to engage in shameless corruption like the one that Ram Chandra Kushwaha was involved in.But this is Nepal, so the level to which our politicians stoop to make money through illegal means should not be equated with what happens in most other countries. In order to experience the joy of freedom that is there in the kind of corruption that Kushwaha engaged himself in or Sujata Koirala wants to experience through the passport deal, you have to be in Nepal.

What Kushwaha did is nothing new in Nepal and everyone knows that. This is not the first time it has happened and will not be the last time either. Corruption in teacher appointments has become a regular phenomenon and will not stop with Kushwaha’s infamous exit. Kushwaha, as a matter of fact, is a small fish in the water that is infested with sharks such as Sujata. Look at the scale of corruption they get implicated for. It is altogether a different thing that they never get indicted because of the dysfunctional anti-corruption agency and judiciary, whose pitiful status to a large extent is a direct result of political interference.The latest feather in Sujata’s corrupt hat might well be the passport deal with the Indian Security Printers (ISP), which she actually may be able to pull off, given the fact that the Madhav Kumar Nepal’s government’s fate to a great extent rests on Girija Prasad Koirala’s support and India’s “goodwill”. Madhav Nepal, who is enjoying the power without having to deliver, is well aware of the rewards that come with serving India’s interest. So, personally, I would not be surprised, if the Indian company finally gets the contract.

To ordinary citizens, it simply does not make sense why Sujata does not want to accept cheaper deals that other firms are offering. But think about it from Sujata’s point of view. For her, it makes a heck of a sense! Besides the financial benefits, she is well aware of the brownie points she will be scoring by giving the contract to ISP. Who says Sujata does not have political acumen?Amidst the gloom, the role of the media in exposing corrupt politicians is praiseworthy. In a country where the power of the corruption-controlling institutions have been gutted through political manipulation and where some 70 incumbent judges across the country have been accused of irregularities, the media’s role is not only necessary but also essential. Only then will we be able to save Nepal from becoming Afghanistan, which is the only country in South Asia that is more corrupt than Nepal according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI).

For some, political corruption may be something that is not as bothersome as the deteriorating law and order situation in the country. But, if you look at the knocking effects of political corruption, it becomes pretty evident that corrupt societies are certain to be weak in maintaining law and order, have corrupt judiciary, low level of economic development, and bad governance. For example, look at where Philippines, which was once Asia’s second-richest country – only behind Japan – is now as a result of perpetual political corruption. Political corruption is dangerous because it trickles down to common people, and as a result, becomes acceptable in the society. Still wonder why Nepal has been consistently slipping in the Transparency International’s corruption index year after year?

Corruption destroys a nation both politically and financially by decreasing the efficiency of public spending, reducing budget revenues, raising the budget deficit, hindering foreign direct investment, reducing the effectiveness of the use of aid, dissipating political legitimacy, and hindering democratic development. So, as corruption flourishes, which has been the case for a while now, the chances are that we will end up becoming poorer and less democratic.

The ever flexible and indicator-less terms of reference of building “New Nepal” is slowly but surely turning the country into a dysfunctional state from where flight of both human and financial capital is expected to gain even more momentum in future. With social capital in tatters because of ethnic polarization, the pre-requisites to building a prosperous Nepal is simply not there at this point in time. But reversing the tide is not impossible at all. There are many countries around the world, Rwanda being one, that have bounced back from the brink of collapse. Rwanda, which was not very long ago written off as a basket case, is now ranked as one of the top reformers in the latest Doing Business report. Things can be turned around.

By recalling Kushwaha from the cabinet, Tarai Madhes Democratic Party has demonstrated a fair sense of responsibility, which is quite frankly, unprecedented in Nepali politics. It remains to be seen for how long Sujata will be able to have a field day before she is held accountable and for how long Ram Chandra Poudel and others will shamelessly live with her nonsense out of fear of retaliation from her octogenarian father.

Stop speculating

2010-02-15T10:03:00.000-05:00

The murder of media entrepreneur Jamim Shah in the heart of the capital has exposed the ineptitude of the country’s internal security apparatus and degenerating security situation in the country. Was the murder, which the media is already calling a contract killing, connected to his allegiance with infamous underworld fugitive Dawood Ibrahim and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Agency (ISI), or is it a calculated ploy meant to send chills in the spines of those that dare to work for the forces that are odds with the Indian establishment? Is it a mere coincidence that Shah has been murdered at a time when the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the largest party in Nepal, is in a jingoistic mode, or happened, now, just because it is more convenient to execute the plan, as the internal security is in shambles? We may never have the answers to these questions but they are worth pondering upon.

As one who happens to know about Shah based on stories carried out by various newspapers and magazines, to me he comes across as a cosmopolitan man of diverse experience. Born in a Newari neighborhood and married to a Hindu girl, his life story exemplifies both the possibility of coexistence and breaking of the religious shackles, which in a traditional society like ours is not an easy thing. For a Muslim man to marry a Hindu girl, that too, a quarter of a century ago, in a Hindu kingdom, needed a bit of courage without doubt. It shows that his sense of progression definitely stretched beyond the rhetoric unlike of our present day politicians.

Shah did not buy his way into the Constituent Assembly (CA) in order to become a part of the history of building a “New Nepal” like many businessmen in Nepal. In a nation, where the difference between politicians and businessmen is getting increasingly blurred and where crime and corruption is edging out politics, we all stand benefited from Shah’s detrainment. But these aspects never got reported. For Shah, the media trials never ended. Even though he was never convicted in a court of law for his associations and criminal activities that might have resulted from it, trials by media severely damaged Shah’s reputation by creating a widespread perception of guilt regardless of any verdict.

The ghastly murder of Shah has basically shown two things. First, Nepali media pretty easily gets sucked into the propaganda fed by unseen forces and foreign media. Second, Nepali politicians have learned nothing from past blows in our gut. This is not the first time that a Nepali citizen implicated as working for Dawood Ibrahim and ISI has been murdered in a broad daylight. Remember Mirza Dil Sad Beg’s murder couple of years ago? He too was implicated as one of Dawood’s men in Nepal. Both of these men had one thing in common- unproven allegiance to Dawood Ibrahim and the ISI.

What about the Nepali citizens who have allegiance with Chhota Rajan, the break away Hindu faction of Dawood’s gang or the Research and Analysis Wing [RAW], an Indian Intelligence Agency? Despite the fact that Nepali politicians visit New Delhi more than regional politicians from within India itself and a media house reportedly being run on Indian benevolence, we never hear any negativity surrounding the relationships. None in particular has been implicated like Shah had been for his or her association with the RAW or the Chhota Rajan’s gang. Indian media is silent about it and so is the Nepali media. This raises an interesting question. Is Indian media selectively feeding its Nepali counterpart on the links that Nepali citizens have with the Dawood Ibrahim gang and the ISI or the relationship of Nepali citizens with the India’s RAW and Rajan’s gang is legal and transparent and that it does not require any mention in the media?

Nepali citizens are being repeatedly butchered for their unproven allegiance to the underworld fugitive and foreign intelligence agency but all our government does is set up inquiry commissions, whose findings are at best inconclusive, and end up collecting dusts. If you think rationally, it is not even worth setting a commission, anymore. Instead of the media subtly hinting that Shah deserved his fate, it should be pointing finger at the government, which is so incompetent that the security apparatus under its watch failed to apprehend criminals that murdered a prominent citizen in the heart of the city.

Appending the killers of Shah is important because it will once and for all expose the forces that murder Nepali citizens in their own land for alien motives. As a nation, we deserve the right to know, why Nepali citizens are maligned and murdered over and over again, don’t we? Nobody expects the current government to get to the bottom and find out if Shah was really working for Dawood, or for that matter, ISI, but it can do the minimum—provide some solace to his grieving wife, son, and father, who are paying the price of living in a lawless land, by at least finding out if the killers were really from the Chhota Rajan Gang or someone else was involved in the foul play.

The Nepali media should once and for all stop this game of subtly hinting “Who is working for whom?” and force the government to pursue on hard evidence so that culprits get punished for their unlawful allegiance and innocent citizens are not dragged into the neighboring countries’ perennial animosity. If we really get into this game of speculating “who is working for whom?”, we may soon reach a point whereby we realize that there are none at the highest level of the government and the opposition party that put nation’s interest before his or her own interest. If anything, such deduction would inflict more pain. Why pursue that path?

Living in interesting times

2010-02-01T00:52:00.000-05:00

Recently, the Constituent Assembly (CA) Sub-Committee on State Restructuring and Distribution of State Powers came up with the anxiously-awaited state restructuring plan. They proposed two alternative models to choose from. While the first model had 14 provinces [Khaptad, Karnali, Tharuhat, West Madhes, Magarat, Tamuwan, Tamsaling, Newa, Sunkoshi, Kirat, Limbuwan, Madhes and Birat], the second one had six provinces [Karnali, Gandaki, Sagarmatha, Srijanga, Lumbini (Bhawar) and Simraungadh (Janakpur)]. The full committee forwarded the 14-province model to the CA with a few amendments. Although there is little chance, given the pace at which political agreements on issues of national importance are reached, that any agreement will be reached by May 28, 2010, the CA now has something to show off, no matter how inferior the models might be.Remaining insincere towards people’s need and the nation’s progress while drawing a paycheck can be at best called a morally-repugnant act. CA members should either stop draining the state’s coffer or get back to business.

One may argue that having to choose from models that creates unsustainable federal system is worse than having none. The argument rings true, but the problem with that kind of reasoning is that it does not take into consideration the context that we are in. Let’s not forget that we live in an ultra-progressive nation, where populist beliefs guide political strategies and ends justify the means. So searching logic and economic reasoning behind the proposed federal models is like pondering over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s sanity. And, voicing for referendum over the various federal models proposed from within and outside the CA is like proposing Osama Bin Laden be baptized so that islamofascism can come to an end. It is simply not going to happen.

It is not going to happen for two simple reasons. First, it is not politically-profitable for the new entrants of Nepali politics. Second, in Nepal, issues of national importance have never been decided as per the wishes of people. They are decided based on whether or not the top echelons of the major political parties and the intelligentsia aligned with the political parties benefit from the major overhaul. Anxiety and pain of common men, which politicians claim to understand, is forgotten immediately after these little guys dip their finger in purple ink in voting booths. That is where their participation in democracy ends. What happens after that is ill-justification of political mandate and making that mandate profitable for the ruling elites and the so-called intellectuals that line up to justify the political crimes committed by their bosses.

Both politicians – most of whom are from the political parties of yesteryears – and intellectuals who claim to understand the negative repercussions of creating ethnic states have to understand that selective application of logic does not work. What is happening in Nepal defies all logic. While the real estate market has nosedived worldwide, there is a real estate boom in Nepal. In between the two fastest growing economies, economic indicators continue to worsen. I remember studying that if you keep an object in between two hot bodies, it also heats up but that logic, too, fails in the case of Nepal.

Much-needed social reforms, devolution of power, and empowerment of ethnic minorities never got into political radar in the last two decades. An alarm did not go off even when the Maoists promised for an ethnic federation. Forget that, the makers of 1990 constitution, most of whom are still in circulation in politics, instead of proposing to make it more inclusive, which would have saved both time and money, ran away from it as fast as their legs could carry them. When you run away from the child that you father, the chances that your future relationships being seen as promiscuous are almost 100 percent. Plus, the political change that we are now witnessing now in Nepal is largely ethnic-based.

All along the way, everyone, be it those arousing the ethnic masses that have been bypassed by the state or those that apply logic to negativities of ethnic federation, knew that social mobilization had outstripped the institutional capacity. But none confronted the truth. The former did not confront it because pushing social mobilization to a farthest possible point was politically expedient for them. In politics, it is political base that matters, not the truth. For the later, the truth did not matter as long as it did not shake up the political foundations of political parties, whose prominence determined the fulfillment of their personal ambitions.

The debate over the viability of ethnic federalism is redundant at this point in time. The expectations of ethnic masses have been aroused beyond the state’s capacity to mange it within the existing set-up. And, the new federal structure that is other than ethnicity-based will not do any good to those pushing for ethnic federalism. Ethnic federalism may not be able to bring about the changes that ethnic minorities are clamoring for but remaining backward under the leadership of those that they see as their own will be more consoling. When someone our own lets us down, it hurts but also heals soon. The feeling is far better than betrayal at the hands of group that never realized the agony of how it feels to remain marginalized generation after generation. It makes perfect sense from ethnic minorities’ point of view to have faith on someone of their own no matter how chequered his or her past might have, because it provides a point to begin. The hope that someone capable from within their own ethnic group will takeover down the road is more reassuring than pinning the hope on elites from the other ethnic group, especially when the ethnic group in question is the one that never understood the pain before they were forced to. And now, when they appear to have understood, it is hard to believe whether their appreciation of pain is genuine or a ploy.

Ethnic federalism might not work like most things in Nepal but will be a good learning experience. People may eventually realize that in a globalized world, sharing resources and knowledge is the only way to achieve collective prosperity. Hopefully, by then, our so-called intellectuals too will emerge out as more wise beings that understand the fact that for people to understand and have faith in your reasoning behind why things should be done in a certain way, you first have to have guts in pointing fingers at the politicians of your own ethnic group when they commit political crimes or fail to deliver. Until then, let’s experience the joy of living in a nation that defies all logic!

Learn from the past

2010-01-18T19:55:00.000-05:00

There are hardly four months left for the term of the Constituent Assembly (CA) to expire. Looking at the politicians’ demeanor, it does not appear that they are genuinely concerned about the impending crisis. The day-to-day struggle for political survival has sucked out the sense of responsibility from Nepali politicians. Drafting the constitution seems to be the last thing in their mind. In a populist nation, where mere shifting of blame can get one out of trouble, their carefree attitude is well-justified.

Insincerity in Nepali politics becomes evident from the ongoing political mess. The political mess that the Maoists created by trying to get rid of Rookmangud Katawal last year is yet to be sorted out. Now, we have a High Level Political Mechanism (HLPM) under the leadership of Nepali Congress (NC) President Girija Prasad Koirala with Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Jhala Nath Khanal as members. Interestingly, one of the three men in-charge to sort out the existing mess is also the man (read Dahal) who created the mess in the first place. It is the Nepali way of righting the wrongs: Make the troublemaker a troubleshooter.

Some may find it as the only way to move forward, but as far as I am concerned, such measures will invite more problems than they can actually solve. The never-ending quest for shortcuts has led us to where we are now. It may troubleshoot the current problem but creating such a mechanism is wrong on so many levels. Measures like this one will allow personality cult to develop and turn the so-called top leaders into indispensable nannies. Common men’s faith on institutions will eventually fizzle out if the elected bodies such as the CA are bypassed, repeatedly. Solution to the existing and future political problems—this definitely will not be the last one—should be explored in the CA, not outside. Plus, a nation cannot and should not be run through never-ending series of deal makings.

Before getting into the necessity and fixes that mechanisms such as HLPM can bring about, it is necessary to take a step back and examine who creates these never-ending series of political mess, for which, we need these extra-constitutional mechanisms. The latest one started with the reinstatement of former Nepal Army Chief Katawal. Dahal and his men in the name of establishing civilian supremacy obstructed the CA for months and forced numerous nationwide strikes. After being unable to coerce the coalition members, Dahal is now all set to find a solution through HLPM. If you connect the dots, it becomes crystal clear that there is a method to the Maoists’ mode of operandi. Dahal and his top-level subordinate are using the Madman theory of politics!

While the politicians of the major political parties such as NC and CPN-UML often appear reasonable, which is not solely because of their level-headedness but compulsion, Dahal and his comrades warn Nepali public in general, and politicians of opposition parties in particular, that there is a mad figure hovering in the background who could go off the handle anytime. The unending series of nonsense that Dahal’s men were engaged in has not stopped altogether even after Dahal has been inducted as a member of the HLPM. Only last Friday, the Maoists’ waved black flags at President Dr Ram Baran Yadav in Panauti, Kavre district, when he arrived there to inaugurate a ceremony marking the Makar Mela. Dahal’s men are continuously engaged in activities that are aimed at undermining the strength of the state. If asked, none of the leaders at the helm of the affairs will own responsibility for such actions. As usual, they will shrug it by portraying it as an isolated incident. Over the years, the Maoists have perfected the Madman theory. By openly threatening the nation with bloodshed and turning gullible intelligentsia into fellow travelers through their populist agendas, the Maoists in Nepal have been able to achieve what other insurgent groups in South Asia can only dream of.

While Dahal and his men have mastered the Madman theory and have been using it very effectively to their benefit, the politicians on the other side of the isle such as Ram Chandra Poudel have perfected Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf nicknamed as “Baghdad Bob” theory—keep on claiming supremacy till you are doomed. Like Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, Saddam Hussein’s information minister, who claimed that there were no American troops in Baghdad and that the Americans were committing suicide by the hundreds at the city’s gates while the American tanks were rolling a few hundred meters from the location where he held the press conference, Poudel and the likes continue to bask upon past glory. Recently, during his speech at the Chatham House in London, Poudel put the blame for current instability and chaos squarely on the Maoists and vowed that the NC would not let the core values of open society, parliamentary politics, human rights and accountability be compromised. Poudel must be living in Bagdad Bob’s fantasy world to have missed what the Maoists did recently to his colleague duo Minendra Rijal and Prakash Sharan Mahat, who also represent NC in the current government. Rijal was manhandled and Mahat’s official vehicle has vandalized by Maoists cadres.

If history has taught us anything with regard to talking to the Maoists in the dark corridors, it is this: Striking deals in dark corridors gets us nowhere. There is a method to their madness; you got to understand that and learn to deal with it effectively. The only way to tame the Maoists is by defeating their agendas in the CA. Remember, living in a fantasy world got Bagdad’s Bob nowhere and the result will not be any different for those suffering from Baghdad Bob’s syndrome in Nepal. Wake up!

Will 2010 be any different?

2010-01-04T11:23:00.001-05:00

Nobody can tell for sure if 2010 will be any better than the year 2009. It is difficult to predict what the year 2010 holds for Nepal not because of the uncertain nature of Nepali politics but because the power to shape Nepal’s future no longer lies in the hands of Nepali politicians. The ruling coalition, although technically legitimate, continues to remain in power despite its lethal incompetence for a simple reason - India wants it to remain in power. The government is rudderless and more interested in its day-to-day survival than anything else.

It might be intellectually taxing for external observers trying to make sense out of how a twenty-two party coalition with diverse political ideologies and agendas continue to sail through by shutting out the largest party in parliament, but for someone that keeps a close eye on Nepali politics, it is not anything puzzling or new. Nepali political parties have long been transformed into subservient clients by India and this is not the first time that they are herded at India’s behest. An inconvenient truth about Nepali politics is that over the years India has successfully transformed Nepali political parties into subservient clients.

The fall of Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government over the Rookmangud Katawal’s controversy is a clear depiction of what could happen if a party dares to outgrow its client status. The withdrawal of support to Dahal’s government by the coalition members was the inability of the members to act against the Indian directives than anything else. The politicians in Nepal know very well that acting against the master’s wishes could prove to be fatal, politically.

Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire. Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists.After the fall of the Maoist government, Dahal and his fellow comrades have been trying their best to arouse nationalist fervor for political expediency. For people, who have closely watched the inception of the Maoist insurgency and its subsequent growth over the years, the role that India played in grooming Nepali Maoist party and unleashing it as a political force is no secret. The Maoists’ and India’s path crossed when Dahal tried repeating King Mahendra’s game of playing China card against India. In doing so, what Dahal and his fellow comrades failed to understand is that the internal political dynamics and the geopolitical realities had changed drastically over the years. Unlike B P Koirala, who then was unwilling to turn Nepal into a client state, there are way too many politicians that are happy to execute that role now. Dahal and his men were way off in calculating the level of India’s penetration in Nepali politics.

Out of power, the Maoists are now playing the nationalist card to drum-up support basically to force India to engage them. The Maoists know very well that in a nation with approximately half of the population around twenty-six years in age, which boasts of Nepal’s uncompromised sovereignty, anti-India rhetoric will always play out well. For these youngsters that grew up witnessing rising political corruption, lawlessness, and increasing Indian involvement in Nepali politics, it is quite natural to fall into the Maoists’ jingoistic trap. But before falling into the trap, it is important that the younger generation try and understand what the Maoist party that grew on Indian benevolence wants to gain out of the latest nationalist tirade. It is important to make sure that the Maoist party, which would definitely not have been what is today without India’s material and moral support, uses the support of the nationalists, especially the younger generation that boasts of uncompromised sovereignty of Nepal, to safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty, but not as a bargaining chip to outbid other clients’ will to serve Indian interests.

So what does it look like in terms of achieving peace and stability in 2010? The chances are slim! The chances are slim because the party that has the majority in the parliament is yet to realize the consequences of slowing down the process of drafting the constitution. After May 28, 2010, when the term of the CA expires, the political capital that arose from CA electoral victory will no longer be there for the Maoists to boast upon. There will be no venue for the Maoists, except for the streets, to vent their anger.

The politicians of the current coalition most of whom have been reduced to poodles that are willing to tirelessly wag the tail at India’s behest will be the ones that will benefit the most if the constitution is not drafted on time. If the Maoists are real nationalists, they should realize that the best way to reduce Indian interference in Nepal is by ensuring that there is a constitution by the end of May, which will ensure future elections. The Maoists can reduce Indian interference by winning elections handsomely even though some danger of Indian-administered split of the party will always remain a possibility. Let the actions replace rhetoric this time around.Peace in Nepal, in 2010, is only possible if the Maoists realize the danger associated with letting the stipulated time for constitution-drafting expire.

Once the CA term expires, it will be easier for the government that India puts together to go after the Maoists. As a matter of fact, many politicians within the various political parties want that to happen. With no safe haven to seek refuge in, unlike in the past, the Maoists will be at the receiving end. The Maoists still have the real opportunity to translate the impending crisis into an opportunity. Speed up the constitution-drafting process so that elections can take place in future.

With the kind of support the Maoist party commands on the ground, Dahal can once again emerge victorious. All he has got to do is control criminal activities that the YCL and his militant labor union are engaged in. A little extra effort to win the support of educated and civilized mass that the Maoist party lacks at the moment will do no harm.If Dahal fails to the see the writing on the wall and act swiftly in the next couple of weeks, we will not have peace anytime soon. Peace will only come after India completely turns the Maoist party into one of its subservient clients ready to serve Indian interests.

No matter what it says, India wants Nepal to be a client state and they have not been this close anytime in the history of Nepal in realizing their goal.

Selective justice

2009-12-21T11:29:00.000-05:00

On Dec 12, Major Niranjan Basnet – a prime accused in the torture and murder of Maina Sunar – was arrested and taken into custody by the Military Police. The arrest of Basnet has gotten lately dormant human rights groups all excited, who now want him to be tried in a civilian court. What is wrong with that? If we look at it purely from a judicial point of view, there is nothing wrong with that. Trying security personnel in civilian court might flood courts and outstrip their institutional capacity but other than that, there should be no problem trying him in the court. But the issue here is not whether or not he should be tried in the civilian court. The larger issue here is whether or not there is a pattern when it comes to holding people accountable for human rights abuses. If we take a step back and look at the people that human rights groups in Nepal want to be put on trial, it soon becomes crystal clear that these groups want selective justice.

Why just smaller fishes like Basnet or for that matter only security personnel? Why not Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Baburam Bhattarai and the likes that initiated the insurgency in the first place? Shouldn’t the people that initiated insurgency, and under whose watch, the Maoists cadres mercilessly butchered innocent civilians be held accountable for their crimes? Personally, I have not seen any human rights activists calling for prosecution of Dahal, Bhattarai and the likes for human rights abuses in public. Am I the one that missed Nepali human rights activists’ call for comprehensive justice or is it them who are in a secret mission of poaching soft targets? Looking at what human rights groups in Nepal are engaged in, it becomes clear that they are driven by political agendas. When it comes to deciding who to go after, they are clearly not merely seeking judicial justice. It is profoundly political.

Human rights abusers have to be punished irrespective of who they are and what their position is in the society. It is not only the state, more specifically, the Nepali Army, which is responsible for the past human rights abuses in Nepal. What about the human rights abuses committed by the then CPN (Maoist)? The Maoists that killed journalists Birendra Sah and Dikendra Thapa are still untouched and human rights activists do not seem to be very enthusiastic in making sure that their children have faith in human rights defenders when they grow up. The daughters of Armed Police Force Chief Late Krishna Mohan Shrestha are still waiting for justice to be served. By now, the children of Brigadier General Sagar Bahadur Pandey, who along with his wife was killed by the landmine set up by the Maoists’ in 2003, must have given up their hope of seeing the killers of their parents being punished. It is not only the security personnel but also civil servants that were butchered by the Maoists during the insurgency. The Maoists insurgents that killed Chief District Officer Damodar Pant in Jumla in 2002 are yet to be brought to justice. In many instances, not only the people that were performing their duties, but their family members, too, were targeted. In 2005, the Maoists wiped out an entire family of a policeman, including three women in the family and a one-year old child, at Attariya in Kailali district. Why aren’t the human rights activists talking about the rights of a child that was fourteen years younger than Sunar?

In a poor country like Nepal, where an individual’s future potential is contingent upon the endowment his or her family possesses and where endowment determines entitlements, shouldn’t the Maoists that wiped out these kids’ income-generating parents be held responsible for destroying their future potential? Strangely, the human rights community seems to have no compassion for the loss suffered by the people whose loved ones were killed serving the nation. These people were there not because they wanted to fight the insurgents that wanted to bring down the state on their own. They were there because the state wanted them to be there and defend the state. The human rights community might not have realized this but by keeping silent on the plight of the family members of all fallen heroes, they are demoralizing thousands of servicemen that genuinely want to contribute towards peace, stability and security of the nation.

By cherry-picking the selected cases involving security personnel and remaining silent on the atrocities committed by the Maoists, human rights activists in Nepal are making it easier for the government, which is increasingly tilting towards the right to accuse them of being “leftist delinquents.” If these right groups do not correct their ways, they will be increasingly seen and treated as enemies instead of allies in the advancement of human rights. The governments in poor developing countries do not human rights groups seriously because these groups themselves time and again show that they have political agendas. It is high time that the human rights groups in Nepal analyze both their actions and inactions and the far-reaching consequences of both. Protecting human rights requires much more than appearing on television, writing opinion pieces, and putting out statements.

Basic human rights that human rights activists in Nepal are claiming to be fighting for are supposed to be about justice. Where is justice when the people who initiated the insurgency that turned a peaceful nation into a killing field are let off the hook and the ones that were forced to defend the state are selectively picked for prosecution? For human rights activists to be credible, respected and effective, they should be pushing for the prosecution of all those who violated human rights precepts. Justice is only justice if it is consistent. If justice is selective, it is injustice!

Nonviolence: Path to freedom

2009-12-07T10:18:00.000-05:00

Sumit Sharma Sameer, in Unfinished Journey: A Story of a Nation, provides a good overview of hope, anxiety, and frustration of the young generation clamoring for meaningful and viable change in Nepal. From evolution of the state to faltering of the peace process, it tries to capture the lapses on part of the political parties to translate opportunities into actions. Sameer raises an interesting question about armed movements’ ability to actually free people. Do they really liberate people?

Armed movements never free people. Like in the case of Nepal, it elevates the stature of those that initiate them, but society as a whole, is caught in an endless, and to a large extent, needless rebellion. Norman Borlaug, the father of green revolution and Muhammad Yunus, the genius behind Grameen revolution, brought about revolution that liberated billions of poor from vicious cycle of poverty, hunger, and deprivation, which armed groups in Nepal claim to be fighting for, without resorting to guns. Gandhi brought a submissive nation to its feet and an empire to its knees without resorting to any kind of violence.

Before getting into why armed movements are carried out, it is important to realize where actually they happen. Armed movements and political violence thrive in places where literacy rate is low, institutions are weak, and the political leadership is corrupt and visionless. You do not see mushrooming of modern day Robin Hood like in Nepal, in matured western democracies. It simply does not happen for a very simple reason- the chances of Robin Hood, himself getting killed or imprisoned are, almost certain. So it is all about risk and reward. In Nepal, risks faced by insurgents are too low to forgo. Plus, insurgency is a low-skill occupation. What would most of the Maoist insurgents, or for that matter Jwala Singh or Goit’s men, be doing had they not become insurgents? Did they have a successful career?

The restoration of multiparty democracy in 1990 had provided a perfect opportunity to address social inequalities but once again the political leadership failed to capitalize on the gains and bring about much needed social change. Instead of cashing in on the opportunity of transforming the nation, the new set of politicians saw it as their opportunity to enrich themselves. Nepali Congress (NC), which claims itself as the party of Nepali people that believe in nationalism, democracy and socialism failed miserably to strengthen the very ideals it claimed to have fought for. As a matter of fact, under the leadership of Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK), nationalism further decayed, political corruption flourished, and democracy, instead of getting consolidated weakened. Common men’s faith in democracy started fading away as GPK’s unquenchable hunger for power started coming to the fore. In the absence of radical social reforms to correct past inequalities, the concept of socialism remained limited to NC’s manifesto.

While GPK was strengthening his grip on power by destroying the brewing dissent within the party (sidelining Ganeshman Singh, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and the famous group of 36), something else was happening, elsewhere. Two Brahmins - Puspa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai – who had failed to fulfill their political dreams under multiparty set-up were evaluating the lucrative opportunity of armed rebellion. Their political outfit under Nirmal Lama was not going anywhere. They knew that the call for reversing inequalities would resonate with poor, especially in remote hinterland, whose connection with the state was weak, had abundance of cheap labor, and where poverty was rampant. The political parties’ inability to address the common folk’s problems strengthened insurgents’ appeal. Plus, the mainstream political parties’ halfhearted battle to defeat the insurgency and India’s policy of perpetuating managed instability in Nepal allowed the insurgency to flourish unchecked. Then came Gyanendra’s political adventurism. It provided the Maoists a lifetime opportunity to deliver the master stroke.

After the old set of fundamentalist - the Maoists - came overground, the new seminaries emerged to protest the older ones they thought had become “modernist.” The political parties’ willingness to join hands with the Maoists has legitimized violence as a political means to get to power. Once violence is legitimized, it simply does not go away, easily. It took less than one percent of the population with guns to wreak havoc and bring down the state to its knees. When the state kneels down to such a meager percentage of people, the state will always remain at the cross-hair of the radical forces that want to collapse the state. Radical demagoguery has invaded public space in Nepal with a momentum that no one is capable of reversing, not at least in the near future.

Political violence in Nepal further deepened after the Maoists came overground because Girija Prasad Koirala, Sekhar Koirala and Krishna Prasad Sitaula saw it as their opportunity to consolidate their grip on power and they wanted to achieve that by appeasing the Maoists. In order to emerge out as the only Maoist handlers, they let the rebranded PLA (read YCL) trash law and order situation in the country. The victims of the Maoists’ belligerence – both the state and people - were left to wallow in the swamp. While the perpetrator of the violence were turned celebrity by the GPK’s government, victims of the Maoist atrocities were denied even a false comfort.

Armed insurgency might have ceased but the political violence will not cease altogether no matter who gets and remains in the power. The path that both the centrist forces and the Maoists are taking will not address the causes that instigate and perpetuate violence. The major centrist parties like NC and UML are not yet ready to introduce social reforms needed to address the structural causes of conflict. On the other hand, the radical reforms that the Maoists want to bring about, will not ensure long term growth and prosperity. It might be appealing to the have-nots but it will not have the inbuilt capacity to bring about long-term changes in the lives of people.

If the centrist parties want to reclaim their lost political space, they will have to establish another horizon. The key to the moderate parties’ future lies in their ability to unlock the Madhesi, Janjati, and youth’s demands, and spearhead it. There is a transparent anger, leavened by confusion, among these groups which is provoking a drift to the most familiar port, the Maoists. Make marginalized people equal citizens rather than playing with their sentiments like the Maoists do. Declaring states unilaterally whereby indigenous or backward castes have an opportunity to foul mouth a Brahmin is not the empowerment that these people need and deserve. It does not put food in the plates of their hungry children, nor does it provide their children an educational opportunity.

Instead of wasting time in countering radicals’ propaganda, the centrist parties should use their time and resources to come up with a social reform plan of their own. They should stop trying to outshine the Maoists by re-packaging the Maoists’ agendas. It will simply not work. The challenge in distinguishing oneself from the Maoists is an enormously important task that the politicians of centrist parties are neglecting to act on. The politicians of NC and UML are busy maintaining political correctness and in the process, burying their centrist identity. The sooner you realize that winning public support is not contingent upon radical populism, the sooner you will be able to turn the tide.

Crime & corruption edging out politics

2009-11-23T15:15:00.001-05:00

Political instability in Nepal is increasingly becoming a boon for some at the cost of many. Recent reports on how local leaders of the major political parties in Dang divided 750 thousand rupees of public money among themselves clearly shows how easily political consensus can be reached when it comes to looting the state. The loot was shared by the local politicians of Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified-Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Madhesi Peoples´ Rights Forum (MPRF) and Rastriya Janamorcha Party.

Renowned Indian journalist M J Akbar has explained the contradiction of fundamentalism very succinctly. One of the greatest contradictions of fundamentalist politics, according to Akbar, is that it cannot deliver on the basic problem that provoked its rise – economic deprivation. Maybe the proletariats realized that early on. Be it promoting nepotism through an appointment of a sister with a degree in microbiology in the planning commission by Hisila Yami or the foot soldiers dividing the pie in Dang, they have embraced vices they vouched to eradicate pretty well and without wasting much time.

It is not only the poor local politicians trying to establish a foothold in politics who are engaged in looting the state; the so-called top leaders of major political parties have not given up their right to loot the state altogether. Madhav Kumar Nepal’s government is planning to waive arrears worth Rs 10 million incurred by former prime ministers and ministers over the last two decades. Except for Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, all former prime ministers of the last two decades are in the list. The timing cannot get better because PM Nepal himself is in the list for the generosity he exhibited during his stint as a deputy prime minister of the country some years ago.

When it comes to looting the state, consensus does not evade Nepalese politicians. And, they really are getting sophisticated at it. All-party unity in draining the state’s coffer is not something that is local to Dang. Lately, this has been happening in every nook and corner of the country. But what is surprising is that how quickly the proletariats and groups fighting for ethnic empowerment learned the game of the “feudalists” and “colonizers.” No wonder, the country slips in the corruption index. Corruption in Nepal has worsened over the years. From 121 position in 2008, it slipped to 143 in the Transparency International (TI) 2009’s ranking. With this pace, we will soon be surpassing Afghanistan, the only nation more corrupt than us in South Asia. Not only in corruption, we might also soon surpass Afghanistan in violent crimes.

In the name of inclusion, mindless zombies like Karima Begum, who take laws into their hands and shamelessly justify the wrongdoings, are made ministers. What do you think the likes of Begum would do if and when they fail to get elected in future? Retire gracefully and lead a life of law-abiding citizens?It is not the likes of Karima Begum who decide on inclusive agenda. They are there to make noise and warm benches. Who gets what is decided somewhere in the dark corridors. As if opening the political space for the likes of Begum was not enough, Madhav Kumar Nepal’s government has decided to withdraw nearly 286 cases, of which 200 were murders, against various individuals and groups.

The line between politics and criminality has become so blurred that checking criminalization of politics and corruption is becoming impossible. The state is increasingly being looked upon as something that is there for everyone to loot.Political instability and crime grow when political corruption becomes acceptable. This is what happened in Bihar. Bihar, after independence, in 1950, was India’s third-richest state. And, now, it is now one of India’s poorest states. It has become a byword for lawlessness, corruption, mafia-styled politics, communal fiefdom and underdevelopment.

Crime and corruption will get worse in Nepal in the coming days and years, as politicians, both self-proclaimed messiah of the proletariats and ethnic minorities, have joined the old players, whom they fought to replace in looting the state. As the politicians get sophisticated and the state’s resources to loot upon get scarcer, these politicians will shift their target from the state resources to private properties. There are four ways for citizens to safeguard their property: (a) do it yourself (b) do it in mutual association with others (c) do it by hiring others (d) and do it through the state. As the first and the fourth options are virtually inapplicable due to the absence of the state’s presence and criminalization of the politics, citizens basically have two choices: (a) associate with the radicals/criminals or (b) hire them to safeguard their property. Criminalization of politics and political corruption are damaging for any society. If allowed to flourish, they will not only destroy the very fabric of the society but also negatively impact development. Corruption is inversely related to growth.

Madhav Kumar Nepal government’s decision to waive the arrears incurred by former prime ministers and ministers should be challenged in the Supreme Court. Sustained control of political corruption requires a consistent demonstration of genuine commitment on the part of the top political elite towards the eradication of the menace. In the case of Nepal, it is the other way round. There is a consistent demonstration of camaraderie among the top political elite to perpetuate the menace. They are more interested in playing a “tolerant corruption” game rather than exhibiting “zero tolerance for corruption.”

Nepal may not come out of revolutionary mode anytime soon. The politicians of yesteryears have not given up their dirty tricks and corrupt mindset that pushed multiparty democracy to a dysfunctional state and the new luminaries on the block have picked up the very same tricks and tactics used by the people that they fought to replace, and that too, very early on in the game. It is increasingly becoming clearer that Nepal not only faces the danger from the ones that want to collapse the state but also from the ones that claim to safeguard the state from collapsing. Both the sides increasingly appear to be dishonest and corrupt.

Understanding the radical mindset

2009-11-09T11:15:00.000-05:00

Much of the country wants the current stalemate to end but the political system is deadlocked. The political divide in the last couple of months have further widened with the Maoists’ autocratic aspirations and Talibanish character coming to the fore. Liberals, who were soft on the Maoists despite the latter’s avowed objective of establishing the dictatorship of the proletariat by overthrowing the supposedly-rotten bourgeois system, are not ready to act as useful idiots anymore. Along with the useful idiots, hopeful idiots, too, seem to have woken up, finally. The members of latter group who once openly embraced the Maoists and rationalized their irrational behavior at the cost of mainstreaming the Maoists have started writing responses to the United Nations’ secretary general’s call for a national unity government. Nepal, as a nation, suffers not only from violent radicals’ dishonest intent but also from the intellectual dishonesty of the so-called intellectuals that have gotten habituated of playing on either side of the fence.

The drift between the Maoists and the democratic forces was eminent because the strategic end goals of these two forces are distinctly different. The Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai in his latest interview with World People’s Resistance Movement (WPRM), without mincing a word, has clearly said that the alignment with the bourgeois democratic parties was to abolish monarchy following which the contention is between the bourgeois and the proletariat forces. That is what we are now witnessing: The next leg of the struggle. Should the democratic forces be concerned? Of course, yes!Even though Bhattarai tried his best to contextualize things that he said in the interview with WPRM in his interview with Rabindra Mishra of BBC, anyone who has read the text of the interview given to WPRM knew Bhattarai was lying. Without using any qualifier, he has clearly said that the Maoists have never abandoned protracted people’s war; there has only been a tactical shift within the strategy. He calls democracy as a form of bourgeois dictatorship. It raises a question about what kind of system the Maoists actually want. Here is what the Maoists want. Within the framework of the dictatorship of the proletariat, competition will be organized among the masses of the people, whereby the masses will be constantly energized until proletarian dictatorship is established. The revolution, according to the chief Maoist ideologue, will not stop until all the classes are abolished; the state is abolished; and the property system is abolished.

For now, the ongoing political stalemate may be over as the Maoists are unable to chip away the coalition partners and bring down the government. The flexibility that the Maoists are exhibiting or will exhibit in the coming days, however, is/will be to safeguard the gains. The Maoists know it very well that at this point in time all they got to do is not let the coalition deliver. They know it very well that eventually the international community will either have to reinstate them or force the government to conduct fresh elections. Either ways, they win. If elections are held, the Maoists will once again make a clean sweep. They will win not only because they are the only ones present at the grassroots level but also because radicals always win when the political landscape is fragmented. As the government fails to deliver, voters disappointed with the coalition partners will join small regional parties built around single issues, such as ethnic discrimination, economic marginalization and many others. Such splinter parties that have mushroomed in every region of the country will further weaken the more moderate parties like NC and UML.

The emergence of the Nazis after 1930 took place in a similar situation that we are in now.The Nazis benefited from these splinter parties in the protestant-bourgeois camp and absorbed most of their voters. In the case of Nepal, it is even more easier because along with the brainwashed poor, indoctrinated with the Marxist doctrine of a class war, the city-based intelligentsia that have forgiven the killings of thousands of civilians and security personnel and destruction of public property believe that the Maoists stand for the poor and are fighting to bring about social transformation. The city-based intelligentsia is disillusioned because in its analysis, it attaches the state’s inability to solve common men’s problems with ineffectiveness of multiparty democracy. It is not multiparty democracy but a few incompetent and corrupt politicians that failed in the country. In Cuba, which is revered by the Maoists, out of 70 Cuban intellectuals arrested six years ago in what has become known as Cuba’s Black Spring, more than 20 are still languishing in various jails in sub-human conditions. If things go the Maoists way, social transformation that the city-based intelligentsia has been hankering for may not extend beyond fractured skulls resulting from security personnel’s baton.

Trading a democratic system with a dictatorship is a horrible idea. There was no need of a violent armed insurgency to repair the lapses of the government during the last two decades to begin with. Democratic system is self-correcting and incompetent and corrupt get flushed out periodically as voters get more educated and sophisticated. With improved administrative corrections, containment of corruption and better economic packages for the least developed areas, positive changes in the lives of people could have been brought. But that is too late even to discuss now. No matter how flexible the Maoists may appear for now, they will not abandon their strategic end goal. They will continue to try to secure success through fault lines of the state. Unless the state is aware of these fault lines and employs all possible resources to repair the gaps which the Maoists will try to take advantage of, Maoist takeover is eminent. It may take sometime but it will certainly happen.

Never-ending demands

2009-10-26T11:18:00.001-04:00

It’s been five months since the Maoists started obstructing parliament sessions in the name of establishing “civilian supremacy.” After five months, the Maoists seem to have finally realized that obstructing the House sessions is not good enough to create an environment for them to get back to power.

It seems the master manipulators too have started getting it wrong when it comes to judging the way the experienced players of yesteryears react to coercion. Why is coercion not working the way it used to before? It is not working because the ring master – India – is quite aware of the Maoists’ intentions. Plus, obstructing the parliament does not bother the politicians. More than 50 percent of the current parliamentarians might never have, in their wildest dreams, expected to be where they are today. To them, as long as the pay and perks are paid on time, obstructions can continue. As far as those that are in the government are concerned, obstructions does not hinder their chances of enriching themselves and doing whatever little they can in the lawless land. Obstructions also does not affect senior leaders of the UML and NC because they have made enough to live lavish lifestyles in Kathmandu and their children have successfully made their way to greener pastures, beyond YCL’s clutches.

Realizing the fact that they were not able to dent a hole to force major political parties to cave in to their demands, the Maoist standing committee meeting held on Oct 23 has come up with an ultimatum and a deadline. According to the comrades, if the ongoing negotiation fails to restore “civilian supremacy” and rectify the president’s “unconstitutional” move by Nov 1, a strong protest movement is eminent. While the “civilian supremacists” keep their fight for the supremacy of civilians alive, the livelihoods of those whose rights they say they are fighting for are actually getting affected. According to the Industry Association, more than 200 industries have shut down their operation in Sunsari-Morang industrial corridor alone. The proletariats’ dream of prosperity might have to wait till the aspiring dictators establish a foothold in Nepali politics and be actually able to administer the dictatorship of the proletariat. Till then, all obstructions and destructions that affect livelihood opportunities of the proletariats are genuine sacrifices required for building a prosperous future.

Even if the ongoing dialogue ends the current political impasse, the Maoists will once again find some other issues to obstruct the political process. This is not the first time that the Maoists are obstructing the political process, is it? People have lost track of the agreements that have been signed with the Maoists in the past. What have all those agreements signed in the past produced for ordinary citizens? Yes, it has produced tons of benefits for the Maoists but what about the common men longing for peace and stability?

The ongoing obstructions are a part of the greater design – not to let others succeed. And, this will not be the last time that the Maoists will be engaging in obstructionist activities. They have done in the past and they will do in the future. Their actions are guided by their end goal – a firm grip on power. The Maoists are in this game to win it, not to compromise or let others emerge victorious. Why is it so difficult to understand that? To people with common sense, it is obvious that the Maoists in the name of “peace process” want a complete dominance over Nepal politics. For the agenda-driven “civil society” and the likes, appeasement of the Maoists is the only way to the promised “peace land.” Before deciding on continuing with the advice of these fellow travelers, we should ask ourselves: Are we prepared to concede every time we are obstructed or threatened? Will our compliance bring an end to the Maoists’ obstructions and brutalities? Quite the contrary—if we look back, it becomes evident that the Maoists’ demands have escalated, not ceased.

Through obstructions, the Maoists want to sap the political parties’ morale and instill fear and uncertainty. They seek to undermine the political parties’ confidence and values, to sow division and intolerance both within and between parties. Needless to say, the Maoists have learnt and profited from the political parties’ weaknesses and fear.The political parties should be ready to play a hardball with the Maoists, and yes, it does not have to be confrontational. First and foremost, it is important to understand the game that the Maoists play. They have mastered the art of using one force against another. So the cohesion is a must if political survival is something that the democratic forces in Nepal are interested in.

The number game that India helped achieve this time around is not an eternal formula. If the major political parties continue to pursue the path of “appeasement,” there will soon be a day whereby people of Nepal will compromise for false sense of security promised by the Maoists rather than waiting for the delivery of democracy and peace by eternal “appeasers.” The best way of dealing with the Maoists is to keep them engaged, frustrated and accountable for the crimes they commit. Caving in to their demands only emboldens them. The more you bow to their demands, the more you invite them to commit further obstructions.

Time for course correction

2009-10-12T10:20:00.001-04:00

In The Fund for Peace Failed States Index 2009, Nepal occupies the 25th position. For eternal optimists, we are still 24 ranks away from being the most probable country to fail and as we sail through the transition period, things will somehow get better and the dream of “New Nepal” will be realized eventually. But for people who believe that hope is not a method, to be anywhere near Ethiopia and Afghanistan that rank 16th and 7th respectively is pretty scary, especially when things are getting worse rather than improving. It does not take very long for a nation to move up the index of failed states if the self-destructive course that a country is in is not corrected. It did not take very long for Zimbabwe, which was once considered the breadbasket of Africa, to become a basket case, did it? A single man’s never-quenching thirst for power has turned the future of millions of Zimbabweans upside down and Nepal has quite a few of them.

For radical communists, the more things get worse, better are the prospects of establishing “civilian supremacy.” As long as North Korea, where under “civilian supremacy” millions of civilians starve everyday, ranks ahead of us, self-annihilation is actually a leap forward. It is not only Pushpa Kamal Dahal for whom Nepal’s march towards becoming a failed state does not matter. There are others too. For Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK), whose hunger for power seems boundless, there is obviously Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, which ranks second in the list. The phrase “power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely” coined by the historian and moralist John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton and which applies well to Mugabe might as well apply to GPK if he fails to contain his greed. After falling out of favor with India, he has started courting China, East-European and Scandinavian nations now. How far can he go and how low can he stoop to elevate his daughter’s political career is yet to be seen.

The sad thing about the ongoing situation in Nepal is that most people know that the country is headed in the wrong direction but there is very little that they can do to bring it back into track.

As far as self-proclaimed messiah of Madhesi cause Upendra Yadav, who did everything but push for greater Madhesis’ right during his stint as foreign minister in the Maoist cabinet, is concerned, there is Iraq in the list, which ranks as the 6th most likely country to become a failed stated. Iraq is a perfect example for those who want to elevate their political stature by inciting ethnic hatred. Ignoring the fact that he blew off a golden opportunity to keep up the momentum to secure genuine rights that Madhesis have been denied for decades as long as he was in the corridor of power, he is back in action, that too in Raj Thakre’s style, threatening an already fragmented society with another round of ethnic uprising.

For observers who believe in measuring political progress based on indicators on the ground, Nepal’s chances of slipping further away from being a failed state is very dismal unless there is a major course correction. In the current set-up, there are way too many power hungry, morally bankrupt and shameless politicians that have emerged out at the top echelons of politics. Unlike in neighboring India, where only competent men make it to the top, the political system in Nepal is overburdened with too many power hungry, corrupt and incompetent politicians. The political system in India is far from being perfect but very few incompetent and insincere men actually become ministers in the central cabinet, and even when once in a while people like Sibu Soren penetrate the system, they somehow get flushed out periodically. Their chance of causing a collateral damage to the system, unlike in Nepal, is pretty slim.

The sad thing about the ongoing situation in Nepal is that most people know that the country is headed in the wrong direction but there is very little that they can do to bring it back into track. Finally, even those political pundits that endlessly vouched for joining hands with the radical communists that have been inconsistently consistent about the dictatorship of the proletariat, have started visualizing democracy’s blurred future. When academics with political ambitions get into punditry, the prescription is bound to be flawed. Where in the world has multi-party democracy been realized by joining hands with radical communists?

India, which provided aid and shelter to the Maoists during the decade-long violent insurgency in Nepal and facilitated its bedding with the centrist forces in Nepal, appears restless as continued commitment to the process it helped facilitate is benefiting everyone else but itself. India’s desperation will grow even further as the Maoists continue to tilt north. The Maoists know it very well that, as long they court China, the chances of Indian-sponsored annihilation is impossible. Plus, they are the ones that are best organized with well-crafted agenda, issues, roadmap and muscle power.

It is needless to say that the Maoists are shrewd operatives. Look at how well they define their agenda and keep the top leaders of the major political parties engaged in futile political debate such as “civilian supremacy” while the Maoists cadres at the grassroots level are busy expanding their political base. What are these politicians of the major political parties trying to achieve by debating “civilian supremacy” with radicals that believe in bringing change by butchering innocent civilians? Isn’t the contradiction quite clear?

The UML is already divided. The good chunk of the party leaders’ heart is with the Maoists’ cause. As far as NC is concerned, Dahal has once again rocked its boat by luring power hungry GPK. India for now seems to have ganged-up Ram Chandra Poudel, Sushil Koirala and others to checkmate GPK’s ambitions but there will be more GPK types in future as long as India believes in administering proxy rule in Nepal by buying off a handful of politicians.

India’s level of influence in Nepal is bound to dwindle unless there is a major course correction. Administering a proxy rule by purchasing a few politicians might be less costly and work for a short term, but if long-term security interest is what India is really concerned about, it should invest in and push for infrastructure development and institutional building. It should win hearts and minds of Nepalis rather than winning over a few politicians. Buying off politicians of a neighboring nation, which has tons of unemployed hotheads ready to be recruited for violent conflicts, is definitely not a sound investment. As the culture of political bribery gets entrenched, there will be simply too many heads to buy and too many bidders to outbid. The best way to checkmate the rise of radical forces that would eventually pose security threats to India is by building strong institutions in Nepal. It might take a while to produce dividends but that would be a more cost-effective and secure investment.

Politicized Courts

2009-08-31T11:13:00.002-04:00

Recently, out of 42 committee members, 23 members of the Constituent Assembly’s (CA) committee to determine the judicial system in an up or down vote supported the provision for appointment and dismissal of justices from the parliament in the new constitution. Although the vote does not mean anything unless the CA decides on whether or not such a provision would actually be enshrined in the new constitution, it is important to understand why it is being pushed by the Maoists. And what it will mean in terms of political freedom in Nepal.

Political interference in judicial processes is not something that is unheard of. The judiciary in Nepal has actually never been fully independent. Be it in Panchayat or post-Panchayat era, political elites always have gotten the verdict the way they want. Has anyone heard of a politician no matter how corrupt he or she is – Nepal has plenty of them – going to jail? No politician has ever gone to jail for corruption or other serious crimes. Almost half a dozen of post-1990 politicians who are considered to be the most corrupt were given clean chit by various courts in Nepal. As free individuals, they are once again active in carving our collective destiny.
All our comrades are trying to do is replicate the well-tested model of using judiciary for political control. The control over the judiciary will take the notion of “civilian supremacy” even a step further.

Judicial activism is nothing new, why even bother? It is important to understand why the Maoists want a judicial system whereby judges are appointed by the parliament. The Maoists know it very well that the independence of judiciary is the biggest threat to any autocratic regime. Be it a radical communist state like North Korea or theocracy such as Iran, appointing ideologues as judges is crucial for the survival of the regime. The judicial system in North Korea, which is notoriously famous for its Stalinist show trials, does not require legal education as a qualification for being elected as a judge or so-called “people’s assessor.” Political reliability is the sole criteria for nomination. In Cuba, the judiciary is not even recognized as an independent branch of the government. Both in law and practice, it is subjugated to the executive. In Iran, where hundreds of reformist politicians, lawyers and journalists are endlessly accused and prosecuted for conspiring against the regime, the supreme leader picks the chief justice. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently tapped Sadeq Larijani, brother of Ali Larijani, Iran’s powerful parliamentary speaker.

Is it clear now why Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his comrades want the exact same judicial system that the dear leader Kim Jong-Il and Castro brothers have in North Korea and Cuba respectively. Or, for that matter, Khamenei has in Iran? The Maoists comrades know it very well that without having ideologues in the courtrooms, they cannot nail down political opponents. Anyone who has read Soviet history knows very well what role courts played when it came to handling political enemies. The courts and judges were used at all times against political enemies even though the repressive communist regime relied heavily on more direct forms of repression for matters of high priority, especially during the key periods of revolutionary change. So, all our comrades are trying to do is replicate the well-tested model of using judiciary for political control. The control over the judiciary will take the notion of “civilian supremacy” even a step further.

We have a dysfunctional judiciary now, which needs to be corrected. But if Dahal and his men are allowed to succeed in their latest design, judiciary will be in a gutter. And, it will take ages to get an independent judiciary then after. The judiciary is yet to be independent in most of the former communist countries even after nearly two decades of the fall of communist regimes. Even today in Russia, judiciary suffers from communist era hangovers. The exercise of rule of law is marred by the politicized use of statutes to punish political opponents.It is a well-orchestrated move on the part of the Maoists to destroy whatever independence the judiciary has in Nepal because an independent judiciary that is beyond the executive’s reach and capable of impartial adjudication is a real threat to their aspirations. Independent judiciary restricts the tools that autocrats typically employ to control political life and stay in power.

It is understandable why the Maoists want politicized courts but it is hard to understand why the regional parties are tailgating the Maoists in this issue. The Madhesi parties, among many other things, also claim to be fighting for political freedom. If that’s the case, they should do a little bit of homework on what politicization of judiciary does to the political freedom they claim to be fighting for. The level of freedom in any country is greatly dependent on whether or not the judges of that country are truly independent. A society can be free, and free in a real sense, only when the judiciary is loyal to the law. Citizens of a country where the judges are not independent from influences of power can only dream of complete political freedom.

Laws should be interpreted in an impartial way and justice should be served by competent and neutral judges. Nepali people deserve real political freedom and equality before law not the Stalinist show trials administered by some brainwashed ideologue, who barely managed to get a law degree.

Dealing with the nightmare

2009-08-03T22:07:00.001-04:00

In Nepal, the more things change, the more they stay the same. As a matter of fact, one can argue, and argue pretty convincingly, that the more things change, the more they get worse. The general public would be happy if they stayed the same, as things have lately been deteriorating beyond one’s belief. Here is an example. The culture of gun-totting progressive politics initiated by the Maoists and glorified by the civil society pundits is being replicated in every nook and corner of the country. According to the home ministry’s latest report, there are 109 armed groups operating within Nepal. Soon every household in the country will have weapons like in North Western frontier province of Pakistan. All peasants empowered. Progressive politics cannot get better than that, can it?

The rise of criminal outfits in the name of ethnic resistance is a distinctive form of organized crime and reflects more than just the temporary dislocations and uncertainties of the country’s transition to a free-market democracy. When killings of innocent civilians are rationalized in the name of progress, what you end up getting is more killings, not less. It is common sense. Forming a criminal group that operates under the guise of ethnic resistance is the easiest part. What is hard, however, is shielding such outfits from possible crackdown by security forces. For that, you have to have the backing of political parties and support of the elites within the ethnic minorities who can blow tons of hot air when one of these criminals gets killed or trapped into the security force’s net.

People wonder why the law and order situation is not improving with the change of government. The simple answer is that except for the general public, who has to work hard to make ends meet, everyone else is benefiting from it, especially the political parties. Let’s take an example of criminal groups that have infested the Tarai. India wants them because it can use them at key moments; the regional Madhesi parties want them because they provide a solid back-up; the NC and UML use them at key moments and think they are useful because they provide competition to the Madhesi parties. Why would you go after people that might be of some use to further your agenda down the road?

Recently, Superintendent of Police Ramesh Kharel was transferred from Siraha, where he had been undertaking a special initiative to deal with criminal activities. The elites, blinded with ethnic vendetta, hated him because he was really getting good at containing criminal activities taking place in the name of politics. But instead of praising him for his hard work, he is being accused of human rights violations by elites within the ethnic minorities in the Tarai. What about the human rights violations these criminals are engaged in? They are actively engaged in everything from fleecing local businessmen and relatively well-to-do citizens to abductions and killings of innocent civilians. Think about the overall socioeconomic costs of their antisocial activities.

I am not surprised by the condemnation coming from the supporters of these criminals who see the work of our men in uniform through ethnic lenses but what surprises me the most is the transfer of an officer, who was pretty successful in curbing criminal activities, by the home minister who says he is all for maintaining law and order. Madhav Kumar Nepal’s government, which was born because of Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s miscalculations, appears bewildered and directionless. It is a classical case of not knowing what to do with an unexpected and under deserved bounty.

Kharel is one of the thousands of brave men and women in the security sector that put their lives in harms way so that, we, the general public, feel safe. But these men and women get repeatedly betrayed by the politicians who send them to political landmines. It happened with the Nepali Army during the insurgency and now it is being repeated with the Nepal Police. The professionals from the police and army are never applauded for their hard work. Especially, the army is always at the crosshair of leftist politicians and left-leaning civil society pundits and human rights defenders. Despite being confined to the barracks and adhering to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the army has not been left out of the political games being played out in the country’s highly-politicized media landscape. And, particularly the political pundits, depending on which side of the political divide they identify with, have often found political angles for stories demonizing the army.

It is not very hard to understand why they want to constantly drag the security forces into the political debate. The threat of military intervention in politics increases when civilian leaders fail to provide “good government” and earn their legitimacy by solving the problems plaguing the country. When politicians cannot deliver, what they typically do –and this is true to all failing nations like ours – is blame the military for hatching conspiracies. As political legitimacy dwindles, the game of preempting military intervention into politics increases. The talk about civilian supremacy over the army that the Maoists regurgitated endlessly after Dahal’s government collapsed was nothing but a move towards what Samuel P. Huntington called subjective control of the military. It entails ideological indoctrination of the armed forces as well as promoting rivalries between the various branches of the military. It is right out of the “red book” of the former Soviet Union’s communists.

The politicians, irrespective of their position in the political spectrum, will continue to suffer from the nightmare of army intervention till they successfully create a state structure to promote a national identity aimed at enticing diverse groups to identify with the new order, determine the level of popular participation in political processes suitable to multi-party democratic framework, and organize the fair distribution of wealth. It is not too late to work on these fronts. Instead of trying to remain relevant in politics by attacking the last functioning institution, do the right thing. The best way to preempt possible military intervention in politics is by ensuring good governance. This will leave military elites with no options to develop such an inclination nor the opportunity to intervene in politics.

Reward good work

2009-07-20T11:21:00.000-04:00

Nepal’s education sector has done pretty well in the last two decades. I vividly remember my high school days back in the late eighties. Back then, there were no English medium schools in small towns, not even in many district headquarters. In eastern Nepal, one had to go to major urban centers like Biratnagar, Dharan or Birtamod to avail education in the English medium. But today, things are different. Every small town of a decent size has English boarding schools. The quality of education provided by the English schools operating in rural areas may not match with the ones in urban centers like Kathmandu and Biratnagar but at least kids today have an opportunity to learn English right from the primary level. It is not about the superiority of the English language over our mother tongue; we live in a different world today. The domestic and international job market today is quite different from even a decade ago. A person with a command over the English language has better career prospects both within and outside the country.

The School Leaving Certificate (SLC) pass rate which hovered around 40 percent in the early nineties has significantly risen. This year’s pass rate of 68.47 percent has surpassed all previous records. But there still lies a huge disparity in the success rate. English medium schools outperform their Nepali medium counterparts in almost every part of the country. If we take the percentage of students that pass SLC from English schools out of the equation, the percentage of students who pass the “iron gate” may still be quite low. Furthermore, students passing SLC from English schools are the ones who mostly secure distinction or first class. When I passed SLC in the early nineties, all 50 students in my class secured first division, whereas only about a dozen secured first division in the local public school of my hometown.

It is important to make civil services attractive and well-paying so that competent individuals see it as a career option. In India, medicine and engineering graduates forgo high-paying jobs in private sectors to join civil services.I, for one, always questioned the reason behind the failure of public schools in Nepal. While educationists who design the curriculum for public schools have become millionaires by securing donor-funded contracts, schools and students that stick to the curriculum continue to falter. Certainly, something must be wrong somewhere. Why are English medium schools successful while public schools struggle? Is it because English schools are able to attract the best brains to teach by paying them well? That does not seem to be the case in reality. Uttam Sanjel’s Samata Shiksha Niketan charges a fee of just 100 rupees per month but his students seem to be doing pretty well. In this year’s SLC exam, five students from the school secured distinction.Many like Bhawana Tamang, who scored distinction in this year’s SLC exam from Samata, would not have had a chance to avail education in English medium if it was not for Uttam Sanjel. For thousands of children, whose parents like Bhawana’s mother do odd jobs to keep their children’s dreams afloat, Mr Sanjel has provided a hope. He has proved that quality education can be provided at a minimal cost. People like Sanjel who are doing the hard work every day in the trenches make Nepal and Nepali feel proud. They are the real heroes that have the vision and potential to change the face of the nation unlike politicians whose rhetoric does not match their actions.

The time has come to overhaul administrative, foreign and security service exams to attract bright, competent and eloquent people like Bhawana Tamang. Nepalis envy Indian bureaucrats for their bullish attitude towards us but we often overlook their educational background and competence. Almost half a dozen of my friends from the University of Delhi are now in Indian Administrative Services. These men were among the brightest and the most eloquent in the college. There may be some competent men who have opted to become civil servants in Nepal but from my experience of having interacted with our service men within and outside the country, in diplomatic missions in India, Europe and the United States, I can tell with 100 percent certainty that my Indian classmates that are now in Indian civil services will easily out compete our men anytime, anywhere. It is a matter of shame but we should admit the fact and correct the system so that competent people get a chance to serve the nation. Officers posted in diplomatic missions around the globe keep themselves busy issuing passports to the Diasporas, stamping visitor visas, certifying Diaspora’s property documents and attending local events organized by the local Nepali organizations. Convincing foreign investors to invest in Nepal and lobbying for an increase in multilateral and bilateral aid is simply beyond their ability and competence.

It is, thus, high time that we overhaul our civil services to attract the best brains. Like India, it is important to make civil services attractive and well-paying so that competent individuals with sound academic background see it as a career option. In India, medicine and engineering graduates forgo high-paying jobs in private sectors and research opportunities at world-class universities to join civil services. Adapa Karthik, who topped the 2008 Indian civil services examination, did not accept a Harvard research scholarship. This shows the respect that young Indians have for civil services. On contrary, those that fail to get professional education and do not have sound academic background aspire for a civil service career in Nepal. That is where the problem lies. We need to pick the best brains, not the leftovers. Let the younger generation with sound academic background take over and bring about changes at home and transform Nepal’s image abroad.

Deliver or quit

2009-07-06T19:03:00.000-04:00

More than a year has passed since the election of the Constituent Assembly (CA). On April 10, 2010, the stipulated term of the CA, which is mandated to draft a new constitution and decide the federal structure of Nepal, expires. In the past 14 months, CA members, who draw a salary of 50 thousand rupees per month (the 601 CA members have so far drawn 420 million rupees in salary alone), have been engaged in everything from land grabbing and brawl within the CA secretariat campus to availing services of masseuses. The political parties seem to appear interested in everything else except drafting a constitution and agreeing on a functionally viable federal structure.

Having a constitution also means complying with the stipulated rules. But who wants to play by the rules in “New Nepal” except the poor who are forced to? At least, not the major political parties. If the media is to be believed, only six days in the past six months did not experience a banda. The bandas that accounted for 166 days of lost productivity in the past six months were not called for by the disgruntled silent majority, which in reality should have been the case. The largest party in the CA leads the pack in enforcing bandas. Organizations affiliated with UCPN (Maoist), which claims to be the only force capable of bringing sociopolitical and economic transformation in the country, was responsible for enforcing 39 bandas and strikes in the month of May and June alone. It enforced 69 bandas and strikes in the past six months.

Remaining insincere towards people’s need and the nation’s progress while drawing a paycheck can be at best called a morally-repugnant act. CA members should either stop draining the state’s coffer or get back to business.

Others, who claim to be the alternative to the Maoist bullying, are not very far behind. The CPN-UML and the NC organized 17 and 15 bandas respectively during the past six months. So, if we combine the strikes and bandas called by the major three parties, they are responsible for 101 days of lost productivity in the past six months. What does that say about the seriousness on the part of the political parties that are responsible for solving common people’s problem and taking the nation forward?

There is a rapid decay in the sense of public service among the politicians. Sadly, the political parties are using democratic process and institutions to legitimize their undemocratic and antisocial activities aimed at achieving their ultimate goals. Lack of viable alternatives has left Nepali people at the mercy of the morally-bankrupt political class. You can contest elections on ethnic agendas, become a foreign minister for nine months and get away without uttering a word on the need for ethnic empowerment. The globe-trotting foreign minister, Upendra Yadav, is again back in action posing himself as an ethnic messiah. Political insincerity of a few politicians is diluting the purity of the demand for ethnic rights.

Nobody, at least not the politicians, want to have a serious constructive debate on the form of federal structure that is viable and just. The major political parties, whose leadership comprises of mostly pahadi Brahmins and Chhetris do not want to raise the issue because they clearly see their clout diminishing if ethnic federalism is realized. But they do not want to say that, at least not in public. So they give it a nationalist color. They phrase it nicely. Ethnic mindset is antithetical to the notion of national integrity and nationalist pride. Sounds great, doesn’t it? But the ethnic minorities that are pushing for ethnic federalism do know where the Mecca of these politicians is located.

Progress should be the ultimate criteria for designing a federal structure. The federal structure should be founded on administrative prudence and developmental prospects rather than petty issues of politics like ethnicity, caste and language. It is important to ensure that the poor, who are not only ethnic minorities, benefit from the new structure or else the demand for separate states is not going to go away. For example, in India, the demand for separate states did not die down with the creation of Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, which were carved out from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Currently, the demand for creation of 10 new states is lying before the Indian government.

India, which was governed and governed quite effectively by the Britishers under four administrative blocks – Bombay, Madras, Calcutta and Delhi – now has 30 states. If the demand for 10 more states is met, it will have 40 states. The portioning of India engineered by VP Singh is getting deeper.

Nepal should learn from the Indian experience. A sincere effort towards drafting the constitution and rigorous debate on Nepal’s federal structure should start immediately. Running away from the problem is not the solution. It will require a sincere dialogue and consensus building. Political elites of yesteryears do not want to cave in to the demands of regional parties as it will shrink their political base and bargaining potential. The regional parties do not want to compromise on anything less than “One Madhes, One Pradhes” because the very minute a regional party will agree to anything less than that, other regional players will cry foul and call it a “sellout.” But this game of waiting for the other party to drop the ball cannot go forever, can it?

Constitution drafting and design of the federal structure has been put to the back burner because of political insincerity. Remaining insincere towards people’s need and the nation’s progress while drawing a paycheck can be at best called a morally-repugnant act. CA members should either stop draining the state’s coffer or get back to business.

Living in Lawless Times

2009-06-22T16:19:00.001-04:00

It’s been almost a month since Madhav Kumar Nepal was sworn in as the country’s new prime minister. While the country continues to hemorrhage from never-ending political instability and lawlessness, Mr. Nepal is yet to figure out ways to deal with his own share of problems: Filling cabinet berths, keeping ideologically- and temperamentally-incompatible coalition members’ support intact and, the hardest part of it all, finding ways of keeping the Maoists engaged and off the streets. Given the internal rifts within the major political parties and unquenching thirst for greater power amongst the coalition members, safeguarding the majority needed to remain in power may be harder than Mr. Nepal had anticipated.

Even though Mr. Nepal has done everything possible (from extending an olive branch to Maoists to bifurcating ministries to satisfy the demands for lucrative ministries by coalition partners and nominating cabinet members who are not members of the Constituent Assembly) in order to diffuse possible future rebellion against his leadership, in the muddied political culture whereby loyalties towards the power center outside the nation’s geographical boundary is greater than one’s own land and people, support for his government may vanish into thin air the very minute he fails to serve foreign interests in the capacity he is expected to. Pushpa Kamal Dahal is an example of what happens when you try to outgrow your foreign master. So, given the expectation from foreign masters and fragmented support from within the coalition partners, Mr. Nepal is sure to have a tightrope walk.

While the pie is being divided at a painfully slow pace, lawlessness is spiraling out of control. School bus carrying children is getting attacked by vandals and educators are being assaulted in broad daylight. An attack on a microbus carrying students of Saipal Academy at Sukedhara, Kathmandu, and a brutal physical assault on Devidatta Sah, the campus chief of Mahendra Bindeswori Campus, Rajbiraj, are examples of how uncivilized Nepali society is becoming with each passing day. The growing indecency within the college campuses is nothing new but what is becoming increasing troublesome is how the major political parties are coming out of the closet and supporting the goons in guise of students within the college campuses openly. The major political parties – NC, CPN-UML, MPRF, TMLP – instead of condemning the attack on Mr. Sah, ganged up in favor of the infamous Yadav trio – Ramchandra, Jaya Prakash and Santosh – who committed the crime of assaulting the campus chief. So, it is not only the Maoists whose actions are perpetuating lawlessness and culture of impunity in Nepal. The other major political parties are equally responsible. Building a nation needs human capital.

By supporting goons who traumatize children and attack educators, these very politicians, who talk about building a “New Nepal” are destroying the foundation in whatever capacity it might be available. Children, whose buses are getting attacked, will have no desire to remain in the land of goons when they grow up. Educators that are getting attacked will have no interest in sincerely imparting the knowledge that they have acquired by slogging hard. Like everything else, education system in Nepal too is crashing. With the culture of impunity seeping into college campuses, educational institutions across the nation may very well end up becoming brainwashed-demagogue producing factories.

Do our politicians have even the slightest sense of the need and role of human capital in governing the states that they are clamoring to establish in future? With social capital in tatters, financial capital leaving the country like never before, and now, the institutions responsible for producing human capital under attack, capital assets required to build a prosperous nation will become even more scarce in future. With what do they intend to build a “New Nepal” if the hoopla about building it is nothing but populist circus to remain in the corridors of power? A brutal physical assault on Devidatta Sah, the campus chief of Mahendra Bindeswori Campus, Rajbiraj, is an example of how uncivilized Nepali society is becoming.

From Rishi Dhamala to the Yadav trio, political parties by openly siding with perpetrators are not only promoting the culture of impunity but also subverting the judicial process, which could have very well taken care of unlawful activities that Devidatta Sah might have indulged in. While promoting political violence, what our politicians fail to realize is that it will definitely come back to haunt them in the future. Once these musclemen in college campuses across the nation gain further clout and make money, which in present day Nepal with booming abduction and extortion industry is not too difficult, they will outgrow their masters. You don’t have to go too far to witness this phenomenon. Just look at student politics in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and what it has produced over the years and you will soon realize that a goon in guise of a student does have political ambitions and will do everything in his power to establish his foothold in politics. While the Maoists are culprits for trying to establish a dictatorship of the proletariat in the name of “civilian supremacy,” the other major political parties are equally responsible for encouraging “jungle raj” in an otherwise peaceful nation by standing in favor of those that take laws into their hands. Where in the civilized nation do we see the major political parties coming out in favor of goons in the guise of students that assault mentors?

With each passing day, Nepal is increasingly becoming ungovernable. Priorities are different for different sets of people. For politicians, it is all about consolidating power, whereas for the general public, it is about day-to-day survival. What will it take and who will bring back the normalcy? The new “normal,” however, will never be the same; it will be about respecting each other’s ethnicity, religion, political beliefs and playing by the laws of the land. Even though there is not much ground to be convinced that the current government, which has not been able to take a proper shape so far, will be able to pull it off, it has saved us all, at least for now, from getting trapped into the clutches of self-righteous blowhards called the Maoists. But the political experiment continues.

New Rules, Same Game

2009-06-08T00:06:00.000-04:00

It did not take even three years for Nepali politicians, with their “business as usual,” under the table, tit-for-tat mentality, to get back to their infamous ways of mid-1990s. Once again, horse-trading of parliamentarians and backstabbing of fellow party men to grab and remain in power is back in vogue. Rules may have changed but the game remains the same.

The irony of Nepali politics is that the party which won the largest share of votes in the last election does not believe in multi-party democracy and the party – Nepali Congress (NC) – which calls itself the torchbearer of democracy and is the second-largest party in the parliament is the least democratic in its practices. By nominating Sujata Koirala, who is not even a member of the current parliament, to lead Nepali Congress (NC) in the new government, Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK) has put even the worst dictator to shame. As long as GPK is alive, it appears that the scourge of nepotism will never leave NC. Now, we all know what “democracy in peril” talk of GPK during the Maoist rule was all about, don’t we?

If democracy is all about the likes of Sujata becoming a minister, then people of Nepal will soon back the Maoists for whatever they stand for. Whatever the Maoists will have to offer will still be far better than what Sujata will offer.

If we look around, it becomes pretty clear that dirty politics of yesteryears is here to stay with us as long as the likes of GPK are around. This is probably going to be the last chance to weaken the Maoists, who are hell bent on annihilating the multi-party democratic set-up, but looking at GPK’s actions it becomes clear that he is least interested in securing the liberty and freedom of people and more interested in establishing his controversial daughter with zero political acumen in politics. If democracy is all about the likes of Sujata becoming a minister, then people of Nepal will soon back the Maoists for whatever they stand for. For the poorest of poor, whatever the Maoists will have to offer will still be far better than what the likes of Sujata will offer anyways.

The new prime minister, who actually lost the CA elections to a junior Maoist politician, is here to solve the problem with Sujata as a minister and Kul Bahadur Khadka as the security advisor. Trying to consolidate democracy with the assistance of people like these is like banking on Osama Bin Laden to destroy Al Qaeda. Sujata should have faced disciplinary action and Khadka should have been court-martialed for his treacherous act. Rewarding them is the biggest sham in the country today in the name of democracy. With Sujata as a cabinet minister and Khadka as a possible national security adviser, do the Maoists need a mole in the government?

Madhav Kumar Nepal (MKN), with liabilities like Sujata on board and his flip-flopping past, does not come across as someone who can actually solve the problems that confronts the nation. Hiring the right people to do the job is the most important indicator of whether or not the job at hand will be successfully done. Even though it is NC’s prerogative to choose the members it likes to have in the cabinet, it was MKN’s responsibility to ensure that his cabinet members are competent, non-controversial and relatively clean so that people have faith on their ability to deliver in this troubling time. By caving in to GPK’s irresponsible and morally-repugnant act of nominating his daughter as a leader of the NC in the new cabinet, MKN has actually shown that he is ready to compromise his principles and stoop as low as possible to remain in power. If you cannot stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

MKN may try to please everyone from GPK to Pushpa Kamal Dahal (PKD) by nominating Sujata and Khadka to increase the longevity of his tenure but by walking in the middle-of-the road, he has tremendously increased the possibility of getting run over by traffic coming in from the opposite direction.

At this point in time, Nepali people are not asking for much. They would be happy if he could just provide them an opportunity to live in peace. Asking for employment, social safety nets and access to healthcare services, which is by and large the government’s responsibility, would be like expecting a mule to give birth to a calf for us to worship during the upcoming “Laxmi Pooja”. So, no point raising our expectations. If politicians’ words were to be taken seriously, we would already have been like Switzerland long time ago.

On contrary, the politics of social mobilization, which the political parties carried out recklessly has surpassed institutional capacity and has dangerously destabilized the country. Maintaining a certain degree of law and order alone will be a great challenge for MKN as violators of law and order have enough cards at their disposal to play, when busted. Ethnicity, caste and class are the few cards that will remain potent to justify innocence till the government ensures inclusion of the people that have been bypassed by the political elites for decades. Providing cabinet berths to a few people from ethnic and indigenous groups is not the answer. Make everyone equal.

In order to empower people, one does not have to be a rebel. Abraham Lincoln, who abolished slavery, was not a rebel. Was he? Actually people who have been a rebel have fared far worse when it comes to empowering people. Our very own PKD did everything to extract political support from ethnic minorities but when it came to empowering them, he followed in GPK’s footsteps and nominated a couple of people from selected ethnic groups to show that he was sympathetic towards minorities’ rights.

MKN has a chance of a lifetime. His pragmatic actions, which may not be popular at times – and does not have to be – can whitewash his “flip-flopping” past. But, at the same time, if he is unable to come out of the spell of the likes of GPK and PKD and deliver, he will prove that he is just another goofball always ready to compromise on principles and stoop low to remain in the corridors of power.

Lessons For Nepal

2009-05-25T00:08:00.000-04:00

The decimation of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the victory of the Congress party in the recently held parliamentary elections in India were the news that surprised many both in the Indian subcontinent and elsewhere. Mahinda Rajapaksa and Manmohan Singh have proved that the politics of ethnic chauvinism can be defeated, although the route these two men took was quite different. Rajapaksa resorted to military might whereas Singh adhered to greater economic reforms and pro-poor developmental policies. But again, the route they took also had to do with the level of threat ethnic chauvinism posed, in their respective countries. Rajapaksa faced violent ethnic fundamentalism whereas Singh was more exposed to bullying of coalition partners that flourished on ethnic and caste rhetoric.

Rajapaksa has proved that even the most sophisticated insurgency in the world can be decimated if there is a political will. There were countless occasions in the past 26 years of insurgency in Sri Lanka whereby Velupillai Prabhakaran could have gotten the state to fulfill genuine demands of minority Tamils. With time, more rights would have come Tamils’ way. It would have taken time but it would have eventually happened. But Prabhakaran’s hard-headedness and secessionist tendency has, in the end, left Tamils worse off. After 26 years of struggle and thousands of Tamils dead, LTTE got nothing, neither an independent state, nor the esteem of the civilized world.

While Sri Lanka has shown that appeasing the insurgents is not the only way to establish peace, India has shown to the world that the politics of ethnic chauvinism can be defeated through democratic means if the leadership in the country is visionary. Earnest and honest image does pay off in politics. Indian PM Singh is a living example. The recent election, in which, for the first time since 1962, a government that served its full five-year term has been re-elected under the same leadership, is a clear example of economic development taking over ethnic and identity politics in determining election outcomes. The recent election has also demonstrated, and demonstrated handsomely, that anti-incumbency can be beaten by delivering on the development front. Indian voters have rejected ethnic and caste politics. Finally, they have realized that identity-specific rhetoric, a process that they were told would empower them eventually had devolved into single-leader hegemony and blackmail politics, which neither empowered them, nor uplifted their socioeconomic status. India might have finally outgrown “Mandalism.”

Mahinda Rajapaksa, Manmohan Singh, Sheila Dikshit, Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar have provided us with examples that both hardcore ethnic fundamentalism and ethnic- and caste-based politics can be defeated.

Regional leaders such as Naveen Patnaik of Orissa and Nitish Kumar of Bihar have shown that you can remain relevant in politics without riding ethnic agendas. Their effort to promote good governance, improve law and order and bring about overall development has paid off handsomely. Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) which had won six seats in 2004 Lok Sabha election won 20 seats this time around. And, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal won 14 seats, which is three seats more than 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Unlike in the past, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan were not able to fool Bihari voters with their caste-based rhetoric this time around.

While Lalu’s Rastriya Janata Dal had to contend with four seats compared to 22 in 2004 election, Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party failed to register a win. By making development and law and order as the major poll issue in the caste-ridden state, Nitish has proved that these are other ways of claiming relevance in politics.

Not a very long, the military solution to LTTE problem in Sri Lanka and the defeat of Lalu and Paswan in India were conceived as impossible. But as it appears now, nothing is impossible if there is a political will.

In a country likes ours whereby the president, who refuses to join populist ethnic bandwagon, is chided by the members of his own community; where a journalist is not only a journalist but also a member of civil society and covertly involved in politics; where a human right defender runs for the chairmanship of one of the largest political parties, conflict of interest will always remain as a major obstacle in effectively dealing with the elements that pose threat to law and order and stability of the country.

Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka and Manmohan Singh, Sheila Dikshit, Naveen Patnaik, and Nitish Kumar of India have provided us with examples that both hardcore ethnic fundamentalism and ethnic- and caste-based politics can be defeated. We may disagree with the approaches taken but it has been established that there are ways to deal if we really have to. The major question, however, is that, will Nepali politicians, who do not think beyond immediate political survival and who have mastered the art of operating outside the constitution with impunity, bother to learn from these examples? Had we learnt from the world history that appeasement of ideologically-indoctrinated demagogues does not establish peace and stability, we would not be where we are now.

For Nepal to come out of the current mess, which is partly self-created no matter how much political elite of the country try to escape from sharing the blame, there has to be a consensus on crucial but contentious issues such as designing the federal structure, land redistribution and ways to ensure ethnic empowerment. Plus, there has to be a sincere effort towards strengthening existing institutions and maintain law and order in the country, in the absence of which, politicians will keep on playing on either sides of the fence and mushroomed insurgent groups will keep on holding the communities across the country hostage.

But before all that can happen, a million-dollar question that arises now is: Will Madhav Kumar Nepal be able to bring a much stronger Dahal – whose party now is the largest in the parliament, has thousands of militiamen in UN-monitored cantonments and almost a 100 thousand strong paramilitary group (YCL) that can operate with impunity – under the framework aimed at strengthening multi-party democracy? It is a tall order. But again, anything is possible. Who had thought that LTTE could be decimated and Lalu and Paswan could be defeated?

Strategic Intent

2009-04-27T12:02:00.001-04:00

Annie Lowrey of Foreign Policy, the award-winning magazine of global politics, economics, and ideas founded by Samuel Huntington and Warren Demian Manshel lists Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government as one of the five governments worldwide that deserves to fail. One of the major charges against him is that he has been unable to maintain political stability and contain violence. Lowrey asserts, “Prachanda must maintain political stability and avoid any violence at all costs – or Nepal risks catastrophe.”

Lowrey correctly identifies what needs to be done in order to avert catastrophe, which in my view is not that difficult, but whether or not Prime Minister Dahal is doing enough to maintain political stability and contain violence is the most important question. Is Lowrey overreacting? No! Somalia and Afghanistan are excellent examples that showcase what political instability and violence can do to a nation.

Some of us think that political instability and violence are part of a package that a nation trying to take a giant leap has to live with for a while. But how long should that period be allowed to exist? The shorter, the better. And, it really depends upon the ability of the political leadership of the country in question to understand what political instability and violence can do to the overall economy and social fabric. For example, in poor landlocked Botswana, a unique form of democracy combining British parliamentary ideas with African traditions has been functioning well since the 1960s. A free press and a lively political system have developed. One of the many reasons why Botswana is a functional democracy in a largely dysfunctional continent is because the statesmen that took over were mindful of the importance of political stability and law and order in the country. On the contrary, seemingly endless ethnic conflicts in Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria, Chad, Angola, Ethiopia, and the Congo have cost many millions and made these countries highly unstable. One of the major reasons behind political instability in these countries is that the politicians deliberately invoke "ethnic action and nationalism", for ulterior motives, to achieve political and economic objectives. When that happens conflict takes shape of a vicious circle with no end in sight making political instability a norm rather than an exception.

We have started to see similar signs in Nepal too. While lawlessness continues, politicians talk as if a peaceful democratic transition can be taken for granted. But it cannot. Failure to combat lawlessness and instability undermines a country´s stock of ´social´ capital - that is, the relations of inter-group solidarity and cohesion which allow negotiation, compromise, and agreement between opposing factions. In Nepal, the consequence of the failure to stem the vortex of violence and lawlessness is that the country is fragmenting into an archipelago of competing power factions. Unless these centrifugal forces are contained, the country will drift further and further from a social compact.

The question, however, in the case of Nepal is whether or not Dahal is interested in maintaining political stability and containing violence? If the answer is yes, why is political instability and violence increasing with each passing day?Anyone following Nepali politics closely knows very well that the Maoists want more political violence and chaos—not less. If you look at the Maoists movement, it becomes evident that as the frequency and magnitude of their violent activities increased, so did their level of recognition and their domination over the existing political parties and the state got greater. For the Maoists, violence pays and as long as they benefit politically from it, they are not going to abandon violence. It’s a no-brainer. The chief ideologue of the Maoist movement, Baburam Bhattarai, has openly admitted that violence and chaos benefits his party politically. If violence did not matter and benefit them politically, they would not have formed the Young Communist League (YCL).

Unlike visionary statesmen such as Jawaharlal Nehru and Nelson Mandela, who followed acts of destruction with greater acts of construction, Nepali Maoists ideologues’ quench for destruction seems to have no boundary. Nehru and Mandela fought tirelessly against oppression and injustices, but after coming to power, they spent many years preserving the systems that their predecessors had put in place. Once in power, Mandela, who had approved radical and violent resistance to apartheid, reached out to White’s to create a multicultural South Africa. Maybe, it is absurd to compare Bhattarai – who thinks destruction alone will pave the way for construction – with Nehru, who preserved existing institutions, which he rightly thought was necessary to build a modern democratic state. The point I am trying to make here is that people without violent streaks have proved to be more constructive in world history. If destruction was the only way towards construction, Somalia and Afghanistan by now would have been the most prosperous state on the face of this earth.It is time that we, Nepalis, realize that putting too much faith on politicians will only result in disappointment.

The moderates within the society need to come out before it is too late. We need to force the state to address the genuine grievances of ethnic minorities and maintain law and order. It is not the ordinary Nepali citizens who are blocking the emancipation of ethnic groups. It is the ruling coalition’s largest partner which is not able to fulfill the promises that it made on its way to get where they are today. Why should an ordinary Nepali struggling to remain afloat pay the price for someone else’s wayward political ambitions?

Re-thinking Maoist Democracy

2009-03-30T18:14:00.001-04:00

The populist floodgates that have been thrown open has dangerously destabilized the country. In the name of equality, ethnic fundamentalism is on the rise. Law and order situation is in a shambles. Judiciary is being ridiculed and attacked. Can a nation with an acutely vulnerable judiciary, absence of law and order, and social capital (dangerously depleted by rising ethnic hatred) prosper and consolidate democracy?

Nepal represents a failing democracy in which the prospects for consolidation have narrowed down significantly mainly due to the politicians´ inability to manage peoples’ expectations and to look for solutions for domestic political problems from within the country.The ruling party has been inconsistently consistent about their lack of faith in multi-party democracy and the opposition parties do not have the required strength and vision to mainstream the Maoists. Democratic consolidation in Nepal now is a generational challenge, requiring a long-term process of locally embedded civil society development, party institutionalization, and the disarmament of insurgency groups.

Virtually nothing will be achieved at this point by blaming the Maoists for derailing the democratic process and looking for an external solution to the problem. Why would the Maoists strengthen a system in which they never had faith to begin with? The Maoists had it all figured out. They wanted to get rid of the old political structure and fill the vacuum, which they have succeeded in doing so. With their militia controlling rural areas, they knew very well that major political parties of yesteryears would not be able to stand their wrath for long. The Maoists’ calculation went awry when ethnic dissent sparked off. But they quickly figured out a way to deal with it. By accommodating Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Nepal Sadbhavana Party in the government, they have frozen the chances of large scale ethnic revolt that could potentially bring down their government. As far as small-scale ethnic dissent is concerned, they are ready to strike a deal even if such deals have the potential to hurt the nation in the future. Their past deals clearly show how well they have mastered the art of using “useful idiots.”

Their biggest hurdle for now is neutralizing the Nepali Army (NA) and overhauling the bureaucracy. They want to neutralize the army because it is the only institution in Nepal that can put a brake to the Maoists march towards establishment of one party rule. By neutralizing the army—the process has already begun with the formation of Army Integration Special Committee—they want to negate the possibility of a takeover by the army or an army-backed government. For the Maoists, overhauling the bureaucracy is equally important because the Maoists know it very well that the Nepali bureaucracy is not neutral. The Maoists will not hesitate to provide golden parachutes so that they can get rid of civil servants they don’t want. By doing so, the Maoists will not only substantially reduce the threat to their regime but also please donors and other external players that have been advocating for reforms in security sector and bureaucracy. Actually, it might be perceived as a step towards promoting good governance by the donors and the Maoist government might end up benefiting both diplomatically and financially.

The Maoists have never shied away from making known their desire to establish one-party rule in Nepal. The one-party rule they want to establish does not have to be like North Korea´s. They can live with the West Bengal-type model, where they can run the show without much of a threat from other political players. Probably, that is the easiest and safest route for the Maoists. All they have to do is continue what they have been doing so far—flush out the political cadres of major political parties from rural areas. That way they can guarantee the outcome of future elections and appear democratic to the external world at the same time. This formula was successfully experimented in Constituent Assembly elections and it worked out pretty well in favor of the Maoists. They might want to take this experiment to the urban areas now. But how difficult would that be when you have the covert support of security forces, and the bureaucracy is willing to do the needful?

While the Maoists are working hard to find a way within the country to consolidate their rule, the opposition parties appear clueless regarding how to preserve their political space. The leaders of the opposition parties once again want our southern neighbor to devise a survival formula for them.What the politicians of opposition parties fail to understand is, even if they come to the power and rule the country, which is only possible through NA´s backing, they will not be able to run the show for very long. They want to rule the country that no longer exists. Today’s Nepal is drastically different from the past. Nepal, as a nation, has gone too far left. First of all, even if India supports the opposition’s quest for power, removing the Maoists from power will not be as easy as removing Gyanendra Shah. The support that Pushpa Kamal Dahal has and the scale of violence that he can unleash is no match to the support and options that the former king had. So even if opposition parties bounce back with tacit support from India and the backing of NA, which in my view is completely unacceptable and undemocratic, they will not be able to rule for long. Dahal has way more support than what Gyanendra enjoyed during his rule. And, think about the cross-mobility of communists from the CPN-UML to the Maoist party. The recent college elections have clearly shown that the younger generation in Nepal is increasingly leaning towards the left. There is nothing to be cheerful about the poor showing of the Maoists in recent student union elections. Third place is good enough. It will not take very long for student leaders from the UML-affiliated student wing to migrate to the Maoist wing. They share the same ideology.

The options that the opposition parties in Nepal have at this point are very limited. For now, they should forget about scratching the backs of foreign leaders to garner support to bounce back to power. Such move is neither democratic, nor will it help them remain in power for long. The only way to keep the Maoists deviating away from democratic path is by keeping them engaged. It will take time, which Girija Prasad Koirala and other aged leaders unfortunately do not have on their side given their age and desire to establish their siblings in politics. We had an option to taste the success that Mahinda Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka is enjoying now, but we decided not to take that route and it is now too late to even think about it. Now, it is an ideological battle between the hardcore leftists and true democrats, if any. NA should not be dragged into this fight.

Let the people of Nepal themselves realize the difference between living in a liberal society and under hardcore leftists´ rule. A revolution that will occur then after will be the real revolution for democracy. It will be a long slog but would be worthier than the shortcut our southern neighbor devises for us. Not very long ago they devised a formula to establish democracy in Nepal and we all know how well it worked out. We are the ones who are now paying for their five-decade-long expertise in democratic consolidation. Do we really need another set of formulas from them again?

Unite for Democracy

2009-01-12T12:18:00.001-05:00

Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

The Maoist ascendency to the power was the biggest political surprise of 2008. The result of the Constituent Assembly (CA) poll, which was conducted without the required political preparation and adequate security arrangements by the Nepali Congress (NC) led government, shocked everyone: from immediate neighbors to the power centers overseas. As a matter of fact, the “April surprise” not only shocked the keen observers outside the country, but also the major political parties of the yesteryears, who till then thought that they were the ones that were actually mainstreaming the Maoists.

The CA election completely turned the table around. All of a sudden, benevolent appeasers, whose never ending concessions to the Maoists reduced a genuine peace process to an “appease process” were at the receiving end. An unexpected victory in the CA election gave the Maoists an opportunity to go their own way.

While the people who are aware of what radical communism is capable of delivering watched the Maoist ascendancy to the power with trepidation, gullible “coffee shop” hopping intelligentsia appeared least bothered. The defeat of democratic forces in the CA election was rationalized as a step forward in integration of the Maoists into the democratic process. The Maoists know very well as and how to garner the sympathy and support of a gullible intelligentsia and partisan civil society, don't they?

It's been almost nine months since the CA election was conducted and approximately four months since the Maoists formed the government. A question that we ought to be asking ourselves is -- are we in fact better off than we were a year ago? If the answer is no, how long should we wait before we decide to do something about the rapidly worsening situation?

Puspa Kamal Dahal, himself, has admitted that he has failed to deliver and match the people's expectations. The grand dream of transforming the nation with hydro dollars has gone bust after the declaration of energy crisis. Hundred plus hours of load-shedding per week and labor union militancy have dwarfed the possibility of foreign direct investment in the country. How will the Maoists transform the nation and provide dividends they have been promising all along? Every Nepali should be asking this question in order to come to a rational conclusion on whether or not the Maoists have what it takes to transform the nation.

The Maoists simply do not care about the sufferings of poor and the downtrodden. They gain from the unfair advantage that Nepalese people suffer from a lack of hope in the possibility of getting an authentic and good government that will tend to the grossly unattended needs of our society. What the Maoists are doing is cleverly manipulating the psychological insecurities of Nepali people. They are least concerned about how badly it hurts collective self-esteem.

Instead of taking responsibility for the failures, Puspa Kamal Dahal and his psy-war experts, are once again threatening a "mass revolt." They do so because it benefits them politically. By simply reminding of us pain, suffering and dread of future terror, they want us to eventually weaken and give in to their demands. Their ultimate goal is to capture our hearts and minds -- to convert us.

How can threat of bloodshed transform our attitudes in favor of the Maoists' worldview? Wouldn't we recoil in horror and, if anything, move farther away from sympathy toward the perpetrators of violence? Nope. Look at how jihadists in radicalized Islamic societies across the world "convert" innocent individuals to Islam by threat of death. It is just a matter of applying the tactics that works at individual level to a larger scale. It does work. The counterintuitive result of the CA election is a proof. It's been already tested on our own soil.

When Thomas Jefferson said that “people get the government they deserve,” he must have had people like us in mind, who can easily be duped. It did not take us very long to buy “revolutionary dreams” sold by the Maoists, did it?

So what is the way out? A strong democratic alliance is the need of the hour. It, however, has to have clear goals and objectives. Or else, it will be perceived as a “grand design” of fat cats within the NC, UML, RJP, and RPP to make a grand come back, and hence, will not take off. The Nepali people, who have been duped again and again in the name of salvation, deserve a detailed plan about how salvation would occur this time around. There are way too many “dream merchants” in Nepal for people to believe in.

Patience is great, but the longer we wait, the more damage gets done. The very day our southern neighbor comes to a conclusion that the China-leaning Maoist regime cannot be dislodged anytime soon, disintegration of Nepal is guaranteed. For India, its national security is more important than territorial integrity or sovereignty of Nepal.

The delay in emergence of a strong democratic alliance will cost us dearly. The Maoist party by cozying with Upendra Yadav is under a false impression that Madhesi revolt is all but over. Besides that, the Maoists do not have any moral ground to go against the wishes of the ethnic parties since they ignited the flame of dissident politics. It has to be done by an outfit that understands the threat and is genuinely interested in empowering the Madhesis. By not going after a permanent solution, the Maoists are allowing ethnic hustlers that are ready to outdo Lengdup Dorje to forward their political agenda.

By attacking media and interfering in religious tradition, the Maoists are feeling the pulse of Nepalese society. They will tell you what you want to hear, but will do what benefits them politically. The Maoist ministers' sojourn to the jail where Ramesh Babu Pant and Ramesh KC were housed clearly exhibits moral bankruptcy on part the Maoist ideologues. Don't we know already how low they can stoop?

There might still be some within the major political parties of yesteryears that think “appeasement” is the only way out to moderate the Maoists and secure the lost political space. This is a prescription for disaster. Appeasement always encourages your master to further subjugate you. If more subjugation is not immediately forthcoming in response to appeasement, it's only a strategic delay. Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

Ignore history at your own peril!

Practice what you preach

2008-12-15T18:20:00.000-05:00

Last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai shocked everyone. Nearly two hundred innocent men and women lost their precious lives and many more were injured. In anger over Mumbai attacks, while the nation was grieving the loss, Indian media and politicians, as usual, tirelessly vilified and pointed the finger at Pakistan. Blaming the usual suspect, Pakistan, began even before evidences were gathered and the lone surviving terrorist was interrogated.

Although the notoriety of Pakistan's Intelligence Agency, ISI in providing aid and comfort to Islamofascists that want to inflict harm on India cannot be denied based on its past activities, India should also take responsibility for its own security lapses and failure to address issues that are fuelling the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Indian subcontinent. Is it because of India's rigid posture on Kashmiri issues or is it due to India's inability to lift the status of millions of Muslims that are at the bottom of the pyramid, to whom, the prosperity of the last two decades has failed to bring about any real changes? What actually is it that is luring young men and women in Indian subcontinent towards radical Islam?

By attacking landmarks in the financial capital of India, Mumbai, jihadist juggernauts wanted to do two things: expose India's vulnerabilities and slow down India's economic progress. The recent terrorist attacks in Indian subcontinent also signal shift in venue of global terrorism. Lately, South Asia has become a focal point for terrorism directed against the western nations. By targeting westerners in Mumbai, Islamic radicals wanted to send a message about shift in venue for holy jihad. It clearly shows how the trends in terrorism continue to shift from the Middle East to South Asia. With Afghanistan slipping into chaos and Nepal on freefall, jihadists have more than needed space to operate in South Asia. If terrorism is to be wiped out from South Asia, along with Pakistan, India too, has substantial homework to do.

First and foremost, India should work on its definition of “terrorism.” For India, groups that are waging armed struggle for the liberation of Kashmir from Pakistani soil are terrorists, and it wants Pakistani government to go after them, but when it comes to India's turn to act, it simply looks the other way. While India blames Pakistan for providing aid and comfort to the anti-Indian elements, India's own record is not as clean as it wants others to believe. It is an open secret about where the Maoists ideologues, who raised arms against the state, and whom Indian government unilaterally branded as terrorists lived for the most part of the decade long insurgency. The Maoists movement that brought Nepal to its knees would not have been succeeded without India's generosity. India not only provided the Maoists a safe heaven to operate, but also forced democratic forces to bed with them, whose ugly repercussions are unfolding slowly.

India's soft corner for those that raise arms against Nepali state did not end with its generosity towards the Maoists. It continues to provide safe heaven to armed secessionist groups that want to disintegrate Nepal. How is Pakistan's support to Jihadists that want to free Kashmir different from India's turning blind eyes on groups that have raised arms to seek secession? Armed struggle in Nepal will not survive without Indian benevolence.

What India as a nation should understand is that, it can only progress the way it wants to, when South Asia as a regions is, stable and peaceful. It cannot and will not remain insulated from the pouring in of negative externalities if its neighbors fail. It should, thus, stop providing safe heaven to groups that raise arms against its neighbors. Only then, India will have moral authority to ask Pakistan to go after the groups that carry out anti-Indian activities in Pakistani soil.

If India continues to provide safe heaven to the armed groups that raise arms against Nepal, armed struggle in Nepal will never wane. Bunch of incompetent but ambitious individuals that lack patience and caliber to win the hearts and mind of Nepali people through peaceful democratic means will keep on waging wars in the name of fighting oppression. Looking at honeymoon period of the Maoist government, it becomes evident that rhetoric alone is not enough to bring changes. For change to come, the rulers should have a vision and competence. Is India ready to be held accountable, if the so called revolutionaries, to whom it provides safe heaven, fail to deliver, like the Maoists, and bring about positive changes?

The Maoists in Nepal had an excellent opportunity bring about changes. There was no need to create rogue institution like Young Communist League (YCL). They had already created a political space for themselves. The defeat of stalwarts of the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML) at the hands of the obscure Maoists figures clearly showed that the UML's grassroots operatives had mass-migrated to the Maoists Party. Instead of trying to capitalize their gains and focusing on providing services to the people, the Maoists remained glued to their red book, which states terror as a method social control.

With the honeymoon period over, the excitement generated by Maoists' revolution has dissipated. With waning of euphoria, Puspa Kamal Dahal finds himself under fire. His next step? If worst comes, step down and wreck havoc till the next government is overwhelmed. The Nepali politics is sure to get confrontational in days to come. The way things are unfolding, it appears that, we will once again witness a bloody conflict, whereby the very same people who declared the Maoists terrorists will be at the helm of affairs, and the Maoists at offensive. Who gains from this, if this is to really happen? Not Nepali people for sure!

India, when it comes to its own security, aggressively calls for wiping out groups that act against India's national security, but when it is India's turn to reciprocate, its record has been pretty dismal. If nothing, what India can and should learn from the failure of the Maoist government in Nepal is that, there are tons of incompetent and ambitious politicians in Nepal, who are ready to wage war against the state. How do you identify true revolutionaries that can change the face of Nation from phonies, who pose as revolutionaries and wage wars against the state to forward their political agendas? And, will the justification for armed struggle ever get over if a neighbor keeps on rewarding armed insurgencies targeted at its neighbor?

There will always be complaints about injustice caused by the state. No country has ever been fully able to satisfy its citizens. But that cannot simply be the reason for armed struggle. India should force various armed groups that are waging wars against its neighbor to shut down their shops if it really wants Pakistan to go after jihadists that are waging holy war against India.

India cannot win the war against terrorism on its own. If it really wants to win this war, it has to stop the blame game and cooperate with its neighbors.

They just don't get it!

2008-11-13T16:32:00.002-05:00

There is plenty of room to suspect the motives of the trio -- Koirala, Sitaula and Mahat

The constitution drafting process has not begun even after the six months of the Constituent Assembly (CA) election. While Puspa Kamal Dahal and his men are busy enjoying the power, for the likes of Bam Dev Gautam, it is business as usual. The Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) does not appear very much interested in pushing Madheshi issues, which it cashed in successfully during the CA election forward. For now, Upendra Yadav is happy to be, where he is. As long as he is in power, Madheshi issues will remain on the back burner.

While the parties that are in power are enjoying the limelight and the power, the Nepali Congress (NC) that ruled the country for the last one and a half decades appears bewildered, bitter, and directionless. The party leaders seem to have run out of fresh ideas. All they do these days is -- regurgitate how big of a threat the Maoists are to democracy in Nepal. Are the Maoists really a threat to democracy? Absolutely yes! I, for one, never believed that the Maoists were for multiparty democracy. It is not just me; the Maoists themselves have time and again reiterated that their ultimate goal is to establish a communist state. The misinterpretation of the Maoists' strategic intent always came from the very people that are now charging the Maoists for being threat to democracy.

While in the corridor of power, it never occurred to Girija Prasad Koirala, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, and Ram Sharan Mahat that the Maoists were a threat to democracy. While we were questioning the Maoists' strategic end goal, these were the very people telling the Nepali people that the CPN (Maoist) was a reformed force that wanted a safe landing and were in the process of getting mainstreamed.

As long as they were in power, they didn't utter a word about the Maoist intentions. Then Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula looked the other way when the Maoists committed heinous crimes (the murderers of Jitendra Shah and the Young Communist League thugs that thrashed Dr Gyanendra Giri never got punished) and former finance minister Ram Sharan Mahat exhibited his sense of entitlement on national coffer by disbursing 330 million to the ex-members of the legislature-parliament. He never told the public, whose money he was handing over to the Maoists, that he had records of whether or not their hard-earned money were being put to good use by the Maoists.

All of a sudden now, these very people who put our freedom into the clutches of the Maoists, are trying to convince us that they are the ones, who understand the threat to democracy from the Maoists and are actually capable of getting us out. Isn't that ludicrous? Why would anyone want to go to a doctor, who misdiagnosed the problem in the first place?

There is plenty of room to suspect the motives of the trio -- Koirala, Sitaula and Mahat. Are they really for democracy or simply playing the 'democracy' card to bounce back to the power? After getting wedded in a submissive relationship for three years, these people are opening up their mouth now. Should the Nepalis believe them when they say they understand that radical communism poses a threat to democracy and are actually capable of defending people's freedom?

What did Koirala and his henchmen in the cabinet do to ensure the victory of democratic forces in the CA election? Actions speak louder than words. You can fool some people sometimes, but you can't fool all the people all the time.

In a nation where a third of people live on less than a dollar, a mere use of a "noun," a "verb," and the word democracy in political speeches won't convince people. And, if you were one of the happy campers that allowed the Maoists reduce the peace process to appease process, forget about it. For these poor, there was no democracy to begin with. They never got a chance to enjoy the dividends of democracy or else they would not be such a massive support for the Maoists amongst the poor and the downtrodden. For another 40 percent or so, it is all about jobs, good education for their children, and better access to health care. If anyone can assure them of that, they will readily side with that person or the party and that is what is precisely happening in Nepal. The poor are happy dreaming about the prosperity that the Maoists have promised them. By the time the younger generation that is rallying behind Dahal actually understands what communism is capable of delivering; there will be no Puspa Kamal Dahal, Baburam Bhattarai, and the likes. The Maoists henchmen will have played their innings by then.

What percentage do educated and economically well off people that value democracy and freedom make up in Nepal? Ten percent would be a generous estimate. Do the people in this ultra minority actually believe that Koirala, Sitaula and Mahat really stand for liberal democracy and freedom that educated class cherishes for? Had the answer been in affirmative, people like Professor Krishna Khanal would not be deserting the NC. When people like him jump off a ship, it is time to know that either the ship has a hole on it or the sailors are a bunch of drunkards, who have no clue about where they are sailing the ship to.

Is the game over? Not yet, but it has definitely gotten increasingly difficult. Personally, I don't have confidence on the very people who lacked the judgment on what the Maoists stood for and what they were actually up to. If they knew it, then they were not being honest about it. In any case, they are not the kind of leaders Nepal needs to consolidate democracy.

We need new faces to confront new challenges that we are facing. There still exists an opening.
Freedom and democracy can still be snatched from the clutches of the Maoists. But for that to actually happen, we need young politicians that believe in democracy to come out and take political centre stage. The mainstream media is still up for democracy in Nepal. So, with media on your side, you can obscure the Maoists' propaganda with clear and concise message. But all this has to come from someone clean and credible, not from phonies, who pose as democrats. Not from someone who got us into the Maoists' lap, and are now posing as saviors.

The sheer regurgitation of the phrase "democracy in peril" will not be sufficient to defeat the Maoists, who want to destroy people's right to choose whether they want to send their kids to a private or public school and which hospital they want to visit and which doctor they want to see, when ill. If the Maoists have their ways, like in Cuba, specialised diagnostic studies (e.g., CT scans, endoscopies, ultrasound, etc.) and treatments (e.g., chemotherapy, radiation therapy, surgery, etc.) will have to be approved by bureaucrats. Ask general Nepalis if that is what they want.

The Maoists have been clamouring that they would transform the country in the coming decades by attracting foreign investments. Who would invest in a country where union militancy is promoted by the party that runs the government and where the largest faction of the coalition government has a brigade or brigands that can take laws into their hand and operate without impunity? Who will invest in a country whose finance minister openly threatens private sector ordering that private school and hospital owners should look for investment alternatives? Ask these questions to the Maoists that are selling dreams without being challenged.

It is important for people to understand that, what the democrats in Nepal have to offer is, far better than what the Maoists are promising. The sheer regurgitation of "democracy in peril" will not do the trick. The more you regurgitate it, the more you will look stupid and out of touch with reality.

From freefall to a basket case?

2008-08-11T00:29:00.000-04:00

It's been four months since the Constituent Assembly (CA) election was held and we still don't have a legitimate government. Is it because the proportional representation system has started producing disproportionate results or because the self-portrayed progressives have resorted to the same old tricks played during the coalition era of the past decades?

If the government formation takes four months, how long will it take to undo the failures of the past governments and deliver the dividends of democracy? With this pace, when will the wholesale transformation of Nepal's political and social foundation and the apparent consensus be achieved between various ethnic groups in Nepal?

As usual, no political party is ready to take the responsibility for the current political impasse. Accountability has evaporated in countless networks, bargaining and search for compromises. Shouldn't someone somewhere be responsible for the current state of affairs?

A daughter of noted neurosurgeon was abducted in broad day light from the heart of the capital. Unable to rely on the professional ability of the security apparatus, the hapless father pays multi-million rupees in ransom for the safe release of his sibling. Dr Devkota's willingness to pay ransom to the abductors is an example of erosion of people's faith in government's ability to solve their problems. This is one among hundreds if not thousands of cases happening every month.

Our so-called intellectuals get baffled when high profile abduction cases like the one involving the daughter of Dr Upendra Devkota occur. Like an ignorant little child who suddenly wakes up after a bad dream, they start questioning the existence of the nation's security apparatus and the responsibility of the Home Ministry. Anyone keeping a close tab on Nepal can easily tell that the law and order situation in the country is in a shambles and it has been so for a long time now. It certainly did not happen overnight for anyone to miss it, did it? What appears as if the abduction of Dr Devkota's daughter was the first ripple in a perfectly calm lake? The lake has been muddied and unsettled for a long time now. It is just that in order to appear politically correct some of us chose not to question the abilities of the guards responsible to keep the lake clean and healthy.

We live in a country where the vice-president of the country flouts court order, home minister overlooks crimes (killers of Jitendra Sah and Ram Hari Shrestha are still at large) and the prime minister, instead of firing the incompetent home minister, uses him as his emissary. Lawlessness starts from the top and trickles down to the common man. Criminals at the bottom of this food chain of lawlessness are taking every opportunity to take the law into their hands because that is the example leaders are leading with.

The major political parties are intoxicated by foul poison of power and this is evidenced by their disgraceful attitude towards formation of the new government and writing a constitution. From old guards of Nepali politics to the new entrants like the Maoists, MPRF, and TMLP, political honesty is something that is seriously lacking. Moral nudity on part of the Maoists has become so apparent that it is hard to trust their words.

Needless to say, they were not trustworthy to begin with. When the chances of getting into the power brightens, they suggest the return of all seized properties and curbing illegal acts of their brigade of brigands (YCL), but as soon as their chances of clinching to the power fades, their threat-laden statements start flying in all directions. They get verbal diarrhea.

It is not only the Maoists that have mastered the art of deal making. Upendra Yadav has picked it in a relatively shorter period of time. He is ready to join hands with anyone and everyone so long as he gets his share. The Maoists' call for having a Madhesi president and a Pahadi vice-president was a logical one, but for Upendra Yadav, having his man as a vice-president was more important than ensuring ethnic balance in the top most posts of the land. For him, inclusion of other ethnic groups is irrelevant. So long as the process ensures the inclusion of the members of his vote bank, ethnic empowerment is on the roll!

In order to minimize the dissent that arises from the incompetence on the part of politicians, the political parties have divided the nation along political ideology and ethnicity. And with each passing day, the people are getting sucked into this game plan devised by our politicians to cover up their incompetence and enhance their own political agendas. If a Madhesi intellectual raises a red flag against functioning of Madhesi leaders, he is immediately branded as a traitor. He becomes an instant enemy of his community. Many Madhesis dislike the president simply because, in their eyes, he is not Madhesi enough. His clarion call for national unity is in collision course with agendas pursued by those that do not see anything wrong with vice-president taking oath in Hindi even though it is unconstitutional. If something is unconstitutional, it is unlawful. And, that is how it ought to be.

How we got here and where are we headed? Many of us decided not to raise our voice against the failures of our politicians because our beloved politicians have created an environment whereby anyone, who questions their ability to handle the situation well automatically falls into a least wanted category-status quoists. Is it finally time to realize that Bollywood-type happy ending is not something that happens in African-style drama?

Unless the people rise and make their voice heard, politicians are not going to mend their ways. If we continue to remain divided, we may lose any chances that we might have from this point onwards to emerge as a functional democracy and may end up as a basket case of Asia.

Nepal, in every sense, is a nation under construction. The depth and scale of the transformation taking place in every dimension of Nepal's social, economic, and political lives is very rapid and difficult for even experts to comprehend. The ongoing experiment of building a "New Nepal" if handled properly could be one of the most successful developments in the history of the nation. But if it fails, the consequences for Nepal could be tragic, and possibly catastrophic.

The ultimate betrayal

2008-07-22T00:07:00.001-04:00

Finally, by nominating Ram Raja Prasad Singh for the post of president, the Maoists have officially ended an era of consensus politics. An eternal journey with the Maoists, which the Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) told us was necessary to build a "New Nepal," is in lurch, after the Maoists have shut the door on the NC and the UML and have decided to build a "New Nepal" on their own.

Things are shaping up to be pretty odd. With the Maoists' latest act of betrayal, Nepali politics is, slowly but surely, getting confrontational. With the Maoists resorting to, my-way-or-the highway attitude, the settling of political vendetta will take the center-stage. Constitution making is the last thing in the minds of politicians. For the Maoists, it is all about how to consolidate the power, and for others, how to contain the Maoists and maximize political bargains.

The mainstream political parties of yesteryears are back to the square one. In 2005, an autocratic monarch had shut the door on them, and now, after three years, it is the very party that they helped spread base in the urban center repeating the act. Is it fate's cruel prank or inability on the part of UML and NC politicians to understand and tackle authoritarian tendencies?

Was it expected? Oh, yes, except a few greedy power-mongers within the NC and the UML, who thought that protracted ideological decay was worth it, everyone else were well aware of the Maoists' intent, and saw betrayal coming. Short term power mongering over long term political survival was almost certain to yield the consolidation of state power, but with the Maoists at the helm.

The NC and UML were bound to get betrayed. It was just a matter of time. It is not only because the Maoists' modus operandi is based on betrayal and lies, but also because the Maoists' strategic end goal: the establishment of a one-party communist republic directly conflicts with the end goal of the NC and UML. Anyone following the Maoist insurgency can easily tell that, at no point throughout the entire period of insurgency or the peace process has its leadership or the surrogates expressed anything but a full-fledged commitment to the establishment of a dictatorship of the proletariats. Any misrepresentation of the Maoists' strategic intent has come from outside the party -- mainly from the power-mongers within the NC, UML or the left-leaning civil society.

Had Girija Prasad Koirala not allowed the peace process to be reduced to an "appease process" by fulfilling each and every demand raised by the Maoists, the situation would have been quite different now. Had he taken time to dispassionately evaluate the Maoist machine, he would have understood long ago that the Maoists are in this to win -- not to compromise, or become mainstreamed or to play by anyone else's rules but their own.

The Maoists were successful in clouding his judgments by dangling "Presidential Lollypop" in front of him. Once the Maoists started doing that, their anti-social and undemocratic means were simply shrugged off as negativities associated with the transitional phase.

The NC and UML should learn a lesson from how the Maoists have done "business" to date. Their failure to put oneself inside the Maoist mind and see things as they see them, to understand their beliefs, strategy, and supporting tactics have put ordinary cadres in far flung villages in a very difficult position.

In the last two years, the fat cats within the NC and UML might have profited financially, but when it comes to grassroots cadres, they are worse off than they were three years ago. In the tarai, they have to face the wrath of the secessionists like Nagendra Paswan and Jay Krishna Goit, and in the hills, newly mushroomed ethnic militant groups have made their life miserable. It is not only the NC and UML cadres that are having a hard time in the changed political context, but there is another group called Internally Displaced People (IDPs) that did not benefit a bit from the grand coalition of the last three years. They are the forgotten heroes, whose woes both the NC and the UML chose to ignore.

What next? The Maoists will use different combinations of muscle power and ballots to eliminate all marginal threats to their expanding power base. Whether this process of elimination occurs figuratively or literally, whether through perversions of democratic process or through decrees will get clearer in the days ahead.

There is a very little evidence to support that the Maoists will play by the democratic rule book. They will pretend to act democratic as long as it benefits them to do so, but that does not mean that the Maoists have embraced multi-party democracy. They have already started to interpret their victory in the CA election as unconditional support for the full execution of the 'Prachanda path." The chances for a radical party to continue carrying out radical policies in the changed political context should not be negated. It would be a mistake of Himalayan proportion to rely on liberal interpretations of what the Maoist leaders say.

Puspa Kamal Dahal is not that foolish to adopt North Korean-styled one party rule in the current geopolitical situation, but he will do everything to ensure that there is no threat to the Maoist regime from the political opponents that believe in Western-styled multi-party parliamentary democracy. With the brigade of brigands (YCL) at his disposal and the state's security forces under his control, it will not be very difficult for him to find other ways to subvert political competition and administer social control.

The future of the mainstream political parties of yesteryears such as the NC and the UML and the new entrants like MJF and TMLP will largely depend upon how quickly they can reinvent themselves and provide credible alternatives to the Maoist writ. They have a very difficult role to play: checkmate the Maoists and appear constructive to the general populace at the same time. Or else, they will be painted as obstructionists. With security apparatus under the Maoists' control and YCL in villages, the Maoists have more than they need to win elections. The last thing you want to do is give them a chance to vilify your personality.

Lethal freefall

2008-07-15T01:43:00.003-04:00

Lately, politicians have discovered a new mantra for building a "New Nepal." And that new mantra is, "negotiation." Be it mutiny within the security forces or an absurd demand like creating a single province to house heterogeneous populace, anything and everything is up for negotiation. Nepal could tip into "freefall" if a parameter for what is negotiable and what is not, is not set.

There is no method to the ongoing political madness. Politicians can do anything and everything and get away with it. There is no accountability whatsoever. We have a finance minister, who talks about fiscal responsibility and financial restraint, but runs finance ministry like a drunken sailor. He wants to exhibit his sense of entitlement on national coffer by disbursing 330 million to ex-members of the Legislature-Parliament. And, we have another great one -- Krishna Prasad Sitaula. Nobody has really been able to understand, who his real masters are.

Sitaula's job is to maintain law and order in the country and that is what precisely he has been unable to do for the last two years. The Young Communist Leaguers seem to be safer than ordinary citizens under his tenure as a home minister. Sitaula has his own unique way of uplifting the spirits of Nepal Police -- negotiate with mutineers. What a brilliant home minister we have, don't we? If you negotiate with mutineers, mutiny will never end. The only way to deal with it is, do what other countries do -- use brute force to bring it down so that it never happens again. If there are institutional problems like ill-treatment of the fellow servicemen and corruption in the security forces, which I am sure there are, initiate institutional reforms.

In a lawless society like ours, mutiny if negotiated, will shatter the required cohesiveness within the forces and destroy its ability to maintain law and order.

It is not only the Nepali Congress (NC) that houses "luminaries," Jhapali Naxalites too have their own set of geniuses that are relentlessly engaged in churning out innovative ideas. In order to fight widespread corruption and social injustices and counter youth brigade of brigands of Ropali revolutionaries (read YCL), Jhapali Naxalites have come up with a custom and unique solution -- create brigade of brigands of their own. Initially, we had one brigade of brigands to deal with, now, we have two. For ordinary citizens, it might be "political warlordism," but for our progressive leftists, it is an efficient use of wasted youth force. Can anyone argue against such a brilliant proposition?

In Nepali politics, politicians' past does not hold any importance. You can be from a Tharu community; marry a Pahari woman, serve pahari masters for decades and make fortune out of it, marry off your siblings to paharis, and overnight propose yourself as the biggest proponent of Madhesis' rights. Pahari-bashing is fine, you might have to do that to disassociate with past associations, but discrediting Tharus' revolution against one Madhes, one province proposal as UML's sponsored act is, totally outlandish. And, strangely, Madhesi friends with whom we grew up idolize such politicians and see us as colonizers. Where in the world will you find such a well- intentioned people other than in Nepal?

As an undergraduate student at the University of Delhi in the mid-nineties, I was surprised to see my Indian friends hate Pakistan. During the cricket matches between India and Pakistan, hostel's common room where we gathered to watch matches would be filled with curse words. It was surprising to see my friends whose parents might not have been born during the partition share such strong emotions against their neighbor. Pakistan-bashing politics practiced in India for the last fifty years is to be blamed for that. While India shirks its responsibility in establishing and supporting Mohajir Qaumi Movement in Pakistan, it blames Pakistan for every terrorist attack that takes place in Indian soil. In the process of finding a "scapegoat" for its security lapses, India has permanently vilified Pakistan in the hearts and minds of millions of Indians.

Like in India, where Indian politicians have been cashing in on anti-Pakistan rhetoric for more than half a century now, Madhesi politicians in Nepal are filling the hearts and mind of illiterate and semi-literate Madhesi populace with anti-Pahari propaganda. Every pahari living in Madhes is being painted as colonizer, which is far from reality. There are hundreds of thousands of Pahari like myself, whose family have been living in the tarai for more than eleven generations. We might have been in the Madhes well before the family of many Madhesi politicians, who now claim that the Madhes belonged to Yadavs, Thakurs, Mishras, Shahs, Shuklas, Tripathis, Mahatos, and Guptas and paharis colonized it.

I grew up with the first generation Madhesis. And, it didn't bother me a bit. So forget about, who came first and to whom Madhes belongs. Such debate will not lead us anywhere. Either by design or by default, we all are there now, and should try to prosper together. The Madhesi people should not get carried away by political slogans put out there by the politicians. Where were they when the late Gajendra Narayan Singh was fighting a lone battle against Pahari elites for Madhesis' rights and dignity?

The very same people, who blame the past rulers of forcing a national language upon Madhesis, are now giving speeches in Hindi rather than in Maithili. Politicians by nature are self-serving. It is, thus, important to remain vigilant about their motives.

It would be foolish to look upon India for emancipation of ethnic minorities in Nepal. The Bhutanese refugee imbroglio is a case in point, which clearly shows India's sensitivities towards ethnic rights of foreign nationals. For India, its national interest comes well before democratic rights or ethnic emancipation of foreign nationals. The Madhesi leaders should not be too influenced by the assurances of India's point man in Nepal. If they are really for ethnic rights of Janjatis and Madhesis in Nepal, where were they all these years? Why didn't ethnic minorities' issues come under their radar for so long?

Had India not supported King Mahendra's autocratic regime, we would have had democracy long ago. It is because of India's backing of Mahendra's rule, life of a visionary politician like B P Koirala got wasted. When India could not trust a person like BP Koirala, who had close ties with Indian leader like Jaya Prakash Narayan fully and force King Mahendra to bring down his autocratic regime, Madhesi leaders should reassess the assurances and promises made by the point man in Lainchaur durbar. Their unequivocal support for the Maoists, whom they had unilaterally branded as terrorists, in the changed political context shows how quickly they change sides. It might be worth joining hands with fellow pahari citizens in Madhesh and putting up a fight against the ruling elites for greater rights rather than be at the mercy of Indian benevolence.

One thing that I still remember what my Sri Lankan roommate of two years during my stay in Delhi University told -- there is no clear winner or loser in an ethnic conflict, we all lose equally and often wish we could undo the past. Pahari rulers should not hold the rights that Madhesis deserve and Madhesis should not stick to unreasonable demand like one Madhes, one province just because New Delhi's point man wants you all to stick to it. Sticking to unreasonable demand will make the conflict intractable and worsen the lives of not only paharis but also madhesis, whom Madhesi politicians want to see prosper.

Is it the geography, stupid?

2008-06-28T11:12:00.001-04:00

Hari Bansha Dulal & Samyam Wagle

While the debate about the probability of miraculous economic success in Nepal under Maoists leadership is going on, they have not still come up with such strong convincing economic policies that would bring such dramatic turn allowing the three fold increase in GNP in a decade's time.

No doubt that if it is possible, it is possible only through capitalism. The much needed prosperity cannot be achieved by doing what ideologues of left-populist political trajectories in Latin America do-fault neo-liberal economic policies for slow growth, no improvement in poverty rates, and sparse investment in human capital through health and education. The failure of China under Mao and success under Deng is something that is out there for the Maoists in Nepal to ponder. Repeating failed polices of Mao in some form or the other to appear politically correct would be a blunder of Himalayan proportion. The famine that resulted from Mao's short-sighted policies is far greater than African famine or the number of people killed by hunger during the entire post-independence in India.

Approximately 25 to 30 million perished in China then. Hence, replicating Mao's "super-collectivism" of 1958 to 1960, the so-called Great Leap Forward, in some form or the other would be a blunder of Himalayan proportion. If history is of any use, it is quite clear from the past that only capitalist culture can ensure both the freedom and prosperity. Never ever in the history of mankind a famine occurred in any capitalist nation.

How the Maoists will transform an impoverished landlocked nation into a promised economic powerhouse without sound economic plans is in itself a big question. It will be interesting to see how they overcome the geographic constrains. The noted economist Jeffrey D. Sachs researched the effect of geography on economy and found that nearly all landlocked countries in the world are poor, except for a handful in Western and Central Europe like Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and Switzerland which are deeply integrated into the regional European market, and connected by low - cost trade. Besides them all other land locked countries are poor because of geography that leads to high cost trade.

His famous research found that development surely seems to be favored among the temperate-zone economies, especially the subset that: (1) is in the Northern Hemisphere; (2) has avoided socialism; and (3) has avoided being ravaged by war. Tropical regions are hindered in development relative to temperate regions, probably because of higher disease burdens and limitations on agricultural productivity.

He further adds that coastal regions and regions linked to coasts by ocean-navigable waterways are strongly favored in development relative to the hinterlands. Landlocked economies may be particularly disadvantaged by their lack of access to the sea, even when they are no farther than the interior parts of coastal economies, for at least three reasons: (1) cross-border migration of labor is more difficult than internal migration; (2) infrastructure development across national borders is much more difficult to arrange that similar investments within a country; and (3) coastal economies may have military or economic incentives to impose costs on interior landlocked economies.

Leading thinkers have pointed out the four major areas in which geography will play a fundamental direct role in economic productivity. They are transport costs, human health, agricultural productivity and ownership of natural resources (including water, minerals, hydrocarbon deposits, etc).

Economists say it is the high transportation cost that inhibits the ability of landlocked countries to engage with the outside world to trade goods, exchange capital, and borrow ideas. Jeffrey Sachs also points out the burden of diseases on economic development. Tropical regions are more prone to diseases which have vital effect on economic growths. He even claims fertility decisions are affected by geography. Country like ours is still dependent on unscientific agricultural activities which again depend on monsoon rain.

Besides the fate of nations are shared by gift with valuable resources as Kuwait, Saudi Arab, Qatar, Arab are simply rich not because of their well governance but by natural gifs oil! Botswana is also the land-locked country but has diamond mines below them which make them better! Second is about the neighbors. Some might blame god for not keeping us next to Finland, Canada or Liechtenstein! Though our neighbors are the rising superpowers, our immediate neighbors are, Bihar in south and Tibet in north, both of which are the least developed states.

Even though geography plays significant role in the economic performance of a nation, it is not the only factor that determines the level of well being. Geography alone is not much of a help when it comes to evaluating the success of South Korea and backwardness of the North. If geography was the only factor determining economic prosperity, former east-Germans would not be risking their lives crossing the wall that separated starving proletariats of the east Germany from the highly prosperous Germans couple of yards west from the wall. Needless to say, the authority and policy play a major role in determining the fate of a nation. It does not take very long for a nation to go downhill and vice versa. Burma and Singapore are two nations that serve as classic examples.

While Burma, a nation with abundant resources and access to sea and once a better-off country, continues to lags behind under military Junta, continuous pursuit of Lee Kuan Yew's policies has helped Singapore surpass its east Asian neighbors. Does Puspa Kamal Dahal also have the spirit and determination to lead the impoverished Nepal and be the helmsman of 27 million Nepalese or he simply got lucky in cashing in the past failures of the major political parties and disgruntlement of the populace is yet to be seen.

The future Maoists' government should work around the geographical constraints by making shipping less relevant through lightweight manufactured and processed agricultural exports and can convert our perceived geographical liability into tourism and water wealth and other service-based industries. Maoist should create a sound atmosphere for foreign investments. Without foreign investments it would be virtually impossible to utilize the potential of the existing labor force put the existing natural resources into wealth generation. Without providing employment to the youth, it would be impossible to break the cycle of perpetual revolution and enhance the process wealth creation and multiplication. And, in the case of Nepal, both are equally important.

Apparent populism will not be of any help in achieving the required economic growth and slogans alone will not feed the proletariats. It is good to be optimistic but there should not be disconnect between what is being proposed and what can actually be achieved. Such disconnect, if any will cause an outburst of pent-up frustration. It would be wise to come up with deliverables that are really achievable. The current proposal put forward by the Maoists seems unrealistic with regards to geographic and resource constraints. Plus, with the existing stock of human and socal capital, it is virtually impossible to triple GNP in a decade's time. It is high time that the Maoists get off the populist bandwagon and pursue real achievable economic goals. No more gimmicks, please!

The great president hunt

2008-06-18T00:43:00.001-04:00

It has been more than two months since CA elections were concluded. Except for the abolishment of monarchy, which was already agreed upon, political process has not moved forward by an inch so far. It appears that unless the ongoing power sharing negotiation gains some momentum and a deal is struck, pressing issues such as skyrocketing inflation and lawlessness will have to wait. In a nation where politicians' gain come before peoples' need, do citizens have a choice?

The parties involved in the negotiation are trying hard to sell their choice for the first president of Democratic Republic of Nepal. Puspa Kamal Dahal vouches for a non-political person but proposes Ram Raja Singh for the top job. Since when did Ram Raja Singh become a non-political person? June 20, 1985's bombing, for which Singh, has taken responsibility, is not something that a law abiding non-political person gets involved in. However, when compared to the death and destruction caused by the man who is proposing him for the top job, Singh's crime is minuscule.

Although Girija Prasad Koirala has not expressed his desire to become the first president himself in public, it is an open secret. As long as the likes of Krishna Prasad Sitaula are around, is it even necessary for Koirala and Dahal to do their dirty laundry?

The Maoists were clever enough to keep Koirala guessing when it came to the issue of the first president of Nepal for the last 2 years. What the Maoists know very well but may not acknowledge in public is that, had Koirala known that he would not become the first president, he would not have pushed for a republic as hard as he did. Had the Maoists made it clear well in advance, Koirala would have refused to become a "useful idiot." So they played it smart and played it well.

Dahal and his men do not want Koirala to become the president because they seriously think that they are the ones who brought this change, and to a large extent, they are right about it. For the Maoists, making Koirala president is like acknowledging him as an agent of change. Furthermore, it opens up a space for future intervention. Given Koirala's proximity with the international players and the Nepali Army, the Maoists' game plan of swiftly marching towards the authoritarian regime may come to a grinding halt. Why take a risk? From the Maoists' stand point, it makes a perfect sense.

No matter who becomes the first president, the power sharing negotiations should come to an end pretty soon. For common Nepali citizens, Dahal's desire to checkmate Koirala and deny him the chance of fulfillment of his desire to become the first president is irrelevant. All they want at this point in time is a regular supply of fuel, textbooks for their kids, and some degree of law and order. It is, thus, completely unjustified and immoral to overlook the problems faced by the citizens and concentrate solely on sharing the pie.

It is time to move beyond the petty politicking and address the problems faced by impoverished Nepali populace. No point beating around the bush. Do what it takes and move the political process forward. If the politicians were really serious about having a well respected and accomplished citizen as a first president, they would be proposing the likes of Ganesh Raj Sharma, who not only respected the law of the land himself but also made others do it, not someone who has been involved in bombings. When the entire process is not about setting a right precedence and selecting an individual with a strong moral character, how does it matter whether it is Ram Raja Singh or the killers of Dikendra Thapa, Jitendra Sah, Ram Hari Shrestha, or for that matter, another bomber Babban Singh?

If it is all about political correctness, then why not propose Jwala Singh for the first president? A Dalit, a Madhesi, and an insurgent. What could be a better package? For the populists who value ethnicity over meritocracy and character, it would be a super deal. It might even help insurgency in the southern plains to subside. When a former insurgent can be a prime minister, why not at least discuss the prospects of an insurgent, who happens to be a Dalit and a Madhesi for the top job?

Regardless of whom the Maoists propose, when it is all said and done, there is a big probability that the Maoists might end up accepting Koirala as the first president. They are not that foolish to blow away the revolutionary gains just to appear politically correct.

How long Koirala's legacy will last in a society, which is engulfed in perpetual revolution is, altogether a different question.

Actually, the Maoists might gain by accepting Koirala as a president. The best way to preempt Koirala's anti-Maoist moves in future is to make him the president. Koirala's lust for limelight is simply too big to be underestimated. The infamous back-stabbing of Krishna Prasad Bhattarai to secure the prime ministerial berth in one of the general elections not very long ago serves as a classic example of how far Koirala can go to get what he wants. When Koirala could not contain the Maoists as the most powerful Prime Minister in the history of Nepal in the last two and half years, why should the Maoists be afraid of him as a ceremonial head of state?

Given his age, letting him become the president might be a safer bet for the Maoists.

The very minute someone else becomes the president, seven party alliance (SPA) is unofficially over. After that, political realignment will take place. The political resistance that will start after Koirala is denied his cherished dream job might be, too soon and too big, for the Maoists to contain.

Becoming a president of the youngest republic might be a dream come true for Koirala and might benefit his blind followers, but for democracy in Nepal, it will be a disaster. Once Koirala becomes the president, the ongoing appeasement of the Maoists will continue further. Having secured the place in history, it would be foolish on the part of liberal democrats to assume that Koirala will do anything to contain the Maoists and strengthen democracy. In the last two and half years, instead of containing the Maoists by forcing them to disband the YCL and surrender all their weapons, Koirala relentlessly engaged in their appeasement, which resulted in strengthening of both the political and muscle power of the Maoists. When Koirala could not understand that appeasing radicals only makes them bolder through his half a century long political career, what will he do differently and significantly after he becomes the president to force the Maoists to change their beliefs and embrace multi-party democracy?

If it is really for democracy in Nepal, the Maoists' hardheaded pursuit of having a left-leaning individual as the first president should prevail. The political realignment will occur only when Koirala is forced out. As long as Koirala enjoys the limelight, in the name of taking the peace process to its logical end, NC will keep on rationalizing the Maoists' high handedness and the march toward authoritarianism.

Hyperopic Maoists & Myopic Pundits

2008-06-03T00:15:00.002-04:00

Not even 72 hours had passed since the raising of glasses to celebrate victory over the despised monarch, Puspa Kamal Dahal's gibe, "due to the foolishness of Gyanendra, republic has been established. If the NC and UML also continue demonstrating their foolishness, people's republic will be established" forced the left-leaning civil society pundits to drop to their knees and puke till they got sober.

Dahal's words forced our pundits to get into a sober mode even before they fully got kick out of their drinks. This is what happens when the greed to remain in the limelight at the cost of ideological dilution takes a front-seat and the desire to become politically correct all the time overrides objectivity.

In order to become politically correct, the very same pundits that relentlessly advocated endless appeasement of the Maoists, are now sticking their heads out of line and saying the exact same thing that we have been saying (the end goal of the Maoists is to establish a totalitarian regime) for the last two and a half years.

With the Maoists' intention getting clearer, the left-leaning civil society members afflicted by myopia have finally started to see the rust in Maoists' sickle. They have woken up when the Maoists are actually preparing to strike their political opponents and the press in the head with their hammer.

A clarion call by a civil society pundit, who once thought that peace was not possible without the appeasement of the Maoists at this point in time when the Maoists have everything they need: popular mandate, international community's support, and their cadres willingness to fight till the finish -- might be too little and too late. The Maoists are on a march to deliver the exact same thing that the late King Mahendra delivered from the extreme right almost half a century ago. The only difference this time around is that, they will be delivering the exact same thing but from the extreme left. Does it make a difference if they declare Nepal a one-party communist state or not as long as they are successful in replicating King Mahendra's model?

With the Maoists' intention getting clearer and nervousness reigning in, in the ultra-liberal camp, the much talked about consensus politics has vanished into thin air. Politics is slowly but surely getting confrontational. The humiliating defeat in the CA elections and the constant flurry of gibes from the top-rung Maoist leaders have forced both the major political parties of yesteryears and pundits crushed with political baggage to confront an uncomfortable reality.

The NC and the UML happily traveled along "Prachanda path" when they were strong. Now, they want to deviate when they are weak. Will the Maoists let them off the hook without surrendering the power? The Maoists obviously did not fight the decade long bloody insurgency to put old guards of Nepali politics back into the power.

If we look realistically, with the Nepal Army in a silent mode and India on its side, the Maoists do not need an October revolution. The subtle threat is more than enough to bring Koirala's government to its knees. It is just a matter of time.

With the emergence of the Maoists as the largest party in the Constituent Assembly, India's betting reference has changed. It is more interested in geopolitical gain against China rather than help the democratic process in Nepal. In order to preempt China's influence over the Maoists, India is now fully backing the Maoist rule. Surprisingly, it is even ready to review the 1950 agreement.

With Lok Sabha elections round the corner in India, foreign minister of India Pranab Mukherjee will obviously not jeopardize his chances of winning election by displeasing the leftists in West Bengal, who want to see their fellow comrades rule in Nepal. Why would Pranab scuttle his own chances of wining upcoming Lok Sabha election by backing the losers in Nepal? Both politically and personally, it does not make any sense.

It might be an unpleasant thing for some populists in Nepal and abroad to hear that the only institution that has the required strength and the motivation to counter the Maoist threat is the Nepal Army. But like it or not, that's the truth.

However, a million dollar question is, Will the Nepal Army stand against India's will and support the very people that once asked the army to obliterate the Maoists but later on not only joined hands with the Maoists but also set up inquiry commissions to investigate human right abuses committed by them?

For the generals within the army, unless they have a bigger role to play, supporting anyone from the democratic camp doesn't make any sense at this point in time. If the Maoists are somehow able to convince the generals, saluting Puspa Kamal Dahal would not be as painful as expected by many.

The political parties of yesteryears are in a very difficult situation now. And, the worst thing is that, it is them, who invited this trouble. Left-leaning civil society pundits and the so-called intellectuals that gather in coffee houses in Kathmandu are only part of the problem. Why would they want to be in the bad books by asking politicians to stay away from joining hands with people whose views are diagonally opposite, when the game is all about sharing the pie?

The politicians with in the NC and UML are surrounded by sycophants that do not dare to ask their masters to stick to the party's basic ideology and principles. If you are a real democrat, you dare to stand up and say that the party is deviating from its basic principles, when dilution of principles takes place, not justify the riding of populist bandwagon.

By openly threatening the media and expressing his desire to establish a people's republic, Puspa Kamal Dahal has already shown his true color. The democratic forces should immediately form an alliance if they want to survive politically. That alliance should then work relentlessly towards smoothing its relationship with the Army. Before Puspa Kamal Dahal and India convinces the Nepali Army to work with the Maoists, democratic forces should try wining the trust of the army.

Unless the NC, UML, and other parties that believe in multiparty democracy get unequivocal support from the army and convince India that they can overrun the Maoists, India will not change its betting preferences. India loves to ride the winning horse. Than Swe of Myanmar and Maumoon Abdool Gayyom of the Maldives are living examples.

The game is almost over. Act before it is too late to do anything!

Political violence: A crime that pays?

2008-05-26T10:01:00.001-04:00

The Maoist comrades did it again. The only difference this time around is that the man they killed belonged to their own party. By killing Ramhari Shrestha in cold blood, and that too under Ian Martin’s nose, the Maoists have made it crystal clear that, they can kill people anywhere they like.

Given the secretive nature of modus operandi of the Maoist cadres involved and the Maoist party’s reluctance to hand over the perpetrators to the law enforcement agencies, the motive behind the killing might never be fully revealed. However, from media reports it is quite clear that there was a financial motive behind the killing of Shrestha. If so, what are our revolutionaries up to? Interested in jumping to a petit-bourgeois class while proletariats that voted for them en masse are waiting for their masters to alter Nepali society, by overthrowing feudal structures?

While the Maoists’ “cold-blooded killing machine” periodically exterminates educators, journalists, and businessmen, the perpetrators of the crimes never get apprehended and punished. It has become a kind of policy of the CPN (Maoist) to seek forgiveness for the crimes committed by its ill-trained and irrational cadres and get away with it. Equally astonishing is the helplessness exhibited by the state.

Be it the murder of educator Mukti Nath Adhikari, journalists duo Dikendra Thapa and Jitendra Sah, or physical assault on noted physician Dr Gyanendra Giri, has any of the Maoist cadre involved in the crime been apprehended and punished? Living in a land, where the murderers of educators and journalists walk free must be, utterly unsatisfying and psychologically taxing.

Why are the Maoists still intimidating and killing people? Will they ever stop? The people are struggling to find answers to these questions. And, the answers you get now from the top-rung Maoist politicians may not match experiences that you might encounter in the future.

If you ask the Maoists about their revolution, the chances of telling us that the revolution will get over only after the establishment of the dictatorship of the proletariat is almost hundred percent. So, in the context of perpetual revolution, will the means adopted so far be abandoned? In a country like ours, where the end justifies the means, is it even necessary to abandon the radical violence and murderous path that the Maoists have been walking so far?

Mao, the great hero and icon of the Maoist ideologues in Nepal, shortly after taking control of Mainland China in 1949, ordered the killing of millions of his political enemies, including Christians. Tens of thousands were killed during the ‘Cultural Revolution’ and approximately fourteen to twenty million died from starvation during the “Great Leap Forward.”

Likewise, Josef Stalin is believed to have killed approximately thirteen million people in various purges.

Parade Magazine, in its “The world’s 10 worst dictators” list compiled in 2005, has Kim Jong Il as the worst dictator alive. While Kim, who has developed an extreme personality cult, ranked first, Chinese president Hu Jintao and former Cuban president Fiedel Castro ranked third and ninth worst dictators. The communist dictators by no means are the crusader of personal and political freedom.

Although there is no universal consensus, it is believed that more than one million people have been killed after the junior Kim took over North Korea in 1994. There are no exact numbers, but conservative estimates suggest that an estimated one hundred and fifty thousand North Koreans are performing forced labor in prison camps created to punish alleged political dissidents.

In China, the communist party still controls all media. Thousands of “Internet security agents” are employed by the state to monitor internet use. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese are serving “re-education” sentences in labor camps across China. The recipients of such “re-education” through labor sentence, according to Human Rights Watch, have no right to a hearing, no right to counselling, and no right to any kind of judicial determination of their case. The number of executions carried out in China every year is more than all other nations combined.

Fiedel Castro executed and imprisoned thousands of Christians in his early years. Even though he allowed gospel crusades to be televised on the national television network after the worldwide collapse of communism between 1989 and 1991, the political dissidents and Christians jailed prior to 1991 are yet to receive amnesty.

If we look at one-party communist states that are revered by the Nepali Maoists, radical violence and extermination of the political opponents is the most common and successful method of political and social control. It is a method adopted by the communist dictators to preempt dissident activities that could pose a threat to the survival of their regime. By asking the Maoists to renounce radical violence and killings, Nepali people are asking the Maoists to toss away the most trusted method of political and social control. When would the Maoists give up the most trusted and tested method of political and social control? Politically, it does not make any sense.

In the last week’s BBC Nepali Sewa’s “Sajha Sawal,” Gagan Thapa argued about the ethical and psychological issues associated with the housing of YCL cadres in camps. From an ethical point of view, his arguments were strong and valid. However, what upcoming charismatic leaders like Thapa should understand is that, the YCL is created with a political purpose to weaken the political opponents and administer social control. And, as long as that motive is served, the Maoists would never dismantle the YCL.

CPN (Maoist) leader Ram Bahadur Thapa while addressing an interaction program at Reporter’s club on May 24, without mincing words made is ample clear that his party was bent on expanding the YCL as they want to win all 240 seats in the next election. Instead of arguing on psychological issues associated with the housing of youth in camps, it is time to develop a strategy that would make the existence of the YCL politically unprofitable for the Maoists. Only then, they would be forced to downsize or dissolve the YCL altogether. Till then it shall stay put. The youth leaders like Gagan Thapa should gear his energy towards oiling the youth machine for counter mobilization. Counter mobilization is the best bet and the only game in town.

The Maoists should be allowed to form the government but only after amending the existing constitution. It is true that, given the horse-trading culture of legislatures we have, replacing the two-thirds majority required for forming or changing a government with a simple majority will lead to the frequent change of the government. But it is only through the replacement of the two-thirds majority required for forming or changing a government with a simple majority, the democratic forces in Nepal can stop the Maoists from seizing the state’s instrument of force and coercion and their immediate use to destroy or control all independent sources of power, such as the social and religious institutions, the professions, private businesses, schools and of course, the family.

It may not be ethically correct to ask for it now, especially not when you are a loser. But when you have ideologues like Ram Bahadur Thapa who want to strengthen the YCL to win all 240 seats in the upcoming elections, you got to do what you got to do to survive politically and save the nation from becoming a one-party communist state.

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